Changes in the Organic Products Market as a Result of the 2022 Events
in Eastern Europe
NADIIA ANDRUSENKO1, LILIIA MARTYNOVA2, VITALII SHARKO1,
KATERYNA GARBAZHII3, SERHIІ HYRYCH1, OLGA VASYLYSHYNA1
1Vinnytsia Trade and Economic Institute of State University of Trade and Economics, Vinnytsia,
UKRAINE
2Economics and International Relations Department, Vinnytsia Institute of Trade and Economics of
State University of Trade and Economics, Vinnytsia, UKRAINE
3Odessa National Academy of Food Technologies, Odessa, UKRAINE
Abstract: Organic products markets will be affected by the food crisis, changes in the structure of consumer
demand, rising food prices, and the migration of Ukrainians due to Russian aggression. This article aims to
identify possible changes in the organic products markets due to the events of 2022 in Eastern Europe.
Methodology. The main research methods included analysis and synthesis, comparison, and statistical analysis
of organic markets of EE countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Ukraine). The
analysis was carried out according to the following criteria: key market indicators (land area, producers,
exporters, importers, retail sales), development history; institutions; market development indicators, including
export and import; standards and legal framework; state support policy. The databases used for the analysis are
Eurostat (2022), Research Institute of Organic Agriculture by FiBL (2022), and 2008-2020 data. The results
indicate possible changes in the organic products market due to the events of 2022 in Eastern Europe: 1)
possible market growth for organic products in the countries with the highest refugee arrivals (Poland,
Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova) and for Ukraine to overcome the food crisis; 2) a significant increase in prices of
organic products due to increased demand for food and food crisis, higher energy costs; 3) market growth in
Poland and the Czech Republic as the most developed among the EE countries due to increased demand for
products in the importing countries (Germany, Italy, France and Spain); 4) possible reduction of organic food
production due to reduced demand due to increased consumption of essential goods; 5) through the active
provision of financial assistance to Ukraine to meet nutritional and humanitarian needs, EE countries reduce the
financial capacity to support organic producers and their subsidies level.
Key-Words: organic products, organic food market, organic production, organic consumption, food crisis
Received: August 16, 2021. Revised: May 27, 2022. Accepted: June 12, 2022. Published: June 24, 2022.
1 Introduction
Over the past ten years, since 2009, the organic
products market of different countries in Europe has
gradually grown, in particular, due to policies aimed
at promoting the sustainability of the agricultural
sector in the context of the sustainable development
concept (Brzezina, Kopainsky & Mathijs, 2016;
Liulov et al., 2020) and government support to
stimulate the development of the organic market
(Escribano, 2016). Such growth, in particular, is
enhanced by trends in demand and product
consumption per person. From 2009-2019 there was
a positive trend of increase in the number of
producers (by 57.6%), especially in the most
developed countries of Europe (Eurostat, 2021a).
The share of organic producers in the EU is 14% of
the number of world organic food producers
(FIBL&IFOAM. Organic International, 2021). The
market for organic products in Europe specializes in
the production and consumption of cereals, wheat
and spelt oats, and a mixture of spring cereals, green
plants, and fresh vegetables. The main challenges of
the organic market until 2022 remained insufficient
production to meet consumer demand, poor
production efficiency, in particular, in the least
developed countries of Europe, and the problems of
implementing innovative alternative production
practices in organic farming (Vincent-Caboud et al.,
2017). Due to the events of 2022 (Russian military
aggression against Ukraine, European sanctions
against Russia, increased refugee flows, food crisis),
these problems will be significantly exacerbated, in
particular, due to the food crisis in Eastern Europe,
caused by the need to provide food for millions of
refugees and temporarily displaced people.
According to Willer & Lernoud (2018), almost 2.6
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Serhiі Hyrych, Olga Vasylyshyna
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million hectares, or 21% of the EU's organic
farmland (12.1 million hectares), were located in
Eastern Europe (EE) in 2016. It means that the EE
countries have a significant impact on the
transformation of the organic market after the 2022
events. According to available data, the organic EE
market is at least 524 million euros (Willer &
Lernoud, 2018), but the EE organic market is a
market segment that is particularly underdeveloped
(Moellers, 2014). Until 2022, the organic sector in
the EE countries was slower to develop than in the
EU as a whole. Organic area and production
development did not match similar market
development or product processing infrastructure
(Willer & Lernoud, 2018).
