The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on Global Food and
Environmental Security
IRYNA KAPELISTA1, GANNA KORNIYENKO2, VIKTORIIA SKLIAR3,
KATERYNA VOITSITSKA4, VADYM DERMAN5
1Department of Public Administration,
Interregional Academy of Personnel Management,
Kyiv, Frometivska st., 2, 03039
UKRAINE
2Department of Land and Agrarian Law,
Yaroslav Mudryi National Law University,
Pushkinska st. 77, Kharkiv, 61024
UKRAINE
3Department of Ecology and Botany,
Sumy National Agrarian University,
160, Herasyma Kondratieva Street, Sumy, 40000
UKRAINE
4Department of National Security, Public Management and Administration,
Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University,
103, Chudnivska, Zhytomyr, 10005
UKRAINE
5Laboratory of Environmental Quality Assessment,
SI “Institute of Environmental Geochemistry of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine” (IEG),
Academician Palladin Avenue, 34а, Kyiv-142, 03142,
UKRAINE
Abstract: - The global war has disrupted trade, production, and consumption, leading to increased commodity
prices and a threat to global food security. The article examines the long-term consequences of the war on
global food and environmental security, focusing on disruptions in food markets and infrastructure destruction.
The study utilizes the FAOSTAT database and food security indicators to assess the state of food security in
Russia and Ukraine from 2010 to 2021. The results reveal numerous negative direct and indirect effects on food
and environmental security, with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) being among the most affected
regions. Prior to the Russian invasion in February 2022, Ukraine was a major grain exporter to the MENA
region. However, the war caused extreme volatility in food insecurity. Among the key consequences of the war,
it should be mentioned about the decrease in the volume of production of agricultural products in Ukraine due
to the reduction of cultivated areas as a result of blockades and destruction, which led to export restrictions, and
loss of producers’ income. The countries of the Global South are most vulnerable to the food crisis (Turkey,
Egypt, Georgia, Tunisia, Morocco, Libya), given the significant import dependence on Ukraine and the
significant increase in product prices. The war has also resulted in pollution of water and land resources, air
contamination, supply and sewage problems, and deteriorating sanitary conditions.
Key-Words: - food security, environmental security, Russian-Ukrainian war, food crisis, environmental disaster
Received: March 7, 2023. Revised: June 13, 2023. Accepted: August 14, 2023. Published: September 11, 2023.
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1 Introduction
The war has affected global trade dynamics,
production volumes, and consumption patterns,
causing commodity prices to rise in 2022-2023 and
threatening global food security. The destruction of
infrastructure and hostilities also harm the
environment, biodiversity, and land resources.
Environmental safety has been compromised in the
frontline and adjacent areas, and Russia's terrorist
actions have led to air and water pollution and soil
degradation, [1]. Thus, food and environmental
security are closely linked, especially in the context
of food production and consumption of natural
resources. According to preliminary estimates, the
war has resulted in total losses to agriculture of
USD 2.2 billion, with cumulative losses amounting
to USD 28.3 billion, [2]. Among the consequences
are the complete or partial destruction of
warehouses, machinery and equipment, livestock
and perennial plantations, theft of material and
technical products, and the need for reclamation of
agricultural land, [3]. Among the losses are
production losses, including unharvested crops and
winter crops, as well as an increase in the cost of
agricultural production, which negatively affects
Ukraine's agricultural exports.
To understand the overall impact of military
operations on food security, it is advisable to
analyze the long-term consequences of disruptions
in global food markets and the destruction of
infrastructure on global food and environmental
security.
The purpose of the present academic paper is to
identify the key consequences of the impact of the
Russian-Ukrainian war on global food and
environmental security. The study systematizes the
major negative consequences of the Russian-
Ukrainian war on global food security, in particular,
it confirms the growing vulnerability of the food
system.
2 Literature Review
Ukraine – Russia war impact on food security
The Russian-Ukrainian war has harmed the
socioeconomic system at the international level, in
particular, causing a food crisis, creating challenges
for various countries, especially those dependent on
food imports (countries of the Middle East and
North Africa (MENA), [4]. The total world wheat
production of Ukraine and Russia is about 30%, [5].
