Demographic Development of Russia within the Boundaries of Human

Capital Theory: Problems and Solutions

SERGEY VASENEV1, OLGA MALININA2, ALEXANDER N. MAKSIMENKO3,

EKATERINA SAPOZHNIKOVA3

Economics, Service and Entrepreneurship,

Institute of Service and Entrepreneurship (branch) of DSTU in Shakhty,

Shakhty, 147, Shevchenko str.

RUSSIA

2Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering,

Don State Technical University,

Rostov-on-Don, Gagarin Square, 1,

RUSSIA

3Faculty of Law,

Don State Technical University,

Rostov-on-Don, Gagarin Square, 1,

RUSSIA

Abstract: - The article outlines the role of the demographic situation in ensuring the development of the socio-

economic system of the country. In the process of empirical research, the dynamics of the list of indicators

characterizing the demographic situation in Russia is considered. The calculation of the absolute indicator of

the population is presented, which allows to reveal of the numerical losses of human capital. The fact that the

reduction of the country's population was due to the population of rural areas was established. It is also noted

that there was a constant increase in the number of population over working age, as well as a decrease in the

working-age population. The decrease in the existing volumes of human capital has led to certain economic

losses expressed in the form of lost GDP, which the socio-economic system has incurred. In the context of the

above trends, the preservation of the existing human capital, which can be assessed on the basis of the

dynamics of indicators: life expectancy and the number of marriages and divorces, becomes a priority. The

processes of human capital reproduction represent one of the important directions of demographic development

in Russia. The authors determined that these processes have a negatively directed tendency to change. This

problem is considered from the position of the functioning of the family institution and the dynamics of the

divorce process. An analytical study of statistical data allowed us to conclude that the intensity of marriages in

Russia during ten years was higher than the intensity of divorces. The calculated value of the coefficient of

preservation of family relations indicates an increase in the probability of reproduction of human capital. The

authors calculated the numerical value of reserve human capital in the form of the volume of potential labor

force, which can provide an additional volume of GDP.

Key-Words: - Demography, socio-economic system, population size, human capital, able-bodied population,

labor force.

Received: December 28, 2023. Revised: June 21, 2024. Accepted: July 15, 2024. Published: August 14, 2024.

1 Introduction

Demography as part of the modern scientific picture

of the world reveals answers to the most important

questions. Among them: are the real state of affairs

in the economy, the quality of the regulatory and

legal system, the specifics of the worldview of the

population, and many others. In particular, the

demographic structure determines the objective

basis for the “normality” of GDP growth rates, [1].

Studies have shown that the processes that

determine changes in population size, family

composition, and life expectancy also affect activity

in the labor market. As a result, economic growth is

either slowed down or stimulated.

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In this direction, the life expectancy of the

population has a contradictory impact. Thus, it is

possible to characterize the fact of reduction in the

size of the market of commodity producers

operating in conditions of monopolistic competition

due to the increase in life expectancy and aging of

the population, [2]. This fact, established on the

empirical data of the Japanese economy, can

probably be translated as a general pattern of the

impact of demographic development. Its

microeconomic justification seems to be a universal

strategy of reducing the birth rate due to the need to

create a “reserve fund” that ensures consumption in

old age.

The focus of Russian demographic policy on

increasing the life expectancy of the population may

have negative consequences in the future. Therefore,

an important direction of demographic policy is to

reduce risks by encouraging fertility. It should be

noted that the scientific work of the team of authors

proves that the age structure of the labor force is a

key factor in the growth of GDP per capita, [3]. The

demographic shift will enable economic growth in

Russia. However, this is difficult to achieve. The

problems of Russia's socio-economic system are

similar to those in Europe. There is a demographic

decline, which may adversely affect the growth

dynamics of a number of European countries, [4].

The peculiarities of demographic development

also influence the possibility of population

participation in economic relations and determine

the rate of return of such participation.

Consequently, the peculiarities of demographic

development affect the state and potential of human

capital utilization. Individual practical examples of

this process can be positioned by differences in

wage “penalties” for overeducated categories of the

population with different demographic

characteristics, [5]. The more divergent their values

are, the more demographic characteristics play a

role in income inequality, [6]. Therefore, we can

agree with the position that young people, as a

category of population with specific demographic

characteristics, are more exposed to risks that

prevent the full utilization of human capital, [7].

The degree of human capital utilization, largely

determined by the conditions and qualitative

features of employment, depends on demographic

data, [8]. They explain the essence of contemporary

processes of regionalization. Localizations with high

concentration of labor force and low fertility are

formed. Population from areas with a low level of

human capital output but a high birth rate tends to

move to these places, [9].

Demography, as part of the modern scientific

picture of the world, provides answers to the most

important questions. Among them: are the real state

of the economy, the quality of the regulatory and

legal system, the peculiarities of the population's

outlook, and many others.

The dynamics of the indicators characterizing

the demographic state is, among other things, an

empirical marker that reveals the supply level of the

socio-economic system with human capital. Human

capital is a key force driving technological progress

and social and economic prosperity, [10]. Therefore,

any fluctuations in the demographic state are

reflected in the supplies of the production and

economic system with the key resources. Thus, the

size of the population reflects the objective limits of

the available volumes of human capital utilization in

any socio-economic system. Russia characterized by

extremely heterogeneous development: there is

inequality related to geographical location,

availability of natural resources, inequality of

territories in terms of production factors, etc. [11].

