Decision Support Systems in Stock Investment Problems
TOLGA TÜKEL1, UTKU KÖSE2,3, GÖZDE ÖZKAN TÜKEL4*
1Department of Computer Technologies,
Isparta University of Applied Sciences,
Isparta,
TURKEY
2Department of Computer Engineering,
Süleyman Demirel University,
Isparta,
TURKEY
3College of Engineering and Mines,
University of North Dakota,
Grand Forks, ND,
USA
4Department of Basic Sciences,
Isparta University of Applied Sciences,
Isparta,
TURKEY
*Corresponding Author
Abstract: - This study compiles decision support systems that aim to optimize financial decision processes by
examining the literature studies targeting stock investments. The review encompasses a range of methodologies
and applications, from traditional approaches such as Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory, Black-Litterman,
and Single Index models to artificial intelligence-based techniques. In detail, the contributions of Decision
Support Systems to stock portfolio construction and portfolio optimization processes along with comparative
analyses between these systems are scrutinized. The review also aims to enable researchers and practitioners to
be engaged in portfolio optimization with a framework for future investigations in areas such as historical data
analysis, future price movement prediction, assessment of risk factors, and determination of optimal portfolio
distribution. Furthermore, it seeks to enhance the understanding of decision support systems employed in
portfolio optimization, facilitating a more comprehensive grasp of their utility within stock investments.
Key-Words: - Decision support systems, stock investment, portfolio optimization, modern portfolio theory.
Received: August 29, 2022. Revised: October 2, 2023. Accepted: October 13, 2023. Published: November 3, 2023.
1 Introduction
Stocks are financial instruments that companies
benefit from to meet their financial needs, [1]. A
stock portfolio is a collection of specific stocks
selected from many financial assets available in the
market, [2]. While creating the portfolio, we decide
which stocks will be chosen and how many shares
will be allocated to these stocks. The financial value
of the portfolio depends on the prices of the stocks it
contains and can be continuously monitored by the
investor. Portfolio optimization usually specifies the
amount of investment that should be invested in
selected stocks as a proportion of available
resources, [3]. In this context, companies may need
to choose among many parameters, such as risk
tolerance, return expectations, liquidity needs, and
other factors. In this process, investors aim to select
an appropriate combination of the securities in
which they invest. While making these
combinations, investors should consider many
factors, such as the number of companies invested
in, the percentage of investment in which company,
and the correlation between the invested companies.
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Researchers usually try to solve this confusion using
computer applications or mathematical models.
However, the variety of investment strategies and
the intricacy of investment choices have consistently
grown over the past two decades. This rise has
revealed the need for comprehensive and extensible
financial decision support systems (DSS) that
include the main approaches to investment
decisions.
DSS is a computer-based tool used during the
decision-making process for a company or user, [4].
DSS helps decision-makers in the decision-making
process with its features, such as analyzing data by
processing, modeling decisions in different
scenarios, and predicting the consequences of future
actions. These systems can collect data from various
sources, such as business data, financial
information, and market research results, and
analyze this data to provide accurate information to
decision-makers. DSS helps managers or investors
make faster, more effective, and more informed
decisions in the decision-making process.
The predominant DSS applications finance
involves crafting choices for financial audit and
project portfolios, overseeing fixed-income
portfolios, handling credit risk within home
mortgage portfolios, and refining investment policy
and strategy optimization, [5]. Therefore, DSS is a
helpful mechanism for choosing the most suitable
portfolio according to the investor's sector among
different portfolios. These systems determine an
optimal asset allocation, considering an investor's
risk tolerance, return targets, and other constraints.
This type of optimization often requires statistical
analysis of the returns and risks of assets in a
particular portfolio. Using these systems can
increase an investor's ability to maximize potential
returns and minimize risk.
In this study, we examine the existing research
in stock investments for portfolio optimization and
place the focus on DSS structures aimed at
optimizing financial decision processes. In Section
2, we summarize current research on creating an
optimal portfolio for stock investments with an
overview and present DSS studies aimed at
optimizing financial decisions in this context.
Section 3 outlines the objectives, methodologies,
and advantages of DSS structures employed in
portfolio optimization within the context of stock
investments. Moreover, the pivotal role of DSS in
formulating and managing stock investment
portfolios is elaborated. DSS structures elucidate
how researchers and practitioners can make more
effective decisions in various domains, such as
historical data analysis, forecasting future price
movements, assessing risk factors, and determining
optimal portfolio allocations. Additionally, we (or
the authors/researchers/experts) expound upon the
contributions of these structures to the financial
decision-making process. In the Section “Analysis
and Final Thoughts”, the importance of using DSS
is emphasized to create an optimal portfolio in stock
investments. It also provides an overview of areas
where future research could provide further
understanding and in-depth analysis. The results
show that DSS is an effective tool for optimizing
financial decision processes and achieving better
results.
