Recovery of the Economy of Ukraine on the Basis of Digital

Entrepreneurship: Forecast Expectations, Models and Scenarios of

Post-War Development

KATERYNA KRAUS1, NATALIIA KRAUS1, GALYNA POCHENCHUK2,

OLEKSANDR MANZHURA3, VITALY KYRPUSHKO2

1Bohdan Khmelnytskyi National University of Cherkasy

Cherkasy, 81 Shevchenko Blvd.

UKRAINE

2Department of Economic Theory, Management and Administration,

Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University,

Chernivtsi, 2 Kocyubynskogo St.,

UKRAINE

3Poltava University of Economics and Trade,

Poltava, 3 Koval St.,

UKRAINE

Abstract: - The purpose of scientific research is to present tools and measures for the recovery of the economy

of Ukraine and to find reserves for accelerating the digitalization of business and entrepreneurship, which will

play one of the main ‘violins’ of the innovative and digital development of Ukraine with a bright financial and

economic future in the scenario of post-war development. The object of scientific research is the sphere of

telecommunications, computer and information services from 2000 to 2023, and the analysis of indicators of

the export of services in this sphere, the expansion of digital opportunities of entrepreneurship due to the

introduction of products and services of the information and communication sphere as one of the key reserves

of innovative and digital development during post-war reconstruction. Types of offset obligations for the

purchase of imported products are presented, including: transfer of technologies, opening of joint production in

the territory of the importer; direct investments, development of digital infrastructure, and investments in R&D.

Measures to promote the digitization of traditional entrepreneurship are named, in particular: the creation of the

Digital Bank of Innovative Development of Ukraine and the introduction of preferential taxation of incomes of

newly created digital enterprises in the field of digital and innovation. It was determined that the creation of

favorable conditions for innovation, investment, and commercial activities of digital enterprises, within the

national digital ecosystem in technology parks, will speed up the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine’s

economy. The practical significance of the research results is that the content of practical advice, the use of

which will make it possible to preserve the positive dynamics of the export of services in terms of

telecommunications, computer, and information services, regardless of the state of war in Ukraine, is disclosed.

The value of the presented research is that having conducted a thorough analysis of statistical data on the

dynamics of the export of business services and the dynamics of the export of services in the field of

telecommunications, computer, and information services from 2000 to 2023, the authors managed to determine

the relative error of approximation – a criterion for assessing the reliability of the forecast, which was 1.74%

and to consider the approximation quality, and the forecast for 2026 is reliable. We consider this to be one of

the opportunities for the country to make money by selling a quality product in foreign markets and as a result

increasing the GDP. It is proposed to develop a program to support digital entrepreneurship in the field of

information and communication technologies and to open regional technocenters for joint work with local

entrepreneurs.

Key-Words: - digital entrepreneurship, export of telecommunication services, forecasting, development models

of the national economy, foreign direct investment, information and computer services, economic

recovery tools, offset obligations, technology transfer.

Received: October 11, 2023. Revised: May 5, 2024. Accepted: June 5, 2024. Published: July 5, 2024.

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Galyna Pochenchuk, Oleksandr Manzhura,

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1 Introduction

In the conditions of global challenges, economic

turbulence, relocation of businesses, and migration

of Ukrainians abroad, the task of developing tools

and ways out of the extremely complex socio-

economic crisis in which the economy and

Ukrainian society are currently located becomes

urgent. The restoration of Ukraine’s economy to the

pre-war level and its exits in the post-war period on

the path of innovative development lie in the plane

of digital transformation at the national, regional,

and branch levels and the creation of the necessary

effective mechanisms and measures for

digitalization of the economy.

For these reasons, the opinion of scientists, [1], is

interesting in their study focus on strategic

orientations for businesses and issues of

commercialization of new products. The authors of

the article concluded that strategic orientation at the

micro level contributes to the coordination between

the company’s strategy and resource availability, on

the one hand, and adaptation to market conditions,

on the other. We share the views of [1], that the

successful commercialization of new products by an

enterprise depends on the development of critically

important, but complementary sets of strategic

orientations in a dynamic business environment, and

contributes to the economic growth of the country.

In addition, the importance of the question raised

by us in this article is confirmed by the publications

of researchers, in particular, [2], who claim that

manufacturing firms that provide services benefit

from strategic partnerships with knowledge-

intensive business services firms. Their research

presented data from 370 CEOs of large

manufacturers worldwide and found that

manufacturers in R&D-intensive industries are more

likely to benefit from service delivery adoption than

firms in other sectors due to industry dynamics and

lower customer uncertainty, [2].

Currently, there is an urgent need to develop

Ukrainian industries that are priority, promising, and

whose products and services are competitive on

world markets. The government of Ukraine is

expected to develop new quality institutes and

institutions of innovative and digital development.

We are talking about high quality, honesty and

fairness, from the point of view of entrepreneurship,

official conditions and rules for a business that

digitizes its work; on the development of a new

technology transfer format for startups, investors,

and international partners. The government faced a

challenge: How to return talented Ukrainian youth

to Ukraine? How can we encourage her to want to

realize her talents in Ukraine and for the good of

Ukraine? How to stimulate researchers and young

Ukrainian scientists in the information and

communication sphere? After all, it is the products

and services of the IT sphere that determine the

probability and speed of digitization of

entrepreneurship. Currently, the question remains

unanswered: How to strengthen the existing

ecosystem of innovations and form a digital

ecosystem that would work harmoniously and

productively within the framework of a chain of the

type ‘government – university – research institution

– startup schools – large and small businesses’ in

the conditions of martial law. This can be achieved

by improving the institutional environment of the

Ukrainian economy, which will become an

attractive mecca for foreign investments in the

development of high technologies and in

progressive sectors of the national economy.