Simultaneously, human capital progressively

replaces physical capital as the principal driver of

economic growth, [12].

Population aging and an associated slowdown in

economic growth is a major concern in many

countries, [13]. Authors used the demographic

dividend model to study the demographic

development of a country. His analysis is used in a

simulation with realistic demography to show how

human capital investment has varied in relation to

the changing demography, [14].

In 1992, for the first time in many years, an

excess of mortality over the birth rate was

registered. The demographic crisis in Russia, is

represented by the infamous intersection of the birth

rate and death rate curves, which has been called the

"Russian Cross". "Russian cross" is the name of the

demographic trend in Russia, caused by the

population in the last phase of the demographic

transition, characterized by a gradually increasing

mortality rate, [15].

2 Problem Formulation

The reduction of the existing volumes of human

capital has led to certain economic losses expressed

in the form of the GDP shortfall of the socio-

economic system. In the context of these trends, the

preservation of the existing human capital, which

can be assessed by the dynamics of indicators: life

expectancy, number of marriages and divorces,

becomes a priority. The processes of human capital

reproduction represent one of the important

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directions of Russia's demographic development.

Demographic processes have a negatively directed

tendency to change. This problem is considered

from the position of the functioning of the family

institution and the dynamics of the divorce process.

3 Materials and Methods

The analytical study in the article was conducted by

the authors with the help of methods of

mathematical analysis of statistical data provided by

the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian

Federation.

The authors of the article obtained panel data

characterizing the peculiarities of Russia's

demographic development in the context of eight

blocks:

1) main demographic indicators of Russia;

2) Dynamics of the demographic load coefficient

in Russia;

3) Statistical data for determining the value of the

average size of GDP produced by one unit of

human capital;

4) life expectancy of the Russian population;

5) The dynamics of divorce processes as an

indicator of family characteristics of support for

the reproduction of human capital in Russia;

6) Characterization of human capital in Russia

through the indicators of the labor force;

7) potential labor force as a reserve for increasing

the volume of human capital in the socio-

economic system of Russia;

8) characterization of the use of human capital in

Russia by groups of occupations.

The mentioned factual data were studied on the

basis of the estimation of chain growth rates. Four

indicators were calculated: the demographic load

coefficient, the average size of GDP produced by

one unit of human capital, and GDP losses,

determined taking into account deflator indices, of

the socio-economic system from human capital

attrition.

The analytical study in the article was carried

out by the authors using the methods of

mathematical analysis. The calculations of the

following indicators are presented:

 demographic load coefficient;

 the average size of GDP produced by one unit

of a human capital asset;

 GDP losses;

 average coefficient of family relations

preservation.

Let us calculate the value of the demographic

load coefficient using the formula.





(1)

where  – demographic load factor;



 – the number of population under working

age, persons;



 – the number of population over working age,

persons.;

 – number of working-age population,

persons.

Average GDP produced by one unit of human

capital in Russia over the period 2000-2021.



 







(2)



 - average size of GDP produced by

one unit of human capital asset;





- the average size of GDP for the

period under study, determined taking into account

the values of GDP deflator indices;





- average population for the period under

study.

The following formula is used to calculate GDP

losses 3.

     (3)

 – GDP losses, determined taking into

account deflator indices, of the socio-economic

system from human capital retirement;

 – GDP per 1 unit of human

capital;

∆POP - population dynamics.

Let's calculate the average coefficient of

preservation of family relations.

 



(4)

 – marital maintenance rate;

 – number of marriages per 1,000 population;

 – number of divorces per 1,000 population.

This paper is aimed at the analytical

identification of empirical data characterizing the

peculiarities of demographic development of the

socio-economic system of Russia. The article

attempts to study demographic problems through the

conceptual framework of human capital theory.

4 Results

Analysis of the population of Russia

Russia spends little on enhancing the quality of

human capital and life (education, health care,

infrastructure, and environment), [16].

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Table 1. Main demographic indicators of Russia

Indicator

Indicator value

Growth rate

2000

2010

2019

2020

2021

for the

period

annual

average

Population,

including:

146304,0

142865,0

146749,0

146171,0

145557,0

99,5 %

99,9 %

- urban

107072,0

105421,0

109563,0

109252,0

108896,0

101,7 %

100,4 %

- rural

39232,0

37444,0

37186,0

36919,0

36661,0

93,4 %

98,3 %

- under

working age

28387,0

23209,0

27442,0

27387,0

27318,0

96,2 %

99,0 %

- able-bodied

88040,0

87847,0

82678,0

81881,0

83227,0

94,5 %

98,6 %

- over the

working age

29877,0

31809,0

36629,0

36903,0

35013,0

117,2 %

104,0 %

In this regard, it should be noted that in Russia

in the last twenty years, there has been a negative

trend of population decline. In 2000, the population

of the Russian Federation amounted to 146304.0

thousand people, and by 2021 its value decreased to

145557.0 thousand people. This means that in

general for the period 2000-2021, the value of this

indicator decreased by 0.5%. However, this process

is best characterized not by the relative, but by the

absolute indicator of change. Let us define it:

       

Thus, over the period under study, the

population decreased by 747.0 thousand people,

which is a significant loss for Russia's human

capital. Its scale is partially masked by the relative

indicators of the average annual growth rate.