African countries import all their wheat from
Ukraine and Russia: Lebanon, Egypt, and Tunisia
import significant volumes of wheat from Ukraine
(81%, 85%, and 50% of total wheat imports,
respectively), [5]. Some of the world's most food-
insecure countries, such as Yemen, Sudan, and
Bangladesh, are heavily dependent on wheat
imports from Russia and Ukraine. This leads to
social and economic problems in terms of short-,
medium- and long-term food security, [6]. The rapid
development of the global market for organic
products provides new opportunities for Ukraine,
[7]. Machine-building enterprises also suffer from
military actions, so management with a spatial
approach was introduced, [8]. With the help of
strategic planning in national security, it is possible
to improve the state system in the conditions of
informatization of society, [9], as well as the
financial and economic security of financial markets
at the stage of European integration, [10]. When
forming strategic issues, one should not forget about
the environmental issues of globalization, [11], and
atmospheric air pollution, [12]. Prices in food
markets are rising due to disruptions in the supply
chain, and in some countries, yields have declined
with high global demand, [4]. Among the direct
consequences of the war are the following:
reduction of Ukrainian exports, labor shortages due
to migration from Ukraine, the uncertainty of future
yields, [4], reduction of grain exports from
countries, changes in the volume of global fertilizer
supplies from Belarus and the Russian Federation,
and rising food prices, volatility of basic foodstuffs
and fertilizers, growing uncertainty in various
markets, intensification of competition in the global
food market due to the actions of two key players
(China and India), whose foreign demand for food is
growing, [6], [13], [14]. In, [15], authors identified
the effects of the war on the area and the expected
yield of winter crops based on data from 10,125
village councils in Ukraine and satellite imagery.
Under the war, the area under winter crops
decreased from 9.35 million hectares to 8.38 million
hectares, only 14% of which can be attributed to the
direct effects of the conflict. The combined
reduction in area and yields due to the war will lead
to losses of up to 17% of the winter wheat harvest,
assuming that the 2022 winter wheat crop is fully
harvested, [15].
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations (FAO), [16], believes that food
security is achieved when all people have consistent
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physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and
nutritious food at all times. This allows them to
meet their dietary needs and taste preferences for an
active and healthy lifestyle. The four pillars of food
security are availability, accessibility, utilization,
and sustainability (Figure 1). That is, FAO identifies
four factors that affect food security. The first factor
is food availability - the availability of sufficient
quantities of food of adequate quality supplied by
national or imported producers (including
humanitarian aid). The next factor is the
affordability of food. It means that individuals have
access to resources necessary and sufficient to
obtain food for a balanced diet. An equally
important factor is the rational use of food. It means
meeting all the physiological needs of the body
through a balanced diet. The last factor is stability -
the absence of risks of losing access to food in the
foreseeable future, [17].
Ukraine – Russia war impact on ecology
security
The destruction of commercial, industrial, and
private infrastructure during the war has led to the
pollution of water and land resources, which is
dangerous for human health and the ecosystem,
[18], [19]. As a result of the hostilities, power
outages, and the destruction of civilian homes in
Ukraine, there are problems with the water supply
and sewage, and sanitary conditions have
deteriorated. Constant bombardment and troop
movements harm air quality and land resources.
This, in turn, makes it impossible for the civilian
population to grow agricultural products, [20], [21].
The terrorist actions of Russian troops increase the
risks and probability of radiation leaks from nuclear
facilities. For instance, military operations near
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plannt and Chornobyl
have increased the threat of radiation leakage, [22].
The chemical, biological, and physical
characteristics of the soil were also affected by the
explosions and shelling. Consequently, agriculture,
industrial production, and logistics have been
negatively affected. The hostilities have caused
large-scale forest fires and forest destruction, [20].