2 Literature Survey Overview
Portfolio optimization is a process that assists
individual or institutional investors in making
optimal investment decisions by considering their
risk and return expectations. In this process,
investors must make a series of decisions to
construct the most suitable portfolio among a set of
financial instruments. These decisions include
choosing which financial instruments to have,
determining the allocation percentages, selecting the
quantity of each tool, and deciding when to
purchase and sell. In the pioneering studies, [6], and,
[7], where portfolios are selected according to
certain conditions, it has been argued that by
researching the relationships between the returns of
securities comprising an investment portfolio and
combining securities in a portfolio that do not have
a total positive correlation between their returns,
non-systematic risk can be reduced without a
decrease in expected return, [8]. The author also led
the way in measuring security and portfolio risk
using the statistical measure known as variance. In
the mean-variance model, the objective function is
determined to maximize the expected return for a
certain risk level or to minimize the chance for a
certain expected return level, [9]. The problem
corresponds to a mathematically non-linear, multi-
objective optimization problem with linear
constraints and has more than one solution method,
[10]. For the Markowitz mean-variance problem,
which seeks a solution to a non-linear objective
function with linear constraints, one solution is the
Kuhn-Tucker method, which can be adapted to
computer programming languages, [11], [12]. This
method has been extensively studied in the portfolio
optimization literature, [10], [12], [13], [14], [15],
[16], [17], [18], [19], [20], [21], [22]. The portfolio
selection, optimization, and management model has
been rapidly developed based on the mean-variance
model. In studies, [23], [24], [25], [26], [27], and
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[28], the authors significantly developed the theory
of portfolio selection and management by
considering various factors that investors face in the
real world. They have integrated real-life constraints
into the model, such as the proportion of a portfolio
comprised of risky assets that an investor decides
upon, borrowing-lending situations, short sales,
transaction costs, and taxation. In, [29], the author
researched borrowing and lending rates, while the
author in, [30], investigated personal taxation,
uncertain inflation, and off-market assets. In, [31],
and, [32], the authors developed the short-sale
theme further. The single-index model and the
Multi-Index Models address the complications
brought by the increasing number of securities in
determining the expected return and variance of
optimal portfolios, [24], [33]. The Single Index
Model developed by William Sharpe is a
methodology employed to gauge the performance of
risky assets within a portfolio. This model facilitates
portfolio managers in quantifying the returns
obtained relative to the risk undertaken. Often
synonymous with the Sharpe Ratio, this metric
delineates the relationship between the achieved
return of a portfolio and its associated risk level. A
higher Sharpe Ratio indicates superior risk
management proficiency on the part of the portfolio
manager, [34]. A mathematical model for the
portfolio optimization problem was presented by the
authors of the Black-Scholes model, which is
famous for option pricing, [35].
Equity portfolio optimization aids investors in
determining how to allocate their assets to maximize
expected returns while minimizing risk. Monte
Carlo simulations are commonly employed in
solving these optimization problems. The Monte
Carlo simulation is a statistical computation method
that uses many random samples to achieve results.
In this simulation, random weights are assigned to
equity instruments, ensuring the total of the weights
equals 1. The expected return and standard deviation
are calculated and stored for each combination of
these weights. Weights are then changed again,
assigned randomly, and the process is repeated. This
gives investors valuable insights into how their
portfolios will perform under different scenarios,
equipping them to make more informed investment
decisions, [36]. Monte Carlo simulation methods
continue to be developed in various DSS using other
programming languages today, [22], [37], [38], [39],
[40].
Studies on the mean-variance model have given
rise to the Financial Asset Pricing Model, a
progression that is both a mathematical and logical
extension of the original model, [41]. To address
some of the issues encountered in the mean-variance
model, Black and Litterman made some
improvements to this model and presented a model
named after themselves. This model was first
introduced in the 1990 article Asset Allocation:
Combining Investor Views with Market
Equilibrium by Black and Litterman and was
expanded in subsequent studies in 1991 and 1992,
[42], [43], [44]. The Black-Litterman approach lets
investors modify the equilibrium returns of equities
based on their perspectives, utilizing the Bayesian
methodology. This model has two primary
characteristics that set it apart from the traditional
mean-variance method. One feature is that investors
can specify their expectations on returns for any
number of securities they desire. Second, investors
take the equilibrium market returns as prior
estimates of security returns and integrate investor
views with this prior information set, [45].
