Social, Political, Psychological Impacts of Covid-19 Digitalization of the
Currency and Emerging World Order
ASHFAQ AHMED1, ATTA MUHAMMAD2, MUHAMMAD OWAIS3, KIFAYAT ULLAH4,
MUHAMMAD USMAN5
1Department of Politics and International Relations (DPIR), University of Sargodha, Sargodha, 40100,
PAKISTAN
2Department of Agriculture Economics, Baluchistan Agriculture College Quetta, PAKISTAN
3Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Management &
Technology (UMT), Lahore, PAKISTAN
4Department of Economics, Karakoram International University, Gilgit, PAKISTAN
5Department of Economics, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, PAKISTAN
Abstract:- Covid-19 universally acknowledged as Coronavirus is the biggest challenge posing threat to global
community and human life. This academic paper general in nature enables the readership from all walks of life
to understand the nature of the pandemic and its effects on our ways of life. Central objective of this study is to
highlight that change in traditional social system and domestic arena is inevitable. It brings into limelight the
economic challenges, digitalization of the economy, probable decline of the United States (US) as a major
power, challenges posed to our social culture, pre-existing work ethics, and social norms. Paper also highlights
inherent weaknesses of our health system and the probability of biological terrorism. Authors conducted
interviews for multifaceted reasons e.g., to complete and increase authenticity of this paper, to examine and
analyse Covid-19 spread using empirical evidence, recurring fallout, intensity and pandemic’s impact on liberal
international order. Paper aim to highlight significance of artificial intelligence (AI), transformation of world
economic system based on quantum computer and continued relevance of capitalism for international order.
Paper underscores states failure to adopt to changing nature of evolving digital economic order will result in
collapse of its economic institutions. Economic instability will result in political unrest, agitation and anarchy.
In prevailing circumstances geo-economic framework based on neo-liberal institutionalism rather than geo-
strategic framework is key to survive.
Key-words:- World Health Organization (WHO), Coronavirus, Economic System, Artificial Intelligence (AI),
Wuhan, Economy, Corona Virus, Covid-19.
Received: April 24, 2021. Revised: March 19, 2022. Accepted: April 20, 2022. Published: May 19, 2022.
1 Introduction
Covid-19 synonymous with Coronavirus was first
reported in Wuhan, China today this pandemic has
globally spread. International Committee on
Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) named it Severe
Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2’
(SARS-CoV-2). World Health Organization (WHO)
named it as Covid-19. Initially it was considered as
health crisis. Covid-19’s contagious nature created
worldwide turbulence. Consequentially, it severely
impacted other spheres of life e.g. tourism industry,
aviation, sports, energy sectors and entertainment
industry. Oil consumption across the globe is
reduced. Life we knew is completely changed. Yet,
the full impact of the pandemic would take time to
evolve. Governments around the globe have ordered
their nationals to confine themselves at homes.
Business activities are suspended, educational
institutions, hotels are shut, inter and intra-state
borders are closed, religious congregations and
social gatherings are banned. Measures taken to
curb the pandemic are tearing at the social fabric of
several societies. Lockdown is resulting in mass job
losses. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison
called it twofold crisis e.g. economic and health
crises. Certainly, human species is endangered.
Humanity is struggling for its survival. Cases of
infections did not remain confined to Wuhan, the
controversial birthplace of the coronavirus in fact it
spread initially to Japan, Korea, Singapore,
Thailand, Vietnam and Thailand. Covid-19 has
proliferated across the world. Certainly, we are
struggling for our survival. Interestingly, over
billion Chinese are immune from infection because
of effective lockdown. Learning from Chinese
experience of social distancing the World Health
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Organization (WHO) has also recommended social
distancing and lockdown. The W.H.O.
recommended stepwise approach adaptation for
lifting the lockdown or it should be gradually lifted
in phases. The W.H.O. recommends quarantine in
dealing with pandemic certainly it is effective
technique and prevented loss of lives in China.