Biodiversity is negatively impacted by intensive
deforestation and the destruction of natural habitats
with potential consequences for wildlife. Studying
plant defensiveness through structuralism could
reduce the negative impact, [23]. Bombing,
trenching, and tunneling are likely to negatively
impact soil degradation and landscape morphology,
[22]. In the long term, there are risks of biodiversity
loss and species extinction, especially in the
Askania Nova nature reserve, which was occupied
on March 20, 2022. The war hinders the
implementation of environmental protection and
pollution control measures at the local and global
levels, [20]. Continuation of intense hostilities could
lead to catastrophic environmental consequences,
spreading to other countries, such as Moldova and
Russia. The literature has published evidence of
severe air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions as
a result of hostilities, [22].
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Fig. 1: Impacts of Russia–Ukraine War on global food security
Source: [4], [16], [17].
3 Methodology
A systematic approach to determining the
consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war on
global food and environmental security is applied in
the academic paper. At the first stage, the authors
conduct a literature review to systematize the
available studies on direct and indirect losses caused
by the war. Particular attention in the
systematization is paid to the influence of the
conflict on environmental security, given the lack of
quantitative data and assessments that would allow
for a more accurate analysis of the consequences. In
the second stage, a statistical analysis of the state of
food security in Russia and Ukraine was conducted
using quantitative data. The analysis contributed to
understanding which countries will be most affected
by the food crisis, given their dependence on food
imports from Ukraine.
In the study, the FAOSTAT database and the
system of food security indicators by the following
dimensions were used: Stability, Feature indicator /
Access. These dimensions made it possible to assess
the state of food security in the Russian Federation
and Ukraine for the period 2010-2021, which
affected the situation with food supply in the context
of war. Thus, the coefficient of dependence on grain
imports made it possible to estimate the import of
available domestic food stocks of grain and the
volume of the country's production. The coefficient
is calculated as grain imports – grain exports)/(grain
production + grain imports – grain exports) * 100.
The indicator of variability of food supply per capita
made it possible to compare the variation of food
supply in the world, the Russian Federation, and
Ukraine for 2010-2021. Besides, the indicator of the
total volume of Ukraine's foreign trade turnover
with different countries of the world in 2017-2021,
the volume of agricultural production in Russia and
Ukraine were estimated, and the dynamics of food
price variability for the period 01/01/2018 -
04/06/2023 were presented.
Food security indicators are systematized by the
following dimensions:
1. Stability: Cereal import dependency ratio
(percent) (3-year average), Per capita food
production variability (constant 2014-2016 thousand
int$ per capita), Per capita food supply variability
(kcal/cap/day), Political stability and absence of
violence/terrorism (index), Value of food imports in
total merchandise exports (percent) (3-year
average).
2. Feature indicator: Prevalence of moderate or
severe food insecurity in the total population
(percent) (3-year average), Number of moderately
or severely food insecure people (million) (3-year
average), Number of severely food insecure people
(million) (3-year average).
In the third stage of the research, the authors
discuss the impact of the war with similar studies,
which have confirmed the vulnerability of the global
food system, especially in countries dependent on
Ukrainian food imports.
4 Results and Discussion
Food security in Ukraine and Russia
Food security is one of the most important
components of any state's national security. In 2021,
almost 400 million people in the world received
food provided by the export of agricultural products
from Ukraine to the world market. The war
provoked by the Russian Federation in Ukraine has
led to the destruction of the systems of production,
processing, and supply of agricultural products to
the international market, [24].
The war in Ukraine has shocked not only all
countries of the world but also negatively affected
the economies of most of them. With the outbreak
of hostilities, a large number of companies
suspended their operations, which in turn led to the
destruction of logistics. One of the main logistical
challenges is the blocking of agricultural
transportation across the Black Sea from Ukrainian
ports in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson, which were
previously used by Ukraine for almost all of its food
exports.
Currently, Ukraine is one of the world's most
important exporters of grains, namely wheat, barley,
and corn, and is also the largest exporter of
sunflower oil. Some countries in the world are more
dependent on Ukraine than others: imports of
Ukrainian wheat are crucial for countries in the
Middle East, such as Egypt; Ukraine's share of total
world imports of wheat flour to this country is 44%,
corn - 55%, and sunflower oil - 59%. Ukraine's key
trading partners include China, India, the
Netherlands, Turkey, Egypt, Poland, and Spain (
Table 1, Appendix).