2 Problem Formulation

2.1 Literature Review

Foreign scientists do not remain aloof from the

urgent problems of rebuilding Ukraine’s economy,

because Ukraine is located in the eastern part of

Europe and has borders with five European

countries. Therefore, based on the principles of

good neighborliness, it becomes obvious that the EU

needs a strong national economy of Ukraine.

Researchers, [3], examine the relationship between

ownership structures in large European companies

and their innovative activity in terms of R&D

spending. The team of authors managed to present

in their publication tests the impact of ‘impatient’

institutional investors and provides evidence of their

negative influence on R&D spending, [3]. A group

of scientists, among whom it is worth noting, [4],

[5], carried out a model analysis of environmental

innovations for the national transition to

decarbonization in the integrated European energy

system, which allowed the researchers to present the

author’s work in terms of improving the quality of

management of the renewal of the national economy

in the conditions of ensuring energy

decentralization.

A team of scientists, namely, [6], devoted their

research to exploring the dynamics of openness and

formal appropriability and its impact on innovation

performance in start-ups. In their publication, they

presented their own vision of the evolution of

openness-appropriability strategies full sample,

balanced subsample, and unbalanced subsample.

Scientists, [6], found that start-ups change their

openness and formal appropriability strategies over

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their development and that a combination of

openness and formal appropriability enhances start-

ups’ innovation performance.

Such well-known scientists as, [7], dealt with the

conceptual principles of assessment and forecasting

of the innovative development of regions.

Researchers, [8], analyzed the flow of information

through the different phases of a systematic review

and developed an explanatory document to increase

the usefulness of PRISMA. A cohort of researchers,

[9], [10], worked on increasing the sustainability

and monitoring the quality of management of

innovative systems.

Scientists, [11], examined 14 firm-level

practices, later reduced to four factors, that

influence the ability to minimize new product

development and introduction times overall relative

to competitors. The factors are human resource

management, synergistic integration, supplier

closeness, and the design-manufacturing interface.

Building on the dynamic capabilities view

(DCV), [12], empirically examine the relationships

among international entrepreneurship culture (IEC),

ambidextrous innovation, dynamic marketing

capabilities, and INV (International new ventures)

performance under varying levels of environmental

dynamism. Scientists managed to come to the

conclusion that IEC influences both ambidextrous

innovation and dynamic marketing capabilities; and,

together, these link to INV performance gains.

Scientific developments in the field of

digitization of entrepreneurship and traditional

businesses are presented in the scientific work of

professors, [13], [14], [15], [16]. These works offer

successful examples of the formation and

development of digital ecosystems, and ways of

implementing startup projects in various EU

countries, and indicate tools and mechanisms for

rapid digitalization of the economy based on digital

entrepreneurship.

Researchers, [17], in their scientific study

explained how making a firm structurally faster

leads a company to face a ‘conversion dilemma’,

i.e., to choose the proper strategic orientation that

can be definitely regarded as affecting its external

configuration, visible to the market, or only the

internal one, transforming the time advantage into a

cost one.

The issue of the fastest possible recovery of the

post-war economy of Ukraine and digitalization of

the economy of Ukraine on the basis of innovation

was reflected in the research of scientists such as,

[18], [19], and others. Scientists claim that after the

war, Ukraine will face the need to change its

strategic plans, including regional development,

given the significant changes in internal and

external factors.

Among the Ukrainian researchers who are

engaged in revealing the peculiarities of the

formation of digital entrepreneurship and the issue

of finding investments for the development of

breakthrough innovations in the conditions of

martial law, and industrialization in times of

digitalization of the economy, we can name, [20],

[21]. The analysis of the noted recent studies proved

that the concept of digital transformation of the

economy has advantages: increasing the efficiency

of the existing infrastructure due to the synergistic

effects of creating digital enterprises; emergence of

qualitatively new digital business models;

increasing revenue or reducing costs in existing

business models.

2.2 Tasks of the Article

The purpose of the publication is to work out ways

to restore the economy of Ukraine to present a

number of tools and recommendations that would

accelerate the formation of digital entrepreneurship

renew the innovative and digital development of the

national economy and present the forecast volume

of exports of services in the field of

telecommunications, computer and information

services of Ukraine for 2026, having carried out an

analytical alignment of the dynamic series based on

the analysis of foreign direct investment data, the

dynamics of exports of research and development

services, professional and consulting services and

scientific and technical services from 2000 to 2023

and the volume of exports of services in the field of

telecommunications, computer and information

services of Ukraine in 2016–2021, in order to

understand on the basis of this knowledge whether

Ukraine has the economic potential to rebuild the

national economy.

