Time Series Satellite and Observational Data for Assessment of Urban
Air Pollution and Climate Dynamics Impacts on COVID-19
transmission in Bucharest
DAN SAVASTRU, MARIA A. ZORAN*, ROXANA SAVASTRU, MARINA N. TAUTAN,
DANIEL V. TENCIU1
1National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics,
Bucharest- Magurele,
ROMANIA
*Corresponding Author
Abstract: - This study conducts a complex analysis to evaluate urban air pollution and climate dynamics
impacts on COVID-19 viral infection incidence and mortality in Bucharest metropolitan city in Romania. It is
motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic occurrence and environmental/health challenges caused by increasing
urbanization in Bucharest. This paper presents the temporal patterns characteristics of the main air pollutants
PM2.5 and PM10 (inhalable particulate matter with aerodynamic size less than or equal to 2.5 µm and 10 µm,
respectively) as well as nitrogen dioxide-NO2, ozone-O3, sulfur dioxide-SO2, and carbon monoxide-CO during
the period March 2020March 2022 through the integration of time-series surface observation and satellite
data. Through the employing of descriptive statistics and regression models for multiple datasets of air
pollutants and climate-related parameters such as air temperature at 2m height (T), relative humidity (RH),
wind speed intensity (w), and direction, Planetary Boundary Layer height-PBL, and surface solar irradiance-SI,
this study found that seasonal variation of aerosol loading parameters (PM2.5 and PM10) over the investigated
metropolitan city have a direct impact on COVID-19 spreading. Nevertheless, additional environmental and
epidemiological investigations are required to test the causality of air pollution and climate seasonality impacts
on COVID-19 seasonality and its severity.
Key-Words: - Time series satellite and in-situ data, COVID-19, Air pollution, Climate variables, Bucharest,
Romania.
Received: March 12, 2022. Revised: August 25, 2023. Accepted: September 27, 2023. Available online: October 26, 2023.
1 Introduction
From 26 February 2020 to 4 May 2023, the
Pandemic Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19),
caused more than 68,089 death people and infected
more than 3,393,902 people in Romania. Bucharest
city, reported 16.98% of all confirmed COVID-19
cases and 8.85% of all deaths, [1]. Severe Acute
Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-
CoV2), a pathogen with a high risk of transmission
and infectious potential promotes COVID-19, the
worldwide pandemic Coronavirus disease. Although
there are some similarities between the associated
invasive pneumococcal disease and previous
outbreaks of coronaviruses (SARS-CoV in 2003 and
the MERS-CoV in 2012} in terms of nosocomial
and super-spreading events, there are also some
differences in its genomic and phenotypic structure
that could have a high impact on their
pathogenesis), [2], [3]. Knowing the COVID-19
pandemic risk in relation to air pollution in the huge,
densely populated area of Bucharest is crucial for
the potential of future various viral infections
developing, with unforeseeable multiwaves. The
persistent levels of air pollution in the Bucharest
metropolitan region continue to pose a serious threat
to the environment, and with an average PM2.5
concentration of 16.4 µg/m3, Bucharest is included
in the category of European cities with poor air
quality, [4], [5]. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) seems to be
primarily produced by industrial sources,
particularly wood and coal consumption and vehicle
exhaust emissions representing the biggest drivers
of air pollution from anthropogenic sources. Both
sources produce coarse particulate matter with a
diameter of 10 µm (PM10) and fine particulate
matter with a diameter of 2.5 µm (PM2.5). For large
cities, experimental studies suggested that the
collected PM2.5 has been generated by industrial
and automobile exhaust, along with some biogenic
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on ENVIRONMENT and DEVELOPMENT
DOI: 10.37394/232015.2024.20.2
Dan Savastru, Maria A. Zoran,
Roxana Savastru, Marina N. Tautan,
Daniel V. Tenciu
E-ISSN: 2224-3496
8
Volume 20, 2024
hygroscopic particles and multi-shape aggregates.