According to the UN Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO), in 2021 Ukraine became the
world's largest exporter of sunflower oil (almost
35%), ranked second in barley exports (14%), third
in corn exports (11%), as well as fourth in rapeseed
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exports (over 10%) and fifth in wheat exports
(almost 10% of world exports), [25].
According to the Global Food Security Index,
Ukraine, having received a record harvest of grains
and oilseeds in 2021 (107 million tons), ranked only
58th, [25]. Although Ukraine has high indicators of
food availability, quality, and safety, its indicators
of resources and sustainable development are
significantly lower than those of other countries.
These indicators did not allow Ukraine to rank
higher on the Global Food Security Index. Before
the war, the Russian Federation had a negative
coefficient of dependence on grain imports, which
amounted to -59.2% for the period from 2010 to
2021. At the same time, in Ukraine, this coefficient
was -174.10%, [25], which indicates a high
dependence of other countries on grain imports from
Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the number of people with
moderate or acute food insecurity is high in Russia
and Ukraine: 9.66 million and 9.10 million people in
2016-2021, [25]. War conditions have significantly
worsened the food security situation, increasing the
number of food-insecure people. As the authors of
the study, [26], show, at the lowest level of war
duration and sanctions, the direct and indirect
effects could lead to 67.3 million people being
undernourished (which is close to the total
population of France). 316.7 million people could
suffer from extreme food insecurity (close to the
total population of Bangladesh and Russia). Among
the affected population, almost 95% come from
developing countries, which indicates the risks to
the food supply in these countries, [26]. Ukraine has
a much higher indicator of variability in food
production per capita - 43.08 thousand dollars per
capita, while in the Russian Federation, it is 20.48
thousand dollars per capita, [17]. The Russian
Federation and Ukraine also have different
indicators of the variability of food supply per
capita, 28.8 kcal/person/day and 21.6
kcal/person/day, respectively. Ukraine has a much
lower indicator of political stability and the absence
of violence/terrorism - -1.28 for 2010-2021, while
the Russian Federation - -0.69 for the same period,
[17]. Ukraine has a much higher prevalence of
moderate or severe food insecurity among the
population - 20.61%, while in the Russian
Federation, it is 6.62%, [17]. The value of food
imports in Ukraine's total merchandise exports
amounted to 7.75%, while in the Russian
Federation, it was 6.25%, [17]. Thus, Ukraine has
significantly higher food security indicators,
especially in terms of grain availability, food
production, and supply. Meanwhile, the high level
of instability has harmed Ukraine's food security
indicators and, accordingly, has affected countries
dependent on imports of grain and other food
products. The Food Security Indicators in Ukraine
and Russia 2010–2021 are presented in Table 2
(Appendix).
The volume of agricultural production in the
Russian Federation grew annually by 6.36% on
average in 2017-2021, in Ukraine - by 18.51% over
the past five years, and in the world as a whole - by
4.89%, [16], (Table 3, Appendix). Herewith, the
share of agricultural production in Ukraine
amounted to 0.79% on average for 2017-2021,
gradually increasing, [16]. The Russian Federation's
figure was 2.04% on average for the same period,
which, given the territory of both countries,
indicates Ukraine's significant agricultural
advantages in providing food to other countries.
Over the period 2011-2021, the Agricultural
Production Index grew both globally and in Russia
and Ukraine (Figure 2). According to a study by the
European Commission, the war harmed production
in one quarter (25%) of the surveyed farms, [3].
Every fourth respondent reported a reduction or
cessation of production, and this trend is more
pronounced in the frontline regions, where every
third respondent reported a reduction in activity
(38%).
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Fig. 2: Production Indices of agriculture in Russia, Ukraine, world, 2017-2021,
Source: [27].
Fig. 3: Excessive food price variability early warning system 01/01/2018 – 04/06/2023
Source: [30].
