From Informing Users about Disasters to Issuing a Forecast of

Possible Impacts and Recommendations

EVGENII VIAZILOV 1

Russian National Oceanographic Data Centre

1 Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information –

World Data Centre (RIHMI-WDC)

6, Koroleva St., 249035 Obninsk

RUSSIA

Abstract: Increase in the number of disasters requires the development of hydrometeorological support, the use

of a new paradigm - forecast the possible impacts of disasters on the population and enterprises, and the

transition from the concept of informing users to a recommendatory concept. The problem of raising the

awareness of enterprise heads and the public by creating a decision support system is considered. The purpose

of the research is to justify the need to create the decision support system in case of disasters, determine the

place of the system in hydrometeorological support of enterprises and population. In the field of

hydrometeorology collected and formalized materials on the impacts of disasters on enterprises and the

population, recommendations for making decisions. Database of local threshold values of disaster indicators

for enterprises and their activities depending on season, geographical area, and climate zone has been

prepared.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Disasters, Impacts, Hydrometeorological support

Received: August 23, 2021. Revised: April 21, 2022. Accepted: May 21, 2022. Published: June 28, 2022.

1 Introduction

The threat to sustainable life on our planet is due to

significant increase in the number and power of

manifestations of various disasters, climatic

changes. How to prevent or reduce the negative

consequences of disasters? The prospective

development of hydrometeorological support

(GMS) provides for the transition from the concept

of informing users about disasters to concept of

recommendations delivery [1, p. 49]. For

management purposes, it is necessary, to have

assessments of climatic changes impacts on the

state of environment - vegetation, soil, water,

wildlife, population [2, 3, 4, and 5].

The main problems of adaptation to disaster are

the untimeliness of communicating information

about disaster to enterprises head and the public, the

inadequacy of assessing the situation at enterprises

on base digital hydrometeorological indicators of

disasters, and the lack of systematize information

about the impacts and recommendations for making

decisions. Very few real systems would help

decision makers (DM). Moreover, such systems are

designing either for one specific object or for one

disaster. They only warn enterprises heads of

possible disasters. It is necessary to collect,

systematize, classify, and formalize them, present

information on impacts of disasters on population

and enterprises, recommendations for DMs.

Currently, IT is developing both in scientific,

design organizations, and in enterprises. Enterprises

actively automate business processes in which it is

necessary to take into account information about

disasters. It is no longer enough to bring

information about the disasters to the DM, it is

necessary that the indicators of disasters be

included directly in the implementation of business

processes. It need to formalize business processes

that define the organization works to increase the

hydrometeorological safety of the population and

enterprises, ranging from the identification of local

threshold values of the parameters of the

environment and to the adoption of decisions based

on observed, prognostic and climatic parameters.

The aim of the article is to substantiate the need

of Decision support system (DSS) creation for

various disasters, determine of the place of GMS

system, as well as the consideration of approaches

to them creation.

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2 From talk of adaptation to decision

support automation

Addressing adaptation to climate change has

received considerable attention, both at the

international and at national levels. In 2014, the

World Meteorological Congress declared

"Projection of impacts of disasters on enterprises to

become one of the activities of the National

Hydrometeorological Services".

The principle of the comprehensive adaptation

of engineering and technical solutions in the

techno-sphere to natural and climatic threats should

be the basis for the strategic approach of awareness

mitigation natural and technological threats [6].

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

considers adaptation to disasters to be the focus of

research on climate change. One of the sub-goals of

the World Climate Research Program, implemented

under the auspices of WMO, is the provision of

products aimed at assisting in planning and

decision-making on management in climate-

sensitive sectors of the economy.

In France a national adaptation plan has drawn

up, which includes the following characteristics: list

of actions, description of the situation, main

contractor, partners, tools, deadline, and indicators

of the implementation [7]. In 2019 in Russia was

prepared and approved by the Russian Government

National Action Plan of the first phase of adaptation

to climate change for the period until 2022 [8].

There are many works dealing with organizational

issues of adaptation [9, 10, and 11].

National hydrometeorological services of

various countries assess the damage of past disaster,

the effectiveness of the use of hydrometeorological

information in various sectors of the economy.

