WSEAS Transactions on Systems and Control
Print ISSN: 1991-8763, E-ISSN: 2224-2856
Volume 15, 2020
A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of the Impact of Coronavirus(COVID19) and Social Distancing Effect
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Abstract: The spread of coronavirus across the world has become a major pandemic following the Spanish flu of 1918. A mathematical model of the spread of the coronavirus with social distancing effect is studied. A mathematical model of the spread of the virus form Wuhan in China to the rest of the world is suggested and analyzed. Another mathematical model with quarantine and social distancing factors is proposed and analyzed. Stability analysis for both models were carried out and data fitting was performed to predict the possible extinction of the disease. The disease free equilibria of both models were locally and globally asymptotically stable. The models suggest that with interventions such as lock downs and social distancing the extinction of the coronavirus can be achieved. Increasing social distancing could reduce the number of new cases by up to 30%. The paper presents a unique style of considering both theoretical and data analysis which is rarely studied in the literature. Questions arising from this study for further research include the right time to apply interventions and the state of preparedness in case of similar pandemics.
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Pages: 601-612
DOI: 10.37394/23203.2020.15.60