The aggregates revealed seasonal patterns, with dust
and biogenic particles prevailing in the spring and
carbonaceous particles predominant in the autumn
and winter, [6], [7]. Particulate matter PM2.5 and
PM10, which act as active viral vectors of the
pandemic COVID -19 disease disseminating could
decrease the respiratory system immunity when they
are possible carriers of SARS-CoV-2 virions, [8],
[9]. As a major environmental risk factor for
morbidity and lethality from cardiorespiratory
diseases, both long-term and short-term exposure to
outdoor air pollution may affect the incidence and
severity of COVID-19, [10], [11]. The variability of
climate parameters (air temperature, relative
humidity, wind speed and direction, Planetary
Boundary Layer height, and surface solar
irradiance) at both local and regional scales, as well
as synoptic meteorological circulation, affects the
levels of outdoor local or regional air pollutants or
transboundary levels, [12], [13]. Through synergy
use of time series satellite and observational data
and statistical analysis, this study investigates the
association between daily exposure to air
pollutants PM2.5, PM10, O3, NO2, SO2, and CO and
COVID-19 incidence and mortality, under climate
parameters seasonality during March 2020 and
March 2022 in Bucharest metropolitan area. The
observed differences in the severity of COVID-19
multiwaves are explained using air pollution,
climate, and anomalous synoptic meteorological
patterns.
2 Materials and Methods
2.1 Study Site
The urban metropolitan region of Bucharest (Figure
1) capital of Romania is located in the South
Eastern part of the country, and South-Eastern part
of Europe, being bounded by latitudes 44.33 ON and
44.66 ON and 25.90 OE and 26.20 OE longitudes. It
has about 1.8 million inhabitants and a surface area
of 240 km2. The study test area covers the city of
Bucharest and its surrounding periurban areas,
which constitute one of the most air-polluted cities
in Europe and have highly complex built, green, and
blue environments. Air pollution is mainly produced
by industrial activity, traffic-related use of old cars,
or heating of fossil fuels, being characterized by
high PM2.5, PM10, NO2, O3, CO, and SO2 levels,
sometimes exceeding standard admitted limits for
Romania, [14]. Its climate is temperate continental,
with Western European Climate influences,
Mediterranean Cyclones, and the East-European
Anticyclone. Five COVID-19 waves were recorded
in Bucharest during the entire investigation period
(March 2020 to March 2022): the first COVID-19
wave (1 March 2020-15 June 2020), which
coincided with a total lockdown (15 March 2020-15
May 2020; the pre-second COVID-19 wave (15 July
2020-30 September 2020), which was triggered by
social and tourist activities; the second COVID-19
wave (1 October 2020-31 January 2021); the third
COVID-19 wave (1 February 2021-1 June 2021);
the fourth COVID-19 wave (1 September 2021-21
December 2021); the fifth COVID-19 wave (22
December 2021- 31 March 2022). If many semi-
lockdown measures were set during the second,
third, and fourth COVID-19 waves to limit the
spread of SARS-CoV-2 infectious agents, the
minimum limitations have been implemented during
the fifth COVID-19 wave.
Fig. 1: Bucharest test site, capital of Romania
2.2 Data Used
Official websites, [1], [15], have supplied time
series data for the examined period of March 2020
March 2022 for COVID-19 Daily New Cases
(DNC) and COVID-19 Daily New Deaths (DND).
Also, websites, [16], [17] provided daily average
time series data on the measured levels of PM2.5
and PM10 air pollutants for the
Bucharest metropolitan region. Time series of
average daily meteorological data were collected
from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for
Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2)
at, [18], and Climate Change Service of Copernicus
(C3S) data, [19]. These data included air
temperature at 2 meters height (T), air relative
humidity (RH), air pressure (p), wind speed
intensity (w), and direction.
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DOI: 10.37394/232015.2024.20.2
Dan Savastru, Maria A. Zoran,
Roxana Savastru, Marina N. Tautan,
Daniel V. Tenciu
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2.3 Statistical Analysis
Spearman cross-correlation coefficient was selected
as a proper measure of the strength of the linear
relationship between pairs of two variables. To
compare each air pollutant data with data of climate
signals, all the data have been standardized. For
better correlation analysis, also a simple regression
analysis (quadratic model) was used. This study
used also non-parametric test coefficients, and linear
regression analysis to determine the similarity
between two-time series data of the averaged daily
air pollutants, climate observables (air temperature
and relative humidity, wind speed, surface solar
irradiance Planetary Boundary Layer heights), and
COVID-19 incidence and mortality in Bucharest.
