Effectiveness of the Management System in the Conditions of Military

Operations and Crisis Situations

MYKOLA PUGACHOV1, VOLODYMYR PUGACHOV2, MARGARYTA RAYETS3, NATALIA

MAKHNACHOVA4, MYKOLA SERBOV 5

1Food Department, Institute of Agrarian Economics, UKRAINE

2 Food Department, Institute of Agrarian Economics, UKRAINE

3 Department of Ecology and Technologies of Environmental Protection, UKRAINE

4Department of Management and Administration, Faculty of Economics, Management and Law,

Vinnytsia Institute of Trade and Economics of State University of Trade and Economics, UKRAINE

5 Department of Public Administration and Environmental Management, Faculty of Computer

Science. Management and Administration, Odessa State Environmental University, UKRAINE

Abstract: - The management system is a complex multifactorial process. Analysis of management processes

allows you to determine a set of influencing factors to ensure results in accordance with the set goals and tasks

of a strategic and operational nature. In conditions of external instabilities, management processes are

implemented in the system of new requirements and requests. Theoretical approaches to defining the concept of

management as a system are considered. The article examines management models in conditions of instability

and external challenges, compares them, and determines research directions. The trends in the development of

management systems are analyzed, new trends in the development of management systems are determined,

which are determined under the influence of external factors the pandemic of the coronavirus infection and the

full-scale military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. By implementing the method of expert

assessments, the ranking of risk management factors as a basic element of management in conditions of

instability was developed and carried out. Based on a survey among experts, a risk ranking matrix was

proposed. Based on the developed risk ranking matrix, a model of anti-crisis management in conditions of

instability and external challenges was developed. Methodological recommendations on the practical

implementation of the developed model into the management system are given. The theoretical-methodical and

scientific-practical aspects of the implementation of the risk management model are analyzed. The possibilities

of implementing risk management processes as a basic model of the anti-crisis management system by

overcoming risks, preventing them, or minimizing risks that cannot be avoided have been identified.

Key-Words: - management, management system, risk management, management effectiveness, anti-crisis

management

Received: April 15, 2022. Revised: May 27, 2023. Accepted: June 19, 2023. Published: July 11, 2023.

1 Introduction

The effectiveness of the management system is

complex. Management can be divided into

functions: planning, organization, motivation, and

control. Strategic (in the long term) and tactical

(goals and tasks in the short term) can be defined as

specific directions. Management areas are

distinguished separately: personnel, finance,

operational and business processes, procurement,

quality, and other areas. However, in the conditions

of crisis phenomena and instability, all areas of

management are considered based on the provisions

of the risk management system. A risk event is

considered a potentially possible occurrence of

certain situations that can negatively or positively

affect business processes. Traditionally, risks are

considered negative phenomena that bring business

losses. However, a broader understanding of the

concept of “risk” makes it possible to form not only

approaches to the prevention of negative events but

also to create tools for the realization of potential

opportunities that arise in the business entity in the

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process of transformations of the external

environment. With the onset of the coronavirus

pandemic, which has become a global challenge for

the international economy and socio-political and

social systems, risk management has increased its

relevance. In particular, it is expedient to identify

global challenges to the global health care system,

global trade, the tourism industry, and hospitality,

which were actively developing before the start of

quarantine restrictions. Only a business that had

high indicators of financial stability, solvency,

profitability, and margin of safety ensured stable

functioning. With the beginning of the full-scale

military aggression of the Russian Federation in

Ukraine, the world found itself in conditions of new

challenges. For Ukraine and the world, this has

become the biggest challenge since the Second

World War. More than 8 million refugees have

increased the burden on the social welfare systems

of Ukraine and European countries. The amount of

emergency financial assistance for Ukraine from the

International Monetary Fund amounted to 1.4

billion US dollars. The indicators of spending on

defense needs became a record. All these factors

have determined risks for social and economic

systems around the world. The transition from the

resource dependence of the European Union to the

fuel and energy resources of the Russian Federation

affected inflationary expectations and market

conditions, which were able to level off only at the

beginning of 2023. These challenges and risks of

social transformations require the search for

effective management mechanisms that would allow

overcoming risks and ensure the development of

economic systems.

