
buying and selling prices. As described by [4], the
relationship between the exchange rate and stock
returns exists as postulated by the flow-oriented
theory of exchange rate behavior. Also, it is
common knowledge that foreign exchange trading is
a risky financial instrument due to its volatility,
where even in recent events, the Central Bank of
Malaysia would need to intervene in the market to
stabilize the currency, [5]. In addition, it should not
only at a one-currency basis, but also on a
combination of currencies as the rise and fall of the
currencies among various countries usually occur
concurrently due to various reasons such as foreign
direct investments, international trading, demand,
and supply in the foreign exchange market, and
common financial regulations. However, performing
such a study will normally give rise to two common
issues, which are multidimensionality and
multicollinearity.
The occurrence of multidimensionality where the
presence of multiple x and multiple y are considered
as well as multicollinearity where the variables
studied are related or influenced by one another in
finance have always been a study of great interest.
As multicollinearity can only exist when there is
multidimensionality, they normally co-exist with
one another. Much research managed to show
evidence of its presence in various financial
applications. In terms of multidimensionality, [6],
studies ten different types of commodities listed on
ASEAN’s five stock markets. On Bursa Malaysia’s
website, there is a list of thirteen commodities’
indices that are being categorized. Regarding
foreign exchange rates, Bank Negara Malaysia
(BNM) recorded four different trading times as well
as twenty-seven exchange rates with the Malaysian
Ringgit (MYR), [7]. Hence, it can be observed that
the involvement of multidimensionality is
important, especially in the application context of
this study.
On multicollinearity, multicollinearity tests were
performed in studies such as [8], that modeled the
Indonesian Composite Index and performed the
multicollinearity tests using the VIF (Variance
Inflation Factor) approach where it was proven that
multicollinearity exists among the predictor
variables. From [9], the Apple Inc. stock returns and
two tests on multicollinearity were performed,
which are the VIF and condition index. From his
study, both test results concluded that
multicollinearity exists due to a strong correlation
among the explanatory variables. Adding on, [10],
compared two classical methods in detecting
multicollinearity in a time series data for finance as
well as economic sectors where both methods
showed that multicollinearity exists. Besides that,
foreign exchange rates also seem to contain
multicollinearity between the bank forecast,
univariate time series forecast along with the
forward price for exchange rates, [11], between the
various countries, [12], as well as between the
opening, opening low, and closing prices of stock
indices, which is similar to the foreign exchange
rate, [9].
Though the presence of multicollinearity can be
observed in various financial applications, a
common assumption where the variables are
independent or are not correlated to one another is
posited in many regression models. However, the
assumption of independence could be violated in
some cases and lead to issues in constructing the
model. Firstly, the estimated coefficients of the
model can be unstable and will vary greatly from
one sample to the next. Secondly, it undermines the
statistical significance of independent variables
since it might increase the standard errors of the
estimated coefficient as stated in [13], which might
result in inaccurate statistical analyses. It is evident
in [14], where two Monte Carlo simulations were
performed, and it was shown that the presence of
multicollinearity is capable of causing theory testing
problems with different levels of impact depending
on its severity. [15], also stated that the relationship
direction between explanatory variables has the
biggest impact on the variance inflation factor
especially when the variables are prone to errors and
the measurement error influences multicollinearity
in all circumstances.
Hence, to resolve the issue of multicollinearity
needs, the multidimensional measurement error
model with multicollinearity (MMEMc) was
developed. As the name implies, the MMEMc
model can cater to multidimensional data that also
contains multicollinearity where it functions in
measuring the similarity or dissimilarity between
two sets of data. To better understand the
relationship and trend of the foreign exchange rates,
we would need to study the gap between the buying
and selling prices of the foreign exchange rates
along with combinations of various currencies
where the similarity or dissimilarity measure could
be performed. Hence, we can apply the MMEMc
model in fitting the buying (x) and selling (y) prices
of the foreign exchange data which may potentially
contain the presence of multicollinearity among the
various countries. Through this study, the results
may assist financial investors in maximizing their
profits through foreign exchange trading and be
prepared for possible stock market integration
shortly.
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2024.21.94
Dennis Wen Wei Ng, Yun Fah Chang,
Premagowrie Sivanandan, Wei Shean Ng