Among the tasks set in the article are: to reveal

the content of the forecasting of the volume of

exports of services in the field of

telecommunications, computer and information

services of Ukraine for 2026 in a reasoned manner,

having carried out an analytical alignment of the

dynamic series and presenting the results of

forecasting according to the Holt-Winters model;

determine and disclose all possible options for offset

obligations when purchasing imported products; to

present ways and measures to activate small,

medium and large digital entrepreneurship in the

field of telecommunications, computer and

information services in Ukraine; indicate the general

trends traced from 2000 to 2023 in the dynamics of

exports of other business services; to reveal the

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content of practical advice for maintaining the

positive dynamics of the export of services in terms

of telecommunications, computer and information

services in the conditions of martial law; to present

tools that would contribute to the digitalization of

traditional entrepreneurship in Ukraine.

2.3 Methodology

On the basis of dialectical, systematic,

mathematical, and statistical methods, the export of

telecommunications, computer, and information

services from 2000 to 2023 and the export of other

business services from 2010 to 2023 were studied,

which determined the prospective available reserve

of economic recovery with positive dynamics and

indicated the need for a strategic format of digital

business work based on innovation. The heat map

method was used to analyze foreign direct

investments; forecasting was carried out according

to the Holt-Winters model and the forecast volume

of exports by means of analytical alignment of the

dynamic series.

Scientists emphasize that the development of

new methodical approaches to scientifically based

strategizing of spatial associations is gaining great

relevance, especially in the post-war period, [19].

So, [19], concluded that the problem of strategic

planning of regional development is timely for both

EU countries and Ukraine. The Ukrainian scientist

managed to develop strategic scenarios of post-war

recovery and adaptation of the development of

spatial associations-regions (in the example of the

Kharkiv region of Ukraine) to the influence of

external and internal threats in order to preserve the

trajectory of sustainable development in the medium

term and to present an inertial, realistic and

optimistic recovery scenario until 2027.

Scientists, [22], [23], devoted their research to

studying the features of the application of

intellectual capital and the product created on its

basis. The researchers studied the characteristic

features of the application of management

innovations and their application in high-tech and

low-tech companies. In their publications, they

concluded that ‘The organizational intellectual

capital is a conceptual system reflecting the fields of

knowledge, emotions and values developed within a

generic organization… the potential intellectual

capital is transformed into operational intellectual

capital due to the work of organizational integrators,

especially of those that are nonlinear: leadership,

management, and organizational culture’, [22].

In scientific work [24], outline and discuss five

dimensions of corporate entrepreneurship including

autonomy, innovativness, proactiveness,

competitive aggressiveness and risk-taking.

A team of scientists [25], in their publication,

analyze technical innovations in small and medium-

sized enterprises, point out the importance of

entrepreneurial orientation and effective use of

intellectual capital. They presented exploratory

factor analysis for the intellectual capital construct,

exploratory factor analysis for the technical

innovation construct, mediating effects of

entrepreneurial orientation on the effect of

intellectual capital dimensions on technical

innovation.

Scientists, [18], are actively engaged in the study

of world experience in terms of post-war economic

recovery and attempt to adapt it to the national

economy of Ukraine. They put forward and

successfully argued in their scientific publication the

hypothesis that the use of the experience of the EU

countries, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Hong

Kong, given the coincidence or identity of the

conditions of the sectoral experience with modern

Ukraine, will allow adapting foreign models to

create a unique model of the post-war development

and strategizing of the national economy. The

researchers emphasized the need for the Ukrainian

economy to have systematic reforms, stable sources

of financing, and strong institutions for economic

recovery. The strengths and weaknesses of the

Marshall Plan (European countries, 1948–1951) and

the Rain Plan (Japan, 1949–1965) were revealed,

analyzed the regulatory regimes of tax incentives in

particular the ‘Celtic Tiger’ model of Ireland,

presented the principles of implementing

international aid programs that could be effective

for the post-war economy of Ukraine, [18].

3 Problem Solution

3.1 A New Socio-Technological Method of

Production

The post-war recovery of Ukraine’s economy and

the formation of digitized economic business

relations will continue to be influenced by global

challenges and institutional-structural changes in the

world order. The formation of digital

entrepreneurship already in today’s economic

conditions is characterized by a new institutional

and organizational format. This format is designed

to strengthen innovative digital development and

create a digital macrospace as a result of the digital

transformation of the national economy.

In modern business conditions, a successful

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combination of industrial and post-industrial

production methods already determines the

emergence of a new socio-technological production

method based on a digitized information technology

system. It’s clear that the institutional, technological

dynamism and the post-war reconstruction of the

national economy formed the need for the birth of a

generation of digital entrepreneurs, significantly

intensified the problem of the continuity of

digitalization of entrepreneurial activity,

determining the need for an innovative and digital

development vector of Ukraine.

The post-war recovery of Ukraine’s economy, in

our opinion, is closely related and depends on the

fact that the country’s production and industry

operate in a technological framework. The post-war

reconstruction of the national economy requires the

6th technical and technological order, which is

formed by information and telecommunication

technologies and their key factors: microelectronics,

computer equipment, and software, which are

inherent in the technological order. We are

convinced that it is necessary to immediately take a

course for a wider application of the principle of co-

financing of research by both state and private

structures, as well as developers and manufacturers,

improvement of the organizational structure of

social research, improvement of training of

specialists, intensive joining of Ukraine to

international cooperation in the field of R&D of TCI

services. This is caused by the positive dynamics of

the export of services in the field of

telecommunications, computer, and information

services from 2000 to 2023 (Figure 1 and Figure 2).

