Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Models to Investigate the Impact of
Foreign Trade on Economic Growth in Sudan
BADRELDIN MOHAMED AHMED ABDULRAHMAN1,a,
ANAS GAREEBALLAH AHMED IBRAHIM2, HASHIM ABDALLAH ADAM DAWALBAIT3
1Department of Business Administration,
College of Business, Jouf University,
SAUDI ARABIA
2Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics and Management Science,
University of Bakht Al-Ruda,
SUDAN
3Department of Statistics and Population Studies, Faculty of Economics and Social Studies,
University of EL Fasher,
SUDAN
aORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2174-1150
Abstract: - Foreign commerce is the term for the exchange of goods and services between nations, and it is
subject to a wide range of laws, rules, and agreements. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the link
between Sudan's economic growth, imports, and exports from 2005 to 2022. Based on a descriptive, analytical,
and econometrics methodology, the study estimated the relationship between the study variables using a
nonlinear autoregressive model (NARDL). The study's conclusions indicate that, during the study period,
exports had a short-term negative influence on the rate of growth in the economy but a positive long-term
impact. Additionally, imports have a short-term favorable effect on economic growth rates but a long-term
negative one.
Key-Words: - exports, imports, economic growth, self-regression, long run, foreign trade, autoregressive model,
nonlinear, international trade.
Received: November 18, 2023. Revised: January 13, 2024. Accepted: February 5, 2024. Published: March 1, 2024
1 Introduction
Theories about the process of international trade
have emerged because of decades of interest in and
need for it. As argued by [1], a country is considered
to have a deficit if its exports exceed its imports;
thus, a nation with a surplus in its trade balance is
one whose imports exceed its exports. This means
that an increase in exports is a sign of the nation's
growth and prosperity, as well as the revival of its
commercial activity, and the more heavily a country
depends on imports, the more this is an indicator of
growth. [2], defined both visible and invisible
international transactions as the transfer of goods to
individuals and capital as well as international trade
transactions in their various forms that take place
between individuals or between governments and
economic organizations residing in different
political units. Concerning the economy of Sudan to
determine the shape of a variable connection and to
empirically analyze the import demand function
from 1998 to 2017, [3], used an econometric model
to determine critical factors that impact the degree
of import demand and also showed that relative
pricing and national income have a favorable effect
on the overall amount of imports. Comparatively
speaking, the exchange rate has less of an effect
than other factors. Additionally, [4], processed
agricultural exports are positively correlated with
economic expansion, while unprocessed agricultural
exports are negatively correlated with the economy's
expansion.
This study aims to:
A. measure Sudan's exports, imports, and economic
growth using the NARDL model.
B. recognize how exports and economic expansion
are related.
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2024.21.60
Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman,
Anas Gareeballah Ahmed Ibrahim,
Hashim Abdallah Adam Dawalbait
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
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C. recognize the connection between economic
expansion and imports.
In keeping with the goal, we attempt to respond to
the following queries in this research:
- How do exports impact Sudan's economic growth
over the short and long terms?
- What are the short- and long-term effects of
imports on Sudan's economic growth?
The rest of the research paper is organized as
follows: The literature is reviewed in Section 2. The
model, hypothesis, and research methodology are
covered in Section 3. The findings and results are
covered in Section 4. Finally, section five reports
the conclusion remarks.
2 Review of Literature
At the top of the list of priorities for both developed
and developing nations is long-term economic
growth, which is defined as enhancing the
economy's capacity to produce as indicated by an
increase in the absolute or relative value of the gross
domestic product or per capita income over time. A
state's ability to offer a varied range of economic
goods to its citizens is referred to as economic
growth. This growing increase in productive
capacity is based on institutional adjustments that
are required as well as technological advancements
and necessary ideological shifts, [5], [6].
Foreign aid, exports of goods and services, and
foreign direct investment (FDI) all have a
significant impact on a country's socioeconomic
growth; both developing and underdeveloped
countries place a high priority on these sources. The
links between several variables, such as exports,
foreign aid, FDI, and economic expansion in
Vietnam, are examined in this study. Vietnam's
economic growth was examined empirically by
applying a linear technique using a time-series data
set covering the years 1997 to 2018. The effects of
exports, foreign aid, and FDI were assessed. The
World Bank and pertinent Vietnamese authorities
provided data for this study, [7]. As mentioned by
[8] and [9], development enthusiasts have been
thinking about the connection between export
success and growth in the economy in recent years.