"Numerous studies have been conducted from the
past to the present on portfolio optimization with the
Black-Litterman model, as well as comparisons of
this model with Markowitz's model, [1], [9], [41],
[45], [46], [47], [48], [49], [50]. In the literature,
these models considered traditional methods, do not
involve the direct use of a DSS. However, they have
formed the basis for many studies related to
portfolio optimization, where the DSS assists
investors in the decision-making process.
The diversity in investment strategies and the
growing intricacy of investment choices have
persistently risen, necessitating robust and scalable
financial decision support systems that cover the
primary methodologies for making investment
decisions. In three reviews conducted in, [51], [52]
and, [53], the authors examined about 670 published
DSS applications among the published applications,
providing information about the types, purposes,
sectors, and technologies of these applications. The
researchers introduce DSS in general and address
topics such as what these systems are, how they
work, and what types of decisions they can be used
for. Their reviews showed that DSS applications are
used in various sectors, including finance,
production, healthcare, education, and public
administration. DSS applications most frequent
decision processes were forecasting, planning,
auditing, and management decisions. They
concluded that the rate of DSS usage in the finance
sector was progressing slower than in other
industries and was around an average of 10%.
DSS uses mathematical models and algorithms
to help investors optimally manage their portfolios.
These models assist investors in making the best
investment decisions by considering factors like risk
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tolerance, return expectations, and other criteria.
Palma-dos-Reis and Zahedi (1999) have used DSS
to explore and investigate the influence of investors'
personal traits on their use of models when making
investment decisions, [5]. In, [54], it is utilized the
DSS by integrating decision analysis and investment
evaluation techniques to assist investors. This
system guides in constructing an investment model
for the Shanghai Stock Exchange and making
optimal decisions. In, [55], and, [56], different
researchers introduced a DSS each had developed
for portfolio optimization problems. The authors
propose a multi-criteria decision-making model
based on the PROMETHEE method to select
superior stocks in the stock market and apply this
model to the Tehran Stock Exchange as a real-world
case in, [57]. As a stock selection strategy, it is
developed two DEA models for the Taiwan Stock
Exchange in, [58], while it is implemented a
prototype named MISMIS for the Hang Seng Index
in, [59]. The DSS introduced in, [60], is a design
that transforms stock votes from online communities
into investment decisions, and the portfolios created
with this system clearly outperform the market
benchmark and other funds in terms of performance
over a specific observation period. In, [61], the
authors developed an adaptive trading model that
intelligently recognizes trading signals and aids
investors in their decisions, utilizing techniques like
neural networks, particle swarm optimization, and
denoising. Simulations showed that traders could
achieve higher returns using this decision support
system, highlighting the advantages of incorporating
adaptive and intelligent decision-making into
forecasts. In the literature, many studies have been
conducted using multi-criteria decision-making
techniques such as AHP (Analytic Hierarchy
Process), TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference
by Similarity to Ideal Solution), ELECTRE
(Elimination and Choice Expressing Reality), and
MOORA (Multi-Objective Optimization on the
basis of Ratio Analysis), [62], [63], [64], [65], [66],
[67], [68], [69].
In recent years, deep learning techniques such
as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs),
Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Recurrent
Neural Networks (RNNs), machine learning, and
genetic algorithms have been applied to complex
problems in financial markets, such as stock market
investment. Thanks to their capabilities in
processing large amounts of data and learning, these
techniques have been used in predicting stock
prices, portfolio management, and risk analysis.
These approaches can potentially overcome
challenges previously addressed by traditional
financial models, [3], [47], [48], [60], [61], [70],
[71], [72], [73], [74], [75].
The studies presented here provide only a few
examples of the use of DSS in portfolio
optimization. However, a wide array of approaches
and models are available in this field, constantly
evolving. The need to understand and address the
complexity of financial analysis has led to a
continuous increase in research within the literature.
Future studies should delve more extensively into
integrating DSS more effectively to achieve more
accurate results and contribute to further enhancing
portfolio management.
3 The Utilization of Decision Support
Systems in Stock Market Scenarios
The portfolio optimization problem is one of the
most studied classic topics in computational finance.
This optimization process involves a series of
mathematical models and methods investors use to
decide how to allocate their portfolios most
effectively. In particular, Harry Markowitz's
Modern Portfolio Theory is considered one of the
cornerstones in this field. The Single Index Model
emerges as one of the fundamental building blocks
of portfolio optimization, as does the Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM). On the other hand, more
sophisticated approaches like the Black-Litterman
model allow investors to make more customized
portfolio forecasts, taking into account market
equilibriums and specific views. This model is
based on the fundamentals of Modern Portfolio
Theory and combines market data with investors'
risk tolerance and expectations to create the most
optimized portfolios, [76]. Meanwhile, Monte Carlo
simulations assist investors in testing various
investment scenarios and risk levels. Accordingly,
these simulations allow investors to simulate market
conditions and investment scenarios for a particular
period and subsequently optimize their portfolios.