So, considering the relevance of anti-crisis

management processes, the article sets a goal: to

model risk management processes as a basic

element of management in conditions of global

challenges and instability.

To achieve the goal of the study, the following tasks

were performed:

– an analysis of research works dedicated to the

analysis and development of management

models in the conditions of crisis phenomena

was carried out,

– trends in the development of social systems are

determined,

– a risk ranking matrix in the risk management

system was developed,

– a crisis management model was built,

– developed methodological recommendations for

the practical implementation of the anti-crisis

management model in the business process

management system.

2. Literature Review

The development of management systems in the

context of crisis phenomena determines the set of

management models developed by the authors

through research analysis and practical

implementation. For further research, it is proposed

to choose the best practices for building effective

management systems in crisis conditions by

analyzing the developed models and methods.

In the conditions of crisis phenomena, the

management system works under new requirements.

The duration of crisis challenges determines the

need for a complex approach to solving the tasks.

The model of anti-crisis management should be

defined as a system of tools aimed at creating

conditions for effective work in the processes of

transformations and social turbulence. It is

appropriate to note that the first tool that most

managers begin to implement in the context of crisis

phenomena is the restructuring and reduction of

costs of the economic entity. However, strategic

tasks can be implemented only if the focus is on

development and scaling, and not on reduction and

closure. Considering the expectations and forecasts

of stakeholders, it is possible to determine the tools

of a comprehensive, long-term, rational approach,

focused on overcoming risks and crisis phenomena.

Therefore, it is expedient to determine the projection

of new forms of internal and external cooperation as

a task of management in crisis conditions [Larreina,

M. and Gartzia, L. (2017), Allal‐Chérif, O. and

Maira, S. (2011)].

An interesting example of the formation of anti-

crisis management tools is the formation of youth

leadership. The system of youth leadership is the

basis of the formation of the future effective

management system. Analyzing youth leadership in

the context of crisis phenomena, the elements of the

management model in the context of crises were

highlighted: systematicity, complexity,

multifunctionality, mobility, adaptability,

structuring of influencing factors, and the search for

management tools for each factor. The analysis of

the case of youth leadership as an element of the

anti-crisis management system determines the

company's transformations, the company’s path in

2014 after the start of the anti-terrorist operation, the

economic crisis, the coronavirus pandemic since

2019, and the full-scale military invasion of the

Russian Federation in 2022 is investigated. The

management tools that were reflected in the

management model of the analyzed company should

be defined as follows: the transformation of

business models in accordance with requirements

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and requests, construction and development of

corporate culture, creation of a development

ecosystem, and use of outsourcing services. The

analysis of the work of enterprises in the conditions

of the pandemic identified a number of management

tools aimed at overcoming its consequences, which

were combined into the following groups:

economic, social, intellectual, technical,

information, and human capital [Grieco, C. (2022)].

One of the elements of the management system is

the organizational structure. Organizational

provision of management tools plays an important

role, especially in the conditions of crisis

phenomena. It is worth noting that the restructuring

of organizational structures in crisis conditions can

lead to even more negative consequences. Some

researchers determined the impact of risk factors

and crisis situations on the management system and

its effectiveness. The hypothesis has been proven

that any organizational changes and transformations

in themselves are a crisis factor that has an even

greater impact on the current situation. Therefore, it

is advisable to consider the possibility of not

restructuring the organizational system, but its

rationalization, which will lead to the less negative

impact and will not have negative psychological

effects on the team, which is the basis of stress

resistance in conditions of risky situations and crisis

phenomena. The hypothesis was proven by

analyzing restructuring processes in international

companies during the economic crisis of 2007

[Appelbaum, S.H., Keller, S., Alvarez, H. and

Bédard, C. (2012)].