Judging by the latter, Russia's population decreased

by an average of only 0.1% annually (Table 1).

Table 1 also shows that the reduction in

population in Russia was due to the decline in

human capital in rural areas. This can be evidenced

by focusing on the dynamics of the urban and rural

population.

In the first case, during the study period 2000-

2021, there was an annual increase in the urban

population by an average of 0.4%. This provided an

increase in the number from 107072.0 to 108896.0

thousand people or by 1824.0 thousand people.

Statistical data confirm that the official number of

urban population in Russia for the analyzed period

has increased by 1.7%.

The opposite picture was observed when

studying the trend of change in the number of rural

population. In 2000-2021 there was a decrease in

the value of this indicator by 6.6%. In other words,

every year during the period under study the number

of rural population in Russia decreased by an

average of 1.7% per year. As a result, its value

decreased from 39232.0 to 36661.0 thousand

people, i.e. by 2662.0 thousand people.

Consequently, we can conclude that judging by

the changes in the main demographic indicators, the

volume of human capital in Russia during 2000-

2021 decreased in rural areas exclusively. Globally,

urban residents now outnumber people living in

rural areas, [17]. Urban areas play a significant role

in territory-oriented policies as the key drivers of

development processes of countries and regions,

[18]. Cities have even increased the stock of this

asset in their socio-economic system. The logical

explanation is the implementation of the

urbanization process, which in Russia is taking

place against the background of a general decline in

population.

Analysis of the age balance of the population

At the same time, it should be noted that the age

balance of human capital is not changing for the

better. Other authors argue that increased

employment rate of elderly or female workers

reduces the aggregate human capital growth while

increasing the available labor, [19]. Thus, the

analysis of the data presented in Table 1 has allowed

us to notice that the number of the population over

working age has been steadily increasing in 2000-

2021. In 2000, the number of this category was

estimated at 29877.0 thousand people, and in 2021

its value increased by 5136.0 thousand people to

35013.0 thousand. - up to 35013.0 thousand people.

This means that annually during the analyzed period

the number of the Russian population aged "above

working age" increased by 4.0%. As a whole, by the

results of the period under study, it increased by

17.2%.

The working age population decreased from

88040.0 to 83227.0 thousand people, i.e. by 4813.0

thousand people. The analysis of the annual

statistical data for the period under review showed

that the number of this category of Russian citizens

decreased on average by 1.4%. Over the period

there was a decrease of 5.5%.

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The dynamics of the age profile for 2010-2020

indicate its gradual "maturation", since the reduction

in the number of this group was mainly due to the

ordering of the ranks of economically inactive

young people aged 15-24, which, in turn, was the

result of a decrease in the total number of young

people in this age, [20].

The socio-economic system of Russia during

the period under study (2000-2021) showed signs of

a decline in the potential for replenishing the

working-age population. This can be evidenced by

the dynamics of the number of the population below

working age. On average for this period, its value

annually decreased by 1.0%, which resulted in a

total reduction of 3.8%. Thus, the number of

Russia's population below working age decreased

from 28387.0 to 27318.0 thousand people, i.e. by

1069.0 thousand people.

Demographic load analysis

These trends observed in the period 2000-2021 have

led to an increase in the demographic burden on the

able-bodied population.

The results of calculations of the demographic

load coefficient are summarized in Table 2.

During the period under study in Russia, the

burden on the working-age population increases

steadily. Thus, if in 2000 there were on average

0.662 persons of working age for every person of

non-working age, by 2021 this ratio will have

increased to 0.749 persons. On average over the

period, the demographic burden increases by 3.1%,

leading to a total increase of 13.2% by the end of the

period.

The overall demographic situation in Russia

should be recognized as contradictory and

unfavorable. During the period 2000-2021, the

burden on the working population increased, while

the existing volume of human capital decreased.

This should have led to certain economic losses,

which can be calculated using the approach of

estimating the size of the GDP shortfall.

The statistical data required for further

calculations are summarized in Table 3.

Based on the information presented in Table 3,

we will perform calculations according to formula

(2).

 

   

The calculations show that on average for the

period under consideration, 2000-2021, one unit of

human capital in Russia produced 0.087 million

rubles. GDP. Earlier in this article, the total loss of

human capital in Russia was determined, which

amounted to 747.0 thousand people. Therefore,

using formula (3), we can determine the amount of

losses incurred by the Russian socio-economic

system due to the loss of human capital from the

sphere of social production.

     

Based on these calculations, we can assume that

the approximate amount of losses incurred by the

socio-economic system from the reduction of

available volumes of human capital in Russia in

2000-2021 can be estimated at 64.989 billion rubles.

Analysis of population life expectancy

This fact is significant. Consequently, the

preservation of the existing human capital becomes

a priority. The state of the latter process can be

judged by the dynamics of life expectancy at birth

(Table 4).

