WSEAS Transactions on Power Systems
Print ISSN: 1109-9445, E-ISSN: 2415-1513
Volume 11, 2016
An Approach Towards Real Time Short Term Load Forecasting Using Grey Index Models for Smart Grid Framework
Authors: , , ,
Abstract: Short term load forecasting (STLF), which aims to predict system load over an interval of one day or one week, plays a crucial role in the control and scheduling operations of a power system. Most existing techniques on short term load forecasting try to improve the performance by selecting different prediction models. However, the performance also rely heavily on the quality of training data. Although the grey forecasting model has been successfully adopted in various fields and has demonstrated promising results. This paper proposes three short term load forecasting models based on Grey System theory, namely Grey One Index Model (GM(1,1)), Grey Two Index Model using previous year similar day values as input along with previous hour values (GMY (1,2)) and Grey Two Index Model using previous day values as input along with previous hour values (GMD (1,2)) respectively. As shown in the results, the Grey model and its optimized models can increase the existing prediction accuracy. These models have a potential to be used for real time forecasting in smart grid network due to their negligible processing time.
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Pages: 147-155
WSEAS Transactions on Power Systems, ISSN / E-ISSN: 1109-9445 / 2415-1513, Volume 11, 2016, Art. #19