In [10], the author made the case that exports of
both petroleum and other products were essential to
Saudi Arabia's economy between 2005 and 2019,
the investigation used an empirical approach to
examine how exports affected Saudi Arabia's
economic performance. The outcomes showed how
exports, both non-oil and oil, advantageously impact
economic performance.
Authors in [11], looked at the impact of
imported goods, exported goods, and domestic
investment on Peru's GDP utilizing data from 1970
to 2017. Imports, exports, and domestic investment
have minimal impact on the economy, either in the
short or long term, according to the analysis. These
results demonstrate that trade liberalization and
domestic investment, despite various problems and
an unsuitable economic framework, are not the
causes of Peru's sustained economic expansion.
The research made by [12], revealed a dual
causal connection between imports and exports, as
well as a long-term balanced relationship between
exports, imports, and economic development in
Algeria. [13], also revealed that there is a morally
important relationship between oil exports and
economic progress in the Republic of Iraq.
Furthermore, [14] and [15], examined the
asymmetric relationship between Turkey's growth
rate and the growth rate of imported goods and
services from 1988 to 2019 using the NARDL
model and two distinct measures of economic
growth rate. The estimation results demonstrated a
nonlinear positive correlation between the growth
rates of imports and the economy. Meanwhile, [16],
examined the impact of foreign direct investment
(FDI) on economic growth in lower-middle-income
developing countries between 2000 and 2014 and
provided fresh and relevant quantitative data.
According to research by [17], there is no set
threshold value for capital inflows about
manufacturing exports in Nigeria. The study used
threshold regression econometric techniques to
examine the most effective amount of capital
inflows for the growth of manufacturing exports and
the economy in Nigeria from 1981 to 2017.
The export of goods and services can have a
significant impact on society's overall demand, [18],
[19], therefore, a rise in income levels can result
from an increase in demand, and this increase can
then be further amplified through the multiplier
effect. All macroeconomic variables and exports
were found to be positively correlated in the study,
except the exchange rate, which negatively affects
Sudan's low-income, agriculture-based economy. In
the meantime, between 2000 and 2016. Meanwhile,
[20], used the Generalized Method of Moments
model to investigate the consequences of technology
and exports on the performance of rising Asian
countries in terms of their economies.
Based on the Solow growth equation model, the
findings demonstrated that technology and exports
had a major and beneficial influence on economic
growth. Thus, [21], evaluated how decentralized
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DOI: 10.37394/23207.2024.21.60
Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman,
Anas Gareeballah Ahmed Ibrahim,
Hashim Abdallah Adam Dawalbait
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fiscal management affects the economic
performance of developing federations by assessing
the effects of tax income and expenditure
decentralization on economic growth. The findings
showed that the perceived levels of corruption and
the caliber of the nation's institutions have an impact
on the relationship between fiscal decentralization
and economic growth.
According to [22], exporting high-tech goods is
crucial for an entire nation's prosperity. This study
used a causality analysis to look at how high-tech
exports affected Turkey's economic growth. The
results showed that Turkey's industrialization
policies had shifted from import substitution to
export-oriented, with the liberalization process
having been virtually finished in the 1990s. Turkey
has implemented significant industrialization
programs, with a focus on fortifying the export
system, to support its competitive advantages. When
one considers the results of the Granger Causal
Analysis Test in conjunction with the impulse-
response and variance decomposition studies,
exports of high-technology items increase GDP.
The rate of economic growth of a nation has a
significant impact on its economic development,
[23], [24], [25], economic growth measures are
useful tools that a country can utilize to guide its
economic policy decisions and progress its
economic objectives, the technique's calculations
explain the long-term negative association between
price increases and economic expansion, [26], [27].
So that high economic development and recovery
are possible outcomes, as mentioned by [28], if
trade is liberalized, natural resource prices are
stabilized, green financing is encouraged, and
energy investment is increased. In contrast authors
in [29], found that Trade openness and economic
growth do not have a two-way causal relationship.