Quarantine was prescribed 1400 years ago by
Muslims’ Prophet Muhammad (P.B.U.H) Abd al-
Rahman ibn ‘Awf said: “I heard the Messenger of
Allah (PBUH) say: “If you hear that (the plague) is
in a land, do not go there, and if it breaks out in a
land where you are, do not leave, fleeing from it.” If
states would not have made decision in haste and
not adopted the policy to call their citizens from
China international community could have
prevented the outspread of this pandemic. Covid-19
spread because of the ease of travelling and drivers
of globalization [1]. Substance of the discussion is
globalization of Covid-19 could have been
prevented.
The absence of immediate cure and difficulty to
develop vaccine decimated the physical world.
Covid-19 is contagious disease it transfers from
human to human. Social distancing is therefore
recommended by W.H.O. to avoid the proliferation
of Covid-19. In the near future Covid-19 will
perpetuate that trend rather than move towards
multilateralism. The West realised the acute
situation and Easter was celebrated under lockdown
with empty Churches. Muslims in Middle East are
avoiding religious gatherings and offering prayers at
home. Easing restrictions or lifting lockdown too
early is dangerous. It is meant to open the gates of
second wave of epidemic in the country lifting/
easing restrictions and international community.
Virus caused over 1, 70, 000 worldwide deaths as of
April 21, 2020 [2]. It is feared that the pandemic
will resurface in 2024 or in 2030. The
mismanagement of the second wave of pandemic
will result in strict lockdown. Fear that the pain
suffered by the nation, the hardships, economic
problems faced all will go in vain will make people
cautious. Threat that pandemic will resurface will
make people cautious. People will become more
hygienic and probably avoid shaking hands in
future.
International system is based on “liberal principles.”
It calls for international cooperation through
institutions and cooperation through economics.
However, in post Covid-19 era we will see global
consensus on strict border controls [3],
environmental protection and improved health
standards. This emerging trend which inherits seeds
of development is beneficial for developing
countries. It inherits the prospects of weakening the
traditional system. States are exercising coercive
measure to control the pandemic. Stringent
measures applied by the states will be exercised in
future. States would gain more internal sovereignty
vis-à-vis its masses in the post Covid-19 era.
Certainly, governments will exercise powers in the
name of state and become more authoritative and
powerful internally. States will become more
assertive in domestic political and legal discourses
[4]. Post pandemic era will challenge liberal
principle emphasising human rights, mobility, free
trade and globalization. World governments will
become authoritative. Strict measures cannot be
fully implemented in democracies. However, it will
be effectively implemented in dictatorial regimes. In
post pandemic era citizens in democracies will
remain vulnerable to future pandemics and secure in
dictatorial regimes.
2 Research Methodology
Empirical studies available on subject affirms social
scientists have used descriptive analytical method to
explore event, institutional functioning, understand,
explain and prove or refute existing social
phenomenon. This academic paper is based on
qualitative research/ method with interconnected
theoretical tracks including liberalism and realism.
First segment of this study highlights integration of
world economy through use of high-speed internet
resulting in digitalization of world economy. World
cooperation through institutional framework is
application of neo-liberal institutionalism [5].
Authors claim prevalent world order is changing.
Guidelines are borrowed from theory of realism to
predict the nature of evolving order. Paper brings
into limelight potential competition between China
and West led by United States (US) [6]. Realist
philosophy helps readership in understanding
potential crisis and the development of conflicting
interests. Questionnaire was circulated by authors to
conduct interviews. Keeping in view contagious
nature of Covid-19 interviewee responded via
What’s App texts, audio-video calls, audio messages
and emails. Former high ranking Pakistani military
officials (retired Lieutenant General and former
Director General Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI),
retired Lieutenant Colonel, experts in the field with
highest degrees e.g. Ph.Ds. were interviewed to
complete this particular study. Diplomatic staff of
the Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan in
Islamabad and Pakistani diplomat serving in the
Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in
Amman, Jordan and former Ambassador of Pakistan
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were also approached. Author also approached
Washington based Stimson Centre research analyst
for her views. However, views expressed here does
not represent the Centre or the Republic of
Azerbaijan or Government of Pakistan. Ex-Project
Manager, European Institute for Educational
Development currently living in Moscow Russia
was also approached for his views. It is safe to
assert that the major chunk of this research is hence
based on primary sources. Paper views global
pandemic through dispassionate analysis. Authors
have analysed this pandemic using empirical
evidence to examine Covid-19 spread, recurring
fallout, intensity and its impact on the global order.