Table 2. Dynamics of the demographic load coefficient in Russia

Indicator

Indicator value

Growth rate

2000

2010

2019

2020

2021

for the

period

annual

average

Demographic load factor

0,662

0,626

0,775

0,785

0,749

113,2 %

103,1%

Source: Compiled by the authors

Table 3. Statistical data for determining the value of average GDP produced by one unit of human capital

Indicator

Unit

Indicator value

Period

average

2000

2010

2019

2020

2021

GDP

trillion rubles

7,31

46,31

109,61

107,66

135,29

81,24

GDP deflator indices

-

1,00

3,96

7,47

7,54

8,97

5,79

GDP including deflator indices

trillion rubles

7,31

11,69

14,67

14,28

15,08

12,61

Population size

million people

146,3

142,9

146,7

146,2

145,6

145,53

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Table 4. Life expectancy of the Russian population, years

Indicator

Indicator value

Growth rate

2000

2010

2019

2020

2021

for the

period

annual average

The entire population,

including:

65,34

68,94

73,34

71,54

70,06

107,2 %

101,8 %

- men

59,03

63,09

68,24

66,49

65,51

111,0 %

102,6 %

- women

72,26

74,88

78,17

76,43

74,51

103,1 %

100,8 %

Table 5. Dynamics of Divorce Processes as an Indicator of Family Characteristics of Supporting Human

Capital Reproduction in Russia

Indicator

Unit

Indicator value

Growth rate

2000

2010

2019

2020

2021

for the period

annual average

Marriages

Thousand

units

897,3

1215,1

950,2

770,9

923,5

102,9 %

100,7 %

Divorces

Thousand

units

627,7

639,3

620,7

564,7

644,2

102,6 %

100,7 %

Marriages

units per

1000 people

6,2

8,5

6,5

5,3

6,3

101,6 %

100,4 %

Divorces

units per

1000 people

4,3

4,5

4,2

3,9

4,4

102,3 %

100,6 %

Table 4 shows that the situation with the

preservation of human capital in the Russian socio-

economic system is positive. The life expectancy of

the population as a whole has increased by 7.2%. If

in 2000 its value was 65.34 years, by 2021 it will

have increased by 4.72 years. This means that the

average annual increase in the life expectancy of the

Russian population between 2000 and 2021 was

1.8%. At the end of the analysed period its value

increased by 7.2%.

The above-mentioned positive trend was formed

to a greater extent due to the increase in the life

expectancy of men. A distinctive feature of Russia

is that men live much shorter lives than women:

their life expectancy is on average 10 years shorter,

[21]. In 2000, its value averaged 59.03 years, and by

2021 it increased by 6.48 years. The annual increase

in life expectancy of the population increased by

2.6% on average and in general, for the period

2000-2021, the value of the latter indicator for men

increased by 11.0%.

The dynamics of life expectancy in women were

smoother. In general, its value increased by 3.1%

during the study period. In 2000, it was 72.26 years,

and in 2021 - 75.51 years. Thus, in 2000-2021 life

expectancy of women in Russia increased by 2.25

years. This means that its value increased by 0.8%

per year on average over this period.

It is worth noting that the Russian socio-

economic system, at its current stage of

development, still has the potential to increase life

expectancy. This statement is due to the relatively

low value of this indicator for men. If the life

expectancy for women in Russia in 2021 is 74.51

years, it will be only 65.51 years for men, i.e. 9.0

years lower. This leaves a certain reserve for

increasing the total duration of the period of

preservation of human capital as an asset of the

socio-economic system of Russia.

Analyzing the trend of divorces and marriages

At the same time, the processes of human capital

reproduction remain the most important among the

directions of Russia's demographic development.

The study notes that these processes have a negative

tendency to change. However, we can look at this

problem from the other side - from the perspective

of the functioning of the family institution and the

dynamics of the divorce process. Divorce has an

indirect or direct impact on children, families, the

economy, and society as a whole, [22].

It should be noted that the number of marriages

in Russia fluctuates constantly. In general, a positive

dynamic was observed during the period analyzed.

For 2000-2021 the number of marriages increased

on average by 0.7% per year. In 2000, 897.3

thousand units were registered, and in 2021 -

already 923.5 thousand units of marriage. As a

result, during this period the number of marriages

concluded in Russia increased by 2.9% (Table 5).

Negative changes associated with the number of

divorces are compensated by the positive dynamics

of the number of concluded marriages in Russia. In

general, during the period under study, 2000-2021,

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the total number of divorces in Russia increased

from 627.7 to 644.2 thousand units, i.e. by 16.5

thousand units or 2.6%. Annually, the number of

divorces in Russia increases on average by 0.6%.

However, the situation looks relatively

favorable, as still the number of marriages exceeds

the number of divorces. In 2021, there will be 6.3

units of marriage and only 4.4 units of divorce per

1,000 people in Russia. - divorce. Next, let us

calculate the average coefficient of preservation of

family relations (formula 4).

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

  

Then, the mean value of the family preservation

rate for the period 2000-2021 is:





        

 

As a result, the intensity of marriages in Russia

during the period analyzed was 1.5 times higher

than the intensity of divorces. The value of the

coefficient of preservation of family relations

indicates an increase in the probability of both the

reproduction of human capital and ensuring its

development. The family is the key institution of

socialization, revealing and strengthening the human

potential of all the members of a prosperous family.

