Investing in Green Energy:
Profitability Analysis of Solar Energy for Household Consumption in
Albania
MARIOLA KAPIDANI, ENI NUMANI
Department of Finance, Faculty of Economy,
University of Tirana,
Street “Arben Broci’, Tirana,
ALBANIA
Abstract: - Exhaustion of conventional non-renewable energy sources together with climate change mitigation
presents challenges for policy makers globally. An alternative to address the increased demand for energy with
less negative impacts on the environment is using renewable energy sources whose reserves are supplemented
by natural ecosystems. Furthermore, EU directives impose actions on Member States for the reduction of
pollution from conventional sources. Countries must aim to increase the share of renewable energy sources in
energy consumption, as significant measures towards sustainable development. However, several factors affect
the succession of green energy adoption, where financial considerations remain key determinants in decision-
making by companies, families, and institutions. The study conducts a cost-benefit analysis using methods of
capital budgeting to evaluate the profitability of solar energy for household consumption in Albania. The paper
aims to provide insights into the potential of green energy investment in Albania, focusing on the solar energy
sector and financial factors that are relevant to these investments’ succession. Data analysis and forecasting are
conducted for a lifespan of 30 years, assessing average data of electricity prices, the productivity of solar
panels, direct costs of investment, interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation rates. The study concludes that
investing in solar panels for household consumption in Albania is profitable, as it is reported that discounted
benefits exceed the investment cost.
Key-Words: - green energy, solar energy, solar panels, sustainable energy sources, profitability, cost-benefit
analysis.
Received: June 19, 2023. Revised: October 21, 2023. Accepted: November 23, 2023. Available online: December 15, 2023.
1 Introduction
The demographic changes that have occurred in
recent years, associated with the increase in
population concentration in urban centers but also
with the increase in energy consumption as a result
of the higher use of electric equipment, highlight the
need to address alternative sources of energy
production. Albania, with a population of about 2.85
million inhabitants, uses hydropower as the main
source of electricity supply, thus being ranked
among the countries with abundant sources of
renewable energy, [1]. The use of hydropower
offers an advantage in reducing CO2 in the energy
sector; however, it makes the country highly
dependent and sensitive to climate change. Another
indicator is the fluctuation in the level of energy
production from hydropower plants, which is related
to the level of rainfall in the country. This leads to
an increase in the import of electricity, also reflected
in the financial cost of the sector. According to
official statistics, the residential building sector in
Albania constitutes almost 54% of the total
electricity consumption, increasing the cost of
electricity supply mainly due to an augmentation in
imports in the winter season. Thus, the need for a
higher diversification of renewable energy sources
produced in the country should be taken into
consideration, aiming to use not only cost-effective
technologies but with the primary focus on
mitigating the long-term effects on the country's
environmental parameters, [2].
Regarding the developments in the region, the
energy transition to sustainable energy sources is
gradually taking place in Southeast Europe, even
though not all the countries are actively taking
significant incentives, [1], [3]. The region
traditionally uses older technology, predominantly
by highly polluting power plants that should be
immediately transitioned to renewable technologies
within the parameters to reduce emissions.
Moreover, the countries in the region that are part of
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Mariola Kapidani, Eni Numani
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the EU have committed under the Paris Agreement,
to stop using fossil fuels by 2050. These measures
include coal which must be replaced earlier as an
energy source, but also oil and gas reduction. In the
coming years, it is expected to include all the
Western Balkan countries in this agreement, as
important measures of sustainable development
goals, aiming the reduction of environmental effects
of the energy sector, [3].
Currently, several measures have been taken in
Albania, both by private entities and by public
institutions responsible for incentivizing the use of
solar energy, as a criterion to lower the financial
costs of energy but also as a form of increasing
energy sustainability. Mainly, there is an increase in
adopting solar energy, especially for water heating
by family consumers, companies, and to a lesser
extent public institutions. However, the initial
financial costs of investing in solar panels,
installation, and maintenance, are determining
factors in whether consumers are encouraged to
"transition" to green energy by different entities, [4].
Effective energy generation, transmission, and
expanded use are critical to the country’s overall
development agenda. Albania is expected to
advance its energy-generating capabilities,
especially focusing on developing hydropower and
renewable energies, [2], [4]. The country’s clean
energy sector offers many benefits in relation to
hydropower and solar energy.