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Tests of Normality have been
carried out to determine whether or not the averaged
daily time-series data sets were normal. Spearman
rank correlation was chosen to determine the linear
correlation between the significant variables: (1) air
pollutants PM2.5, PM10 concentrations, climate
variables, and (2) COVID-19 incidence and
mortality rates because the daily new COVID-19
cases (DNC) and daily new COVID-19 deaths
(DND) have a non-normal distribution. Microsoft
Windows version 2021 of the ORIGIN 10.0
software was employed.
3 Results and Discussion
To determine the impacts of air pollution, weather
conditions, and climate change on COVID-19
incidence and mortality in the Bucharest
metropolitan region from March 2020 to March
2022, when five COVID-19 waves were recorded,
we carried out an extensive study.
3.1 Role of Air Pollutants on COVID-19
The daily average temporal pattern of air pollutants
PM2.5, PM10, O3, NO2, SO2, and CO for
Bucharest metropolitan city are illustrated in Figure
2 together with their temporal distribution for the
five waves of the COVID-19 pandemic that had
been investigated from March 2020 to March 2022.
Substantial differences exist in the temporal patterns
among several pollutants. However, all pollutants
had relatively higher concentrations in the
metropolitan areas of Bucharest. The successful
implementation of total or partial lockdown
restrictions to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the
Bucharest region may be responsible for the
significantly decreased values of PM2.5 and PM10
concentrations, especially during the first and third
COVID-19 waves. However, the improved urban air
quality, which is supported by numerous other
studies for the lockdown and pandemic intervals,
could be beneficial for both the urban air quality and
human health, [20], [21], [22], [23].
The increased concentrations of daily average
PM2.5 and PM10 during the second (PM2.5 of
24.77± 11.15 µg/m3; and PM10 of 72.58±27.40
µg/m3), the fourth (PM2.5 of 28.21±10.53 µg/m3;
PM10 of 60.59±24.16 µg/m3), and the fifth ( PM2.5
of 25.13±11.65µg/m3; PM10 of 67.72±22.82
µg/m3) COVID-19 waves in Bucharest may explain
high numbers of the recorded daily new COVID-19
(DNC) cases and deaths (DND), [13]. Daily
COVID-19 DNC and DND cases were weekly
positively correlated with daily average ground
levels of PM2.5 (rDNC= 0.35, p0.01; rDND= 0.37,
p0.01) and, respectively, with PM10 concentrations
(rDNC= 0.34, p0.01; rDND= 0.39, p0.01), based to
a Spearman rank correlation analysis of the
pandemic period investigated between March 2020
and March 2022.
090 180 270 360 450 540 630 720 810 900
0
44
88
132
0
4000
8000
0
50
100
0
60
120
180
0
50
100
150
0
15
30
45
0
250
500
750
090 180 270 360 450 540 630 720 810 900
PM2.5
Day during March 2020 - March 2022
PM2.5 g/m3
DNC
DNC BUCHAREST
PM10
PM10 g/m3
O3
O3 g/m3
NO2
NO2 g/m3
SO2
SO2 g/m3
CO
CO g/m3
Fig. 2: Temporal patterns of the daily average air
pollutants and DNC COVID-19 cases in Bucharest
Our results are consistent with numerous studies
that identified that urban air pollution (PM2.5,
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DOI: 10.37394/232015.2024.20.2
Dan Savastru, Maria A. Zoran,
Roxana Savastru, Marina N. Tautan,
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PM10, O2, NO2, SO2, CO, etc.) coming from traffic-
related products or other anthropogenic sources can
trigger oxidative stress, resulting in the production
of free radicals, which are capable of damaging the
immune and the cardio-respiratory system by
altering the host's resistance to bacterial and viral
infections, [24], [25], [26]. Additionally, this study
found a positive relationship between ambient air
pollution levels in Bucharest and COVID-19
incidence and mortality in the general population.