This academic research focuses on changes and
transformation in post Covid-19 world. Central
objective of this paper is to highlight that change is
international system and domestic arena is
inevitable. First segment of this paper focuses on
economic crisis. Second section focuses on changes
and transformation in international system. It
discusses four different scenarios. Third part of this
paper sheds light on the importance of technology
and terms it Ubiquitous. Fourth portion discusses
loopholes in the health sector. Fifth segment
discusses Covid-19 provides imputes to
transnational jihadi organizations e.g. Islamic State
known for its savages to plan biological terrorism.
Sixth part bring into limelight the Changing Socio-
Political Culture followed by the recommendations.
3 Economic Crisis
Uncertainty is looming as economic crisis have
affected European, American and Chinese
economies. The World Bank (WB) and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that the
world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is $ 88
trillion, the world governments owe $ 70 trillion.
United States (US) alone owes US $19.4 trillion or
24 percent [7]. World economy is in the depths of a
recession. Chinese GDP reduced by 6.8 percent [8].
In March, 2020 economists predicted that United
States (US) economy will reduce by 24 % in the
second quarter of 2020. This record decline in US
GDP is the result of Covid-19 pandemic.
Unemployment rate in US was recorded 3.5% prior
to the pandemic. Several industrial units in US are
completely shut down others are partially closed. It
will increase unemployment by 9% due to the
infectious disease [9]. Wall Street Forecaster JP
Morgan predicted that April-June, 2020 will result
in 14% decline in the GDP. Leaving behind the
effects 1932, the Great Depression as it reduced US
GDP by 13% [10]. In 1958, the modern day worst
recorded economic crisis of 1958 was recorded 10%
[11]. US as it is severely affected by health and
economic crises will exacerbate challenges for the
incumbent government and the US Presidential
candidates. Presidential candidates will have to
devise a substantial economy policy prior to election
campaign.
i. Lieutenant General (Retd.) Asad Durani
on Economic Hit-men.
Durani former Director General (DG) ISI
believes that the Bretton Wood agencies—
IMF, World Bank, WTO etc.—have run their
course, but in their present shape they would
no longer be controlling the developing
economies, through their “hit-men,” [12].
ii. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Virtual
Business will flourish but Capitalism will
remain Unchallenged.
Sharyar believes that in post Covid-19 world
the global economic system macroeconomic
principles will remain unchallenged. Virtual
business will flourish as it provides
assurances to owners of secure investment
[13]. It can absorb shocks of pandemics and
global economic crisis. Countries will invest
more in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and
Information Technology (IT). Future belongs
to AI and IT as it inherits the potential to
enable countries, business firms and
individuals to survive major economic shocks
and crisis. Yet, rules of the business
(macroeconomics and microeconomics) will
be governed by the principles of capitalism.
Capitalism will remain unchallenged,
unparalleled in post pandemic era.
iii. Digitalization of the currency and the
Creation of Quantum Computer.
The rise of digital currency and continued
dissipation of currency notes is inevitable. A
major cause of the proliferation of Covid-19
is paper currency. Contrarily, digital currency
prevents spread of contagious diseases.
Digitalization of the currency will lead
economic institutions to collaborate with
states and create quantum computer as a
security thread. Quantum computer will keep
record of economic activities, monitor flow of
money and transitions made by its citizens.
