Abstract: This work aims to estimate the impact of water resources, arable land, and several control variables on agricultural output in Iraq during 2004–2024. Econometric methodology, specifically the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. This method was used to estimate the relationship between variables based on semi-annual data. The results showed a cointegrating relationship among the variables and a significant long-term positive relationship between arable land (X1), agricultural credit (X4), central bank independence (X5), and the inflation rate (X7) on agricultural output (Y). Conversely, significant long-term negative relationships were found between water resources (X2), agricultural investment (X3), the parallel exchange rate (X6), the interest rate (X8), and agricultural output (Y) at a significance level of 1%. The study recommends preserving arable land by addressing salinity, halting erosion and desertification, preventing subdivision or use for residential or industrial purposes, and utilizing digitalization and sustainable modern management practices to protect it. It developed a strategy that adopts water management and includes modern irrigation methods, water recycling, well water regulation, rainwater and snow storage, and regulates domestic and industrial use, and adopts a disciplined long-term monetary policy whose tools are directed and guided by the results of its indicators to support inputs of agricultural and animal production factors.

Keywords: Water Management, Land Sustainability, Monetary Policy, Agricultural Investment, Agricultural Credit, Agricultural Production, ARDL Model

Pages: 467-480