The events of 2022, among which the main are
the food crisis, changes in the structure of consumer
demand, rising food prices, and the migration of
Ukrainians due to Russian aggression, will be
reflected in the organic products markets. Therefore,
it is relevant to explore the transformations in the
organic food markets due to the events of 2022 in
Eastern Europe.
This article aims to identify possible changes in
the markets for organic products due to the events of
2022 in Eastern Europe.
2 Literature Review
The scientific literature actively investigates the
formation and development of organic products
markets in the EE region, in particular, the main
research occurs between 2011 and 2015. During this
period, there is the formation of the legal
framework, institutions, and policies of state support
for organic food producers, which is associated with
the accession of EE countries to the EU. The
characteristics of the organic products markets of
the CE are an excess of production over
consumption, lack of raw materials for domestic
processing of organic products, and imports of
processed organic products, which leads to a
negative impact on local development projects.
Based on a study of the organic market in
Eastern Europe, Gauvrit & Schaer (2013) found that
the markets of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic,
and Romania are the main in terms of turnover.
According to another study, the size of the organic
market of EE countries was €260 million in 2011
(Jansen & Schaer, 2012). The markets have
developed with different dynamics in terms of
turnover: in Bulgaria and Poland, the market grew
five times from 2006 to 2010; in the Czech Republic
and Romania, the market grew four times from 2006
to 2020; in Estonia, the market has doubled over the
same period; almost no market growth in Hungary
and Slovakia.
Jansen & Schaer (2012), Gauvrit & Schaer
(2013) systematized the main characteristics of the
organic market of the EE countries: the Czech
Republic market is the most developed; Poland and
the Baltic countries show the highest growth rates,
including their production; the markets of Ukraine,
Bulgaria, Romania - the giant markets, which began
to quickly develop local organic markets and where
growth is traced to lower levels; Hungary is growing
at the lowest rate. In general, there is an
intensification of local organic markets development
processes in the EE countries, in particular export-
oriented ones (Jansen & Schaer, 2012; Gauvrit &
Schaer, 2013). At the same time, the main problem
of EE markets is the development of small farming,
its access to foreign markets, and the construction of
effective marketing channels. As Moeller's (2014)
study on the organic market development in
Romania shows, small farms face extraordinary
difficulties in the formal market channels
development, so they are focused on the production
of the goods for their residence and informal sales.
From the consumers' point of view, this lack of
market orientation leads to the need to rely on food
imports.
The scientists identify (Willer & Schaack, 2015;
Shivarov, 2017) among the main challenges for the
development of the organic market in EE countries
the following: the problem of motivating and
training farmers for technological organic
production, ensuring supply chain efficiency,
providing economies of scale from product
processing and retailing, informing consumers and
incentives to purchase organic products,
consolidating support policies, explaining labeling
and product certification.
Research on organic markets in CEE countries in
recent years indicates some positive developments.
Willer & Schaack (2015) note that the accession of
new countries to the EU after 2004 (including
Poland and Romania) ensured the growth of the
organic production area. On the other hand, thanks
to the state support formed by the EU, organic
farming in the EE countries began to grow. Willer,
Schaack & Lernoud (2019) identified a growing
trend of organic markets and slow growth of organic
areas in the EU overall. Shivarov A. (2017)
identified differences in CEE organic markets in
terms of customer attitudes towards organic
products and their income levels, production and
distribution models, and export orientation.
Pawlewicz, Brodzinska, Zvirbule & Popluga (2020),
based on FiBL data from 2000 to 2017 for Poland
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and Latvia, analyzed trends in organic farming. The
authors found an acceleration of organic farming in
both countries after accession to the EU and
covering organic farming with the CAP support
system. However, in Poland, there are excellent
indicators of the number of organic farms and their
area with the simultaneous organic food market
development in the country.
As part of the Research Institute of Organic
Agriculture carried out a study of organic markets in
Eastern Europe in the works by Apostolov S.
(Bulgaria), Hrabalova A. (Czech Republic),
Dezseny Z. and Drexler D. (Hungary), Metera D.