Numerous of the research are devoted to issues of

structuring the management system in various crisis

periods:

– the initial period involves the formation of

conditions to ensure the stability of the economic

system,

– the height of the crisis involves the

implementation of management mechanisms

aimed at extinguishing negative fluctuations and

ensuring the survival of the economic system,

– the final stage of the crisis determines the search

for new opportunities for a qualitatively new

state of the economic system.

Each stage involves different specifics of modeling

management processes, which are associated with

different requests and one or another stage of the

crisis [Adăscăliței, D. and Guga, Ș. (2018)].

An interesting study is devoted to the search for

universal mechanisms for the implementation of an

anti-crisis management system at the level of

cooperation between the public and private sectors.

The model of public-private anti-crisis management

involves the implementation of the following

algorithm:

– analysis and assessment of the problem,

– development of the stakeholder structure,

– conducting discussion sessions to ensure the

search for opportunities to overcome the crisis,

– development of a plan of measures to overcome

the crisis,

– regulatory and contractual regulation of the

processes of ensuring partnership,

– the creation of specific cooperation projects,

– implementation of projects,

– analysis of results and determination of

directions for further cooperation.

Such an algorithm makes it possible to present a

cyclical model of anti-crisis management at the

level of cooperation between public authorities and

the private sector, which is relevant in the context of

socio-political and socio-economic transformations

[Basílio, M. (2017)].

Analyzing the challenges of the coronavirus

pandemic, a number of scientific studies determine

the following management tools, which can be used

as a basis for the formation of an anti-crisis model

of management and risk management:

– prevention and minimization of operational and

strategic failures in business processes,

– development of organizational stability,

– the creation of a hierarchical model of potential

sources of the company's adaptability.

Determination of the role of the factors described

above and the hypothesis about the effectiveness of

their application are proven by using the methods of

Pareto analysis, Gray's theory, and by using full

interpretive structural modeling. The results of the

study identified the main sources of risk

management during crisis events: financial sources,

digitalization, and supplies. These three elements of

the model create conditions for ensuring the stability

of the economic entity in conditions of instability

[Matysek-Jędrych, A., Mroczek-Dąbrowska, K. and

Kania, A. (2022)].

Confirmation of the hypothesis about the need to

create conditions to ensure the stability of economic

systems made it possible to determine the priority

directions of management: ensuring financial

stability, solvency, and profitability. Operating

financial indicators allow you to determine the role

of the results of financial and economic activity in

ensuring anti-crisis management [Coletto, D. and

Guglielmi, S. (2018)].

The analysis of the impact of various methods of

financing on investment in assets and, as a result,

the impact on the formation of GDP determines the

interrelationships of the financial sector at the

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micro-level and macroeconomic indicators of

activity results. The methodology is based on three

formations of three equations using the combined

ordinary least squares method. The following

hypotheses for the formation of anti-crisis

management were confirmed by means of

mathematical calculations:

– the positive impact of private domestic

lending on state fiscal resources,

– the negative impact of private domestic lending

on GDP growth,

– the impact of internal private lending on the

reduction of investment activity of external

investors and the negative impact on the

structure of non-financial assets [Mehar, M.A.

(2022)].

Numerous of researches determine the

methodological, conceptual, and practical side of the

issue of anti-crisis management. In particular, the

methodological principles of anti-crisis management

determine the need to implement methods of

analysis, assessment, planning, organization, and

monitoring. Conceptual approaches determine the

formation and structuring of the prerequisites for the

development of anti-crisis management systems.