They are excluding the issuing of recommendations

for support decisions, considering it the prerogative

of DMs. They know better what and how to do, and

hydrometeorologists know what consequences these

or other disasters can lead. Need is not just a

numerical forecast of indicators disaster, and it need

to know what can happen as a result of impacts of

disasters (injury, death, disease), and what to do in

the form of recommendations (evacuate population,

take shelter in buildings). All that needs to done is

to help DMs get information about an impending

disaster and give information about possible

impacts, including losses and recommendations to

support decisions, the cost of preventive actions.

Mankind will be able to adapt to disasters and

changes in the level of the oceans only thanks to

well thought out, correctly organized at all levels of

government, and, most importantly, timely

preventive actions for predicted consequences for

each object and type of activity.

In many climatic atlases, reference books, books

on GMS of various sectors of the economy, there is

at least some information about the impacts of

disasters on economic objects. A list of proposed

impacts and recommendations is usually giving for

individual sectors of the economy [12, 13, 14, 15,

16, and 17]. Emercom of Russia is prepared leaflets

for the public about possible impacts and what

needs to done in these situations. These leaflets are

systematizing only for some disasters (earthquakes,

floods, tsunamis, etc.). They do not always take into

account the categories of data used (observations,

forecast and climate), the types of activities and

properties of specific objects, therefore they are

poorly used. Moreover, they do not provide an

economic justification for the recommended

solutions. The disadvantages of these leaflets are

also the vagueness of many recommendations; their

fragmentation and incompleteness; a significant

amount of information in directories due to their

natural orientation to a wide range of specialists and

conditions; the variety of disaster that affects

various enterprises. At present, there are no

classifications of impacts on enterprises, population

and recommendations for decision-making.

The point is not that there is not enough

knowledge about disasters and their impacts on

enterprises and the population, but that the DM

cannot develop a complete list of actions

(decisions) based on available information about

disaster. On generalization of experience affects

small repeatability disasters. With some phenomena

(for example, tsunamis, earthquakes), DMs

sometimes meets only once during the entire period

of work in his post. The accumulation of knowledge

on taking into account the influence of the

environment on economic objects is basing on a

generalization of actions experience of enterprises

in the conditions of disasters. This experience is

sometimes recording in scientific publications,

instructions, memos, but most often may meet only

in the media. Knowledge accumulates over the

years, costs considerable resources for

formalization, have been turned out to be

unmanageable and is not using fully. The period of

gaining experience enterprises heads is quite long.

Leaving the organization, the head takes away with

him most of this knowledge.

With disaster, the chances of survival among the

population depend on strict compliance with the

requirements of local administrations, confidence in

knowledge of the situation, reasonableness,

initiative, discipline, a desire to survive, the ability

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to apply existing knowledge, act according to plan,

be able to analyze and take into account your

mistakes. Unfortunately, warnings about disasters

are not always taken seriously population, and DM.

If warning received, then population does not

always make preventive actions, because not aware

of the possible consequences of disasters.

Understandings of disaster risk and impact

prediction go beyond the competence of National

hydrometeorological services. In recent decades in

Russia, the so-called “effective managers”, which

have been involved in the leadership of enterprises,

are most often not specialists in a specific subject

area, and even more so for hydrometeorology.

Therefore, it can be affirm, that National

hydrometeorological services are best prepared to

predict impacts in partnership with DMs.

Successful forecasting of impacts requires close

cooperation with specialists from the Emercom of

Russia, local administrations, scientific

organizations, business leaders, having expert

knowledge, resources, and integrated data. Services,

related to impacts, cannot to provide one

Roshydromet [18].

The usual methods for identifying disasters,

sending and using information about disaster,

taking into account the consequences of disaster are

no longer sufficient to reduce or prevent them. For

the organization of the adaptation and operational

events, including the restoration of the

infrastructure of life settlements and the economy

after disaster, requires the development of a

decision support system to assist DM. Studies of the

possibilities of creating DSS are carried out in

various industries abroad and in Russia [19, 20, 21].

