WSEAS Transactions on Mathematics
Print ISSN: 1109-2769, E-ISSN: 2224-2880
Volume 20, 2021
A Novel Spatiotemporal Method for Predicting Covid-19 Cases
Authors: ,
Abstract: Prediction methods are important for many applications. In particular, an accurate prediction for the
total number of cases for pandemics such as the Covid-19 pandemic could help medical preparedness by
providing in time a sucient supply of testing kits, hospital beds and medical personnel. This paper
experimentally compares the accuracy of ten prediction methods for the cumulative number of Covid- 19
pandemic cases. These ten methods include three types of neural networks and extrapola- tion methods based
on best fit quadratic, best fit cubic and Lagrange interpolation, as well as an extrapolation method proposed by
the second author. We also consider the Kriging and inverse distance weighting spatial interpolation methods.
We also develop a novel spatiotemporal prediction method by combining temporal and spatial prediction
methods. The experiments show that among these ten prediction methods, the spatiotemporal method has the
smallest root mean square error and mean absolute error on Covid-19 cumulative data for counties in New York
State between May and July, 2020.
Search Articles
Pages: 300-311
DOI: 10.37394/23206.2021.20.31