Assessment of Economic and Environmental Impacts of using Green
Hydrogen Gas for Generating Electricity in the KSA
ISAM ELLAYTHY1,*, YOUSIF OSMAN2, TAGELSIR ELMOTKASSI3,
ABDULLAH SULTAN AL SHAMMRE4, BATOOL KHALAF ALYOUSEF5
Economics Department, School of Business,
King Faisal University,
KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA
*Corresponding Author
Abstract: - The energy sector in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) faces serious challenges regarding its current
energy mix and energy policies. These challenges are even more complex in the sphere of electricity generation.
Where on one side, these challenges are attributed to the fast-growing domestic demand for electricity. While
on the other side, KSA depends extensively on traditional fossil fuels for generating electricity and hence facing
high rates of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. To address these challenges, the Kingdom’s 2030 vision opted for
economic diversification and decarbonization by encouraging the transition towards using green hydrogen gas for
electricity generation as a clean energy source. This attempt has been associated with measures addressing
rationalization of the demand side for electricity. The objective of this paper is to explore the economic and
environmental viability of using green hydrogen gas for generating electricity in KSA. Working toward this
objective, an economic assessment has been applied to five hypothetical cases or scenarios to identify the most
cost-effective (least expensive) to run the turbine generator at net zero CO2 emission. In addition, an assessment of
the environmental impact has been applied to the same five hypothetical cases or scenarios to identify the most
environmentally friendly i.e., help effectively to reduce or minimize the CO2 emissions. The findings of this
assessment reject the economic viability of the transition towards using green hydrogen gas for electricity
generation in the KSA, where the calculations of the five cases registered an inverse relation between the NPV and
the use of green hydrogen gas in electricity generation. These findings confirm the environmental variability of this
transition, where the calculations of the five cases registered a positive relation between decarburization and the use
of green hydrogen gas in electricity generation. Based on these findings, the economic ramifications and
viability of this transition require a thorough investigation addressing economic and non-economic aspects.
Key-Words: - Green hydrogen gas; Carbon dioxide CO2; KSA; Electricity generation; Economic impact; impact
Environmental.
Received: July 11, 2023. Revised: April 4, 2024. Accepted: May 12, 2024. Published: June 17, 2024.
1 Introduction
The energy sector in the KSA faces serious
challenges. One of which is that domestic energy
consumption relies exclusively on fossil fuels i.e., oil
and natural gas. This consumption rose above
international standards, particularly the electricity
demand, which showed strong rates of growth. This
is mainly due to the fast-growing population,
improvements in the standards of living, ambitious
economic and industrial development programs, and
subsidy regimes that encourage wasteful
consumption, [1], [2]. If this trend of domestic
energy consumption (mainly oil and natural gas)
continues, the KSA might become a net energy
importer in the coming future.
This issue has even been made worse by growing
concerns over the adverse environmental
implications associated with the extensive use and
reliance on fossil fuels in generating electricity.
Prominent evidence for that, 57% to 59.6% of the
electricity in the KSA is generated by combusting
natural gas (methane) in gas turbine generators,
which become a significant source of carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions. According to the International
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DOI: 10.37394/232015.2024.20.26
Isam Ellaythy, Yousif Osman,
Tagelsir Elmotkassi, Abdullah Sultan Al Shammre,
Batool Khalaf Alyousef
E-ISSN: 2224-3496
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Energy Agency (IEA), these emissions have grown
from 151 metric tons in 1990 to 495 metric tons in
2019, [3]. CO2 accounts for 80% of the total
greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted in the KSA.
Therefore, in the year 2020, the KSA ranked as the
10th top emitter of CO2 worldwide with approx.
1.6% of the world’s share, [4].
There are two options available for reducing
these emissions either by utilizing hydrogen gas as a
primary fuel or by mixing it in different ratios with
natural gas, [5].