With technological advancements, DSS used in
portfolio optimization have diversified and evolved.
Especially in recent years, technological innovations
in this field have paved the way for the emergence
of more complex and sophisticated decision
mechanisms. A review of the literature reveals that
numerous DSSs have been developed and utilized
for portfolio optimization. These systems offer in-
depth analyses to investors and portfolio managers,
helping them find the most appropriate balance
between expected returns and risk. These new
approaches, which are far more advanced than
traditional methods, integrate both financial and
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mathematical models to maximize the potential of
portfolio management. In the following, we describe
some prominent DSS found in the literature and
review which methods and how these systems are
used.
The authors conducted a study in which they
developed a flexible and intelligent financial DSS
design and examined the personalizing mechanisms
of this system through laboratory experiments, [5].
The findings indicate that the user's characteristics
(particularly risk aversion and gender) significantly
influence the use of the DSS and model selection.
However, the generalizability of these results could
be improved, and further experiments with a larger
sample size are planned. The research presents
significant initial steps on how a financial DSS can
be personalized based on user characteristics.
The author introduced an intelligent DSS that
combines decision analysis with traditional
investment evaluation procedures to assist decision-
makers in making better investment decisions, [54].
The system offers tools like the influence diagram
generator to help model the decision problem while
providing personalized solutions considering the
decision-maker's risk attitude and preferences. What
sets this system apart is its ability to individualize
traditional investment decisions and analyses by
considering the decision maker's risk stance and
preferences. Although the system has been tested on
the Shanghai Stock Exchange, there is a need for
extensive testing and evaluation of its adaptability to
other stock markets.
In, [55], the authors present an information and
knowledge exchange framework focused on how
agents can exchange information and knowledge to
solve common problems collaboratively.
Specifically designed for stock trading, the Multi-
Agent System for Stock Trading (MASST) system
architecture employs an active blackboard to
facilitate dynamic information exchange among
agents. This structure ensures that agents use their
resources efficiently while successfully responding
to user requests and unforeseen situations.
In, [56], the authors designed a DSS using genetic
algorithms to make the decision-making process in
portfolio management easier and faster. This model
presents investors with different scenarios derived
from complex data. The decision support system,
MISMIS was developed for financial data
predictions, [59]. This system allows investors to
create complex prediction models in a step-by-step
manner. Results from each model can be used as
inputs for the next one. This multi-level approach
provides for breaking down complex models into
more understandable sub-models, making it easier
to detect and correct potential errors. Its
effectiveness was demonstrated in an application on
the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, and financial
consultants agreed that this system is an effective
decision-support tool for stock market investments.
In a system developed in, [60], the authors utilizes
the crowd’s wisdom, simulations have shown a
123% performance increase in investments, [60].
This proves that the system significantly
outperforms market indices, offering investors the
potential to harness crowd data effectively. In, [61],
DSS methods for portfolio optimization using
particle swarm optimization and artificial neural
networks are developed, and multi-objective genetic
algorithms and goal programming are employed in,
[77], It is utilized multivariate linear regression in,
[70], and the LightGBM machine learning model, it
is applied the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
and PHP programming language in, [72], while it is
adopted genetic algorithms in, [47].
The research in, [48], presents an algorithm for
portfolio optimization as an information service. It
compares three models: Black-Litterman,
Markowitz, and equal-weighted, using a limited
asset set and their historical returns. The Black-
Litterman model, informed by historical data, is
favored in simulations.
The authors propose a DSS for creating a
portfolio with high return and low risk in the
Singapore stock market, using the trend ratio
assessment indicator and the global-best guided
quantum-inspired tabu search algorithm (GNQTS)
with a quantum-NOT gate in, [78]. It is proposed a
comprehensive DSS focused on the three main
aspects of stock market investment: stock price
forecasting, stock selection, and portfolio
optimization in, [3]. Artificial neural networks and
fundamental analysis are used for price predictions;
differential evolution is employed for stock
selection; and genetic algorithms combined with
statistical analysis are utilized for portfolio
construction. Experiments were conducted on stocks
within the S&P 500, and the results demonstrate that
the proposed system outperforms existing methods
in various scenarios. Another study showed a mean-
variance portfolio investment problem in a
stochastic environment was addressed in the same
year, and a stochastic rule-based DSS was proposed
to select the best portfolio without directly solving
the optimization problem, [73].