For Ukraine, this is a good application on the world

market of telecommunications, computer, and

information services and an increase in the

country’s GDP on this basis.

Thus, in 2022, the total export of

telecommunications, computer, and information

services reached $7,521 million, which was, of

course, a record for the past 13 years. But it is worth

noting that for objective reasons, among which, first

of all, the war on the territory of Ukraine, in 2023

this figure slightly worsened and amounted to

$6,885 million, which is $636 million less. From the

analysis of the data in Figure 2, it becomes obvious

that this deterioration of the indicator in 2023

occurred due to a decrease in the export volumes of

computer and telecommunication services by $622

million and $25 million, respectively. As for

information services, a positive trend has developed

here, and already in 2023, this indicator has

increased by $11 million. The general trend line for

the export of computer services in Figure 2

demonstrates the fact that from 2005 to 2022,

systematic growth is observed indicator.

3.2 Practical Advice on Increasing the

Export of Services in Terms of

Telecommunications, Computer and

Information Services

In order for the dynamics of the export of services in

terms of telecommunications, computer, and

information services to remain positive in the future

despite the war in Ukraine, we consider it necessary

to provide several practical tips, including:

- Reducing the gap in the technical and

technological level of national production and

entrepreneurship in comparison with world leaders,

by transitioning to new organizational and legal

forms of commercialization of R&D;

- Development of new quality standards for

national digital enterprises, which would allow for

rapid integration into the European market of digital

services in the information and communication

sphere;

- Provision of grant support during the

implementation of high-tech projects in the early

stages by national digital enterprises, the

specialization of which is in the field of medicine,

the military-industrial complex, the processing

industry, and the agricultural sector;

- Stimulating the demand for Ukrainian scientific

developments, equipment, and technologies from

small, medium, and large enterprises of various

branches of the national economy by reimbursing

(returning) part of the funds to those enterprises that

purchase and implement various inventions and

achievements in their production (such as products,

services, and processes) of national science and

education.

Pursuing the goal of a thorough analysis of

Ukraine’s exports, it is worth paying attention to the

overall positive dynamics of the export of business

services from 2000 to 2023. Thus, in Figure 3, you

can see that in 2023, compared to 2022, the export

of other business services increased by $431

million. If we compare 2023 with 2021 and 2020,

the growth was almost $1,468 million and $1,715

million, respectively. These data testify to the

gradual moderate growth of exports of other

business services over the past 4 years.

This happened due to an increase in export

volumes in 2023 compared to 2022 in research and

development services and technical services, trade

services, and other business services by $62 million

and $374 million, respectively.

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Fig. 1: The general dynamics of the export of services in the field of telecommunications, computer, and

information services from 2000 to 2023, thousands of dollars

Source: Compiled based on data from sources, [26]

Fig. 2: Dynamics of export of services in terms of telecommunications, computer, and information services

from 2000 to 2023

Source: Compiled based on data from sources, [26], [27]

89893,2

228304,4

677373,5

1585572,6

2114956,9

2575947,8

3051447,5

4031998

7521000

6885000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

83959,3

193774

319280,9

352553

157745,5

111198,5

93511,4

102078,3

132000

107000

3792,9

33280,6

259580,6

997296,6

1633152,9

2044607

2345012,9

3161685,6

7349000

6727000

2141,1

1249,8

98512,1

235723

324058,6

420142,4

612923,2

768234,1

40000

51000

0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 8000000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Thousands of dollars

Years

information

services

computer services

telecommunication

services

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Fig. 3: Dynamics of exports of other business services from 2000 to 2023, thousands of dollars

Source: Compiled based on data from sources, [26], [27]

Fig. 4: Dynamics of exports of research and development services, professional and consulting services and

scientific and technical services from 2000 to 2023

Source: Compiled based on data from sources, [26], [27]

140937,9

412864

1149706,7

816706,9

1060698,7 1278174,7

1256661,7

1504164,5

2541000

2972000

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS

YEARS

Business services

Γραμμική (Business services)

47429,6

98302

209444,8

143235,8

115141,8

135190,9

125431,3

154477,3

223000

285000

21734,4

95378,9

373795,5

341505,4

490017,9

591368

615074,6

766008

892000

887000

35853

142651,4

336757,9

189016,3

291205,8

269011,1

330006,6

1426000

1800000

-500000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS

YEARS

scientific and technical services professional and consulting services

research and development services Γραμμική (scientific and technical services)

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However, it is worth noting that in the structure

of the ‘Other business services’ indicator, the

professional services and management consulting

services component in 2023 shows a decrease in the

volume of exports by $5 million (Figure 4).

The general trend line for scientific and technical

services in recent years is positive (Figure 4), which

embodies the hope for a further systematic increase

in the export of domestic products according to the

‘Other business services’ indicator. The data in

Figure 4 shows that from 2015 to 2022, the

dynamics of the export of professional and

consulting services was positive and in general

increased by approximately $550 million in 7 years.

The dynamics of the export of scientific and

technical services was positive from 2020 to 2023.

The growth over these 4 years was $1,531 million.

Analyzing the dynamics of the export of research

and development services, it is worth noting that it

was positive only from 2000 to 2010 and from 2020

to 2023. It was during these years that the policy of

supporting researchers and innovators in various

sectors of the economy, both on the part of

government and private institutions, was followed.

