WSEAS Transactions on Information Science and Applications
Print ISSN: 1790-0832, E-ISSN: 2224-3402
Volume 23, 2026
(Special Issue: Systems Thinking for Sustainable Economic and Business development) The U.S. - China Trade War and Trade Diversion in ASEAN: Evidence from ASEAN-U.S. Trade Flows and Policy Implications for Vietnam
Authors: , ,
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Abstract: This study examines how the U.S.-China trade war has affected trade diversion in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), with particular attention to Vietnam. Combining qualitative analysis with an extended gravity model estimated by Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), the paper uses ASEAN-U.S. trade data for 2015-2024 to assess whether higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods redirected trade toward ASEAN. The results indicate a positive and statistically significant relationship between U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports and ASEAN-U.S. trade, confirming a trade diversion effect. Vietnam benefits from export expansion and supply-chain relocation, but faces constraints linked to logistics costs, imported-input dependence, origin risks, and trade remedy exposure. The paper argues that Vietnam should upgrade logistics, domestic supplier capacity, rules-of-origin control, and institutional integration to sustain export gains.
Keywords:
U.S. - China Trade War, ASEAN Economic Community, Gravity Model, Trade Diversion, Vietnam, Policy Implications
Pages: 506-514
DOI: 10.37394/23209.2026.23.42