All this is the main condition for ensuring growth in

the quality of human capital. As a result, economic

growth is ensured along with increasing

competitiveness of the socio-economic system.

In general, the demographic state of the Russian

socioeconomic system should be assessed as

contradictory. A serious problem is the trend of

population decrease. In the period 2000-2021, this

problem affected only rural settlements, so it did not

critically affect the development of the socio-

economic system. If it continues, the severity of the

problem may increase significantly. Population

decline can be influenced by the factors of scientific

and technological progress, which in turn will

increase agricultural productivity.

On the other hand, there is a tendency in Russia

to increase the duration of human capital. At the

same time, the situation with divorce processes is

improving substantially. All this allows us to expect

the development of human capital and an increase of

its qualitative component. The latter should be

accompanied by a more efficient use of it.

Analysis of unemployment and employment

The size of the population and other parameters

previously introduced into the analysis reveal the

relationship between demographic development and

the state of the processes of formation and

maintenance of human capital in the socio-economic

system of Russia. However, what is important for

the latter is not the mere existence of human capital,

but the possibilities of its effective use. The primary

indicator for this is the overall dynamics of the labor

force, which is additionally described by the

parameters of employment and unemployment.

The labor force is a cross-section of

demographic indicators that fully meets the

requirements of the definition of "human capital".

Thus, despite the constant decrease in the

population, the socio-economic system of Russia

does not experience serious limitations in its

development. Due to the fact that the number of the

labor force remains sufficiently stable, the change in

the human capital of the population takes place

gradually. Economic growth reduces poverty in the

long-run, while unemployment inflates poverty in

the long-run, [23].

So for the period 2019-2021, the volume of

labor available in the socio-economic system of

Russia decreased only by 0.1%. In 2019, its level

amounted to 75398.0 thousand people, and in 2021

it decreased by 48.0 thousand people. At the same

time, the assessment of the average annual rates of

change showed no fluctuations. Based on the

dynamics of the labor force indicator, we can

affirmatively state that the socioeconomic system of

Russia has not recently experienced a deficit in

human capital (Table 6).

The above conclusion is supported by statistical

data characterizing the dynamics of the number of

unemployed. Retrospective analysis of the statistical

data for the period 2019-2021 shows that the value

of the number of unemployed has been constantly

increasing by an average of 2.4% per year. As a

result, the total number of unemployed has

increased from 3,465.0 to 3,631.0 thousand people,

which is estimated at 166.0 thousand people. In

relative terms, this means that the total number of

unemployed increased by 4.8% during the period

under review.

It should be noted that this trend has mainly

affected the female part of the Russian population. It

is this category that has found it most difficult to use

its human capital.

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Table 6. Characteristics of Russia's human capital through labor force indicators, ths. people

Indicator

2019

2020

2021

Growth rate

within the

period

annual average

1) Labor force:

75398

74923

75350

99,9 %

100,0 %

- men

38758

38445

38729

99,9 %

100,0 %

- women

36640

36478

36621

99,9 %

100,0 %

incl.:

1.1) employed:

71933

70601

71719

99,7 %

99,9 %

- men

36912

36208

36891

99,9 %

100,0 %

- women

35021

34393

34829

99,5 %

99,7 %

1.2) unemployed:

3465

4321

3631

104,8 %

102,4 %

- men

1846,0

2237

1838

99,6 %

99,8 %

- women

1619,0

2085,0

1792,0

110,7 %

105,2 %

Thus, in 2019-2021, the number of unemployed

women increased from 1619.0 to 1792.0 thousand

people, i.e. by 173.0 thousand people. This means

that, in relative terms, the increase in the number of

unemployed women in Russia in 2019-2021 was

equal to 10.7%. In other words, the scale of

unemployment for this category of the Russian

population will grow by an average of 5.2% per

year.

On the contrary, the scale of unemployment

among the male part of the Russian population has

decreased. If in 2019 the number of unemployed

men amounted to 1,846.0 thousand people, in 2021

there were only 1,838.0 thousand people. On

average for the period, unemployment among men

decreased by 0.2% per year. In general, its value

decreased by 0.4% in 2019-2021.

It was possible to establish some gender

differences in the ability to use human capital. In

Russia in 2019-2021 it was easier for men to apply

their capital to participate in socio-economic

relations. This was the main reason for the overall

decrease in employment.

In general, the number of employed in the

Russian economy decreased by 0.3% during the

period under study in 2019-2021. In 2019, its value

was equal to 71933.0 thousand people, and by 2021

it decreased to 71719.0 thousand people. Thus, the

number of the employed population decreased by

214.0 thousand people, which corresponds to the

average annual rate of reduction of the indicator of

0.1%.

The rate of youth unemployment is influenced

by the rate and structure of employment, the level of

economic development of the region and the

demographic structure of the region, [24].

Analysis of potential labor force as reserves for

increasing the volume of human capital

It is already clear that the trend in the overall decline

in the number of employed people in Russia has

mainly concerned the decline in the employment

rate of women. For this indicator, a decrease of

0.5% was observed for 2019-2021. In 2019, the

number of employment of the female population

was 35021.0, and in 2021 - 34829.0 thousand

people. There was a decrease in the value of the

indicator by 192.0 thousand people, and this

corresponded to an annual decrease in employment

by an average of 0.3% for the period.