The decline in agricultural production is
indirectly evidenced by the reduction in the area
under crops in 2022 by -5377 thousand hectares (-
22%) in Ukraine. At the same time, in 2018-2021,
this indicator increased by 2% on average per year,
[28]. In addition, the production of basic livestock
products decreased in Ukraine in 2022, namely:
meat (in slaughter weight) -231,6 thsd. tons; milk -
946,2 thsd. tons; eggs -2149,5 mln. pieces; wool -
260,0 tons. According to data from the State
Statistics Service of Ukraine, the agricultural
production index in 2022 was 75% to the previous
year, [29]. Accordingly, this situation affected
producers' incomes and increased their expenses for
crop production and livestock breeding. More than a
third of households reported a sharp or significant
decrease in income: 53% of respondents reported a
decrease in June-September 2022. 72% of
respondents engaged in crop production and 64% of
respondents engaged in livestock production report
an increase in production costs, [3].
Total losses and damages to rural households in
the first six months of the war were estimated at
USD 2.25 billion, of which USD 1.26 billion was in
crop production and USD 0.98 billion in livestock
production. The largest losses were recorded in the
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Gross Production Index Number
(2014-2016 = 100)
Russian Federation Ukraine World
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cattle sector, which accounted for more than 64% of
the total value of losses in the livestock sector. The
grains and oilseeds sub-sector lost more than 67% of
the total value loss in the crop sector, [3]. Volatility
in grain prices is also growing significantly (Figure
3), which increases the risks of a decline in global
trade and a food crisis. The war unleashed by the
Russian invaders against Ukraine has caused a sharp
rise in wheat and corn prices on the world market,
which have already increased by more than 20%.
This, in turn, has led to an increase in the cost of
basic foodstuffs, especially in third-world countries,
[24]. The results of the study, [31], show that, on
average, a 1% decrease in global wheat trade can
lead to a 1.1% increase in wheat producer prices. At
the same time, a 1% increase in producer prices
could lead to a 0.59% reduction in annual per capita
wheat consumption, a 0.54% reduction in daily
calorie consumption, and a 0.64% reduction in
protein consumption. In general, in the context of
war, a 50% reduction in wheat exports by Russia
and Ukraine could lead to a 15% increase in
producer prices for wheat, which would result in a
reduction in wheat consumption and food energy
consumption by at least 8%, [31]. Another scientific
work reveals the acute tangible impact of the
Ukrainian-Russian war in 2022 on the global food
system, [32]. The vulnerability of the food system
was manifested in significant disruptions in the
supply chain of fertilizers and food products,
especially grains. As a result, the poorest people in
the Global South have suffered more than others,
[32]. As the results of this research show, this
vulnerability is caused by the blockade of seaports
in the South and restrictions on exports from
Ukraine. In particular, according to satellite
observations, the restrictions and reduction in
exports are due to a decrease in wheat production in
Ukraine in the 2021-2022 season, [33]. Thus, the
study, [34], also concludes that the most negative
impact of the war-related food crisis is on the
Global South because of the pressure on grain
supplies and food prices, [35]. The war will
potentially lead to a reduction in trade (60%), an
increase in wheat prices (50%), and a food security
crisis with a decrease in purchasing capacity (above
30%), especially for countries dependent on grain
imports from Ukraine (Egypt, Mongolia, Turkey,
Georgia, and Azerbaijan), [33]. This opinion can be
confirmed given the sharp/substantial decline (53%)
in the incomes of one-third of households in June-
September 2022. Moreover, the authors of a recent
study, [36], also revealed that the most negative
consequences of war are traced to countries with
low economic scale and political status, leading to a
reduction in significant trade flows.
5 Conclusion
The Russian-Ukrainian war has negative direct and
indirect effects on food and environmental security.
Among the countries that will suffer the most are
the Middle East and North African countries.