Separate software packages have created. Work is

underway to formalize and automate the accounting

of environmental impacts, on the population and

objects of the economy [22, 23].

The report of the Ad Hoc Working Group on

Climate Change and Health "Protecting health in

terms of climate change impacts on the

environment" (2010) within the framework of the

European Regional Framework for Action are

proposed to consider the development of an

information platform for collection of information.

The information platform should contain practical

tools for assessing health impacts, preparation of

mitigation and adaptation actions; of impacts

assessment the of climate change; of early warning

of disaster and potential threats; a description of

long-term trends related to climate, health impacts,

and response actions applied. This proposal should

be considering in a wider range of impacts

assessment and adaptation to climate change - not

only on human health, but also on various sectors of

economic activity.

The DSS will allow evaluating the possible

impacts of disasters. Impacts are the basis for

planning proactive preventive actions, the timely

implementation of which can reduce the number of

accidents, unscheduled repairs, minimize

downtime, increase safety, and minimize negative

impacts on the environment, insurance costs and

other. DSS can give out the impacts for various

disasters - river spills, droughts, floods, and

contribute to the adaptation of population to them.

Information about in impacts and

recommendations should be using in the

development of global, regional and sectoral

development plans and preparations for disasters.

The timely adoption of specific strategies, plans,

actions to mitigate the impacts of climate change is

an important condition for the sustainable

development of regions in a changing climate. They

can not only reduce the negative impacts of the

manifestations of climate variability, but also bring

additional benefits for economic development.

In regulatory documents must be provide actions

related to the prevention of the impacts of disasters

on the work of transport, agriculture and other

sectors of the economy, as well as the activities of

state bodies with the aim of ensuring the safety of

the population during the period of disasters. There

are detailed documents only for the individual

disaster, for example, in Russia for the case of

fishing from ice developed a document on

cooperation of several ministries organizations [24].

The main questions, which arises in these

situations, are the mandatory (or not) use of the

system in the case of a disaster, and who will be

responsible for the consequences of decision-

making in case of losses at the enterprise? That is,

all the rules of conduct for disasters introduced in

the DSS should maximize the use of existing

regulatory and methodological documents;

recommendations must checked by experts.

3 Where and how to use DSS?

For the functioning of the monitoring system of

disasters is necessary to obtain information about

the status of hydrometeorological conditions on a

single information platform and interfacing with all

existing and prospects measuring systems of

collection, transfer, processing and storage of

environment data. Before issuing a forecast of

possible impacts, it is necessary to define disaster

indicators based on local threshold values for a

particular enterprise and type of activity, and then,

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depending on the danger level identified, issue

information on the impacts and recommendations

for making decisions, Fig. 1.

Fig.1. The schema of DSS work

Knowing of values of indicators characterizing

the disasters, can get information about the possible

impacts, knowing the goals, standing before the

DMs (the safety of persons or property) may issue a

set of recommendations for decision-making in

order to reduce or prevent of possible impacts.

Decision support tools must be following:

 Servicing enterprises at all stages of its life cycle

(development forecast, planning, design, operation,

decommissioning);

 Infrastructure management of regions, taking

into account climate change and the forecast of

disasters based on spatial planning of enterprises

location;

 Control of technological modes of equipment

during the period of disaster (prediction of

deviations of performance indicators of equipment);

 Reduction of unplanned downtime of

enterprises, equipment, in connection with

disasters;

 Solving problems of optimizing energy

consumption, technological processes, various types

of activities, taking into account climate change and

weather forecasts;

 Preventive diagnostics of various activities that

are impacted by disasters;

 Planning and carrying out maintenance work of

the equipment, taking into account the impact of

disasters on it;

 Estimates of production losses, including

working time during the period of disaster;

 Obtaining information on possible impacts and

recommendations for making decisions.

Four stages of automate the development of

GMS of enterprises, public authorities and the

public are selected. These are informational stage;

informational and advising stage; stage of semi-

automatic and stage of automatic management with

use hydrometeorological information.

At present, GMS of enterprises, government

bodies and the public are at the informational stage

of their development, i.e., the Roshydromet

observational units measure (observation) the

environmental parameters, identify disaster and

bring information about them DMs by all available

means. The heads on enterprises himself makes all

decisions on conducting preventive actions or

improving the efficiency of business processes

using hydrometeorological information.