It is worth noting that in the analysed period

there was also a decrease in the number of people

who are not part of the labor force. So in 2019, they

numbered 45665.0 thousand people, and in 2021 -

45462.0 people, therefore the number of the last

category of the population of Russia for the

analyzed period decreased by 203.0 thousand

people. This makes 0.4% and means an average

annual decrease of 0.2% per year.

For the category of female population, a more

intensive reduction in the number of persons who

are not part of the labor force was traced. Overall,

there is a decrease of 0.4% for 2019-2021. In 2019 it

amounted to 29548.0 and in 2021 29383.0 thousand

people. During the analyzed period, the number of

women not in the labor force decreased by 165.0

thousand people.

For their part, the number of males who are not

part of the Russian labor force will also decrease.

The total value of decrease for 2019-2021 was

0.2%. In 2019 its value was 16117.0 and in 2021 -

16079.0 thousand people, i.e. the numerical value

was determined at the level of 38.0 thousand people

(Table 7).

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Table 7. Potential labor force as reserves for increasing the volume of human capital in Russia's socio-

economic system

Indicator

2019

2020

2021

Growth rate

within the

period

annual

average

1) Persons not in the labor force:

45665

45916

45462

99,6 %

99,8 %

- men

16117

16337

16079

99,8 %

99,9 %

- women

29548

29578

29383

99,4 %

99,7 %

1.2) potential labor force:

1573

1659

1234

78,4 %

88,6 %

- men

756

811

567

75,0 %

86,6 %

- women

816

848

667

81,7 %

90,4 %

2) Number of unemployed people

registered with employment agencies:

691

2773

777

112,4 %

106,0 %

- men

317

1185

339

106,9 %

103,4 %

- women

375

1588

438

116,8 %

108,1 %

It should be noted, however, that the number of

females not in the labor force is almost a multiple of

that of males. On average for 2019-2021, this ratio

is as follows:

    

      

Thus, the number of women not in the labor

force is 1.8 times higher than the same indicator for

men. However, when analyzing the indicator

"potential labor force" this disproportion is

smoothed out. Table 7 shows the following:

    

      

From this, we can conclude that the significant

excess of the number of women not in the labor

force over the number of men is mainly due to the

higher life expectancy of the former. And to a lesser

extent characterizes gender differences in the

structure of the human capital reserve.

The latter is almost evenly divided between

male and female parts of the Russian population.

However, in the first category, its volume is

decreasing more rapidly. In 2019, the size of the

potential male labor force was estimated at 756.0

thousand people, and in 2021 it was already 567.0

thousand people. Thus, there was a decrease in its

value by 189.0 thousand people, which is 25.0%. In

turn, the number of potential female labor force for

the same period decreased by 149.0 thousand people

or 18.3%: from 816.0 thousand people in 2019 to

667.0 thousand people in 2021.

In general, the reserve of human capital

available to the socio-economic system of Russia

for the analyzed period decreased by 81.5% or by

339.0 thousand people. If in 2019 its value

amounted to 1,573.0 thousand people, in 2021 it

already numbered 1,234.0 thousand people. The

average annual rate of decrease in the value of this

indicator for 2019-2021 is estimated at 11.4%.

Analysis of Human capital by occupation group

According to the results of the period under study,

the volume of potential labor force equal to 1234.0

thousand people remained in the reserve of the

socio-economic system of Russia. Knowing it, we

can calculate the value of possible GDP growth by

formula (3).

      

The inclusion of reserve human capital in socio-

economic relations is capable of providing an

additional volume of GDP in an amount exceeding

one hundred billion rubles. Here it is important that

these are highly productive jobs that provide the

market with products with high added value.

In this regard, the nature of the dynamics of

human capital utilization by occupational groups is

of certain interest. Information on this is presented

in Table 8.

The data in Table 8 show that the number of

managerial jobs in Russia's socio-economic system

decreased by 3.8%: from 4.1 to 3.9 million people.

To a greater extent, this trend affected men, among

whom the number of managers decreased by 4.5%.

In contrast, the number of managerial jobs held by

women decreased by 2.8%. This indicates that a

certain gender equality has been achieved and

characterizes Russia's socio-economic system as a

modern and equal one.

Another positive development is the overall

increase in the number of highly qualified

specialists in 2020-2021. While in 2020 there were

only 18.6 million such jobs in the Russian economy,

in 2021 there will be 18.8 million such jobs.

Consequently, there was an increase of 1.0%.