(Poland), Megyesi B. (Romania), Prokopchuk N.
and Eisenring T. (Ukraine). The mentioned
scientific publications systematize the information
about the key indicators of market development,
history of markets formation, regulatory institutions,
production base and market indicators, standards
and legal framework, market support policy of the
state, and main challenges. Table 1 presents a
synthesis of the key findings of these studies in the
context of the EE countries.
Therefore, in Bulgaria, the market started to
develop in 2008 when more than 1,500 shops selling
organic products were established, the first
mechanism of "compensatory payments available
for organic farming under measure 214 of the
national rural development program" was
developed, and the Bulgarian organic farm was
established in 2009 (Apostolov S., 2012). Bulgaria
adopted a National action plan in 2007-2013 with a
budget of €82 million, which provided the
management of 8% of agricultural areas through
organic farming until 2013 and a share of 3% of
organic production by 2013. Bulgaria also
implemented support mechanisms under EU rural
development programs, namely compensatory
payments since 2008, the amount of which
depended on the specialization (the highest
payments for orchards and vineyards ( €729 per
hectare), lower - for pastures and meadows (€120
per hectare). "Payments for organic apiculture are
EUR 18.5 per beehive. Additional points are given
to organic farmers for investments and the projects
of young farmers" (Apostolov, S., 2012).
The Czech Republic's organic market is the most
developed among the EE countries, due to the state
policy, which provided institutional regulation, in
particular, the state financial support. According to a
study by Hrabalova A. (2012), the Czech market
grew significantly in 2005-2008, followed by
stagnation due to the financial crisis. The Czech
Republic specializes in dairy products, baby food,
fruits, and vegetables. The country has developed
market channels: general retailers
(supermarkets/hypermarkets, 65%), specialized
stores (20%), direct marketing, mainly from farms
and other forms of direct sales (5%), pharmacies
(5%), drugstores (3%), independent small stores
(1%), gastronomy (1%). The Czech Republic also
exports a significant share of its products (25%) to
the EU.
Table 1. The key features of organic markets in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Hungary, according to
scientific publications
Criterion
Country
Bulgaria
Hungary
Key
development
indicators
(2012)
Agricultural area:
39,138 hectares.
Organic producers:
2,754
Organic processors: 81
Organic importers: 1
Organic exporters:14
Retail sales: EUR 6-8
million (2009),
Agricultural area: 130,609
hectares
Organic producers: 1,560
Organic processors: 414
Organic importers: 14
Retail sales: EUR 25 million
Development
history
From 1987 when the
Agroecological center
was established, active
development since the
early 2000s (legal
framework, certification,
institutions), with its
peak development in
2008
Since 1983, in 1990 Hungary
was included in the EU
Regulation (EEC ) No.
2092/91, in 1992 the Center
for Rural Development was
created, in 1996 the regulatory
authorities were established, in
2002 the certification
procedures were approved
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Institutions
Ministry of Agriculture
and Food (MoAF),
Bulgarian organic
products Association
(BOPA), Foundation for
organic agriculture,
Bioselena, Bulgarian
organic trade
association, Agricultural
University Plovdiv:
Biokontroll and Hungaria Oko
Garancia, the two Hungarian
inspection bodies, Biokultura
Alliance, advocacy for organic
agriculture, regional
associations, KOSZ (Organic
Farmers’ Association in the
Carpathian Basin),
Kishantos Rural Development
Centre,
OMKi (the Hungarian
Research Institute of Organic
Agriculture),
MOSZ (Association of
Hungarian Organic Farmers)
Production
base: land
use and key
crops
The total organic area
39,138 hectares (2012)
The total organic area of
130,609 hectares
Market
Both production and the
market are growing
rapidly, but organic
producers continue to
mainly export raw
materials (90% is
export)
Organic products in Hungary
have only a small market share
(less than 1%).
Exports and
imports
Most of the organic
products (about 90 %)
are exported to Central
and Western European
countries, North
America, and Japan
About 85 % of the organic
production is exported.
Standards,
legislation,
organic logo
EU legislation on
organic farming and
other regulations directly
applicable in Bulgaria.
The national ordinance
N. 1/2013 regulates the
work of the control
bodies.