In studies, [79], [80], [81], [82], the authors
focus on the development of various expert systems
that support the decision-making process for optimal
portfolio selection. These studies indicate that these
systems provide guidance to investors on how to
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optimize their portfolios, evaluate potential risks,
and predict the possible returns of different
investment scenarios.
The author conducted the first study using a
large-scale predictive decision-making approach for
cryptocurrency portfolio allocation in, [74]. The
research treated price predictions as a time series
forecasting problem and defined portfolio allocation
as a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)
issue. The Prophet Forecasting Model (PFM) was
employed to make time-series price predictions, and
the CLUS-MCDA algorithm was expanded for the
asset allocation phase. An experiment analyzing
over 70 cryptocurrencies was conducted to verify
the method's reliability, The results indicate that the
proposed decision support system is a trustworthy
tool for real-world big data challenges.
Recommendations include verifying time series
forecasting models, linking to a real-time database,
incorporating natural language processing and
semantic analysis into the methodology, and
enhancing the algorithm with neural network
inference for more accurate and realistic outcomes.
When examining the sources in the literature, we
observe that a significant portion of the stock
portfolio optimization problems use Multi-Criteria
Decision-Making techniques as their DSS
structures. These techniques enable investors to
apply a scientific and systematic approach to
complex investment decisions by considering
different criteria and constraints. Specifically,
decision-makers prefer the Analytic Hierarchy
Process in the prioritization process between
criteria; they use TOPSIS to determine the
proximity of alternative stocks to the ideal solution,
and they favor Vikor to reveal optimal compromise
solutions. Methods like ELECTRE and
PROMETHEE also stand out with their capacity to
rank and eliminate investment alternatives. The
integrated use of these multi-criteria methods allows
investors and portfolio managers to make more
informed decisions under different scenarios and
variables.
Various software and package programs are
utilized for the DSS structures used in stock
portfolio optimization. Investors frequently prefer
Microsoft Excel and its additional Solver tool for
basic optimization tasks. MATLAB is employed to
implement complex algorithms, while Python,
enriched with libraries such as pandas and numpy, is
becoming increasingly popular for financial analysis
and optimization. The R language stands out for
financial analysis with "Performance Analytics"
packages. Eviews and Stata are commonly used for
econometric analyses and time series. For large-
scale optimization challenges, modeling systems
like GAMS and AMPL are chosen, and MPT-based
specialized software addresses tailored needs.
Optimization solvers like CPLEX and Gurobi are
employed to solve intricate portfolio optimization
issues. These tools offer features that cater to the
diverse aspects of portfolio management.
4 Analysis and Final Thoughts
The complexity and uncertainty of stock market
investments force investors to make difficult
decisions. However, the rising role of technology in
the finance sector offers new methods with the
potential to overcome these challenges. In
particular, technologies such as natural language
processing, machine learning, and big data analysis
have significantly advanced financial data analysis
and market movement predictions. Advanced
techniques, such as evolutionary algorithms,
simulations, and the Monte Carlo method, are used
to predict the possible distributions of risk and
return. Combined with classic models like
Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory, these
techniques provide investors with critical
information to optimally allocate their portfolios.
The Minimum Variability-Minimum Risk method
aims to take on the least risk while minimizing
portfolio volatility. The Sectoral Analysis strategy
allows investors to diversify their risks by investing
in different sectors. With the Factor Analysis
method, investors can minimize risks by considering
the factors in their portfolios.
DSS enables investors to utilize these
techniques and strategies effectively. DSS guides
investors in investing in the most suitable sectors
and factor combinations. At the same time,
integrating advanced methods such as decision tree
analysis, multi-criteria decision-making, artificial
neural networks, and genetic algorithms optimize
the portfolio creation process for investors. The
study in, [3], reveals that DSS provides investors the
opportunity to make more informed and strategic
decisions. With the rapid advancements in
technology, research on portfolio optimization is
continuously evolving and being updated.
Furthermore, the rise of crypto assets in
financial markets necessitates the adoption of new
approaches in portfolio optimization strategies. Risk
assessment methods specially developed for these
highly volatile assets enable investors to make their
crypto-asset investments more informedly.
Additionally, the growing popularity of sustainable
investments has highlighted the integration of
environmental, social, and governance criteria into
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portfolio optimization processes. These criteria
allow investors to consider their social and
environmental impacts while maximizing financial
returns.
Studies indicate that these tools and methods
offered by modern technology provide investors
with the potential to make more informed and
effective investment decisions. To keep pace with
these rapid changes in the investment world, there is
a need for continuously updated and adaptive
methods.
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