WSEAS Transactions on Mathematics
Print ISSN: 1109-2769, E-ISSN: 2224-2880
Volume 13, 2014
Forecasting Inbound Tourism Demand in Thailand with Grey Model
Authors: , , , ,
Abstract: Tourism has been a “smoke-free” and vital industry in many countries because it not only generates a plenty of quality employments but also offers a significant economic contribution to the country’s GDP. In order to make the tourism industry stably grown, understanding of its key determinants becomes critical. Various studies have argued that certain determinants were either biasedly measured or incompletely collected due to their intrinsically subjectivity and/or availability; up to date, no standard models have been generally applied for accurate forecasting the tourism demand in the industry. In this study, we propose Grey forecasting approaches to tackle forecasting tourist-demand accurate problems under the sparsely available tourism-demand data. In the empirical study of annual inbound-tourism demand in Thailand, the forecasting performance of the traditional Grey model joined with a modified Fourier series has been verified to be satisfactory with a relatively low mean absolute percentage error.
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Pages: 95-104
WSEAS Transactions on Mathematics, ISSN / E-ISSN: 1109-2769 / 2224-2880, Volume 13, 2014, Art. #10