Renewable Energy in the European Union:
The State of the Art and Directions of Development
MARCIN RELICH
Faculty of Economics and Management,
University of Zielona Gora,
Licealna 9, 65-417 Zielona Gora,
POLAND
Abstract: The transition of the energy system in the European Union (EU) from non-renewable to renewable
energy aims to guarantee the energy supply, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce energy costs, and lead to
industrial development, growth, and occupation. The revised renewable energy directive EU/2023/2413 raises
the binding renewable target for the EU in 2030 to a minimum of 42.5%. This means almost doubling the
existing share of energy from renewable sources in the EU. This study is concerned with presenting state-of-
the-art regarding renewable energy sources in EU countries, predicting the share of renewable energy in 2030,
and investigating the relationships between this share and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The
results of the research indicate a significant relationship between increasing renewable energy sources and
decreasing greenhouse gas emissions in the EU.
Key-Words: - energy production, renewable energy sources, renewable energy targets, sustainable
development, electricity production capacities, greenhouse gas emissions.
Received: March 15, 2023. Revised: December 18, 2023. Accepted: January 13, 2024. Published: February 2, 2024.
1 Introduction
The negative effects of fossil fuels on the natural
environment over the past decades caused
renewable energy sources (RESs) to play a crucial
role in today's world. Reducing the consumption of
fossil fuels, increasing the interest in alternative
energy sources such as solar, wind, geothermal,
hydro, tidal, and biomass energy. RESs have a
significant importance in reducing carbon dioxide
and other harmful gasses. Consequently, many
governments and organizations, including the
European Union, support renewable energy policy.
Directions of the EU energy policy include the
development of RESs, the improvement of energy
efficiency and security of fuel and energy supplies,
the diversification of the electricity generation
structure, and the reduction of negative effects of
the energy sector on the environment, [1].
RESs are a very important part of the concept of
sustainable development and sustainable energy.
Sustainable development of energy merges the
RESs concept with economic, social, and
environmental dimensions, [2]. The sustainable
energy development process is supported within the
EU energy policy through developing technologies
dedicated to RESs, as well as cogeneration of
thermal energy and electricity, [1]. It is noteworthy
that energy efficiency is already considered at the
level of product design, particularly by designing
electrical devices, [3].
The use of RESs can affect positively
consumers’ electricity bills, particularly during high
prices of fossil fuels, [4]. Moreover, RESs save
fossil fuels, and they can reduce the EU's
dependence on unpredictable suppliers of fossil
fuels. In addition to this, RESs correspond to the
growing ecological awareness of society, among
other things, the harmful impact on the environment
that results from using fossil fuels for energy
production.
There are a few studies devoted to RESs in the
EU. The role of renewable and non-renewable
energy in CO2 emissions for the EU was described
in, [5]. The assessment of RESs in the years 2008-
2014, and scenarios to achieve target 2020 was
presented in, [6]. This assessment is based on three
indicators: share of RESs, primary production of
RESs per capita, and gross final consumption of
RESs per capita. The share of RESs in the final
energy consumption in the EU for the period 1995-
2016 was described in, [7]. Changes in the energy
structure among EU countries over the period 2008-
2018 were presented in, [8]. This structure was
described through indicators regarding renewable
and biofuel energy consumption and production,
share of renewable energy, electricity generation,
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and inland consumption. The study investigating the
relationship between economic growth and
renewable energy consumption in the EU for years
from 1995 to 2015 was illustrated in, [9], [10], [11],
[12]. In turn, the impact of economic growth,
renewable energy, tourism arrivals, and
international trade on carbon dioxide emissions in
the EU for the period 1995-2014 was presented in,
[13]. RESs in the context of sustainable
development and environmental security were
presented in, [14], [15]. In turn, RESs from the
perspective of energy security in the EU were
described in, [16], [17]. The role of research and
development expenditure in the transition from non-
renewable to renewable energy in the EU was
presented in, [18]. Also, the effect of financial
development on renewable energy consumption was
investigated in, [19]. Moreover, some research
refers to a specific type of RESs, for example,
photovoltaic, [20], [21] or wind energy, [21], [22],
[23].