Realizing the urgent need to address ahead of
adverse economic and environmental impacts of the
heavy dependence on hydrocarbons in the electricity
sector, policymakers in the KSA launched long-run
reform policies and programs for the diversification
and sustainability of energy consumption and
supplies. These policies and programs considered the
reform of the electricity sector as a top policy
priorities. This is articulated in the Kingdom's
promising vision for 2030, one pillar of which is
diversifying the energy mix and reducing dependence
on fossil fuel sources, along with taking advantage of
available opportunities–especially those related to the
expansion of the capacity for renewable energy
generation. Another pillar of this vision is the
commitment to cut the Kingdom's CO2 emission to
the level of net zero by 2060, which means achieving
a kind of balance between the GHGs released into the
atmosphere and captured from it, [6].
In the quest for addressing the economic and
environmental challenges of using fossil fuels, the
transition to hydrogen gas in electricity generation in
the KSA is seen as a key player and a more
promising option. Unlike natural gas, hydrogen gas
has the benefit of zero-emission when combusted.
Whereas, the combustion of emission from hydrogen
is only water if used as a primary fuel in the power
generation from gas turbines-generators, or it will
significantly reduce the CO2 emission depending on
the mixing ratio, [7]. On the other hand, the trade-off
is that hydrogen gas has lower energy capacity (1/3
of methane) by volume and higher prices than natural
gas, which is expected to increase the fuel cost for
running the gas turbine-generators in the power
plants, if not linked to CO2 capture.
This study focuses on the GE 7F Series simple
cycle gas turbine generator, currently in service at the
Saudi Electric Company Riyadh power plant number
12 (PP12). The study utilizes the GE 7F Series
simple cycle gas turbine-generator manufacturer
General Electric and provides information for two
main objectives:
The first objective is to conduct an economic
assessment. In this respect, an attempt is made to
evaluate and compare the cost of operating the gas
turbine generator at net-zero emission considering
the cases (scenarios) shown in Table 1.
In the light of the above cases or scenarios, the
study attempts to answer the question:
Which one of the respective cases is most cost-
effective (least expensive) to run the turbine
generator at net zero CO2 emission?
The second objective is to conduct an assessment
of the environmental impact in the case of using
hydrogen gas for electricity generation. The major
concern in this respect is CO2 emissions into the
atmosphere if hydrogen is used along with natural
gas to run the gas turbine generators. Again, the
above cases or scenarios (25%, 50%, 75%, and
100%) are going to be employed for the assessment.
From this perspective, the study attempts to answer
the question: Which one of the respective cases is
most environmentally friendly i.e., help effectively to
reduce or minimize the CO2 emissions?
Table 1. Five scenarios for the economic and environmental assessment
Scenario
Natural Gas Used (%)
Hydrogen Gas Used (%)
Case-1
100
0
Case-2
75
25
Case-3
50
50
Case-4
25
75
Case-5
0
100
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To answer these two questions, the study suggested
the following hypotheses:
Hypothesis 1 (H1):
The transition towards using green hydrogen gas for
electricity generation in the KSA is an economically
viable option.
Hypothesis 2 (H2):
The transition towards using green hydrogen gas for
electricity generation in the KSA is an
environmentally friendly option i.e., reduces the CO2
emissions effectively.
The rest of this paper is composed of the
following sections: Section 2 is devoted to reviewing
the relevant literature on the theme of this study,
while section 3 describes the methodology and data
used for conducting the economic and environmental
assessments. The findings of the five hypothetical
cases (scenarios) and their presented in Section 4.
Finally, Section 5 concludes and recommendations
regarding the nexus economic-environmental impacts
arising from the transition to green hydrogen gas in
generating electricity in the KSA.
2 Literature Review
Globally, energy consumption skyrocketed during
the last several decades. One way to address this
rising demand for energy without harming the
environment is via the use of renewable energy
sources. In this context, green hydrogen gas gained
momentum as an efficient fuel and clean energy
carrier worldwide. Nevertheless, there is discourse
over the production methodologies and end-use
applications of green hydrogen gas. Whereas the
economic and environmental viability of these
production methodologies and the end-use
applications remain debated. For example,
conventional production methods, like steam
methane reforming, primarily derive hydrogen from
natural gas, leading to substantial CO2 emissions.