EU legislation on organic
farming and other regulations
are implemented, and the
decree on organic certification,
production and distribution
and labelling applies
Policy
support
National action plan,
Support under EU rural
development programs
from 2008
National action plan, Support
under EU rural development
programs
Source: Systematized by the author based on Apostolov S., Hrabalova A., Dezseny Z. and Drexler D.
The market for organic products in Poland began to
develop in 1980 and developed based on the
national policy until the EU accession in 2004. The
market in Poland is characterized by slow steady
development. The organic market is characterized
by processed goods imports, as the state processing
industry is the basis of market development. Due to
changes in the subsidies system under the new
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common EU agricultural policy in 2014, the area of
organic lands use in Poland has decreased.
Table 2. The key features of organic markets in Poland, Romania, and Ukraine, according to scientific
publications
Criterion
Country
Poland
Romania
Ukraine
Key
development
indicators
(2012)
Agricultural area: 661,687
hectares
Organic producers: 25,944
(2012)
Organic processors: 312
(processors and traders)
Organic importers: 30
Retail sales: EUR 146
million
Agricultural area: 288,261
hectares
Organic producers: 15,315
Organic processors: 105
Organic importers: 3
Retail sales: EUR 80 million
No official statistics on
organic farming exist
Development
history
From 1980 with the
introduction of technology,
was established an
association of organic
producers in 1989, in 1990 -
inspection control, in 1999 -
a system of subsidies, in
2004, after accession to the
EU implementation of EU
programs
Since 1997 - creation of the
first association of producers,
2000 - the first legislative act
of regulation, 2001 -
regulatory bureau, 2004 - the
first inspection and
certification procedure, 2005-
2012 - regulatory authorities,
2010 - providing subsidies to
farmers.
No data on history
Institutions
EKOLAND, the
Association of Organic
Producers, Forum
Rolnictwa Ekologicznego
im. M. Gornego, Forum of
Organic Farming M. Gorny,
Podkarpacka Izba
Rolnictwa Ekologicznego,
Lower Carpathian Chamber
of Organic Farming
Organic Farmers Association
of Romania Bioterra, EcoR
Partner – Resource Centre for
the Promotion and Marketing
of Organic Products, Bio-
Romania Association
Ukrainian certification body
Organic Standard, the
association of organic
production stakeholders
BIOLan Ukraine, the Organic
Federation of Ukraine, the
association of producers of
organic products Pure Flora,
the textile supplier Organic
Era Trade House, the
information center Green
Dossier, 17 private
certification bodies
Production
base: land
use and key
crops
The total organic area is
661,956 hectares
The agricultural land is
288,261 hectares
Market
The market for organic
products is growing slowly
but continuously; organic
products can now also be
found in conventional shops
and supermarkets, rather
than just specialized small
organic shops.
The Romanian organic sector
is highly export-oriented. The
conversion subsidies have
made organic farming more
attractive, leading to strong
growth in the certified area.
There is a growing interest
and demand for organic
products
Exports and
imports
The key export products are
mainly frozen berries,
vegetables, and apple juice
The main export products are
cereals, and collected wild
mushrooms and berries. The
A lot of Ukrainian organic
producers are export-
oriented. The main export
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concentrate and cereals.
The key imported products
are processed products,
exotic fruits, spring
vegetables, and tea and
coffee.
main import products are
processed food.
market for Ukraine is the
European Union.
Standards,
legislation,
organic logo
Organic farming is subject
to both the EU legislation
and other regulations, and
the Polish act on organic
farming of 25 June 2009,
which introduced a
certification system.
EU legislation on organic
farming and other regulations
apply.
The organic law in Ukraine
has not yet been approved by
the parliament.
Policy
support
National action plan,
Support under EU rural
development programs
National action plan, Support
under EU rural development
programs, Romania’s export
strategy.
In October 2010, the Ministry
of Agricultural Policy of
Ukraine announced the
support of organic production
development as one of the
priority areas of the
Ukrainian agri-industrial
sector for attracting
international technical
assistance.
Source: Systematized by the author based on Metera D., Megyesi B., Prokopchuk N. and Eisenring T.
Thus, scientific studies of the organic products
markets of the EE countries show the presence of
common features: the adoption of national
development plans along with the programs of rural
development of EU territories and general
agricultural policy, a united system of subsidies, the
presence of institutions and regulatory bodies, the
lack of support programs for innovative
development of organic production, slow market
growth, and their small share. An exception is a
Czech market, where the adoption of national
legislation and the development of the law on
financial support and the functioning of regulatory
bodies provided a significant development of the
Czech market. It should also be noted that the
countries differ in the challenges that are specific to
their markets, which are not addressed by the
general EU policy.