However, the entire lockdown measures used during
the first COVID-19 wave have led to an increase in
O3 levels and a decrease in PM2.5, PM10, NO2,
SO2, and CO pollutants levels. The high amounts of
particulate matter and gaseous pollutants dispersed
in the lower atmosphere can have a dominant impact
on the fog-haze formation process during
atmospheric inversion periods. Therefore, adverse
diffusion conditions might result in an increase in
the microbial activity levels in atmospheric aerosols
including coronaviruses.
3.2 Climate Variability Effects on COVID-19
Globalization and climate change may promote the
spread of viral pathogens and the emergence of
pandemics, especially for newly developing
infectious illnesses like the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-
19) virus, which caused a serious worldwide health
catastrophe. This article focused on the relationship
between climate seasonality and COVID-19
incidence and mortality to better understand the
impact of weather variables on the COVID-19
spread in Bucharest. The significant negative
relationships between COVID-19 incidence and
mortality and the selected climatic variables
(Planetary Boundary Layer height, air temperature T
at 2m height, and solar surface irradiance SI) are
presented in Table 1. For air pressure and relative
humidity-RH, positive relationships between
COVID-19 DNC and DND have been reported
(r=0.25 and r=0.31, respectively). Additionally, this
study revealed strong associations between air low
temperatures and solar surface irradiance associated
with elevated COVID-19 daily new incident cases
and mortality, consistent with other most recent
studies' findings for European cities, [27], [28].
Additionally, relative humidity plays a significant
role in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, while
wind speed, intensity, and direction have a weak
negative correlation with the spread of the COVID-
19 virus. However, there is a strong seasonal
correlation between the incidence and mortality of
COVID-19 and the seasonal patterns of climate
variables. The first COVID-19 wave's relatively low
intensity in comparison to other European cities
may be justified by the high levels of daily PBL
heights of (1607.19 ± 526.06) m, that had been
observed in the Bucharest metropolitan area, [29],
[30], [31]. High rates of infectivity in Bucharest
may be attributed to unusual daily low average PBL
heights observed during the second, fourth, and fifth
waves, which were (538.74 ± 293.26) m, (920.23 ±
603.25) m, and (846.74 ± 463.01) m, respectively.
The PBL height meteorological parameter, which is
related to the vertical mixing dynamics and dilution
or accumulation of pollutants and bioaerosols
(bacteria, fungi, and viruses) near the ground level,
is involved in COVID-19 transmission, especially in
large urban centers, [32], [33].
Table 1. Spearman rank correlation coefficients and
p values between daily COVID-19-incidence cases,
and daily climate parameters during the entire
analyzed period March 2020- March 2022. * p<0.01
COVID
-19
T
(oC)
RH
(%)
w
(km/h)
SI
(W/m2)
DNC
-0.52*
0.40*
-0.16*
-0.73*
DND
-0.63*
0.46*
-0.14*
-0.74*
All of the study's findings show a strong
relationship with meteorological factors. This paper
concludes that despite climate plays a significant
role in COVID-19 transmission, especially in
temperate regions like Bucharest, it cannot
completely stop the outbreak as has recently been
seen on the second, fourth, and fifth waves when
implemented restrictions have been reduced.
3.3 Synoptically Atmospheric Circulation
Impacts on COVID-19 Waves
The viral COVID-19 disease is associated with both
mesoscale and synoptic scale meteorology.
However, previous studies for some European
metropolitan areas have found limited association
between synoptic variables and the reported number
of COVID-19 incidences and mortality. Hence there
is an urgent need to establish a clearer association
with SARS-CoV-2 transmission in relation to air
pollution and the most relevant synoptic
meteorological variables to adopt proper strategies
during pandemic events. The National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/NCEP provided
daily time series for vertical wind velocity (Omega
(Pascal/s) at 850 hPa data and maps, at around 1.4
km above the ground level over Bucharest
metropolitan city as compared to the climatology
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Dan Savastru, Maria A. Zoran,
Roxana Savastru, Marina N. Tautan,
Daniel V. Tenciu
E-ISSN: 2224-3496
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Volume 20, 2024
average (19812010) period, during the entire
analyzed pandemic period (March 2020March
2022). At the mesoscale level, it has been found that
before and during each COVID-19 wave, downward
airflows identified by positive omega values in
composite average surface maps at 850 mb were
associated with anomalous anticyclonic stationary
conditions. These conditions may have a detrimental
effect on urban air quality and promote the spread of
COVID-19 disease when they are prevalent in
Bucharest metropolitan city, [34]. Figure 3 shows
the Omega surface chart composite mean (Pa/s) at
850 mb over Romania during the second COVID-19
wave in Bucharest when high numbers of daily
COVID-19 incidence and fatality DNC and DND
cases had been reported before the vaccination
campaign. Due to its position in a large depression-
like structure known as the Romanian Plain,
surrounded by barriers of the Carpathians
Mountains, the Bucharest metropolitan area is
affected by strong tropospheric anticyclonic
systems. Because Bucharest city usually displays
high concentrations of PM under several
atmospheric situations, the recorded anticyclonic
systems affect it during the late fall and winter
seasons, which favor the accumulation of high
levels of aerosols including virus-laden aerosols
near the ground, which explains the high rates of
viral disease transmission.