The informational and advisory stage of

providing of information to heads is in its infancy.

At this stage the heads not only receive

hydrometeorological data and information for

disasters, but and from of DSS receive information

on the possible impacts of disasters on activities of

enterprises and recommendations to prevent or

minimize their impacts, in form in a convenient for

its perception. On this stage, heads should not

initiate the start of work with the system; the system

should automatically notify heads of the occurrence

of a disaster.

Now it is already necessary to develop the tools

of semi-automatic control, when DSSs not only

provides information about the impacts and

recommendations, but also partially gives out

commands on executive mechanisms. For example,

if air temperature of outside is dropping then

temperature of hot water in the heating system must

be increasing automatic; increasing the power of

refrigerator units to maintain a certain temperature

in the refrigerator when transporting fruit and

vegetables from the south to the north. The heads,

using his experience and intuition, corrects

(confirms) the implementation of the control

functions of the system. So, if the heat supply

system of buildings is outdated, then during a

period of severe cooling of air temperature, do not

increase the pressure in the system, because this can

lead to a breakthrough, and then freezing of pipes

and cessation of heat supply.

The automatic control stage provides for the

receipt of all information by the system in an

automatic regime. The head monitors the progress

of the process, he has the opportunity to intervene

in the process in order to verify the correctness of

the decision or cancel the automatic control mode.

Disasters

-observation

- forecast

- climate

Threshold

values

Object, types of

activities

Impacts, damage

Economic models

DSS

Diagnostic

and issue

situations

Recommendations,

cost of preventive

actions

Technical and economic

information

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This control method should be use in autopilots of

aircraft, cars, drones, ship autopilots, and robots -

wherever an automatic recording of the

hydrometeorological parameters may organize.

Below are presenting directions of DSS use at

various stages of the life cycle of enterprises:

1) Prediction of the development of the region

taking into account the risk of disasters. For the

development of production in a certain region, it is

necessary to take into account the prevailing

climatic conditions. Each region has its own list of

disasters, which eventually can affect both the

further development of production and the

infrastructure of region, as well as people's

livelihoods. At this stage, it is important to have

climatic assessments of natural conditions, the

likelihood of disaster, as well as risks from certain

disasters for several options for the development of

a region. Using DSS, estimates of possible impacts

taking into account climate change may obtain.

2) Planning. Based on forecasts for the

development of the region, taking into account the

risk of disasters, available resources, an appropriate

development option is selecting. At this stage, DSS

allows quickly and efficiently to assess possible

impacts of disasters on enterprises and the

population with an assessment of the damage for

each development option, as well as

recommendations for mitigating these impacts

taking into account their cost.

3) Engineering designing. Designers, using

DSS, to determine possible impacts on specific

projected enterprises, for examples, where to lay the

pipeline taking into account possible flooding of the

territory, at what height to build a pier, where to put

warehouses for storing goods, at what height to

install Internet-communicators, so that if the level

rises water a cable is not exposed to water.

4) Designing of construction. At this stage, it is

important to take into account the relationship

between enterprises under construction and possible

disasters. For example, a road running along the

river can serve as a dam, but at a certain water level

exceeding the critical mark, can take place overflow

of water across the road, its erosion, which, in turn,

could lead to new flooding. When building design,

it is also important to consider the wind rose, the

amount of precipitation, etc. All this can formalize

by DSS.

5) Construction. This step consists in providing

data of observations and prognostic information of

construction and installation work on constructed

enterprises and installations. Here using DSS it is

necessary to take into account the impacts of

disasters occurring at the time of construction and

affecting the enterprise under construction,

construction materials and equipment.

6) Operation of an enterprise. In the process of

operating enterprises, the key task is to build an

effective process for taking into account the impacts

of current and predicted indicators. At this stage,

the DM should receive information about the

hydrometeorological situation automatically as they

are used.in the business processes of enterprises.

DSS here will help DM in time to take preventive

actions to prevent or mitigate the consequences of

disasters, as well as increase the efficiency of the

business processes that depend on the

hydrometeorological situation.