This study distinguishes itself from other research
by employing non-linear autoregressive models to
examine the influence of foreign trade (exports and
imports) on economic growth in Sudan from 2005 to
2022.
3 Methodology
The interaction across exports, imports, and growth
in the economy in Sudan over the study period
(1990–2022) has been explored utilizing a
descriptive, analytical, and econometric approach.
The nonlinear autoregressive technique (NARDL)
was utilized to estimate the association between the
research variables. As Sudan works to encourage
exports, which increase the nation's gross domestic
product, the study focuses on the importance of
imports and exports for Sudan. It is believed that
one of the primary goals of economic policy is
exports. The following are the research hypotheses
to fulfill the following objectives:
a. exports have an adverse long-term impact on
economic growth.
b. exports have an encouraging short-term
contribution to growth.
c. imports have a favorable long-term impact on
economic growth, but they also have a short-
term negative impact.
The study model takes the following general form:
GDP = f (Export, Import) (1)
The specific form takes the form:
GDP = α+β1 Export+ β2 Import+ ε (2)
Where:
GDP: represents the economic growth rate;
EXPORT: represents the volume of exports;
IMPORT: represents the volume of imports.
According to economic theory, export and import
activities are essential to a country's economic
growth. These activities not only facilitate
international trade but also make significant
contributions to a country's GDP, employment, and
overall development.
4 Results
4.1 Bound Test
A bound test is conducted to determine whether a
long-term equilibrium relationship (co-integration)
exists between variables (exports and imports) and
the rate of economic growth. It is compared to the
critical f value set by [30] and the F values that were
found for the coefficients of the slowed independent
variables. The test will be conducted based on the
following null hypothesis: There is no long-term
equilibrium link between the variables.
Table 1. Bounds test results
Test Statistic
Value
Signif.
I(1)
Asymptotic: n = 1000
F-statistic
3.696109
10%
3.01
k
4
5%
3.48
2.50%
3.9
1%
4.44
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Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman,
Anas Gareeballah Ahmed Ibrahim,
Hashim Abdallah Adam Dawalbait
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Table 2. NARDL results
Variable
Coefficient
S.E
t-stat
Prob.
GDP(-1)*
0.046582
0.051245
0.909
0.3936
EXPORT_POS (-1)
- 0.00072
0.000241
- 2.99022
0.0202
EXPORT_NEG (-1)
- 0.00056
0.000148
- 3.77302
0.007
IMPORT_POS**
0.000317
0.000196
1.618497
0.1496
IMPORT_NEG** 0.00038 0.000196 1.938594 0.0937
D(GDP(-1))
0.634545
0.209249
3.032493
0.019
D(EXPORT_POS)
0.000186
0.000209
0.892428
0.4018
D(EXPORTX_NEG)
-0.00079
0.000188
- 4.2125
0.004
** Variable interpreted as Z = Z (-1) + D (Z) .
Levels Equation
Case 1: No Constant and No Trend
Variable
Coefficient
S.E
t-stat
Prob.
EXPORT_POS
0.015498
0PPPP0.013933
1.112349
0.3027
EXPORT_NEG
0.011996
0.012098
0.991529
0.3545
IMPORT_POS
- 0.00681
0.008328
- 0.81789
0.4404
IMPORT_NEG
- 0.00816
0.009837
- 0.82989
0.434
The Equation:
EC = GDP - (0.0155*EXPORT_POS +
0.0120*EXPORT_NEG - 0.0068*IMPORT_POS -
0.0082
(3)
According to Table 1, the model's estimated
Fisher F-statistic value of 3.696 transcends the
upper boundaries at 5% significance, hence leading
to the rejection of the null hypothesis that a stable
long-term connection exists. The alternative
hypothesis, which contends that the research
variables have a long-term balanced relationship, is
accepted as we move from the explanatory factors to
the dependent variable, GDP.
Referred to in the NARDL model are the long-
run estimation results. As Table 2 above makes
evident, over time, the positive shock to the variable
(EXPORT_POS) had a positive impact on the
dependent variable, gross domestic product (GDP).
This effect was statistically significant (0.3027),
meaning that a 1% increase in GDP resulted in a
1.5% increase in GDP.