However, smooth functioning of the current
economic system requires cooperation among
nation and conflict avoidance. If major
economies of the world US and European
Union decides to wage economic war also
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known as trade war against China it will
result in adverse economic crisis. It will cause
large scale recession. Possible spread of any
such crisis in future can push the states to
restrict the movement of goods and people
across the states frontiers, however, this
seems very unlikely given the existing
economic interdependence.
4 Changing International System
This section discusses four different scenarios. First,
US perhaps will reconsider its role and adopt policy
of isolations. Second scenario discusses China’s
centric new world order. Third, US will collapse and
regional powers will emerge. Fourth, US and its
allies may adopt hostile policy against Beijing due
to traditional Thucydides trap.
i. Scenario One, US will reconsider its Role
and Adopt Policy of Isolations.
Dramatic decline in world economy results
from coronavirus pandemic. It is resulting in
great economic depression leaving behind the
effects of 1929. Prevalent international
system will either be transformed or a
completely new global system will emerge.
Over 701,681 cases of infections were
recorded 35, 371 Covid-19 related deaths
were reported in US. Covid-19 related death
rate is higher than American casualties
recorded in Iraq and Afghan wars. US State
Department and BBC reported that 2,400 US
soldiers were killed and over 20,000 were
injured by mid-2019 in Afghanistan [14]. US
Department of Defence reported that 4,431
American soldiers were killed and 31,994
were wounded in Iraq war as of April 13,
2020 [15]. In World War I (WW-I) 57,460
American soldiers were killed due to
influenza [16]. In post WW-I era Washington
helped in establishing the League of Nations
but it did not join it. Instead US adopted
policy of isolation. In Modern history
Washington adopted policy of détente owing
to large number of military casualties it
suffered in Vietnam War leading to Paris
Peace Accord in January, 1973 [17]. Present
day US is severely affected with Covid-19.
Economic pressure, widespread infection and
psychological affects require a balanced
approach and a comprehensive policy to
overcome twofold health and economic
crises. Calamity hit US perhaps will
temporarily reconsider its role in global
affairs to focus on its internal/domestic
affairs.
ii. Scenario Two, China will replace US and
issue Beijing Tailored World Order.
Economically stable China will replace US
and fill the vacuum, if US makes a decision to
reconsider its major power role. Beijing
centric new world order can emerge. Habib
believes that Beijing wants to avoid
confrontation and peacefully rising through
soft model. China believes in and it is
practically applying liberal tenants of mutual
cooperation. It launched Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) [18] to enable other states to
reap the benefits of cooperation. Contrarily
US strategy is focused on world domination.
It can be traced to post World War II (WW-
II). Abbasi in support of this view stated that
the infectious disease has shaken the very
foundations of imperialism backed by Petro
dollar. US is weakening economically. It
owes huge economic debt to Chinese
Business Empire [19] Beijing economically
ousted US from its dominant position. It
fulfils the prerequisites to dominate the
international system as a major power. It will
be accepted as hegemon in post lockdown
period as soon as Yuan is accepted as
alternative to Petro dollar. China will come
out of this economic and health crisis and
there are sign of it.
iii. Scenario Three, US will Collapse and
Regional Powers will emerge.
Economic crisis coupled with health crisis is
viewed as an indicator and it is bringing an
end to American dominated unipolar system.
It is early to predict post Covid-19 era
international structure. Probably, US
dominant position may be replaced with
multilateralism [20]. In post pandemic period
international system will be dominated by
regional powers and multilateralism will
emerge as a powerful tool [21]. However, in it
is possible if alternate currencies or Yuan
replaces the dollar as a world currency. If the
Chinese decide to replace the US as the main
financier of W.H.O and other UN agencies
the world would spin in the opposite direction
as far as the monetary equilibrium and its
implications in UNs are concerned. The rifts
between W.H.O. as well as with other UN
organisations and the US policy makers will
surely see major changes in these world
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bodies. Economic change will result in geo-
political changes e.g. the formation of new
alliances or the developments of new blocks
on the geopolitical horizon. Geo strategic
reshaping will spell doom for some and a
bonanza for others. It can result in new
conflicts and new wars. The art of war will
undergo changes resulting in upheavals in the
multiple trillion-dollar war industry which
thrives on engineered conflicts and stage
managed bilateral disputes. Presumably, the
world would realise the catastrophic impact of
such pandemic for all and sundry and would
cooperate more in reforming the existing
political and legal discourses while utilising
the multilateral fora like UN. By this way,
they will try to cut the impact of such
catastrophic event in future while devising
conforming mechanisms at international fora.
