
Thus, the predictions obtained using Rules 1 and
2 for the 1st and 2nd order predictive models are
summarized in Table 5 and Table 6 in Appendix.
The corresponding geometric interpretations of the
forecasting results are presented in Figure 5.
At the end of Table 5 and Table 6 (Appendix), the
values of statistical criteria for assessing the
adequacy of predictive models are presented, [18]:
MSE (Mean Squared Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute
Percentage Error) and MPE (Mean Percentage
Error), which are calculated using the corresponding
formulas:
,
1
||
1
MAPE 100%
mtt
tt
FR
mR
,
,
where m is the length of the time series; Rt is the
actual indicator of the ground humidity at the t-th
moment of observation; Ft is the predict of Rt.
When interpreting these metrics, their
characteristics should be taken into account. For
example, MSE being one of the most common
metrics of forecast errors, allows to evaluate the
accuracy of the forecast in absolute units of
measurement, while MPE and MAPE show the
deviation as a percentage. In particular, MAPE can
be useful for comparing the forecast accuracy of
different models processing different ranges of data.
Fig. 5: Time series predictive models of 1st and 2nd
orders
As can be seen from Table 5 and Table 6 in
Appendix, the MSE indicators for the 1st and 2nd order
predictive models are equal to MSE1 = 49.16 and
MSE2 = 30.52, respectively. According to the MAPE
criterion, which demonstrates the percentage of the
forecast error in comparison with the actual values of
the time series, the identified errors MAPE1 = 6.44%
and MAPE2 = 2.53% also demonstrate the
preference of the 1st and 2nd order predictive models
over the exponential smoothing model, for which
MAPE = 9.18%. According to the MPE indicator,
which is a more informative criterion for assessing
the adequacy of the forecasting model, acceptable
“biases” of these predictive models were obtained as
MPE1 = -2.03% and MPE2 = -1.68%, which does not
exceed the normative 5%-th threshold to the left of
zero.
5 Conclusion
In the process of implementing IoT technology,
unique challenges arise that entail the use of signals
from multiple web-devices in real-time. To solve
them, it is necessary to develop new methods for
processing signals and information. The result
presented in the article is only one minor fragment
in the general methodology for processing sensory
signals carried out as part of the application of IoT
technology in precision agriculture. This or similar
methodology has the potential to enable an
intelligent IoT platform despite being overshadowed
by other aspects of IoT technology such as
communications architecture, sensor technologies,
and power management. The approach proposed in
this paper is capable of supporting predictive and
prescriptive analytical decisions by linking
previously collected data from smart sensors,
equipment, and other agricultural assets. This
approach facilitates the creation of tools for
monitoring the current state of crops and controlling
the growing environment and is aimed at increasing
the yield of the crop as a whole. By anticipating
undesirable situations, one can permanently
maintain a high level of care for the crop area.
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WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on INFORMATION SCIENCE and APPLICATIONS
DOI: 10.37394/23209.2024.21.35
Elchin Aliyev, Ramin Rzayev,
Asgar Almasov, Abulfat Rahmanov