Abstract: This study aims to develop and validate an indicator system for assessing the effectiveness of public expenditure on education in Vietnam, conceptualizing effectiveness as a multi-layered policy transformation process rather than a linear relationship between spending levels and educational outcomes. Public expenditure effectiveness is conceptualized across five pillars: budgetary resources; allocation and operational mechanisms; direct manifestations of budget utilization; medium-term systemic changes; and long-term social impacts. Based on this framework, the study designs an indicator system and conducts a three-round Delphi process involving 62 experts in public finance, public administration, education economics, and policy evaluation. The indicator system demonstrates high structural consistency and strong inter-expert reliability, while content validity reflects the contested and context-dependent nature of policy measurement. The standardized system is refined to 27 indicators, designed for policy diagnosis rather than causal inference or performance ranking. The study provides a valuable measurement tool for analyzing and governing public expenditure on education in transitional institutional contexts.

Keywords: public expenditure effectiveness, education finance governance, policy-oriented indicator system, Delphi-based validation, performance-informed budgeting, public financial management, fiscal decentralization, content validity, Vietnam

Pages: 580-603