Abstract: This study investigates the potential of China-Thailand agricultural trade by analyzing the competitive strength, influencing factors, and forecasting models for Thai rice exports to China from 1986 to 2021. Using econometric modeling and multiple regression analysis, factors influencing Thai rice exports to China were identified, including price, GDP, exchange rates, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) were used to analyze consumer preferences and selection factors for Thai rice. Results showed that Thai rice exports are strongly influenced by China’s GDP, exchange rates, and rice prices, with the COVID-19 pandemic acting as a significant shock. The AHP analysis recognized quality, cost, and accessibility factors as primary determinants of Chinese rice import preferences. Thailand’s comparative advantages arises from its exquisite rice varieties (Jasmine, Glutinous rice) and China’s sustained GDP increase. Nonetheless, rice exchange policies, lower production yields, and higher logistics costs pose tremendous constraints on export overall performance.

Keywords: China-Thailand Agricultural Trade, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Thai Rice Exports, Econometric Modeling, Export Forecasting, Consumer Preferences, Competitive Advantage

Pages: 338-347