3 Methodology
The study used the UN classification of Eastern
European countries, namely: Bulgaria, Czech
Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Ukraine.
The countries were chosen due to the availability of
data on the assessment of the main features and
trends of the organic products markets for the years
2008-2020. It became the basis for determining the
transformation of markets due to the events of 2022.
The main methods of research selected: analysis and
synthesis, comparison to systematize the features of
the development of organic markets on the
following criteria: key market indicators (area of
land, producers, exporters, importers, retail sales),
development history; institutions; market
development indicators, including export and
import; standards and legal framework; public
policy support. Statistical analysis of the organic
products markets of the EE countries was carried
out, taking into account the availability of data in
the context of the key evaluation indicators. Eurostat
(2022); Research Institute of Organic Agriculture
FiBL (2022) databases were used for the analysis.
The main indicators for the analysis were selected:
the number of market operators of organic products;
organic industry in Europe; organic area
representing a common farm in the EE countries;
the share of organic production in 2020 in tons;
organic retail sales in EE countries; share of organic
retail sales; organic per capita consumption.
4 Results
Features and trends of organic markets development
in EE countries
The literature analysis showed differences in the
history of the formation of organic markets in the
EE countries. In particular, the differences in
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institutional, legal, and organizational nature and
different levels of government support and
incentives for production. These initial conditions
have significantly influenced the development of
markets in 2010-2020 and determined the potential
for growth in the period of transformation or,
conversely, will negatively affect the changes
through the events of 2022.
The number of organic market operators
increased in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary,
Ukraine from 2012-to 2020, while in Poland
decreased by 4%, in Romania - by 5% (Table 3).
Table 3. Organic operators in Eastern Europe countries (from 2012 onwards, 2012-2020
Country
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Average
growth
rate,
2020/201
2
Bulgaria
2 754
3 854
3 893
5 919
6 964
6 442
6 213
5 942
6 078
12%
Czech
Republic
3 907
3 910
3 866
4 121
4 271
4 426
4 601
4 694
4 669
2%
Hungary
1 560
1 682
1 672
1 971
3 414
3 642
3 929
5 136
5 128
18%
Poland
25
944
26
598
24
829
22
295
22
451
20
276
19
224
18
655
18
598
-4%
Romania
15
280
14
553
14
151
11
812
10
083
7 908
8 518
9 277
9 647
-5%
Ukraine
164
175
182
210
294
304
501
470
419
15%
Source: Eurostat (2022a); Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL (2022a).
The volume of organic crop area also differs in the
EE countries. In the EU overall, there was a growth
of 5% from 2012-to 2020 (Table 4), while in
Bulgaria - by 23%, in the Czech Republic - by 2%,
Hungary - by 12%, Poland - decreased by 3%,
Romania - by 7%, and in Ukraine - by 9%.
Table 4. Organic crop area in Eastern Europe countries (Utilized agricultural area excluding kitchen gardens:
total fully converted and under conversion to organic farming), 2012-2020, thousand hectares
Country
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Average
growth
rate,
2020/2012
European
Union
(EU27-
2020)
10016,0
10070,6
10315,2
11105,9
11935,3
12560,8
13438,2
14252,9
14719,0
5%
Bulgaria
39,1
56,3
47,9
118,6
160,6
136,6
128,8
117,8
116,3
23%
Czech
Republic
468,7
474,2
472,7
478,0
488,6
496,3
519,9
535,2
540,4
2%
Hungary
130,6
131,0
124,8
129,7
186,3
199,7
209,4
303,2
301,4
12%
Poland
655,5
669,9
657,9
580,7
536,6
495,0
484,7
507,6
509,3
-3%
Romania
288,3
286,9
289,3
245,9
226,3
258,5
326,3
395,2
468,9
7%
Ukraine
272,8
393,4
400,7
410,6
381,2
289,0
309,1
467,9
462,2
9%
Total
share of
EE
countries,
%
17%
18%
17%
16%
15%
14%
14%
14%
15%
-
Source: Eurostat (2022b); Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL (2022a).