With a significant value of 0.3545, which is
larger than 5%, the positive shock to the variable
(EXPORT_NEG) had a long-term positive impact
on the dependent variable, GDP, when a 1% rise
resulted in a 1.1% increase in GDP.
A positive shock to the variable IMPORT_POS
has long-term negative effects on the dependent
variable, gross domestic product (GDP). These
effects are significant (0.4404), which is more than
5% because a 1% increase in GDP leads to a
0.681% drop in GDP. A long-term negative impact
of the positive shock to the variable
(IMPORT_NEG) on the dependent variable, gross
domestic product (GDP), was observed , with a
significant value (0.434) greater than 5%. This is
because a 1% increase in GDP results in a 0.681%
decrease in GDP.
A brief tribute to the NARDL model is
mentioned in the results. Therefore, the short-term
impact of the positive shock to the variable
(EXPORT_POS (-1)) on the dependent variable,
GDP, was negative and had a significant value
(0.020). The short-term impact of the positive shock
to the variable (EXPORT_NEG (-1)) on the
dependent variable, GDP, was negative and had a
significant value (0.007), less than 5% since a 1%
increase in GDP causes a 0.056% decrease in GDP.
As an increase of 1% results in an increase in
GDP of 0.0317%, the positive shock to the variable
(IMPORT_POS) had a positive short-term effect on
the dependent variable, gross domestic product
(GDP), with a significant value (0.419), which is
greater than 5%. Short-term effects of the positive
shock to the variable (IMPORT_NEG) included a
1% increase in GDP, which had a significant value
(0.0937), more than 5%, on the dependent variable.
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The model suffers from the problem of a non-
normal distribution of errors, as its Jarque-Bera test
statistic reached 0.580 with a significance level of
0.748, which is greater than 5%. Therefore, we
accept the null hypothesis that the data is normally
distributed.
4.2 Serial Link Test
It is a test related to the extent of correlation
between model errors in slower periods. We can test
this problem through the Breusch-Godfrey Serial
Correlation LM Test. The test results were as
follows:
Table 3. Serial correlation test
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
0.310147
Prob. F(2,5)
0.7465
Obs*R-squared
1.655503
Prob. Chi-Square (2)
0.437
Table 4. Variation of error term variance
Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey
F-statistic 2.74707 Prob. F (8,6) 0.1174
Obs*R-squared 11.78302
Prob. Chi-
Square (8)
0.1612
Scaled explained
SS 1.997237
Prob. Chi-
Square (8) 0.9811
Given that the test's probability value was larger
than 5% and there is no serial correlation issue,
Table 3's test results support the null hypothesis,
indicating that the model is not plagued by a serial
correlation issue.Table 4 shows that, when the test's
(P-value) is compared to 5%, there is no difficulty
with changing the variance of the random error.
Given that the chi-square test value is 0.1612 and
that there is no change in the variance of the error
term if it is more than 5%, we accept the null
hypothesis. This entails adopting the null
hypothesis, which states that there is absolutely
nothing wrong with changing the random error
term's variance.
5 Conclusion Remarks
The study results indicate that model (2, 1, 1, 0, 0) is
the most effective modified model that satisfies the
AIC requirement for evaluating the impact of
imports and exports on Sudan's economic growth
rate. The economic growth rate, the dependent
variable, and the imports and exports, the
independent variables, have a cointegration
connection, according to the limits test for
cointegration. The results of the study showed that
exports had a long-term beneficial impact on the
pace of economic growth and a short-term negative
influence throughout the examination. The study's
conclusions showed that imports had a negative
long-term impact on the pace of economic
expansion.
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Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman,
Anas Gareeballah Ahmed Ibrahim,
Hashim Abdallah Adam Dawalbait
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Contribution of Individual Authors to the
Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting
Policy)
The authors equally contributed to the present
research, at all stages from the formulation of the
problem to the final findings and solution.
Sources of Funding for Research Presented in a
Scientific Article or Scientific Article Itself
No funding was received for conducting this study.
Conflict of Interest
The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
(Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0)
This article is published under the terms of the
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_US
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2024.21.60
Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman,
Anas Gareeballah Ahmed Ibrahim,
Hashim Abdallah Adam Dawalbait
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
725
Volume 21, 2024