iv. Scenario Four, US and Allies May Adopt
Hostile Policy against Beijing due to
traditional Thucydides Trap.
Washington waged wars in post-Soviet era
for world domination. US used force against
Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and Syria. US is
calling infection as China virus rather than
calling it Covid-19. US is trapped in
“traditional Thucydides dilemma,” [22]. It
means that Washington considers Beijing as a
threat to its dominant position in the
established international system. US believes
China is revisionist power and wants to
change pre-existent international system in its
favour. Beijing is raising at the cost of US
strategic economic and political interests.
Technologically advanced US is better
equipped with medical equipment. It can
overcome prevailing economic and health
crises. Infection caused deaths in senior
citizens, living a retired life and considered as
burden on economy. Crux of the matter is
productive youth will prevail as well as
prevalent international order will survive.
World hegemon and its allies will come out
of the crisis and international system will not
collapse. Contrarily, in post Covid-19 era US
and its allies will impose economic sanctions
on China. Germany has already sent £ 135
billion bill to China for Coronavirus damages
[23]. US will adopt hostile policy toward
China in future [24]. Washington and its
allies will blame Beijing if pandemic
resurfaces in future and point fingers on
China for purportedly not sounding and
informing the countries of the origin of virus
in time which led to the spread of the disease
like wildfire throughout the world. Certainly,
in this contest India will be US bogey to
receive advance military technology.
Islamabad should cautiously play its role and
avoid joining any bloc. It can best secure its
interests by remaining non-aligned.
4 Ubiquitous Technology
i. Digitalization of the Social Contract.
Thomas Hobbes in his book Leviathans
published in 1651 gave idea of “Social
Contract,” [25]. It requires people to obey
their governments in return states provides
security to its citizens. It was existent until
recently in the analogue world. Covid-19
changed the dynamics of the pre-existent
world it gave birth to digitalization of the
world. It requires a “New Social Contract,”
for digitalized world. Andrew Keen believes
that digital world is thriving [26]. During this
lockdown we are connected to the outside
world via internet and technology. Our
smartphones connected with internet are
ensuring our survival.
ii. Ubiquitous Technology will Undermine
Human Freedom
One thing is certain that in post Covid-19
world technology will become ubiquitous like
this pandemic. Companies producing laptops,
smartphones, internet providers, Microsoft
and relevant apps including Whats App,
Zoom, Facebook, Apple and Google will
dominate every aspect of life. Our
communications, businesses, lives, economic
transitions and education system will become
dependent on gadgets. Cameras, voice
recorders, travelling and pinpoint locations
will undermine our freedom and compromise
our privacy.
iii. Governments Surveillance System will
Improve as People will Surrender their
Privacies.
Governments will use this data for
surveillance and perhaps against opposition
parties. People will rely on technology
knowing that their communication is
monitored, travel history is maintained,
transactions and conversations are being
recorded and it can be used against them. Fear
of being extinguished force people to
surrender their privacy sign new social
contract with their governments to surrender
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digital privacy in return governments will
ensure their analogue security.