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Despite the growth in the size of land under organic
production, the share of farmland in the total land
bank remains low, except in the Czech Republic,
where the indicator is 14.74% in 2015-2020 (Figure
1). In Hungary and Poland, the indicator is 4.22%
and 3.58%, respectively, in Bulgaria - 2.58%,
Romania - 2.35%, and Ukraine - only 0.94%.
Fig. 1: Organic area shares of total farmland in EE countries, average 2015-2020, %
Source: Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL (2022a).
The majority of EE countries' producers are
specialized in the production of cereals, wheat and
spelt, oats, and a mixture of spring cereals, green
plants, and fresh vegetables (Table 5). Countries are
classified by the share of organic production in 2020
in tons, which exceeds 10% of total organic crop
production.
Table 5. The classification of countries by specialization of organic production in crop farming, 2020
Group of countries
Specialization (by the share of organic production in 2020 in tons,
which exceeds 10% of total organic crop production)
Cereals for the
production of
grain
Wheat
and spelt
Oats and
spring cereal
mixtures
Plants
harvested
green from
arable land
Fresh
vegetable
s
Bulgaria, Czech Republic,
Hungary, Poland, Romania,
Average
particle value
22%
-
-
-
-
Hungary, Romania
-
Average
value
13%
-
-
-
Czech Republic, Hungary,
Poland
-
-
-
Average
value
36%
-
Source: Compiled by the author based on Eurostat (2021c).
The specialization in these countries is as follows:
Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania specialize in
industrial crops (12%, 4%, and 10% respectively);
Grain maize and corn-cob-mix are produced most in
Hungary (5%) and Romania (10%); Bulgaria
specializes in organic dried fruits and protein crops
for the production of grain (13%, 4%, and 4%
respectively). Organic fruits from temperate climate
zones are grown in Hungary (6%) and Poland (5%).
Grapes are grown in Bulgaria (5%). The
specialization of the country does not depend on the
part of agricultural land which is allocated in each
country for organic cultivation and can be traced to
the example of organic production of grain crops.
The feature of the organic market of EE countries is
their internal orientation and the growth of domestic
retail sales after the crisis periods. As evidenced by
the data in Table 3, organic markets have grown
0,94 2,35
2,58
3,58
4,22
14,74
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
UKRAINE
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
POLAND
HUNGARY
CZECHIA
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DOI: 10.37394/232015.2022.18.87
Nadiia Andrusenko, Liliia Martynova,
Vitalii Sharko, Kateryna Garbazhii,
Serhiі Hyrych, Olga Vasylyshyna
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significantly in some EE countries, while in others,
the growth rate was stable: 1) in 2010, after the
2008-2009 crisis (Bulgaria, Poland, and Ukraine)
and the growth rate after 2010, was maintained until
2014 inclusive and the economic recession in 2014;
2) in 2015 after the economic slowdown in 2013-
2014 (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Poland, and
Ukraine) and maintaining this growth rate until
2020; 3) stable growth of markets in Bulgaria,
Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, and Ukraine in
2015-2020.
Table 6. Organic retail sales in EE countries, million euro, 2008-2020
Organic retail
sales
2008
2010
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Average growth
rate, 2015-2020
Bulgaria
4,5
7
7
15,1
28
29,21
30
30
33,27
21%
Czech Republic
68
59
74
78,5
93,6
126,5
164
204,4
204,4
22%
Hungary
20
25
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
0%
Poland
50
100
120
167
167
235
250
314,1
314,1
15%
Romania
10
8,37
24,8
24,8
40,7
40,65
40,7
40,65
40,65
13%
Ukraine
0,6
2,4
14,5
17,5
21,2
29,4
33
36
38
17%
Source: Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL (2022b).