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Table 8. Characteristics of Russia's human capital utilization by occupation groups, mln. People

Indicator

2020

2021

Growth rate

Total

Men

Women

Total

Men

Women

Total, %

Men, %

Women, %

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Managers

4,1

2,2

1,9

3,9

2,1

1,8

96,2

95,5

97,2

Specialists at the highest level

of qualification

18,6

6,9

11,7

18,8

7,1

11,7

101,0

102,9

99,8

Specialists of intermediate level

qualification

9,7

4,0

5,7

9,9

4,1

5,8

102,0

102,8

101,4

Specialists engaged in the

preparation and execution of

documents, accounting, and

maintenance

1,9

0,3

1,6

1,9

0,3

1,6

100,0

Service and commercial

employees, protection of

citizens and property

10,7

3,3

7,5

11,2

3,3

7,8

104,0

102,3

104,7

Skilled workers in agriculture,

forestry, fish farming and

fisheries

1,8

0,9

0,8

1,7

0,9

0,8

97,3

100,0

Skilled workers in industry,

construction, transportation, and

related occupations

9,2

7,6

1,6

9,5

7,8

1,7

103,4

103,2

104,7

Production plants and machines

operators, assemblers and

drivers

9,2

8,1

1,1

9,2

8,2

1,1

100,0

Unskilled workers

5,3

2,8

2,5

5,6

3,0

2,5

104,1

106,0

101,9

At the same time, the number of women

occupying these jobs significantly exceeds the

number of men. In 2020, the following ratio of 11.7

to 6.9 million jobs is highlighted, and in 2021, 11.7

to 7.1 million jobs.

It also shows that during this period, the number

of jobs occupied by men increased by 2.9%, while

for the female part of the population, this value

remained almost stable (at the scaling level in

millions).

During 2020-2021, the number of jobs occupied

by middle-skilled specialists increased. In 2020,

there were about 9.7 million jobs in Russia's

socioeconomic system in total, and by 2021 that

number was 9.9 million jobs. There was an increase,

which can be estimated at 2.0%. It affected both

women and men. In the former case, the increase

was 1.4% and in the latter one, it was 2.8%.

In addition, there was an increase in the number

of unskilled jobs. And this increase was more

intensive. In the Russian economy as a whole in

2020 there were 5.3 million such jobs, and in 2021

there were already 5.6 million jobs. There was an

increase, which amounted to 4.1%. It should also be

noted that low-skilled jobs are more or less equally

distributed between women and men. However, for

the latter, the growth in the number of jobs is

outpacing: the increase amounted to 6.0% in 2020-

2021. For women, this value is 1.9%.

It should be noted that during the analyzed

period there was a stable value of the number of

jobs occupied by employees, i.e. specialists engaged

in the preparation and execution of documentation,

accounting, and maintenance of economic

processes. Thus, in 2020-2021, the total number of

such jobs in the socio-economic system of Russia

amounted to 1.9 million. At the same time, only 0.3

million jobs were occupied by men and 1.6 million

jobs were occupied by women.

In the sectoral breakdown, there was an increase

in the number of jobs in industry, construction,

transportation, trade, and service. The number of

workers in service and trade, protection of citizens

and property increased by 4.0% over 2020-2021. In

2020, there will be 10.7 million such jobs in

Russia's socio-economic system, and in 2021 - 11.2

million jobs. At the same time, women are

employed here to a greater extent. In 2020 they

occupied 7.5 and in 2021 - 7.8 million such jobs.

The opposite gender structure is inherent in

skilled jobs in industry, construction, and

transportation. Here, among the 9.2 million jobs that

existed in 2020, 7.6 million jobs were occupied by

men, while in 2021 this ratio did not change

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significantly and amounted to 9.5 and 7.8 million

jobs. Over 2020-2021, there was an increase in the

number of jobs of this type in the Russian economy

as a whole by 3.4%.

The number of jobs of operators of production

plants and machines remained at a stable level.

During 2020-2021, about 9.2 million such jobs were

allocated in the socio-economic system of Russia.

This circumstance can speak about a certain type of

stagnation of industrial development when the

actual number of standard sizes of equipment and

technological lines remains at the same level - there

is no expanded reproduction.

At the same time, agriculture was the only

economic activity that experienced a decline in the

number of jobs. Over the 2020-2021 period, the

number of skilled workers in agriculture, forestry,

and fish farming fell from 1.8 million to 1.7 million

jobs. Overall, the total decline over the analyzed

period was 2.7%. This is quite consistent with the

previously identified trend of reduction of human

capital in rural areas. Consequently, this fact is

caused not only by the nationwide trends of

population reduction but also by economic reasons.

5 Discussion of Results

The conducted research has shown that during

2000-2021 Russia experienced a decline in

population. On average for the period it amounted to

0.1% per year. It is worth noting that the urban

population grew by an average of 0.4% annually,

while the rural population decreased by 1.7%.

Population reduction created prerequisites for the

loss of human capital mainly within the boundaries

of rural settlements. This is a certain peculiarity of

Russia's demographic development that exists

within the framework of the human capital theory.

At the same time, during 2000-2021, the

number of Russia's population aged “above working

age” increased. This occurred against the

background of a decline in the number of two other

age categories of the population: “below working

age” and “at working age”. As a result, the

dynamics of these processes caused a deterioration

in the quality of the demographic load. From 2000-

2021, the value of the demographic load coefficient

for the population of working age increased

annually by an average of 3.1%.

In general, population decline and increasing

demographic burden are evidence of the

deterioration of human capital. This situation results

in economic losses. In this paper, we have made

calculations that show that the approximate amount

of losses from the current state of human capital can

be estimated at 64.989 billion rubles. This is

significant. Consequently, the tasks of preserving

human capital are of priority importance.