While, the electrolysis, especially when powered by
renewables, presents a cleaner alternative, producing
hydrogen with minimal CO2 emissions, [8].
Hydrogen gas can be used as a fuel to generate
power, heat, or electricity. Currently, the primary use
of hydrogen gas is in fertilizer production, petroleum
refining, and methanol production. There are four
main types of hydrogen: brown, grey, blue, and green
hydrogen. This classification of hydrogen is based on
the raw material and production route as shown in
Figure 1. Needless to say, green hydrogen is the most
environmentally friendly among the other types for
the production of fuel and electricity from emission-
free sources. Powered by a renewable energy source,
such as wind or solar power, electrolysis, the splitting
of water into hydrogen and oxygen, is mainly
implemented to produce green hydrogen, [9].
Fig. 1: Types of Hydrogen, [9]
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It is necessary to mention that the so-called
carbon capture, utilization, and storage CCUS
technologies play a major role in the sustainability of
energy systems around the globe. However, several
factors justify the slow adoption of CCUS technology
worldwide. High cost is a primary factor since CCUS
applications do not all have the exact cost. The cost
can vary significantly by CO2 source, from a range
of 15-25 US$/t CO2 for industrial processes
producing highly concentrated CO2 to 40-120 US$/t
CO2 for processes with low-concentration gas
streams, such as cement production and power
generation. Capturing CO2 from the air is currently
the most expensive approach but could play a unique
role in carbon removal. Some CO2 capture
technologies are commercially available now, while
others are still in development, contributing to the
extensive range in costs, [10].
The KSA is marching forward with its plan to
diversify its energy mix to meet the Kingdom’s
demand for energy and reduce liquid burning at
power plants. Recently, the Saudi giant national oil
company (Aramco) has been investing in utilizing the
Kingdom's unconventional gas resource. There are
unconventional gas processing plant projects under
construction like south Ghawar, Hawaya Unayza ($
1.8 billion), and Jafurah ($ 110 billion), [11], [12].
Having the world's cheapest solar power
potential, the KSA has the intention to accelerate the
use of renewable energy by the Kingdom's vision
2030. Therefore, in August 2020, the KSA
announced a $5 billion project of a green hydrogen
plant powered by 4 gigawatts (GW) from renewable
energy sources, which is the world's biggest
hydrogen project announced so far. Saudi Arabia's
ACWA Power and Air Products own this plant
jointly. The target of this partnership is to produce
650 tons of green hydrogen gas by the year 2025 and
export it to the world market, [13]. Moreover, the
KSA is willing to invest in developing CCUS
facilities around the country as part of its
contribution and commitment to address the drivers
of global climate change, [14].
The current installed power generation capacity
in the KSA is 85 GW. This includes five types of
power generation units: Gas Turbine Generator
(GTG), Combined Cycle Generator (CCG), Steam
Turbine Generator (STG), Diesel Generator (DG),
and Renewable Energy (RE). Figure 2 illustrates the
electricity generation stations by type and location in
the Kingdom. Figure 3 shows that 60.1% of the total
installed generation units are GTG and almost 17.8%
are STGs. While CCG forms, 17.5%, and almost
3.8% are DGs. The remaining is RE with less than
0.7%, [15].
Fig. 2: Electricity generation stations: types and locations, [5]
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Fig. 3: Percentage distribution of the total installed generation units, [15]
Gas turbines are fuel-flexible power generation
units, yet they currently use mainly natural gas. Gas
turbine technologies are under continuous upgrade
and improvements. Currently, the available turbines
in the market are compatible with using fuels with
high shares of hydrogen even up to 100%. High
mixing rates are necessary for gas turbines to be
feasible in a low-carbon future energy system, [16].