The Czech market is the most developed in terms of
international trade. In 2008 the Czech organic
exports amounted to € 6 million; in 2015 - € 53.36
million; in 2020 - € 116.6 million. In 2008 the
Czech organic imports amounted to € 32 million; in
2015 - € 35 million; in 2020 - € 115.7 million. The
cumulative growth rate of exports to the Czech
Republic was 377% from 2008-to 2020, with
imports - at 166%. In Hungary, there is almost no
transformation and growth in the market: from
2008-to 2020, the volume of exports and imports
remained at a level of € 20 million and € 18 million,
respectively. There are no positive changes in the
organic market of Romania: the volume of exports
remained at € 200 million from 2012-to 2020: the
number of imports was at € 35 million. Ukraine's
organic exports have been growing significantly
since 2013: in 2013, exports amounted to € 36
million, in 2015 - € 50 million, in 2020 - € 178.6
million, and the cumulative growth rate for 2013 -
2020 is 285%. At the same time, Ukraine's imports
have remained at a low level of € 4 million in the
last 2015-2020 years.
It should also be noted a very low share of
organic retail sales in all EE countries: in Bulgaria,
the figure was 0.44% in 2020, in the Czech
Republic - 1.5%, in Hungary - 0.3%, Poland -
0.62%, in Romania - 0.15% in 2020 (Research
Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL, 2022c).
With the growth of markets in Bulgaria, Poland,
and Ukraine in the period after the crisis economic
growth, there is an increase in consumption with
differences depending on the level of socioeconomic
development of the country. In Bulgaria, per capita
consumption increased in 2010 after the 2008-2009
crisis, continuing to rise to €11.66 per capita by
2014. While after the economic recession of 2014,
organic per capita consumption decreased
significantly to €2.09 per capita, gradually
increasing to €5 per capita in 2020. The reasons for
economic recessions have different effects on food
consumption patterns in different countries. In the
Czech Republic, organic per capita consumption
increased gradually from 2010-to 2020 to €19.1 per
person in 2020 (Table 7). In Hungary, organic per
capita consumption remained stable from 2010-to
2020. Poland also experienced a gradual increase in
organic per capita consumption: €6.35 per capita
from 2015-to 2020. Romania and Ukraine have the
lowest organic per capita consumption: €2.06 per
capita and €0.9 per capita, respectively, with a
stable slight increase.
Table 7. Organic per capita consumption, euro per person, 2008-2020
Organic per capita
consumption
2008
2010
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Average, 2015-
2020
Bulgaria
0,59
0,94
11,66
2,09
3,91
4,11
4,11
4,25
5
3,91
Czech Republic
6,57
5,63
7,03
7,44
9,15
11,92
16,2
19,1
19,1
13,82
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DOI: 10.37394/232015.2022.18.87
Nadiia Andrusenko, Liliia Martynova,
Vitalii Sharko, Kateryna Garbazhii,
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Hungary
1,99
2,49
3,03
3,04
3,04
3,04
3,04
3,04
3,04
3,04
Poland
1,31
2,62
3,15
4,39
4,39
6,15
6,59
8,28
8,28
6,35
Romania
0,48
0,41
1,25
1,25
2,06
2,06
2,06
2,06
2,06
1,93
Ukraine
0,01
0,05
0,32
0,41
0,5
0,69
0,74
0,81
0,9
0,68
Source: Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL (2022c).
Thus, the most developed is the market of organic
products in the Czech Republic, both at the expense
of domestic consumption and at the expense of
export orientation of the country. Meanwhile, the
markets of Bulgaria and Poland have been growing
steadily over the last 2010-2020 years on the back
of domestic consumption. The market in Ukraine
was characterized by stagnation. The markets of
Romania and Ukraine are the least developed but
are characterized by growth in 2014-2020.
The impact of Russian aggression on the EE
organic markets
The refugee flows to the EU since the beginning
of Russian aggression in 2022, more than 4 million
people as of March 30, will lead to an increase in
demand for basic products (more than 2 million in
Poland, 116,000 in Hungary, 67,000 in Slovakia,
45,000 in Romania and 79,000 in Moldova as of
March 03, 2022).
The above-mentioned organic market trends
allow us to shape the potential transformation of
markets after the events of 2022:
1. Possible market growth of organic products in
countries with a high influx of refugees (Poland,
Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova) and in Ukraine to
solve the problem of the food crisis, in particular,
due to small farms that will meet the demand for
agricultural products of organic origin. Because of
the damage to strategic civil infrastructure, which
includes large agro-industrial producers in Ukraine,
it is possible to stimulate the production of small
farmers and households.
2. Significant increase in prices of organic
products due to increased demand for food and the
food crisis.