7) Conservation of the enterprise. So far, very

little attention has been paying to the last stage of

enterprises life cycle. This is clearly seeing in the

example of nuclear power plants. There are few

effective technologies that make it possible in a

planned manner not only to decommission an

object, preserve it, but also to provide a safe long-

term conservation regime or even free up space for

another object. In addition to monitoring the state of

the conserved enterprise, it is necessary to take into

account the passage of disasters, which can affect

the safety his of conservation.

The tasks of the GMS of national, regional and

local administrations, heads of government and

enterprises should be:

 Preparation of information, regulated in terms of

composition, danger criteria, timing of updating and

transmission for automated systems of federal

executive bodies and enterprises;

 Awareness raising among the public and

enterprises leaders to identify and predict disasters;

 Choice of means and methods of informing of

the public about disaster;

 Informing the public about disaster, danger

level, potential impacts and recommendations;

 Identification of individual objects subjected to

disasters with complex social or technical

conditions;

 Identification of the danger level for enterprises

on the basis of assessments of impact indicators (at

what values a negative impact occurs) in the form

of a “traffic light” (green, yellow, orange, red);

 Indication of disasters nature, causes, indicators

of severity and scale impacts;

 Determination of the list of possible objects, on

which impact the disaster;

 For each type of enterprise and type of

production activity automatic detection of disasters

must be organize on local threshold values with the

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provision of information on possible impacts and

recommendations;

 Compiling a list of all the expected impacts for

each enterprise, type of activity and of the

population;

 Distribution of information about the disaster

received from Regional offices of Roshydromet,

according to the list, including mass media,

population by e-mail, SMS;

 Loss assessment for the most significant

impacts;

 Defining a list of recommendations to reduce or

prevent the impact of disaster;

 Assessment of the cost of preventive actions;

 Evaluations of alternatives decisions;

 Adoption of final decision.

Here it is important to give the DM the

information about what can happen, and what needs

to be making before, during and after the disaster.

To reduce the time for preparation for disaster, it is

necessary automatically to deliver information

about disaster to each DM on mobile Internet

devices (smartphone, tablet, or laptop) in real time.

DM must visible state disaster indicators to monitor

the situation, which automatically are reflecting on

the "traffic light".

In the coming years, a transition will be making

from the one-time provision of hydrometeorological

services to the constant support of DMs with

information about the hydrometeorological

situation. In practice, this means that Regional

offices of Roshydromet should be organizations that

carry out continuous comprehensive monitoring of

the hydrometeorological situation throughout the

entire life cycle of enterprises activity, and must

contribute to improving their efficiency and

reducing losses from disasters.

Using DSS can take into account all possible

protection options in disaster; calculate the costs of

preventive actions with various protection options

for a specific disasters and enterprise; compare

them with possible damage, including possible

emergency rescue and restoration work; get the

most complete information about all the factors of

the impact of disasters on enterprises and the

population. Prompt delivery of the required

information in connection with natural disasters will

create conditions for reducing the costs of

eliminating the consequences of disasters, restoring

destroyed territories and social support for the

population.

DSS development indicators for situations

associated with disaster are increasing the

information content of DM when making decisions

in the case of disaster; acceleration of delivering of

information (increasing the efficiency of informing)

to DM about the forecast and the fact of occurrence

of disaster; decrease in the volume of information

presented by DM for decision making.

4 New tasks for the development

hydrometeorological support

The new tasks of GMS when using DSS should be:

 Automatic delivery of data and information for

DMs to mobile devices;

 Automatic delivery of observed and prognostic

values of indicators, that the head of the

administration of a constituent entity of the Russian

Federation or municipality identified as dangerous;

 Automatic notification of the population about

impending disaster and the issuance of information

on possible impacts and recommendations for

preventive actions;

 Automatic transmission of observed and

prognostic information about disaster to drivers;

 Inclusion of hydrometeorological information in

the ship’s navigation system for the combination of

the ship’s route of movement and the area of the

passage of the disaster based on current and forecast

data;

 Automatic accounting of threshold values of

disasters indicators when some objects are located

in the area of disaster;

 Energy saving, optimal calculation of energy

consumption at the enterprise, predictive

monitoring of fuel supply depending on the season,

weather conditions.