The tasks of preserving human capital have

been successfully accomplished. They have served

as a basis for increasing the life expectancy of the

Russian population. However, an increase in the life

expectancy of the population may lead to a

reduction in market volumes, lowering the birth

rate.

Divorce processes are involved in the process of

human capital accumulation. In the modern social

system, the institution of family is a key institution

in terms of the formation and development of

individual human capital. In this regard, during the

period under study, the same growth rates of

marriages and divorces were observed. On average

for 2000-2021 they were estimated at 0.7% per year.

It should be noted that the intensity of divorce

increases per thousand people outpaced the intensity

of marriage. The divorce rate increased on average

by 0.6% per year, and the rate of marriage increased

by 0.4%. This indicates an emerging problem that

can lead to both qualitative and quantitative losses

of human capital. Therefore, this problem should be

considered serious, which increases the relevance of

the measures needed to resolve it.

The study of the efficiency of the demographic

resource utilization by the socio-economic system of

Russia showed that during 2019-2021 there was

stagnation in the indicator of the labor force.

Consequently, the human capital actually remained

at a constant level.

At the same time, there was an increase in the

unemployment rate. This fact indicates a decrease in

the efficiency of human capital utilization in the

socio-economic system of Russia. On average for

2019-2021, the unemployment rate increased by

2.4%. At the same time, this negative trend affected

exclusively the female part of the Russian

population. Among men, the unemployment rate

decreased on average by 0.2% per year. The general

increase in the unemployment rate was accompanied

by a decrease in the volume of potential labor force.

On the whole, in 2019-2021, its volume decreased

by 11.4% on average. This trend indicates an actual

reduction in the human capital reserves of the socio-

economic system of Russia.

The reserves of the socio-economic system are

more intensively depleted among the male part of

the population. The average annual rate of decrease

in the labor force for 2019-2021 was 13.4%. Among

the female part of the population, the reserves

decreased by 9.6% on average. There was a

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decrease in the number of persons not in the labor

force.

6 Conclusion

The study of Russia's demographic development

through the prism of human capital theory has

allowed us to identify a number of problems. This

empirical evidence is the main result of this paper. It

can be used in the practice of managerial decision-

making by the government at various levels of

formal power. This is the essence of the possibility

for practical application of the results of this work,

reflecting the fact of the analytical study.

The research has shown that there has been an

annual increase in the urban population and a

decrease in the rural population. At the same time,

there has been a steady decline in the number of

people of working age and a decrease in the number

of economically inactive young people. The amount

of losses incurred by the Russian socio-economic

system due to the loss of human capital from the

sphere of social production has been determined.

The life expectancy of the country's population as a

whole has increased. At the same time, the number

of marriages exceeds the number of divorces, which

indicates positive dynamics.

The study notes the problem of an increasing

number of the unemployed. It should be noted that

this trend has affected the predominantly female

part of the Russian population. It is this category

that has found it most difficult to use its human

capital. Stabilization of the demographic situation

can be achieved at the expense of reserve human

capital. The inclusion of reserve human capital in

socio-economic relations can provide an additional

volume of GDP. The number of managerial jobs in

the socio-economic system of Russia has decreased.

The nature of the dynamics of human capital

utilization by groups of occupations is considered.

There is a general increase in the number of

specialists of the highest and middle level of

qualification. In the sectoral context, there was an

increase in the number of jobs in industry,

construction, transportation, trade, and service. A

decrease in the number of jobs was observed in

agriculture.

The conducted research enabled us to identify a

certain dependency between demographic

development and the state of human capital. This

dependence is significant.

This study is based on traditional analytical

procedures of mathematical analysis. The main

advantages of this method are the attempt to apply a

systematic approach to the collection of factual data

and the simplicity of the applied tools. The paper

analyzes the demographic development of Russia in

the context of eight blocks of information

descriptions in a consistent and interrelated manner.

At the same time, an attempt was made to reflect the

twenty-year retrospective of the socio-economic

system of Russia, but it was not achieved

everywhere. All this allowed us to draw fairly

objective conclusions, which are based mainly on

the statistical description of the dynamics of

demographic development and are devoid of the

subjectivity of assessments to a certain extent.

The material and content of this paper describe

the current demographic situation in Russia

endogenously, without taking into account the

complex exogenous factors that have become

acutely apparent in recent years. Therefore, the

results of the study, which established a number of

key problems of demographic development through

the prism of human capital theory, are a sufficiently

accurate basis for understanding the directions of

elaboration of initiatives and recommendations for

the correction of demographic policy.

The completed work has allowed us to identify

common key problems of demographic

development in Russia and also helps to identify

promising areas for further research. It is important

to take into account the regional peculiarities of the

socio-economic system of Russia. Addressing

demographic challenges will be facilitated by work

aimed at examining the impact of key aspects of

demographic development on indicators that reflect

the state of human capital. Further work will make it

possible to build a number of models that will

describe the impact of demographic development on

certain parameters that reflect the efficiency of

human capital application in the socio-economic

system of Russia.

The most significant limitations of the study

should also be noted. First, it was based on an

insufficiently complete database. Its incompleteness

is expressed by the set of selected indicators by the

method of their systematization. Supplementing this

database with data, probably, allowed us to identify