We are talking about institutional incentives and, the

financial and economic interests of government and

business in research and development.

Data for January 2024 allow us to expect high

export figures in the 2024 calendar year as well.

Thus, in January 2024, Ukraine exported $521

million worth of telecommunication, computer, and

information services, in particular $8 million worth

of telecommunication services, $508 million worth

of computer services, $5 million worth of

information services, which is an increase of $2

million more compared to January 2023. Other

scientific services were exported in the amount of

$273 million in January 2024, which is $76 million

more than in January 2023. In particular, in January

2024, Ukraine exported research and development

services worth $21 million; professional services

and provided management consulting services for

$87 million (+ $28 million more than in January

2023); technical services, trade services, and other

business services in the amount of $165 million (+

$51 million more than in January 2023), [26].

These indicators are evidence that Ukraine

provides high-quality services for the above services

because its services and products will continue to be

in demand on world markets. The analysis of

quantitative indicators in the field of

telecommunications, computer, and information

services attests to the power of the Ukrainian

information and communication technology sector,

whose products are the foundation that determines

the speed, quality, and inclusiveness of the

country’s digital development and the formation of

digital entrepreneurship in Ukraine.

3.3 Measures and Tools to Promote

Digitalization of Traditional

Entrepreneurship

The following measures and tools could contribute

to the digitization of traditional entrepreneurship in

Ukraine:

- Creation of the Digital Bank of Innovative

Development of Ukraine. The main functions of this

bank should include financing on an irrevocable

basis and concessional lending for the entire cycle

of creation and replication of scientific and technical

products, promoting the selection of the most

effective developments, and mass distribution of

innovative goods and digital services of domestic

production;

- Introduction of preferential taxation of incomes

of newly created digital enterprises in the field of

numbers and innovations provided that digital

enterprises sell high-tech products and provide

digital services to world markets (promotion of

Ukrainian in the world); systematic acquisition of

new technologies by digital enterprises; receiving

income as a result of the application of inventions

produced by Ukrainian business entities in TCI

services;

- Creation of regional and industry funds for the

acquisition of technologies, the purpose of which

should be partial reimbursement of costs to

traditional enterprises for the purchase of licenses

for the improvement, modernization, and renewal of

production business processes in the direction of

their digitization;

- Creation of favorable conditions for innovation,

investment, and commercial activities of digital

enterprises within the national digital ecosystem in

technology parks. It is worth combining digital

enterprises according to industry affiliation, priority

of research types, and geographical proximity. We

believe that this will allow digital enterprises to

work more effectively within the framework of the

institutional mechanism, and will make it possible to

more effectively ‘pump’ the use of such functions of

this mechanism as control and stimulating. As a

result, the percentage of non-targeted use of

concessional lending intended for innovative digital

projects implemented by digital enterprises will

decrease.

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DOI: 10.37394/23207.2024.21.124

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Vitaly Kyrpushko

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Years

DFI in Ukraine,

million dollars

DFI from Ukraine,

million dollars

2002

693

-5

2003

1424

2004

1715

2005

7808

275

2006

5604

-133

2007

9891

673

2008

10913

1010

2009

4816

162

2010

6495

736

2011

7207

192

2012

8401

1206

2013

4499

420

2014

410

111

2015

-458

-51

2016

3810

2017

3692

2018

4455

-5

2019

5860

648

2020

-868

2021

6687

198

2022

1152

529

2023

4095

Fig. 5: Heat map of foreign direct investments in and from Ukraine in 2002–2023

Source: Compiled based on data from sources, [28]

In Figure 5, we tried to present the volume of

direct foreign investments in and from Ukraine

according to the principle of direction that is,

according to cash flows, using the visualized

capabilities of the heat map method.

The picture shows a color gamut of yellow,

orange, red, light green, and green. Red and orange

colors indicate the outflow of capital from the

country, and green shades indicate the inflow of

funds into the national economy.

Foreign direct investment is the most desirable

form of capital investment for any economy,

especially a developing one. It is this form of capital

investment that makes it possible to implement large

innovative and digital projects, in addition, new

technologies and new practices of corporate

management immediately arrive in the country,

[28]. We can see from the figure that in 2023,

foreign direct investment (DFI) in Ukraine increased

by $2,943 million compared to 2022. Foreign direct

investment from Ukraine in 2023 amounted to $6

million, which is $523 million less than in 2022

($529 million). The balance at the end of 2023 was

+556.3%, or $4,089 million.

3.4 Implementation of State Economic

Programs with the Participation of

Foreign Contractors

In the conditions of martial law during the

implementation of state economic programs with the

participation of foreign contractors, offset

requirements and the transfer of relevant

technologies should become mandatory conditions

for state procurement of goods, works, and services.

‘The competitive nature of the international defense

market has led to the development of new

procurement models that employ an arsenal of

carefully thought-out, cost-effective methods. Thus,

compensation ‘rules’ are part of trade relations and

are increasingly considered an innovative and

effective marketing mechanism for capturing a

significant portion of a new market or maintaining

traditional markets’, [29]. The existing types of

offset obligations are presented in Figure 6.