The practical implementation consists in finding

effective practical mechanisms and tools for

implementing the proposed methodological

approaches during real business processes [Fotou,

M. (2021), Rao, P., Verma, S., Rao, A.A. and Joshi,

R. (2022)].

New challenges for society, which are the biggest

since the Second World War, have become the

challenges of security architecture, international

relations, geopolitical spaces, and economic and

financial instability, which have become the

consequences of the beginning of the full-scale

military aggression of the Russian Federation

against Ukraine. In particular, a number of authors

offer risk management models based on the analysis

of the military conditions of the development of

socio-economic and socio-political institutions

[Olena Uhodnikova, Kostiantyn Viatkin, Sergii

Gordiienko, Roman Viatkin & Natalia Moroz (29

November 2022), Oxford Analytica (2022)]

Therefore, theoretical and theoretical-methodical

approaches to determining the specifics of

management were analyzed, requests to

management systems in the context of crisis

phenomena were identified, and advantages and

disadvantages of business process management

models in the context of crisis phenomena and

challenges and transformations were analyzed, and

determined through comparative analysis. However,

it is expedient to analyze modern challenges of a

socio-political and socio-economic nature, in order

for the model developed in the study to meet

modern demands. For the analysis of challenges and

risks, reports and open information on analysis from

international organizations were accumulated

[Official website of the organization UN, European

Parliament]. It is appropriate to highlight the

following:

– security risks of the spread of the military

conflict to larger territories, in particular, the

European continent, or going beyond the borders

of the continent,

– threats of increasing prices for fuel and

energy resources,

– threats to food safety,

– migration crisis,

– social security crisis,

– the growth of the poverty level and the threat of

hunger in the world,

– violation of transport and logistics routes,

– an imbalance of the world trade system,

– rising prices for food, utilities,

– consumer crisis.

Conducting further research will be based on the

results of a literature review and comparison of

management methods and models in the context of

crisis phenomena, as well as by considering the

challenges and risks that are the results of a full-

scale military invasion of the Russian Federation

into Ukraine.

3. Methodology

The article analyzes literary sources, which made it

possible to determine management models proposed

by numerous authors. The analyzed models consider

the challenges of the external environment of a

global nature, that is, they can be practically

implemented in conditions of instability. The

purpose of the developed models is to ensure the

stable development of business processes and

minimize the consequences of risks. Trends in the

development of business systems were determined

by analyzing crisis phenomena and their

consequences. The analysis was carried out by

accumulating official reports of international

organizations, their analysis, and empirical research

methods. The article presents the results of an expert

survey aimed at forming a risk management system.

In particular, the selection and ranking of risks were

carried out by experts. An expert survey was

conducted among the top and middle managers of

Ukrainian companies of large and medium-sized

businesses in the period of September-October

2022. 50 experts participated in the survey. The

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requirements for experts put forward in the study

were as follows: work as a manager for more than 5

years, work in crisis conditions (during a pandemic

or a full-scale military invasion), and work in large

and medium-sized companies. The experts were

asked to evaluate a set of risks formed by analyzing

literary sources and conducting a literature review.

Experts rated each risk on a 10-point scale based on

two indicators – the probability of occurrence and

scale of consequences. To ensure the relevance of

the assessment, the method of correlation analysis of

the results was applied and the critical minimum and

critical maximum indicators were discarded. As a

result of the ranking, each selected risk was

assigned a rank as the sum of experts' assessment

indicators. Based on the analysis, a risk ranking

matrix was developed, where three risk categories

are defined for further support of management

processes. On the basis of analysis and modeling, by

confirming the hypotheses that were put forward

based on the results of the analysis of literary

sources, and confirmed by the method of expert

evaluations, methodological recommendations were

developed for the practical implementation of the

anti-crisis management model in the business

process management system.

4. Results

The analysis of literary sources made it possible to

determine the main directions of anti-crisis

management:

– assessment and analysis of the current situation,

– projection of development trends by forecasting

the further course of events,

– determination of managing risks in conditions of

instability,

– development of management approaches and

management tools to minimize, avoid, and

overcome risks and their consequences in case of

risk occurrence,

– ensuring the implementation of strategic and

operational goals and objectives by introducing

anti-crisis management.

The study of the reports of international

organizations made it possible to determine the

structure of risks as elements of crisis phenomena,

in particular, the study proposes the following set of

risks with their grouping according to certain

characteristics:

– financial and economic risks: currency exchange

rate fluctuations, macroeconomic instability,

inflationary expectations, market deficit, food

crisis, banking sector rate crisis, the rising cost of

fuel and energy resources.