The literature review indicated that there is no
current research devoted to RESs in the EU after
2018 and their impact on reducing the amount of
greenhouse gases. The lack of studies dedicated to
the mentioned area was the motivation to carry out
relevant research in the recent years in this area.
Moreover, this research investigates the possibility
to achieve renewable energy targets for 2030,
considering linear models based on regression
analysis.
The paper is organized as follows: Section 2
includes the description of data collection and
research hypotheses. Section 3 presents the results
of data analysis and findings, including data analysis
of RESs, predicting the share of renewable energy,
and verifying research hypotheses. Section 4
presents a discussion and conclusion.
2 Data Collection and Hypotheses
The data was collected from European Statistical
System (Eurostat) datasets, namely the area of
sustainable development (sdg), environment (env),
and energy (nrg). Among sustainable development
indicators, there was selected the share of renewable
energy in gross final energy consumption
(sdg_07_40). This indicator belongs to Goal 7 of
sustainable development named affordable and
clean energy. Moreover, the share of renewable
energy can be presented from the perspective of
transport, electricity, and heating and cooling. At the
moment of preparing this study (November 2023),
Eurostat provides datasets for the years 2004-2021.
Among datasets related to the environment, there
were selected indicators regarding greenhouse gas
emissions and air pollutants. These datasets include
indicators determined for the years 2012-2021. The
last dataset refers to the area of energy, and it
includes electricity production capacities for
renewables and wastes. This dataset also includes
indicators determined for the years 2012-2021.
Apart from the mentioned Eurostat datasets,
there was also collected data related to renewable
energy targets that are accessible on the webpage of
the European Commission, [24]. These targets were
widespread in EU directives of renewable energy
2018/2001 and 2023/2413.
In this research, the following datasets were
collected from Eurostat databases:
- the share of renewable energy in gross final
energy consumption (data code: sdg_07_40);
- electricity production capacities for
renewables and wastes (data code:
nrg_inf_epcrw);
- air pollutants by source sector (data code:
env_air_emis);
- greenhouse gas emissions by source sector
(data code: env_air_gge).
This research aims to verify the following
hypotheses:
H1: there is a significant dependence between
increasing RESs and decreasing the amount of
greenhouse gases in the EU;
H2: there is a significant dependence between
increasing RESs and decreasing the amount of
carbon monoxide in the EU;
H3: there is significant dependence between
increasing RESs and decreasing the amount of
sulphur oxides in the EU;
H4: there is significant dependence between
increasing RESs and decreasing the amount of
ammonia in the EU;
H5: there is a significant dependence between
increasing RESs and decreasing the amount of
particulates < 2.5µm in the EU;
H6: there is a significant dependence between
increasing RESs and decreasing the amount of
Particulates < 10 µm in the EU.
The verification of the above-presented
hypotheses is carried out using regression analysis.
3 Data Analysis and Findings
This section consists of three parts: 1) data analysis
regarding RESs in the EU; 2) predicting RESs; and
3) verifying research hypotheses.
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3.1 Data Analysis of RESs
Data analysis refers to the presentation of the share
of renewable energy in the EU in years 2004-2021,
and the share of renewable energy in all EU
countries in 2021. Moreover, data analysis includes
the presentation of all renewable energy sources, as
well as their distinction in the context of transport,
electricity, and heating and cooling (data code:
sdg_07_40).
Figure 1 illustrates the share of renewable energy
in gross final energy consumption in the EU in the
years 2004-2021. The share of renewable energy
increased from 9.6% in 2004 to 21.8% in 2021. The
annual increase of renewable energy in gross final
energy consumption in the EU was about 0.71%. It
is noteworthy that the share of renewable energy in
2020 (22.0%) was larger than in 2021. This can
result from the restrictions related to the coronavirus
pandemic (COVID-19), such as lockdowns and
delays in public investment projects regarding
RESs.
Fig. 1: The share of renewable energy in gross final
energy consumption in the EU
Figure 2 presents the share of renewable energy
in gross final energy consumption in all EU
countries in 2021. The greatest share was in Sweden
(62.6%), Finland (43.1%), and Latvia (42.1%).
Twelve EU countries have a share above the EU
average (21.8%), whereas fifteen countries are
below this average.