Fig. 3: Omega surface chart composite mean (Pa/s)
at 850 mb over Romania during the second COVID-
19 wave in Bucharest
4 Conclusion
This study offers convincing evidence of the impact
of COVID-19 outcomes during Bucharest's five
pandemic waves on exposure to air pollution and
climate variability. The initiatives and resources
needed to improve the city of Bucharest's air
quality, particularly in relation to pandemic
occurrences, might be prioritized using the
decreasing trends in air pollution that were detected
during the COVID-19 total lockdown. Additionally,
it highlighted the climatic factors that influence air
pollution trends, COVID-19 incidence, and COVID-
19 mortality. The findings of this study demonstrate
that the daily new COVID-19 cases and deaths in
the Bucharest region were influenced by climate and
air quality variables, and they can help public
decision-makers by offering insightful information
about the COVID-19 pandemic and other viral
infections. This study provides important
information on the detrimental effects of urban air
pollution associated with climate variables on
people's immune system reduction and viral
infections, which is in line with the United Nations
Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) agenda,
namely Goals 3 (Good health and well-being), 11
(Sustainable cities and communities), and 13
(Climate action), [35].
Acknowledgments:
This work was supported by the Romanian Ministry
of Research, Innovation and Digitalization: through
Program 1- Contract no. 18PFE/30.12.2021;
National Research Development and Innovation
Plan 2022-2027, project no. PN 23 05; Grant
CNCS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-PCE-
2021-0585; Romanian Ministry of European
Investment and Projects & Romanian Ministry of
Research, Innovation and Digitalization, Contract
no.8/1.2.1 PTI ap.2/17.02.2023.
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Daniel V. Tenciu
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Roxana Savastru, Marina N. Tautan,
Daniel V. Tenciu
E-ISSN: 2224-3496
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WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on ENVIRONMENT and DEVELOPMENT
DOI: 10.37394/232015.2024.20.2
Dan Savastru, Maria A. Zoran,
Roxana Savastru, Marina N. Tautan,
Daniel V. Tenciu
E-ISSN: 2224-3496
14
Volume 20, 2024
Contribution of Individual Authors to the
Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting
Policy)
- Maria Zoran: Conceptualization; Methodology,
Supervision, Writing - review & editing.
- Roxana Savastru: Methodology, Validation,
Review.
- Dan Savastru: Methodology, Validation, Review.
-Marina Tautan: Methodology, Validation.
- Daniel Tenciu: Software.
Sources of Funding for Research Presented in a
Scientific Article or Scientific Article Itself
This work was supported by the Romanian Ministry
of Research, Innovation and Digitalization: through
Program 1- Contract no. 18PFE/30.12.2021;
National Research Development and Innovation
Plan 2022-2027, project no. PN 23 05; Grant
CNCS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-PCE-
2021-0585; Romanian Ministry of European
Investment and Projects & Romanian Ministry of
Research, Innovation and Digitalization, Contract
no.8/1.2.1 PTI ap.2/17.02.2023.
Conflict of Interest
The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
(Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0)
This article is published under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
_US
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on ENVIRONMENT and DEVELOPMENT
DOI: 10.37394/232015.2024.20.2
Dan Savastru, Maria A. Zoran,
Roxana Savastru, Marina N. Tautan,
Daniel V. Tenciu
E-ISSN: 2224-3496
15
Volume 20, 2024