– technical and technological risks: energy

crisis, the crisis of information technology

development, the crisis of transport and logistics

schemes for the supply of high-tech materials, the

crisis of development of intellectual potential,

– security risks: the crisis of the spread of a full-

scale war, the crisis of the security architecture,

the risks of prolonging the military conflict in

Ukraine, the crisis of the imbalance of weapons

systems,

– geopolitical risks: the introduction of sanctions,

the breaking of international agreements,

disregard for the norms of international law,

trade wars, political and military conflicts,

– social risks: decrease in the quality of the

provision of medical services, decrease in the

quality of the provision of educational services,

the collapse of the medical system, a decrease in

the level of support for socially vulnerable

segments of the population, a decrease in the

standard of living of the population,

– digital space risks: cyber security, protection of

personal data, prevention of cyber-attacks,

hacking, information policy.

The definition of risk groups was compiled into a

questionnaire for conducting an expert survey.

Experts determined the assessment of the

probability of occurrence and consequences of

potential risks on a 10-point scale (where 1 is the

minimum probability and the minimum scale of

consequences, 10 is the maximum probability of

occurrence and the maximum scale of

consequences). A correlational analysis of the ratio

of experts' opinions was conducted, the answers

were averaged, the results of calculations and expert

assessments are presented in Table 1. By finding the

sum of the results of the survey on two indicators,

the risk rank was formed.

The selected risks were ranked using the assessment

matrix developed by the author – Table 2.

As a result of the analysis of expert assessments and

the creation of a risk ranking matrix, a model of the

formation of management tools for anti-crisis

management was developed - fig. 1.

Using the risk ranking model in practical activities,

it is possible to visually determine the place of risk

in the risk management system by conducting an

expert survey and further ranking according to the

algorithm developed in the article.

According to the rank of the risk, management tools

are developed aimed at overcoming it, preventing,

or minimizing its consequences.

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Table 1: Summarizing results of expert survey and risk ranking

Risk

Probability of

occurrence

The scale of the

consequences

Sum of

indicators

Rank

Financial and economic risks

currency exchange rate fluctuations

macroeconomic instability

inflationary expectations

market deficit

food crisis

banking sector rate crisis

rising cost of fuel and energy resources

Technical and technological risks

energy crisis

crisis of information technology development

crisis of transport and logistics schemes for the supply of

high-tech materials

crisis of intellectual potential development

Security risks

the crisis of the spread of a full-scale war

the crisis of the security architecture

the risks of prolonging the military conflict in Ukraine

the crisis of the imbalance of weapons systems

Geopolitical risks

introduction of sanctions

rupture of international agreements

disregard for international law

trade wars

political and military conflicts

Social risks

decrease in the quality of the provision of medical services

decrease in the quality of the provision of educational

services

the collapse of the medical system

a decrease in the level of support for socially vulnerable

segments of the population

a decrease in the standard of living of the population

Risks of the digital space

cyber security

personal data protection

prevention of cyber attacks

hacking, information policy

* Source: developed by the author based on the analysis of the results of the method of expert evaluations and

correlation analysis

Table 2: Risk ranking matrix

Rank

Sum of

indicators

Gradation

Characteristic

Management tools

20-17

Critical

the risk has high indicators of the probability of

occurrence and scale; therefore it requires a priority

response

implementation of preventive

management tools

16-13

Important

the risk has high indicators of the probability of

occurrence and scales, therefore, it requires an analysis of

the possibility of applying management tools

implementation of preventive

management tools

13-10

Significant

the risk has average indicators of probability of occurrence

and scale, so it is recommended to take it into account in

the management system

implementation of monitoring

less than 9

Unimportant

The risk has insignificant indicators of probability of

occurrence and scale, so it may not be considered or

considered as prospectively possible

management tools may not be

used

* Source: developed by the author

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Fig. 1: Risk ranking model

* Source: developed by the author

5. Discussion

As a result of the conducted research, models of

management in crisis situations were accumulated.