Fig. 2: The share of renewable energy in EU
countries in 2021
Figure 3 illustrates the share of renewable energy
sources in transport in the EU in the years 2004-
2021. The share of RESs in transport increased from
1.4% in 2004 to 9.1% in 2021. The annual increase
of renewable energy in transport in the EU was
about 0.47%. The share of RESs in transport also
decreased in 2021 compared to 2020 (10.2%).
Fig. 3: The share of RESs in transport in the EU
Figure 4 presents the share of RESs in transport
in all EU countries in 2021. The greatest share was
in Sweden (30.4%) and Finland (20.5%). Seventeen
EU countries have a share below the EU average
(9.1%), whereas ten countries are above the average.
Fig. 4: The share of RESs in transport in EU
countries in 2021
Figure 5 illustrates the share of renewable
energy sources in electricity in the EU in the years
2004-2021. The share of RESs in electricity
increased from 15.9% in 2004 to 37.5% in 2021.
The annual increase of renewable energy in
electricity in the considered period was about
1.35%.
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Fig. 5: The share of RESs in electricity in the EU
Figure 6 presents the share of RESs in
electricity in all EU countries in 2021. The greatest
share was in Austria (76.2%) and Sweden (75.7%).
Seventeen EU countries have a share below the EU
average (37.5%), whereas ten countries are above
the average.
Fig. 6: The share of RESs in electricity in EU
countries in 2021
Figure 7 illustrates the share of renewable
energy sources in heating and cooling in the EU in
the years 2004-2021. The share of RESs in heating
and cooling increased from 11.7% in 2004 to 22.9%
in 2021. The annual increase of renewable energy in
heating and cooling in the considered period was
about 0.66%.
Fig. 7: The share of RESs in heating and cooling in
the EU
Figure 8 presents the share of RESs in heating
and cooling in all EU countries in 2021. The
greatest share was in Sweden (68.6%), Estonia
(61.3%), and Latvia (57.4%). Seventeen EU
countries have a share above the EU average
(22.9%), whereas ten countries are below this
average.
Fig. 8: The share of RESs in heating and cooling in
EU countries in 2021
Figure 9 illustrates the electricity production
capacities for renewables and wastes in the EU in
the years 2012-2021. The greatest electricity
production in 2021 was related to wind energy.
Moreover, a significant part of electricity production
in 2021 was provided by solar and hydro energy. It
is noteworthy that wind and solar energy had a
particularly large increase in the recent decade.
Fig. 9: Electricity production capacities for
renewables in the EU (in Megawatt)
Figure 10 presents the share of electricity
production capacities for renewables and wastes in
the EU in two years: 2012 and 2021. Hydroenergy
provided the greatest part of electricity production
in 2012. Ten years later hydro energy provides a
very similar volume of electricity production, but
wind and solar energy have the greater share of
electricity production. It is noteworthy that the share
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of geothermal and tidal energy in electricity
production in the EU is below one percent.
Fig. 10: The share of electricity production
capacities for renewables in the EU in 2012 and
2021
3.2 Predicting the Share of Renewable
Energy
According to the Renewable Energy Directive
2018/2001 EU established a binding renewable
energy target for the EU in 2030 of at least 32%.
However, the revised renewable energy directive
EU/2023/2413 raises the binding renewable target
for the EU in 2030 to a minimum of 42.5%, with the
aspiration to reach 45%. This means almost
doubling the existing share of energy from
renewable sources in the EU, [24].
Achieving this target seems to be unrealistic,
considering the annual increase in renewable energy
in the last 20 years. This increase was on average
about 0.71%. Figure 11 presents the linear model
determined through regression analysis for
renewable energy in gross final energy consumption
in the EU. Using the linear model, the prediction of
renewable energy in the EU will reach 28.5% in
2030. There should be exponential growth to reach
the renewable energy target of 42.5% in 2030.
Fig. 11: Prediction of the share of renewable energy
in gross final energy consumption in the EU
Figure 12 illustrates the prediction of renewable
energy sources in transport in the EU in the period
to 2030. The prediction of renewable energy in the
EU reaches about 14% in 2030 using the linear
model.