Based on this, we must remember that

‘preparation for offset obligations begins with a

price quotation, which can significantly reduce the

level of risk, as well as with an analysis of the

purchasing power of the project. The company’s

production capacity is then determined, including

4095

1152

6687

-868

5860

4455

3692

3810

-458

410

4499

8401

7207

6495

4816

10913

9891

5604

7808

1715

1424

693

-2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

The volume of DFI in Ukraine in 2002–2023

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those that cannot or should not be subcontracted for

production, by evaluating non-value-added capacity

that can be subcontracted. It is important to

determine which technologies can be subcontracted

for production. Thinking ‘outside the box’ and

transferring capacity that was previously produced

by a ‘traditional home supplier’ to new

subcontractors will help meet offset obligations. It

will not be superfluous to appoint an offset manager

who will help the company to better understand the

rules and laws in the client’s country (for example,

which products and technologies are recognized as

belonging to the offset category). It is important to

offer support and guidance during the transfer of

production from the company to the subcontractor

in the client country or from a ‘traditional’ supplier

to an additional offset supplier. The professionalism

of the offset manager will prevent or at least reduce

the risk of non-fulfillment of the project’s offset

obligations... Creative and ‘smart’ solutions will

help to implement the offset obligations quickly and

with minimal costs’, [29].

3.5 Forecasting the Export of

Telecommunications, Computer and

Information Services

We carried out a thorough analysis of the dynamics

of the export of services in terms of

telecommunications, computer, and information

services from 2000 to 2023, the export of research

and development services, professional and

consulting services, and scientific and technical

services from 2000 to 2023, and the volume of

foreign direct investments in Ukraine and from

Ukraine in 2002–2023 prompted us to forecast the

export of telecommunications, computer and

information services of Ukraine for 2024 using the

Holt-Winters model (Figure 7) and determine the

forecast volume of exports of services in the field of

telecommunications, computer and information

services of Ukraine for 2026, having carried out an

analytical alignment of the dynamic series. We have

data on the export of services in the field of

telecommunications, computer, and information

services of Ukraine for the period 2016–2021 (Table

1), which will allow us to determine the forecast

volume of exports of services in the field of

telecommunications, computer and information

services of Ukraine for 2026, having carried out an

analytical alignment of the dynamic series.

First, let’s check this dynamic series for the

presence of a trend, using the Cox-Stewart test. To

do this, let’s divide the series into three equal parts

and compare the corresponding members of the

series of the last and first third.

І third: 1 644,093; 1 760,794.

ІІІ third: 3 051,447; 4 031,998.

We get the following signs of level differences

(YІІІ – YІ): +; +; +; +.

The levels of the III third are greater than the

levels of the I third, then ‘pluses’ accumulate, which

means that there is a tendency for the levels to

increase in the series. Let’s select the form of the

analytical expression of the relationship using the

correlation field (Figure 8).

Visually, we conclude that the points fluctuate

around a straight line, so we approximate the trend

by a straight line:



  (1)

Since the number of levels in the series is even

n=6, we rank the time from 1 to n (by ordinal

ranks). We calculate the parameters of the trend

equation (Table 2).

Fig. 6: Types of offset obligations when purchasing imported products

Source: Grouped by source, [29]

Types of

offset

obligations

1. Investments in R&D

2. Joint production in the territory of the importing country

3. Localization of production in the territory of the importing country

4. Technology transfer

5. Development of digital, innovative and social infrastructure

6. Construction of specialized training centers, implementation of programs of training and

retraining of specialists in various fields for the importing country

7. Direct investments (including investments in investment projects not directly related to

the product supplier)

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DOI: 10.37394/23207.2024.21.124

Kateryna Kraus, Nataliia Kraus,

Galyna Pochenchuk, Oleksandr Manzhura,

Vitaly Kyrpushko

E-ISSN: 2224-2899

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Volume 21, 2024

Fig. 7: Forecasting the export of telecommunications, computer, and information services of Ukraine for 2024

according to the Holt-Winters model

Source: Compiled on the basis of data from source, [26]

Table 1. The volume of exports of services in the field of telecommunications, computer, and information

services of Ukraine in 2016–2021

Years

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

The volume of export of services, million US dollars

1 644,093

1 760,794

2 114,956

2 575,947

3 051,447

4 031,998

ІІ

ІІІ

Source: Compiled on the basis of data from source, [27]

Fig. 8: Correlation field of service export forecasting in the field of telecommunications, computer, and

information services of Ukraine in 2016–2026

Source: Built on data from source, [27]

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

ІІІ

quarter

2022

ІV

quarter

2022

quarter

2023

ІІ

quarter

2023

ІІІ

quarter

2023

ІV

quarter

2023

quarter

2024

ІІ

quarter

2024

ІІІ

quarter

2024

ІV

quarter

2024

Export of services, million US dollars

Quarterly periods of 2022-2024

Export of TKI

services

Export of TKI

services

adjusted for

the time factor

Forecast

1644,093 1760,795

2114,957

2575,948

3051,447

4031,998

y = 464,93x + 902,63

R² = 0,9274

0,000

1000,000

2000,000

3000,000

4000,000

5000,000

6000,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

The volume of export of services, million US

dollars

Years

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Table 2. Calculation of trend equation parameters of service export forecasting in the field of

telecommunications, computer, and information services of Ukraine in 2016–2021

Years

t²

у²





󰇛

󰇜

yy 100

ˆ

2016

1644,0930

1644,093

2703041,86

1367,55

276,54

76474,38

16,82

2017

1760,7946

3521,5892

3100397,55

1832,48

71,69

5138,94

4,07

2018

2114,9569

6344,8708

4473042,82

2297,41

182,45

33288,76

8,63

2019

2575,9478

10303,791

6635507,22

2762,34

186,39

34740,92

7,24

2020

3051,4475

15257,237

9311331,54

3227,27

175,82

30911,81

5,76

2021

4031,9980

24191,988

16257007,55

3692,19

339,80

115467,41

8,43

Together

15179,2378

61263,569

42480328,54

15179,24

296022,23

50,95

Average value

3,5

2529,8730

15,17

10210,595

7080054,76

2529,87

49337,04

8,49

Source: Calculated by the authors.