As a key partner, General Electric (GE) has been
involved in the KSA power sector for nearly eight
decades. GE power generation technology is installed
in nearly 40 Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) sites,
and more than half (> 50%) of the total Kingdom’s
electricity generation is generated from over 500 GE-
manufactured turbines, [17]. In 2012, GE won over a
US$300 million contract to supply Riyadh Power
Plant number 12 (PP12) with eight F-Class gas
turbine generators, [18]. According to GE, gas
turbines are fuel-flexible. They can be modified to
run on green hydrogen or similar fuels as a new unit
or be upgraded even after a long service on
traditional/conventional fuels, like natural gas. The
F-Class gas turbine can run fuels with a high volume
percent of hydrogen up to 100%.
Hydrogen production and adoption will enable
Saudi Arabia to be less reliant on domestic oil and
will be a source of income for global buyers. The
Kingdom has an excellent opportunity to invest in the
production of green hydrogen gas as it has the lowest
cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation globally,
at 0.0162 U.S. dollars per kilowatt-hour (US$/kWh).
However, the adoption of green hydrogen gas as an
energy source is still in its early stages. Beyond and
above, the development of using green hydrogen gas
in electricity generation is dependent on aspects
related substantially to cost reduction. The recent
drop in renewable costs significantly improved green
hydrogen production in the upcoming years. The
Levelized cost of green hydrogen (produced from
renewable energy sources) will drop to a range of
0.8-1.6 US$ per kilogram (US$/kg) in 2050 from 2.5-
4.5 US$/kg in 2019.
As renewable prices drop, green hydrogen will
become more feasible and attractive. Other factors,
such as the prices of conventional hydrocarbon
energy sources such as oil and natural gas, will
contribute to the speed of hydrogen adoption. Since
conventional energy sources are available, the
hydrogen adoption rate will decrease if conventional
energy sources remain in a low-price regime. On the
other hand, the global environmental protection
policies and climate mitigation measures will impact
conventional energy sources' costs by further
elevating the cost of conventional energy sources,
leading to an improved future outlook for green
hydrogen gas, [19], [20], [21].
The opportunity to improve the efficiency of
domestic energy use and maximize the potential of
oil exports is enormous. Therefore, the KSA plans to
convert half of its power sector to gas and the other
half to renewables, [22]. Hence, the Kingdom will
continue to use natural gas as fuel to generate at least
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fifty percent of its power demand, and green
hydrogen will be available and produced in the
Kingdom. The KSA intends to increase the electricity
generation capacity to 120 GW by 2032 in response
to the rapidly growing domestic demand for
electricity, [5].
Finally, the transition to green hydrogen gas for
electricity generation as a new source of energy
supply in the GCC region in general and in the KSA
in particular is still in the infancy stage. Therefore,
different aspects and potentials of this issue are still
not yet covered by the previous studies. Among those
aspects and potentials - to the best of our knowledge
- no study has been conducted on the assessment of
economic and environmental impacts of using green
hydrogen gas for generating electricity in the KSA.
Therefore, the purpose of this study is to provide
academics and policy-makers in the KSA with
scientifically sound findings on the economic and
environmental viability arising from the switch to
green hydrogen as a vector for generating cost-
effective and clean energy along with the challenges
and barriers in this respect.
3 Methodology
The methodology for reviewing hydrogen energy
policies typically involves several steps. While the
specific approach may vary depending on the context
and objectives of the review, here is a general outline
of the methodology Figure 4, gives a visual
representation of the adopted methodology.
3.1 Economic Evaluation
The Economic evaluation is illustrated in Figure 4.
The annual amount of fuel required to operate the
turbine and the corresponding CO2 emission is first
estimated based on the gas turbine specification for
each case defined in the study objectives (section 1).
The annual fuel gas cost and CO2 capturing cost are
estimated. The sum of the annual fuel and CO2
capturing costs is the annual cost for running the
turbine at net zero CO2 emission. After that, all the
cost values are used to measure the cost of running
the turbine at net-zero After that, all the cost values
are used to measure the cost of running the turbine at
net-zero emission throughout the 30 years by
computing its net present value (NPV). This NPV
will be calculated for each case and then a
comparison is done.