5 Loopholes in Health Sectors
It was widespread believe that Western countries
have most advanced medical equipment and
facilities to deal with medical emergencies. Virus
exploded the myth of European Union (EU). The
organization could not help Italian and French
government when they needed it most. Death toll in
Italy reached 22, 745 and recorded cases of
infection were 172, 434 as of April 18. France death
toll reached 18, 681 and 147, 969 cases of
infections. Death toll in Spain crossed 20,000 on
April 18, 2020 [27]. Covid-19 has exposed the
Western communities’ weakness in health sector. It
exposed the grey areas and flaws in the healthcare
system of economically stable and industrially
advanced countries. Earlier efforts were
concentrated on reduce threats of nuclear weapons
use, proliferation of nuclear technology to non-
nuclear weapons states (NNWS) and to prevent
falling of nuclear and radiological material in the
hands of rouge elements to prevent nuclear
terrorism. Post Covid-19 world will give acute
importance to health sector and allocate funds for
research and provision of better health facilities to
its citizens. Vulnerability of the People to threats
emanating from infectious disease like Covid-19
will result in realization that huge military spending
alone is not the only way to secure humanity from
impending crisis. Security against pandemics will be
parallel to the traditional concept of security. In post
Covid-19 world people will demand from their
governments to spend and concentrate more on
socio-economic sector especially the health sector.
Earlier concept of collective security was confined
to states alone. In post Covid-19 world the notion of
collective security will also be applicable to humans
as well due to the realization that contagious disease
requires governments and people to cooperate while
disregarding the racial, linguistic and other
differences amongst them. Common threat to
humanity in the form of COVID-19 can be
prevented through cooperative security to minimise
the catastrophic impact of such crisis.
6 Prospects for Biological Terrorism
i. UNSC Resolution 1540.
On April 28, 2004 United Nations Security
Council (UNSC) passed resolution 1540 to
prevent proliferation of nuclear material and
nuclear terrorism with support of international
community [28].
ii. Nuclear Terrorism vis-a-vis Biological
Terrorism.
Covid-19 poses threat to established
international system, our ways of life and
culture. It is difficult for terrorists to acquire
nuclear weapons, nuclear technology and
weapons grade fissile material to detonate
nuclear device. Covid-19 related widespread
deaths can provide imputes to terrorists
organizations e.g. Islamic State of Iraq and
Syria (ISIS) also known as Islamic State of
Iraq and Levant to carryout biological attacks
against its adversaries. ISIS is known for
organized violence, savages and it encourages
its followers to carryout lone wolf attacks in
their countries of residence. Conversely, there
is no reason to ignore probability of
biological terrorism by non-state terrorist
organizations. State biosecurity cannot be
ignored in post Covid-19 period.
iii. Wester will be the Prime Target of
Biological Terrorism.
Western states will be prime victims of it
because terrorist organizations are able to
carry-out assault/violent or unlawful physical
attacks. However, such attacks require huge
cache of conventional arms and ammunition
and could not be acquired resulting in failure
to carry-out assault attacks in the West. It is
therefore speculated transnational terrorist
organizations will attempt biological attacks
in the West.
iv. Drivers of Globalization will Proliferate
Chemical and Biological Terrorism.
Post Covid-19 world will be vulnerable to
chemical and biological terrorism (CBT)
supported by drivers of globalization. The
globalisation of terrorism and globalization of
Covid-19 are certified ills of globalizations.
Strategic and political analysts agree that it is
reverse of globalization. If terrorists are able
to carry-out chemical or biological attack
CBT will affect victim state at massive scale
as chemical and biological agents inherits the
potential to spread through international
travellers.
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v. Biological terrorism and Suicide Biological
Missions.
Terrorists are ready to sacrifice their lives for
their cause and ideology. Individuals ready to
sacrifice their lives cannot be deterred. If it is
difficult for terrorist’s organization to
carryout biological attacks terrorists will
concentrate their efforts on developing
biological agents resulting in diseases to
transfer from humans to humans. Motivated
terrorists will infect themselves with
biological agents to spread it by covering
distant countries. By the time victim state
realises that it has come under biological
attack it will be too late. Citizens will have to
go through painful experience of lockdown,
joblessness, psychological problems and
social distancing. Biological agents as
compared to nuclear weapons can be easily
produced in laboratories. It is safe to assert
that biological terrorism is difficult to be
detected. It can result in dire consequences,
more mortalities and easy to be carried out by
hard-core terrorist organizations. Contagious
nature, lengthy procedure and the difficulties
to develop vaccine for curing victims of
biological agent will results increased death
rate. Certainly, it will be difficult to detect
and prevent terrorists from developing and
preparing biological agents in their
laboratories.