  

 

   

 󰇛󰇜

  

 



  

Explanation of trend equation parameters:

- parameter    – this is the value of

exports of services in the field of

telecommunications, computer and information

(TCI) services of Ukraine in the ‘zero’ period of

time (in 2015);

- parameter    – this is the annual

increase in the export of services in the field of

telecommunications, computer and information

services of Ukraine in million US dollars. The ‘+’

of the series.

Let’s check the closeness and essentiality of the

connection:

a) let’s calculate the linear correlation

coefficient:

tyty

r





(2)



󰇛󰇜





󰇛󰇜

 

The correlation coefficient (correlation ratio)

indicates a close ‘connection’ between the export of

services in the field of telecommunications,

computer and information services and ‘time’ (that

is, a set of reasons that persistently affect the export

of the specified services and determine the tendency

for their growth).

b) calculate Fisher’s test:

 󰇛󰇜

󰇛󰇜

(3)

where , а  

n – the number of studied population units (we

have n=6);

m – the number of parameters in the regression

equation (we have m=2 (a and b)).

 

Tabular (critical) value of Fisher’s F-test at  

  ,  is   . As

󰇛󰇜 more than 󰇛󰇜, then the

essentiality of the connection is proven.

Then, the forecast volume of exports of services

in the field of telecommunications, computer and

information services for 2026, the rank of which

will be  :



  



  million US dollars, but this is a

point forecast.

To obtain an interval forecast, we will find the

root mean square error of the model:

 󰇡



󰇢

 

󰇛󰇜

󰇛󰇜 (4)

where: υ – forecast bias period (υ = 5 years).

  million US dollars

The marginal error of the forecast at   

, where Student’s t-test (for    and n=5

 ):

     

Then, the interval forecast will be:

      

That is, in 2026, with a probability of error of

7.28%, the volume of exports of services in the field

of telecommunications, computer and information

services is predicted to be between 4,553,141 and

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Galyna Pochenchuk, Oleksandr Manzhura,

Vitaly Kyrpushko

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7,480,525 million US dollars.

We will also determine the relative error of

approximation – a criterion for assessing the

reliability of the forecast:

100

ti 





(5)

 

  

Since  does not exceed 15%, the approximation

is considered qualitative, and the forecast is reliable.

It is worth continuing to follow the path of

activation of small, medium and large digital

entrepreneurship in the field of telecommunications,

computer and information (TCI) services in

Ukraine, because from the analysis of statistical data

it is obvious that Ukrainian TCI services are

‘consumed’ by the world market, and this has had a

positive impact on Ukraine’s GDP for the last 10

years in a row. In order for the positive trend to

continue in the post-war economy, the following

aggressive (in a positive sense) steps are needed

today, including:

- Appropriate for the formation of digital

entrepreneurship, financial support for scientific and

technical activities in the information and

telecommunications sphere, which would be based

on the target principle and the plurality of financial

sources (concessional and mortgage lending,

venture financing, grants, direct and targeted

subsidies, risk insurance, franchising);

- Expansion of innovative and digital

infrastructure (virtual business techno-incubators,

business centers, technohubs, techno-forests,

industrial parks, consulting and auditing companies,

intellectual property centers);

- Restoring the pre-war level of active

cooperation on the implementation of joint

international projects and increasing the share of

acquisition of rights to patents and licenses from

Ukrainian inventors and researchers;

- The progressive development of the Ukrainian

market of intellectual property objects and the

elimination of existing gaps and contradictions in

the legal framework, which currently do not provide

and do not fully guarantee the legal protection of

this type of objects;

- Strengthening the work of digital enterprises

along the ‘business-customer-investor-government’

chain, where all participants receive their expected

socio-economic effects;

- The development of digital development

programs in which a mandatory condition would be

equity financing, which would allow a norm within

the limits of 50:50 for entrepreneurship in the ICT

and manufacturing industries.

4 Conclusion

Based on the results of our research, we came to the

conclusion that the key to the recovery of the war

and post-war economy of Ukraine will be

innovations and their support, attracting investments

from partners to rebuild entrepreneurship in

industry, production, agriculture, and the field of

information and communication technologies. The

government is expected to develop a mechanism to

stimulate innovation and digitization of the national

economy, support digital entrepreneurship and high

technologies and their export. The Government of

Ukraine should pay attention to the possibility of

obtaining socio-economic effects from the use of

tools for direct project support of innovative digital

projects by domestic enterprises. This is due to the

fact that the experience of using this tool in the

leading countries of the world has repeatedly

demonstrated its advantages due to its targeting,

flexibility and transparency.