Ukraine remains one of the world's most important
grain exporters (Egypt, Libya, Syria, etc.). Before
Russia's invasion in February 2022, Ukraine had
significantly higher food security indicators,
especially in terms of grain availability, food
production, and food supply. The political instability
caused by the war has negatively affected food
security indicators in Ukraine and led to a decline in
global food security. This situation particularly
affects countries that depend on imports of grains
and other food products. At the lowest level, the
duration of the war and the imposition of sanctions
could result in 67.3 million people becoming
malnourished. Moreover, 316.7 million people may
suffer from extreme food insecurity.
Among the negative consequences of the war are
the pollution of water land resources, and air, which
is dangerous for human health and the ecosystem,
problems with the water supply and sewage, and
deteriorating sanitary conditions. The war has
harmed the state of land resources, making it
impossible for civilians to grow agricultural
products. Thus, it was found that more than a third
of households in the frontline areas reported a sharp
or significant reduction in income: 53% of
respondents reported a decrease between June and
September 2022. 72% of crop farmers and 64% of
livestock farmers reported an increase in production
costs. The total losses, including losses of
agricultural enterprises in the first six months of the
war, are estimated at USD 2.25 billion.
Ensuring global food security is possible only if
the war unleashed by the aggressive Russian
Federation against Ukraine ends and the occupied
territories are liberated. To do this, the world must
guarantee the security and integrity of Ukraine, to
provide global assistance in demining and
reclaiming fertile land in the de-occupied territories.
In addition, it is necessary to provide preferential
loans to farmers to restore equipment and
production facilities damaged or destroyed as a
result of the hostilities. It is also necessary to
provide foreign investors with preferential loans to
restore the infrastructure for the storage,
transportation, and processing of crop and livestock
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products. It is equally important to introduce the
latest advanced technologies for growing and
processing agricultural products to promote high-
value-added exports, particularly in the meat and
dairy sector, products of small agricultural
enterprises, producers of craft products, and niche
crops. To ensure the uninterrupted and safe export
of agricultural products by sea, it is necessary to
engage the international community and modernize
logistics routes, in particular, to bring the width of
the Ukrainian railway gauge to European standards
with the involvement of foreign capital. With the
support of the international community, it is
essential to create conditions for constant,
uninterrupted, and safe exports of agricultural
products by sea, protecting against the possible
blocking of ports by aggressive countries.
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DOI: 10.37394/232015.2023.19.76
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Appendix
Table 1. The total volume of foreign trade turnover of Ukraine with different countries of the world in 2017-
2021, thousand USD
Partner Countries
2017
2019
2020
2021
Average
2017-2021
Average share,
%
China, mainland
1106832
2075357
3720102
4383063
2515524,8
9,60
India
2043273
1636045
1590762
2047420
1856826,4
7,09
Netherlands
1441358
1700492
1674919
1936293
1620507
6,18
Türkiye
1193389
1926344
1515615
1846855
1527900,2
5,83
Egypt
1282430
1715690
1414257
1610785
1389442,2
5,30
Poland
886481
1247694
1484295
1706255
1269777,2
4,85
Spain
1115930
1341380
1147454
1348545
1218358,8
4,65
Germany
762013
1284991
985927
1254624
1072168,6
4,09
Italy
910845
1047381
1027179
1223110
1029882,6
3,93
Indonesia
505205
715937
728732
979130
716876,2
2,74
Belarus
505591
660543
581475
617445
591184,6
2,26
France
439593
603637
601987
750513
587718
2,24
Belgium
382201
584616
460012
515724
489687
1,87
Saudi Arabia
356582
386249
396535
616273
468473,6
1,79
Iran
542311
226455
279714
617648
420661,8
1,61
Israel
417304
467916
389651
458916
416031,6
1,59
United Kingdom
250007
353100
455357
653057
399267
1,52
Iraq
184325
337042
398866
469101
348907,2
1,33
Bangladesh
364374
442139
348546
240111
319636,2
1,22
Georgia
297523
310462
290185
330091
316144,2
1,21
Tunisia
271006
310191
358747
315258
312113,6
1,19
Morocco
208642
269897
339283
392547
310489,2
1,18
Libya
202540
263027
297403
372021
287216,8
1,10
United States of
America
187839
281305
303360
333669
267252,2
1,02
Republic of Moldova
235601
242729
242475
288352
251254,2
0,96
Source: [25].