Fig. 12: Prediction of RESs in transport in the EU
Figure 13 presents the forecast of renewable
energy sources for electricity in the EU in the years
up to 2030. The prediction of renewable energy in
the EU reaches about 50% in 2030 based on the
linear model.
Fig. 13: Prediction of RESs in electricity in the EU
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Figure 14 illustrates the prediction of RESs in
heating and cooling in the EU in the period to 2030.
The prediction of renewable energy in the EU is
about 30% in 2030 using the linear model.
Fig. 14: Prediction of RESs in heating and cooling
in the EU
3.3 Verifying Research Hypotheses
The first hypothesis refers to the dependence
between renewable energy sources and greenhouse
gases. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxides,
nitrogen oxides, methane, hydrofluorocarbons,
perfluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluorides, and nitrogen
trifluoride. Figure 15 presents the linear model for
renewable energy sources and greenhouse gases on
a scatter plot.
Fig. 15: Relationship between RESs and greenhouse
gases
Table 1 includes statistics regarding the
verification of considered hypotheses.
Table 1. Statistics related to the verification of
hypotheses
Variable
R square
/ p-value
t-stat
/ f-stat
Greenhouse gases
0.825
/ 2.33E-13*
6.156
/ 37.89
Carbon dioxide
0.776
/ 6.23E-13*
5.262
/ 27.68
Carbon monoxide
0.926
/ 0.234
10.048
/ 100.95
Nitrogen oxides
0.991
/ 1.64E-07*
29.651
/ 879.20
Sulfur oxides
0.891
/ 3.79E-09*
8.084
/ 65.35
Ammonia
0.586
/ 1.26E-09*
3.369
/ 11.35
Particulates
< 2.5µm
0.849
/ 4.92E-10*
6.723
/ 45.19
Particulates
< 10 µm
0.816
/ 7.47E-10*
5.963
/ 35.55
Note: * means the significance level at 0.05
All considered hypotheses apart from H3
(Carbon monoxide) were positively verified for the
significance level at 0.05. Moreover, all variables
apart from ammonia have a significant correlation
between RESs and exogenous variables. The
increase in energy productivity from RESs results in
decreasing the use of fossil fuels. Consequently, the
amount of greenhouse gases is reduced. As a result,
there is a significant negative correlation between
RESs and the majority of exogenous variables. It is
noteworthy that the presented methodology can be
smoothly applied in other areas of business and
economics.
4 Discussion and Conclusion
Renewables are a crucial factor in creating the EU
energy system. The renewable energy directives
obligate EU countries to adjust national renewable
energy plans and achieve renewable energy targets.
RESs enable to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
leading to less demand for fossil fuels, and improve
energy stability in the EU through reducing
dependency on unpredictable suppliers of fossil
fuels.
The contribution of this research is the
presentation of renewable energy sources in the EU
over the last years, the prediction of the share of
renewable energy in 2030, and the determination of
relationships between this share and the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions. Previous research of
RESs in the EU was carried out up to 2018, [6], [7],
[8]. This study expands the assessment of RESs up
to 2021 and considers the new renewable energy
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directive EU/2023/2413 the revised renewable
target in 2030. Compared to previous research [5],
this study also includes regression analysis for RESs
versus air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions.
The obtained results indicate that achieving the
revised renewable target (42.5%) in 2030 seems to
be unrealistic, considering the current increase of
RESs in the EU. The obtained results are similar to
the results presented in, [25]. There should be
enormous expenditures on investments of RESs to
create an exponential growth of renewable energy
and to reach this target in 2030. Moreover, the
verified hypotheses indicate a significant
relationship between increasing RESs and
decreasing air pollutants and greenhouse gas
emissions (apart from ammonia). Further research
can refer to the impact of RESs on the level of
sustainable development and economic growth from
the perspective of the location of an EU country. For
example, Mediterranean countries have better
conditions for producing solar energy than Northern
European countries.
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Contribution of Individual Authors to the
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stages from the formulation of the problem to the
final findings and solution.
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Scientific Article or Scientific Article Itself
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Conflict of Interest
The author has no conflicts of interest to declare that
is relevant to the content of this article.
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