Fig. 4: Economic and environmental evaluation chart
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3.2 Environmental Evaluation
The environmental evaluation is illustrated in Figure
4. The annual amount of fuel required to operate the
turbine and the corresponding CO2 emission is first
estimated based on the gas turbine specification for
each case defined in the study objectives. The annual
CO2 emissions are then compared for each case. The
emission for each case is compared with the base
case to evaluate the impact of using hydrogen gas to
fuel the gas turbine.
3.3 Data
Natural gas and electricity costs are to be considered
based on Saudi Minister Council Decision Number
95, Dated 17/03/1437, which is still in effect today.
The green hydrogen gas prices are based on the
international market prices, ranging from 4.5 US$/kg
H2 in 2019 to an expected 0.8 US$/kg H2 in 2050,
according to King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and
Research Center, [23], [24].
The required amount of Natural gas and
hydrogen gas to run the study focused on the GE 7F
Series gas turbine generator computed/collected from
the turbine specification sheet and the online
calculator from the turbine manufacturer (general
electric). Accordingly, the carbon dioxide emissions
will be generated using the simple complete
combustion formula, [24].
The following is the list of the assumptions used
for this study:
- The turbine is considered a simple cycle turbine.
- No modification is required on the turbine as it
is designed to run on up to 100% hydrogen.
- Therefore, the capital and operating expense of
the turbine remain unchanged except for the fuel
cost, which is investigated in this study.
- The turbine is assumed to operate at full load
8760 hours per year (hr/yr).
- The turbine is assumed to be run on its
maximum load, generating 239 MW power,
which requires 2.12 × 109 Btu/hr.
- The natural gas composition is assumed to be
100% Methane (CH4).
- The natural gas low heating value (LHV) is
considered to be 20,267 Btu/lb (983 Btu/Scf).
- The hydrogen gas low heating value (LHV) is
considered to be 51,585 Btu/lb (290 Btu/Scf).
At the start of the study, the green hydrogen gas
cost was 2.5 $/kg, and it will reduce as expected to
0.8 $/kg in 2050. Therefore, the reduction rate is
assumed to be 0.05862 $/k.
3.4 Annual Fuel Consumption
The annual fuel consumption is estimated using the
following equations:
Based on the study cases defined in section 1.1, the
hydrogen consumption can be calculated as below:
: Fraction of heat produced by Hydrogen to run the
turbine =0 for Cae#1,0.25 for case#2,0.5 for case#3,
0.75 for case#4 and,1 for case#5.
Based on the study cases defined in section 1.1, the
natural gas consumption can be calculated as below:
The annual natural gas consumption is estimated as
follows:
:
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The annual hydrogen consumption can be then
estimated as follows:
3.5 Annual Fuel Cost
The fuel gas (natural gas, hydrogen, or mix) annual
cost is estimated for each case defined in Table 1
using the following equation:
3.6 Annual Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emission
For ease of study cases defined in Table1, the annual
CO2 emission can be estimated as follows:
3.7 Annual Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Capture
Cost
The annual CO2 capture cost from the air is
estimated using the following equation:
[10].
3.8 Net Present Value
The NPV is calculated using the following equation:
1 4 Empirical Results
4.1 Economic Evaluation
The NPV is calculated for the five cases defined in
section Table 1. The results are illustrated in Figure
5.
From the figure, it is clear that the more
hydrogen is introduced to operate the turbine the
higher the expenses as the NPV value becomes
smaller. Although the use of hydrogen reduces the
CO2 emissions and corresponding capture cost it
increases the net zero emission operating expenses
due to the current relatively high prices of green
hydrogen gas (1.1 $/lb).
Fig. 5: Economic Evaluation- NPV Values
-6000,00
-5000,00
-4000,00
-3000,00
-2000,00
-1000,00
0,00
Case 1
100% NG
Case 2
75% NG
25% HG
Case 3
50% NG
50% HG
Case 4
25% NG
75% HG
Case 5
100% HG
NPV Values
Cases
Economic Evaluation
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Fig. 6: Environmental Evaluation- CO2 Emissions
In conclusion, with the current hydrogen prices,
using 100% Natural gas in conjunction with CO2
capture (Case-1) is the best economic choice as it
results in the largest NPV value among all the cases
as of now, [25].