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Table 2. Food Security Indicators in Ukraine and Russia 2010–2021
Country
Food
security
dimension
Indicator
2010-
2012
2016-
2018
2017-
2019
2018-
2020
2019-
2021
Average
2010-2021
Russian Federation
Stability
Cereal import dependency
ratio (percent) (3-year
average)
-36,90
-68,10
-72,60
-
-
-59,20
Feature
indicator /
Access
Number of moderately or
severely food insecure people
(million) (3-year average)
-
11,53
10,27
8,80
8,03
9,66
Feature
indicator /
Access
Number of severely food
insecure people (million) (3-
year average)
-
0,87
0,67
0,40
0,43
0,59
Stability
Per capita food production
variability (constant 2014-
2016 thousand int$ per
capita)
43,60
18,20
8,40
11,70
20,48
Stability
Per capita food supply
variability (kcal/cap/day)
44,00
19,00
14,00
14,00
17,00
21,60
Stability
Political stability and absence
of violence/terrorism (index)
-1,00
-0,64
-0,54
-0,56
-0,73
-0,69
Feature
indicator
Prevalence of moderate or
severe food insecurity in the
total population (percent) (3-
year average)
-
7,90
7,07
6,00
5,50
6,62
Stability
Value of food imports in total
merchandise exports
(percent) (3-year average)
7,00
6,00
6,00
6,00
-
6,25
Ukraine
Stability
Cereal import dependency
ratio (percent) (3-year
average)
-79,20
-201,20
-241,90
-
-
-174,10
Feature
indicator /
Access
Number of moderately or
severely food insecure people
(million) (3-year average)
-
9,60
8,13
8,73
9,93
9,10
Feature
indicator /
Access
Number of severely food
insecure people (million) (3-
year average)
-
0,90
0,73
1,07
1,40
1,03
Stability
Per capita food production
variability (constant 2014-
2016 thousand int$ per
capita)
55,30
43,00
40,90
33,10
-
43,08
Stability
Per capita food supply
variability (kcal/cap/day)
76,00
17,00
17,00
14,00
20,00
28,80
Stability
Political stability and absence
of violence/terrorism (index)
-0,07
-1,87
-1,87
-1,42
-1,16
-1,28
Feature
indicator
Prevalence of moderate or
severe food insecurity in the
total population (percent) (3-
year average)
-
21,50
18,30
19,90
22,73
20,61
Feature
indicator
Prevalence of severe food
insecurity in the total
population (percent) (3-year
average)
-
2,00
1,60
2,50
3,17
2,32
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Stability
Value of food imports in total
merchandise exports
(percent) (3-year average)
7,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
-
7,75
Source: [17].
Table 3. Value of Agricultural Production in Russia, Ukraine, world, 2017-2021, million US dollars
Area
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total Value
Average
Growth
rate, %
Russian
Federation
77614,90
75053,57
81876,84
81604,84
97898,05
414048,20
6,36
Ukraine
24646,98
28688,11
30319,74
30309,04
46063,82
160027,68
18,51
World
3684101,7
9
3738234,6
5
4151990,5
9
4227958,8
5
4447470,31
20249756,1
8
4,89
Russian
Federation
share, %
2,11
2,01
1,97
1,93
2,20
2,04
-
Ukraine
share, %
0,67
0,77
0,73
0,72
1,04
0,79
-
Growth rate, %
Russian
Federation
-
-3,30
9,09
-0,33
19,97
-
-
Ukraine
-
16,40
5,69
-0,04
51,98
-
-
World
-
1,47
11,07
1,83
5,19
-
-
Source: [16].
Contribution of Individual Authors to the
Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting
Policy)
IK conceived of the presented idea. AK developed
the theoretical formalism, VS performed the
analytic calculations and VD performed the
numerical simulations.
Sources of Funding for Research Presented in a
Scientific Article or Scientific Article Itself
This research received no external funding.
Conflict of Interest
The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
(Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0)
This article is published under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
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DOI: 10.37394/232015.2023.19.76
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