7 Changing Socio-Political Culture
Governments across the world have imposed
lockdown and restricted 4.5 billion peoples’
movements. The contagious nature of Covid-19
forced governments to impose ban on interstate
public transport, global travel, social gatherings are
restricted and religious congregations have been
banned.
i. Social Distancing Emerged as a New
Normal.
Social distancing emerged as a new normal. It
will continue to be the new normal in post
recovery period. Overnight normalcy cannot
be expected it will gradually restore.
Contiguous disease changed the work ethics
around the world. Human life was
materialistic and busy. It has become simple.
Covid-19 drastically changed our lives by
imposing restrictions on analogue meetings,
gatherings and we can ensure our survival by
strictly abiding by social distancing. People
will be hesitant about large social gatherings
even after the lockdown is lifted. The
response of American nationals is mix some
wants the government to continue the
restrictions while others want to lift the ban. It
will take a long time to restore normalcy.
ii. Second Wave of Pandemic and the
Protracted Lockdown.
Delay in development of the vaccine will
further delay lifting of the ban. It is hoped
that lockdowns though will be eased by the
end of June. However, threat of second wave
cannot be refuted. Governments in this period
will ensure increased testing to identify
Covid-19 patients and isolate them to prevent
the further spread of infection. It is pertinent
to assert that in second wave mismanagement
cannot be afforded. Government authorities
and people will carry-out measures to perform
better due to the bitter experiences faced
during the first wave.
The worst-case scenario is if vaccine could
not be developed early lockdown will
continue. Researchers with Harvard fear that
vaccine if not developed lockdown will
continue till 2022 [29]. It means social
distance will continue if sanctity of this newly
evolved norm is violated the pandemic will
resurface with vengeance. Infection will
continue to spread and result in deaths,
economic recession,
joblessness/unemployment, and hunger and
poverty will increase at an accelerated pace
[30]
iii. Psychological Impact of Covid-19.
Digital communication and interaction is not
in the reach of everyone. Social distancing is
causing fear of joblessness, economic loss
resulting in mild depression or constant
depression. People are lockdown in their
homes programmes aired on television and
the culture depicted in these programmes is
influencing our family values and culture
[32]. Pandemic is changing our cultural
values and we are reverting back to traditional
family system. Our bonds with our families
and friends are improving and relations are
coming closer.
iv. Online/Working from Home.
It is safe to assert that earlier software
developers, telemarketers and emergency
response teams were working either from
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home or online. In the wake of pandemic
employees from various professions including
schools and university teachers are asked to
work online from their homes. Patients are
ordering pharmacies to deliver their
medicines at their mailbox slots.
v. Western Democracies will Curb Civil
Liberties to Curb Second Wave of
Pandemic.
Western democracies in this first wave are
severely affected by the virus. This claim is
based on the abovementioned death tolls.
Contrarily, authoritative regimes restricted
movements of their citizens hence prevented
loss of precious lives. The second wave will
force democratic states to follow the foot
prints of authoritative regimes and prevent
proliferation of infections and loss of lives.
Loss of life will result in imposing strict
lockdown.
vi. Political Instability, Internal Displacements
the Spawning of Terrorist and Criminal
Organization.
Economic crisis if mismanaged can result in
political instability and resentment among
masses. It results in anxiety, pain, emotional
instability, increases feelings of hatred, raises
anger among masses against the ruling elite.