As the world is moving towards hydrogen gas as
an energy source, global green hydrogen production
from renewable energy will increase and hydrogen
prices will reduce. The economic evaluation result in
this study is expected to change in the future due to
the future reduction in hydrogen gas prices.
Refer to Attachment-1 for NPV detail calculation
for all cases. Worldwide, the decarburization policies
of numerous governments, along with the decreasing
costs of producing renewable energy, are reinforcing
the argument for hydrogen as a viable energy carrier
and fuel source. Hydrogen energy offers
opportunities for reducing carbon emissions clean
hydrogen produced with renewable or nuclear
energy, or fossil fuels using carbon capture, can help
to decarbonize a range of sectors, including
electricity to reduce emissions, [24], [25].
4.2 Environmental Evaluation
The CO2 annual emission is calculated for the five
cases defined in Table 1. The results are illustrated in
Figure 6.
It is clear from the above figure that the
introduction of hydrogen gas into the turbine fuel has
a significant impact on reducing CO2 emission. With
100% natural gas in Case-1, the annual CO2
emission is 1.1 million tons per year while it is
reduced by 25% in Case-2 and by 50% in Case-3 to
zero emission in Case- 5 with 100% hydrogen fuel,
[26], [27].
Introducing Hydrogen gas into the turbine
generator fuel helps to make the turbine operation
friendlier to the environment by significantly
reducing the CO2 emissions or even eliminating the
emissions, which ultimately reduces the air pollution
and improves the quality of the air.
5 Conclusions and Recommendations
This work analyzes the economic and environmental
impacts of using green hydrogen gas for generating
electricity in the KSA, employing the Economic and
environmental evaluation illustrated in Figure 4.
Hydrogen possesses the ideal economic and
environmental qualities necessary to emerge as a
future energy carrier. With developing technologies
for production, storage, and utilization, it has the
potential to become a clean, safer, and sustainable
energy carrier.
Hypothesis 1 (H1):
The transition towards using green hydrogen gas for
electricity generation in the KSA is an economically
viable option.
The study results show as indicated in Figure 5,
that the Case-1 of 100% natural gas and zero green
hydrogen gas, registered the largest NPV in
comparison to the other cases with different
combinations of natural gas and zero hydrogen gas.
Consequently, this result confirms the rejection of the
first hypothesis of this study.
Hypothesis 2 (H2):
The transition towards using green hydrogen gas for
electricity generation in the KSA is an
environmentally friendly option i.e., reduces the CO2
emissions effectively.
0,0000
0,5000
1,0000
1,5000
Case 1
100% NG
Case 2
75% NG
25% HG
Case 3
50% NG
50% HG
Case 4
25% NG
75% HG
Case 5
100% HG
Million Ton/Year
Case
CO2 Emission
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Figure 6 shows that the introduction of green
hydrogen gas into the turbine fuel has a significant
impact on reducing CO2 emissions. With 100%
natural gas in Case-1, the annual CO2 emission is 1.1
million tons per year while it is reduced by 25% in
Case-2 and by 50% in Case-3 to zero emission in
Case-5 with 100% hydrogen fuel. We find that the
results of the study reject the second hypothesis.
The KSA has a significant potential to become a
leading player in using green hydrogen gas for
generating electricity. To achieve this goal, the
country needs to address the current limitations and
implement a strategic plan that includes increasing
investment in Using Green hydrogen Gas, developing
a comprehensive hydrogen strategy, fostering
international cooperation, building hydrogen
infrastructure, supporting research and development,
developing local demand for green hydrogen, and
promoting education and awareness.
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Contribution of Individual Authors to the
Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting
Policy)
The authors equally contributed in the present
research, at all stages from the formulation of the
problem to the final findings and solution.
Sources of Funding for Research Presented in a
Scientific Article or Scientific Article Itself.
This research was funded by the Deanship of
Scientific Research at KFU: GrantA010.
Conflict of Interest
The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
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