Based on the analysis of trends and trends, it was

determined that the pandemic and the full-scale

military aggression of the Russian Federation

against Ukraine have recently become the main

challenges for the management system. The main

consequences of global challenges were social

issues, security issues (military security architecture,

digital security, information security), and financial

and economic challenges associated with military

aggression: food security, fuel, and energy crisis,

and resource delivery crisis. The risk management

model, developed because of the research based on

the analysis of expert opinions and correlation

analysis, structured risks, ranked them and

developed a model that allows determining

management tools depending on the risk rank. The

following management tools are offered for each

risk rank:

Rank 1 – critical risks include the following

management tools:

– current critical analysis of the situation (internal

and external environment),

– constant monitoring of the current situation:

operational processes and business processes,

– increasing indicators of solvency and financial

stability (if risks are prevented),

– adjustment of strategic plans,

– adjustment of interest rate, deposit/loan rate for

financial institutions,

– the creation of a system of transformation of the

organizational structure to prevent the outflow of

personnel,

– use of the insurance system.

Rank 2 – risks include the following management

tools:

– creation and development of depreciation funds,

– formation of conditions for increasing

investment attractiveness,

– strategic planning and operational planning,

– current monitoring,

– insurance.

3rd rank of risks – risks involve the following

management tools:

– implementation of strategic and operational

plans,

– analysis, evaluation, and decision-making based

on relevant information,

– forecasting and modeling of development

processes.

Risks that have a minimum rank may not be

considered.

The method developed in the article makes it

possible to analyze, evaluate, and rank risks and

based on the risk management model, determine the

most effective anti-crisis management tools.

Practical implementation of the developed model

and evaluation and ranking system allows for

effective anti-crisis management aimed at

prevention, minimization, and avoidance of risks,

which is especially relevant in the conditions of

crisis situations and challenges. The discussion

point of the study is the development of the

proposed management tools, which can be

supplemented and improved. The topic of further

research can be the analysis of anti-crisis

management processes in specific spheres of

economic activity because they have their own

peculiarities and specifics.

6. Conclusion

As a result of the conducted research, it was

determined that the management system should be

transformed in accordance with external challenges,

be more flexible and adaptive. Using the example of

the analysis of situations with the global challenges

of the pandemic and the full-scale military

aggression of Ukraine, it was determined that in

conditions of external instability, management

should be based on anti-crisis approaches, that is,

the risk management process, which is implemented

in parallel to all areas of management, becomes

basic. The article has developed a risk management

model based on risk ranking. The developed model

makes it possible to identify priority areas of

management and remove those areas that are not

relevant. Graphic representation of the model allows

you to practically implement it without special

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knowledge and skills-specific skills. The article

proposes management tools that can be applied

according to the analyzed risk rank. Risk

management as an anti-crisis management system,

developed in research, aimed at the prevention,

minimization, or prevention of risks.

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Author Contributions:

Formal analysis, Volodymyr Pugachov;

Investigation, Mykola Pugachov; Methodology,

Natalia Makhnachova, Margaryta Rayets;

Resources, Volodymyr Pugachov; Software,

Mykola Serbov; Validation, Mykola Pugachov;

Writing—original draft, Mykola Serbov; Writing—

review and editing, Margaryta Rayets.

Sources of funding for research

presented in a scientific article or

scientific article itself

This research received no external funding

Conflict of Interest

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare

that are relevant to the content of this article.

Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0

(Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0)

This article is published under the terms of the

Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en

_US

DESIGN, CONSTRUCTION, MAINTENANCE

DOI: 10.37394/232022.2023.3.11

Mykola Pugachov, Volodymyr Pugachov,

Margaryta Rayets, Natalia Makhnachova, Mykola Serbov

E-ISSN: 2732-9984

159

Volume 3, 2023