The Simulation of the Water Temperature Rising Using ARIMA Models

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Abstract: The methodological approach to measuring the water temperature was historically developing. The economic importance of knowledge on flowing water temperature and thus the responsibility of the observer for the proper and reliable measurements has been known for over a century. In Slovakia, the water temperature in streams is measured according to sectorial technical environmental standards (Measurement of water levels, water temperature and ice phenomena on the surface flows) of 2005. Water temperature plays a key role from environmental, biochemical as well as chemical point of view. Increase in water temperature, e.g. during extreme and long-lasting heat waves and drought, can cause undesirable chemical and biochemical reactions. In the study we have focused on water temperature simulation in twenty one streams in the Slovak part of the Morava River basin. The aim was to assess the impact of the expected air temperature increase to a temperature rise of water in the streams. While processing the data, we used the time series of the average daily water temperature in selected gauging stations in the Morava River basin and the average daily air temperature measured in Bratislava-airport, for the period 2006–2011. Scenarios of extreme monthly air temperatures at the Bratislava-airport were compiled based on statistical analysis of daily air temperatures during 1951–2011. Extreme water temperatures were simulated based on a scenario of air temperature using several ARIMA models (Autoregressive Integrated models of Moving Averages). Results of the simulations show, that for increasing the maximum air temperature by 1°C, the water temperature may be increased by 0.7–0.9°C, depending on the model used.

WSEAS Transactions on Heat and Mass Transfer, ISSN / E-ISSN: 1790-5044 / 2224-3461, Volume 11, 2016, Art. #6

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Dana Halmova, Pavla Pekarova, Jan Pekar, Katarina Kucarova, "The Simulation of the Water Temperature Rising Using ARIMA Models," WSEAS Transactions on Heat and Mass Transfer, vol. 11, pp. 46-55, 2016, DOI:
Dana Halmova, Pavla Pekarova, Jan Pekar, Katarina Kucarova. The Simulation of the Water Temperature Rising Using ARIMA Models. WSEAS Transactions on Heat and Mass Transfer. 2016;11:46-55.
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