Economic mismanagement leads to
widespread protests, lawlessness and use of
violence resulting in loss of life and damage
to public property. Poor innovative thinking
and less research activities causes lower
productivity [31], which create food shortage
and domestic violence. Governments are
toppled if political instability cannot be
controlled it leads to civil war and chaos.
Political and strategic instability in Yemen,
Libya, Syria, Iraq, Somalia and Afghanistan
has mushroomed tribal warlords, private
militias, criminal gangs, drug trafficking,
domestic and international terrorists
organizations. Instability is more favourable
to terrorist organizations rather than foreign
investors. Fear of life among masses results in
widespread internal displacements. Children
education is stopped conversely unemployed
and unskilled labour are easily recruited by
terrorist organizations.
8 Conclusion
This descriptive study claims that digitalization of
economy is inevitable. It proposes statesmen and
societies to adopt to political, economic, social
changes. Study claims states failure to practically
adopt digital economic system will result in
economic crisis. Misleading of the crisis will result
in internal political unrest and civil war. Economic
crisis of 1990s leading to political chaos in Thailand
supports abovementioned claim. Study predicts
terrorists ready to die for their cause can inject
deadly contagious virus with intentions to spread it
across continents. Difficult to detect biological
terrorism poses new threats to humankind and
particularly the West.
Covid-19 cannot be typified as a Black Swan rather
it is Pink Flamingo [33]. Black Swan is
unpredictable event and the consequences could not
be measured. Pink Flamingo is predictable event
ignored due to cognitive biases of a senior leader or
a group of leaders trapped by powerful institutional
forces [34]. There is widespread believe that Second
Wave of the pandemic starts at the 51st day such
pandemic. It can only be contained if completed
lock down or even curfew is imposed. Government
will have to take strict measures to curb the second
wave otherwise all sufferings will go in vain and the
entire health system as doctors have cautioned on
media will collapse.
Rigorous measures can prevent the outbreak of
second wave of Covid-19. If social distancing is not
followed the graph of infections can go sky-high
and the fragile health system in third world
countries can entirely collapse. Keeping in view the
nature of Covid-19 as it transfers from human to
human. Masses ignoring social distancing will be
exposed to Covid-19. Apparently, lack of
information or the wrong information, can amplify
the effects of the infectious disease. It can cause
economic, social and psychological problems
leading to political instability. Government should
disseminate correct information among masses
through social media, television and radio
programmes to avoid aforestated worst case
scenario.
Healthcare system exposed the discrepancies and
proved in the West that wealthy families and
individuals can afford medical facilities. It will
create feelings of resentment among masses. It
therefore requires governments to revisit current
national healthcare systems and improve it.
Priorities of the government in the coming years
will, in addition to supporting the economy,
obviously be health and security, other crucial
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sectors such as education and the environment must
not be allowed to suffer.
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Contribution of Individual Authors to the
Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting
Policy)
Dr. Ashfaq Ahmed: Political, social, economic
changes introduced by novel pandemic generated
idea to pen down changes introduced by the
pandemic, develop research methodology, conduct
interviews and set course of the paper. Muhammad
Owais supervised in data collection, designed
interview questions and manuscript of interviews.
Atta Muhammad helped in general guidance and
assessing economic impact of Covid-19 on world
economic system. Kifayat Ullah developed
linkages between Covid-19 economic shocks and
psychological impacts for the society. Muhammad
Usman worked on proof reading and technical
aspect of given research paper and being
corresponding author was responsible for paper
submission, continuously remained in contact with
editor and incorporated reviewers’ suggestions.
Sources of Funding for Research Presented in a
Scientific Article or Scientific Article Itself
The funding for this research is mainly contributed
by all authors on sharing basis and partially funded
by Higher education commission (HEC) of Pakistan
through their respected institutions.
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
(Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0)
This article is published under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
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DOI: 10.37394/232015.2022.18.50
Ashfaq Ahmed, Atta Muhammad,
Muhammad Owais, Kifayat Ullah,
Muhammad Usman
E-ISSN: 2224-3496
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