3. The growth of markets in Poland and the
Czech Republic as the most developed among the
EE countries due to increased demand for products
in the importing countries (Germany, Italy, France,
and Spain) also receiving internally displaced
persons and refugees.
4. Possible decrease in the production of organic
products due to the reduction of demand due to the
growth of consumption of essential goods. It will
lead to a decrease in retail sales, exports, and
imports of organic products.
5. Through the active provision of financial
assistance to Ukraine to meet food and humanitarian
needs, EE countries reduce the financial capacity to
support organic producers and the level of their
subsidies.
5 Discussion
This research confirms some trends and
characteristics of the market for organic products in
the EE countries, which were observed during the
years 2000-2010 (Jansen & Schaer, 2012; Gauvrit &
Schaer, 2013). Consequently, the markets of Poland
and the Czech Republic are the largest in terms of
retail sales and organic consumption per person. In
second place in these development indicators are the
markets of Bulgaria and Romania. The Czech
market is the most developed both in terms of
internal dynamics and the volume of exports due to
the developed national legal framework of
institutional regulation and financial support to
producers. This study confirms the conclusions of
Jansen & Schaer (2012) about the differences in
market dynamics. In addition, different
specialization depending on the type of organic
products is identified, which will determine the
changes in markets after the events of 2022.
Consequently, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic,
Hungary, Poland, and Romania specialize mainly in
organic cereals production, so we can expect the
growth of this niche as a priority, which provides
consumers with essential goods.
As in the works by Jansen & Schaer (2012),
Gauvrit & Schaer (2013), the study revealed a
continuation of the trends of 2000-2010 in the
period 2010-2020, namely: the Czech market is
most developed; Poland shows the maximum
growth rate, including domestic production; markets
of Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Romania - the giant
markets, which began to rapidly develop local
markets of organics, and which can be seen growth
at a lower rate; Hungary is growing the smallest
rate. It was also found that for the period 2012-
2020, there is a tendency to intensify the processes
of local organic markets development, in particular,
export-oriented (Jansen & Schaer, 2012; Gauvrit &
Schaer, 2013).
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Nadiia Andrusenko, Liliia Martynova,
Vitalii Sharko, Kateryna Garbazhii,
Serhiі Hyrych, Olga Vasylyshyna
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6 Conclusions
This research reveals several new trends in the
organic products markets of the EE region. First, it
identified the growth of organic market operators in
Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and
Ukraine from 2012-to 2020 and their reduction in
Poland and Romania. Secondly, the differentiation
of countries in terms of organic crop area, which in
general grew over 2012-2020 (in Bulgaria - by 23%,
in the Czech Republic - by 2%, in Hungary - by
12%, in Poland - reduced by 3%, in Romania - by
7%, in Ukraine - by 9%). Third, despite an increase
in the amount of land under organic production, the
share of land in the total land bank remains low,
except in the Czech Republic, where the index is
14.74% in 2015-2020. Fourth, most of the producers
of the EE countries specialize in the production of
cereals, wheat and spelt, oats, and a mixture of
spring cereals, green plants, and fresh vegetables.
Fifth, organic markets have grown significantly in
some EE countries, while in others, the growth rate
was stable: 1) in 2010 after the 2008-2009 crisis
(Bulgaria, Poland, Ukraine), and the growth rate
after 2010 was maintained until 2014 inclusive and
the economic recession in 2014; 2) in 2015 after the
economic slowdown in 2013-2014 (Bulgaria, Czech
Republic, Poland, Ukraine) and maintaining this
growth rate until 2020; 3) stable market growth in
Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Poland, Romania,
Ukraine in 2015-2020. The Czech market is the
most developed in terms of international trade. In
Hungary, there is almost no transformation and
growth in the market. There are no positive
configurations of the organic market in Romania. In
Ukraine, the export of organic products is growing
significantly. There was identified a very low share
of organic retail sales in all EE countries. With the
growth of the markets of Bulgaria, Poland, and
Ukraine, during the period after the crisis economic
growth, there is an increase in consumption with
differences depending on the level of socio-
economic development of the country.
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WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on ENVIRONMENT and DEVELOPMENT
DOI: 10.37394/232015.2022.18.87
Nadiia Andrusenko, Liliia Martynova,
Vitalii Sharko, Kateryna Garbazhii,
Serhiі Hyrych, Olga Vasylyshyna
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