The analyzed statistical data had a positive effect

on the professionalism of performing forecast

calculations and made it possible to say that in 2026,

with a probability of error of 7.28%, the volume of

exports of services in the field of

telecommunications, computer, and information

services is forecast to range from $4,553.141 to

$7,480.525 million. It is indicated that in the

conditions of martial law during the implementation

of state economic programs with the participation of

foreign contractors, mandatory conditions for state

procurement of goods, works and services should

become offset requirements and the transfer of

relevant technologies.

According to the Holt-Winters model, the

expected export volumes for the 4th quarter of 2024

were determined, namely: $1771 million, $1799

million, $1828 million, and $1857 million,

respectively. And for the economy of Ukraine,

which is in conditions under martial law, such

positive and growing expectations for the size of

exports only in the field of telecommunications,

computer, and information (TCI) services inspire

faith in the bright future of the Ukrainian economy.

Pursuing the goal of the fastest reconstruction of

the economy of Ukraine, it is also worth improving

the existing scientific and technological network in

terms of its branching, with an emphasis on high-

quality public-private partnerships. Develop a

program to support digital entrepreneurship in the

field of information and communication

technologies and open regional technology centers

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for joint work with local entrepreneurs. Programs

for the development of digital entrepreneurship in

the regions should have effective targeted

mechanisms for encouraging breakthrough and

technological innovations. So, for example, in the

western and central regions of Ukraine, where there

are the most relocated businesses from the eastern

and southern regions, it is worth implementing the

practice of introducing preferential taxation for

traditional enterprises with innovative technologies

and enterprises that are widely digitizing their

business processes. We consider it a consistent and

logical step for digital enterprises to provide

preferential loans for the purpose of introducing

innovative and breakthrough technologies into

production business processes.

Enterprises in which business activities are

digitized and which conduct innovative activities

must have access to ‘cheap’ money (monetary and

credit policy that allows keeping interest rates at a

low level, which in turn is carried out with the aim

of stimulating digital and innovative

entrepreneurship by reducing the cost investments

and loans). This would make it possible to reduce

official unemployment and shadow employment,

which was formed as a result of internal migration

of the population, which was provoked by the

consequences of martial law, the closure of large

enterprises in the eastern regions of Ukraine, and the

large-scale relocation of businesses from the

territories where hostilities are taking place or the

territories that are temporarily occupied.

Those innovative enterprises that created,

restored, or preserved jobs during martial law and

businesses whose activities are digitized and

managed to restore, preserve, and increase the

wages of employees should apply for loans. At the

same time, the digital enterprise should have an

investment goal precisely in terms of acquiring

fixed assets from domestic enterprises or carrying

out modernization with the participation of business

entities by purchasing new equipment from them or

receiving the latest services from them. Loans

should also be provided to digital enterprises for the

acquisition of objects of intellectual property rights,

under commercial concession (franchising)

contracts related to the implementation by the

digital enterprise of a credit and investment project

of an innovative direction. A mandatory condition

for this should be the fact of receiving dividends and

the right to full or partial ownership of the invention

to the team of developers and researchers who

created an innovative idea, an innovative product.

The role of not the last violin is also played by a

high-quality legislative framework, because it is the

legal foundation for the development of digital

entrepreneurship in the post-war period. It is

transparent and effective legal regulation that allows

digital business to be built on the principles of long-

term and the economic interest of investors and

entrepreneurs. We are definitely talking about

stimulating investments in risky entrepreneurship,

preferential lending, a number of ‘working’ laws on

technologies. We are convinced that it is worth

improving the patent system of Ukraine and the

related infrastructure, which would better protect the

export of finished products in the field of

telecommunications, computer, and information

services from our country.

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Contribution of Individual Authors to the

Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting

Policy)

- Kateryna Kraus, carry out a forecast of the export

of TCI services, write a methodology, formulate

measures and tools to promote the digitalization of

traditional entrepreneurship, draw up a heat map

of foreign direct investments, write a conclusion,

draw up a list of used literature.

- Nataliia Kraus, formulate the purpose and

objectives of the research, to carry out a literature

review, to formulate practical advice on increasing

the export of services in the field of TCI services,

generalization of state economic programs with

the participation of foreign contractors,

visualization of the presented material,

compilation of the list of used literature.

- Galyna Pochenchuk, writing the abstract of the

article, researching the types of offset obligations

when purchasing imported products.

- Oleksandr Manzhura, investigate a new socio-

technological method of production as a basis for

the post-war recovery of the countryʼs economy, a

selection of literature.

- Vitaly Kyrpushko, write an introduction to the

article, research foreign experience in increasing

the export of TCI services.

Sources of funding for research presented in a

scientific article or scientific article itself

Financing at the expense of authors (self-financing)

Conflict of Interest

This article is published in terms of scientific

research work ‘Development models of the wartime

and postwar economy of Ukraine based on digital

entrepreneurship and virtual business mobility’

(State registration number 0124U000066).

Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0

(Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0)

This article is published under the terms of the

Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en

_US

WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS

DOI: 10.37394/23207.2024.21.124

Kateryna Kraus, Nataliia Kraus,

Galyna Pochenchuk, Oleksandr Manzhura,

Vitaly Kyrpushko

E-ISSN: 2224-2899

1538

Volume 21, 2024