With the help of such means, the DMs will be

able to get operational access to current, prognostic

and climate information, evaluate disaster, and

quickly make managerial decisions based on these

data. The necessary data will automatically update,

loaded from an integrated information system, for

example, from the Unified State System for

Information on the Situation in the World Ocean

(ESIMO) [25]. When working with the system, the

DM pre-determines the type of object, type of

activity, area of interest or a fixed point, for which

hydrometeorological information needs. For each

district or point, indicator values will be available

that the DM has identified as danger for his

enterprise, presented in the form of observed,

predictive and climatic values.

Using personalized services for GMS provide a

focus on receiving better economic results. It need

personalized maintenance methods for enterprises

such as airplanes, helicopters, trains, mining trucks,

turbines of power plants and others taking into

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account hydrometeorological information, can

provide profit growth, reduced downtime of basic

equipment, and increased workers safety.

DSS provides enterprises with a clearer picture

of potential impacts of disasters, based on climatic,

prognostic information, and the impacts that occur

during the passage of disasters, which will help

reduce production downtime and damage. An

important moment is also the possibility of

changing the economic model of interaction

between Roshydromet and consumers, i.e. a change

in the GMS paradigm - from the formal delivery of

information on the current and prognostic state of

the environment by all possible means, before her

automatic using in business models of enterprises.

The DSS is necessary for solving the following

business tasks:

 Ensuring the safety of the population in the

event of disaster, timely informing and delivery of

warning of the disasters to emergency rescue, fire,

supervisory services, municipal services, Emercom

of Russia;

 Decrease of losses by reducing the time to

delivering information about disaster, forecasting

potential impacts and conducting appropriate and

timely preventive actions;

 Increasing of the efficiency of transport

operation and ensure its safety due to the automatic

use of hydrometeorological information;

 Optimization of fuel consumption (coal, gas,

electricity) depending on the year season;

 Ensuring the sustainability of the operation of

the enterprise infrastructure.

The sequence of actions for the implementation

of business processes using hydrometeorological

information includes:

 Identification of interaction participants

involved in the implementation of business

processes;

 Determination of the composition of regulatory

documents on the basis of which the business

process is carried out;

 Assessment of time, cost of work and other

characteristics of the business process;

 Description of the business process passport;

 Formation of plan for hydrometeorological

support of the business process;

 Description of the situations associated with the

impacts of disasters.

5 Results

Materials on the impacts collected for108 disasters,

formalized in the form of 3000 situations (30

typical enterprises, 100 types of activity, 3 danger

levels – yellow, orange, red, for climatic and

forecasting information, in moment disaster, after of

disaster). The total volume are >10 thousand

impacts and recommendations, which are presented

in database (DB).

A demo version of DSS was created to

delivering information about disaster to the

population by a mobile Internet device with the

ability to provide information about the impacts of

disasters and recommendations to reduce or prevent

these impacts. To obtain recommendations, the

following implementation option is used. The user

independently received from any official source

(radio, TV, Emercom of Russia, Roshydromet

organizations) or even from an unofficial foreign

sources and information about a possible disaster,

enters the application, selects the corresponding

disaster and receives information for impacts and

recommendations. In the future, a search will be

organized for situations related to the type of object

and types of activities; with the danger level of the

disaster, data used (observed, forecast, climatic), the

level of decision-making. An example of impacts

and recommendations for the situation “Thawing

permafrost” is presenting below.

Disaster: Thawing permafrost.

Type of information: climate.

Indicators: intensive thawing of frozen rocks >4 cm/year.

Danger level: red.

Impacts:

Operation of enterprise:

Accidents of oil and gas pipelines occur.

There is a loss of stability of the foundations.

There is a loss of deformation of supports.

Destructs the walls of underground storages.

Threatens infrastructure.

Environmental impact:

The permafrost zone boundary shift to the north >50 km, and

on the islands - >200 km.

An increase in average annual air temperature >2 degrees, the

bearing capacity of pile foundations reduced >50%.

A small forest appears - larch in the open areas on the border of

continuous permafrost.

The runoff of the northern rivers is increase.

Danger processes thermokarst, thermoerosion develops.

The number of mudflows, landslide formations increases.

Coastal erosion increases, coasts destroys.

The intensity of slope processes increase.

Planar, linear erosion arises, ravines erosion is increasing.

Karst processes are amplifies.

Thawing permafrost at the bottom of the seas arises.

The earth, devoid of natural protection, begins to heat up.

Craters form appear.

Houses go underground.

Ice in soil is melting and a completely new landscape is being

forming.

Accompanied by the release of methane into the atmosphere.

Recommendations:

National, regional and local administrations:

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To allocate a financial resources to prevent the harmful impacts

of disaster.

To update the development plans of region.

No cut down a forest in permafrost areas.

To develop new "Building regulations", and legal and by-laws,

taking into account the forecast of climate change.

Introduce restrictive actions for the construction of multi-story

buildings in permafrost areas.

To change the environmental behavior of the population.

Enterprises:

To organize freezing in platforms in the form of the “Chinese

wall”.

To reconstruct a homes to people living in the permafrost zone.

To remove designed structures from the risk zone.

A DSS more promising implementation option

is associated with the automatic detection of

disaster by indicators, based on threshold values

DB, using integrated ESIMO data [26]. This system

integrates the observed operational data coming in

from the global telecommunication system of the

WMO; prognostic grid data of regular points

coming from the Hydrometeorological Center of

Russia and other organizations; climatic data

obtained based on a synthesis of historical data

from RIHMI-WDC. The ESIMO tools are

identified a danger situation for an every object

separately based on threshold values of disasters

and is delivered directly to the MeteoAgent

application. This application after receiving the

SMS message about the disaster is initializing on

the mobile Internet device. If necessary, the user

will receive information about the possible impacts

of the identified disaster and recommendations for

DM. It is possible to connect economic models to

assess the possible damage and calculate the cost of

preventive actions before the onset of the disaster.

More details about the existing demonstration

implementation option and prospects for the

development of DSS can found in articles [22, 27].

6 Conclusions

The first time in the field of hydrometeorology

collected and formalized materials on impacts of

various disasters on enterprises and the population,

recommendations for making decisions; prepared

experimental DB of threshold values of

environment parameters, taking into account of the

enterprise type, the time of year, climatic zone.

At any time, no matter where the DM is, it will

be possible to obtain any information about the

environment state, including recommendations for

making decisions. In the case of the disaster, the

computer itself will remind DMs that the enterprise

is in the zone of disaster. SMS will represent the

DMs an information available about forecast of

time and place of disaster manifestations; possible

impacts; recommendations that need to be

evaluated, selected and implemented. DMs must

only set or correct the mode of operation of the

technological process.

Using DSS, one can streamline the decision-

making process, generalize the experience of using

information, standardize the list of activities,

determine the significance of certain decisions, and

facilitate the work DM on enterprise in determining

the list of necessary activities. This will make it

possible to bring information to the consumer not in

the form of numbers, but in the form of information

on impacts, recommendations, and damage and cost

assessments for preventive actions. DSS only

recommends, the decision is always make by the

DM, who may not agree with the information

presented by the system.

With the help of DSS, it is possible to set and

solve tasks of increasing efficiency by automating

the delivery of data, detailing data and forecasts to

the level of settlements, indicating the danger level,

providing of information about impacts and

recommendations. That is, the question should not

be improving the efficiency of IT implementation

and operation, but about improving the

management of efficiency GMS of DMs, an IT-

based. The transition to automated DMs service is

impossible without modernization of legislation and

the regulatory environment, removal of

administrative barriers between Roshydromet and

departments related both to the obligatory use of

hydrometeorological information when making

decisions and to the responsibility of managers of

enterprises for not using of information.

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Evgenii Viazilov

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Volume 4, 2022

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Engineering World

DOI:10.37394/232025.2022.4.6

Evgenii Viazilov

E-ISSN: 2692-5079

Volume 4, 2022