This paper aims to address the recent
developments in the renewable energy sector in
Albania, focusing on the potential of solar energy
profitability for household consumers. Quantitative
data analysis is conducted using methods of capital
budgeting to assess the profitability of solar panels,
taking into consideration the different cost aspects
of the sector. The study evaluates the expected
values of electricity prices for 30 years and assesses
the outputs of the solar panels in financial terms for
the given interval. The study aims to contribute to
the current literature on solar energy profitability, by
providing evidence from the case of Albania
regarding the use of solar energy in household
consumption through capital budgeting analysis by
using: NPV, IRR, and Payback period.
2 Overview of Albania’s Renewable
Energy Sector
Albania uses different resources of energy varying
from the most traditional ones such as oil and gas,
hydropower, natural forest biomass, coal, and other
renewable energy sources. The largest share of the
total energy supply in Albania is attributed to oil
(64%), followed by hydropower (22%) and
fuelwood (12%), according to World Bank data.
Sectors such as: transportation, household, and
industry consume the highest amounts of energy,
respectively at 44%, 23%, and 13%. However, the
primary source of electricity generation from
renewable sources is hydropower, constituting 95%
of the country’s installed capacity with a total of
2096 MW installed, [4]. According to EUROSTAT
statistics, [5], the energy share in Albania from
renewable energy sources reached 45,01% of the
total energy consumption in 2020, exceeding the
target of 38%. The significant increase, is among
other factors, attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic
which led to a considerable shortage in energy
consumption, mainly evident in the transport sector.
The share of energy from renewable sources in
Albania, 2010-2020 is presented in Figure 1.
Fig. 1: Share of energy from renewable sources in
Albania, 2010-2020.
Source: EUROSTAT 2022; Energy Community
Secretariat, [5], [6].
In recent years, Albania has shifted its energy
efficiency policy as part of the country’s strategy to
boost investments in green energy sources and
prioritize such resource usage, [6]. However, these
incentives should be strengthened by adapting fiscal
policies, and support plans and by enhancing the
framework of the sector regulations. The energy
sector in Albania is also vulnerable to a high
dependency on hydroelectricity and despite the
country’s vast water resources, hydropower
potential is achieved at a moderate level of 35%,
[7]. According to the study by the World Bank, this
context of hydropower deployment is explained in
part due to the limited financial viability and limited
cost-recovery schemes currently in place,
accounting for the low level of investment into the
sector.
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Taking into consideration the climate conditions
of Albania, it presents a considerable potential for
producing renewable energy and more specifically
solar energy. Solar insolation in Albania is very
high with more than 1500 kWh/m2 annually
throughout the territory of the country, with peaks
of 1753 kWh/m2 annually, where the western part
of the country dominates in terms of solar radiation,
[4]. Compared to other European countries, Albania
is listed among the countries with the highest
number of sunshine hours per year, presenting
adequate conditions for the development of solar
photovoltaic projects for power generation and solar
thermal for heating purposes. The installed solar
energy capacity, calculated as cumulative installed
solar capacity measured in gigawatts (GW), has
increased significantly after 2018, as is shown
below in Figure 2. These developments are also
affected by the global energy crisis that imposed
higher tariffs on electricity and a general increase in
the cost of energy sources, shifting the interest to
alternative sources of energy less dependent on
international markets, and more cost-effective.
Fig. 2: Installed solar energy capacity in Albania,
2001-2022.
Source: International Renewable Energy Agency
(IRENA), [4], [8].
During the year 2023, the Albanian government
applied a scheme to promote the use of solar panels
for heating water by family customers, which aims
to subsidize 70% of the cost from the Energy
Efficiency Agency. This measure aims to: reduce
electricity consumption and improve the supply of
hot sanitary water; as well as the reduction of CO2
emissions in the environment. Even though in the
last 5 years in Albania there has been a significant
increase in investments in solar energy, assessment
of availability and economic potential of the sector
is very limited in studies. In this context, it presents
obstacles in policy development by the
corresponding institutions in setting achievable
targets for the sector.
3 Literature Review
For many years, studies have addressed energy
contributions to a sustainable economy, stating that
shifting from traditional energy sources to solar
energy systems is crucial to obtain cumulative
effects on the environment. The advantages of using
green energy sources rely on cost-effective
technologies provided, and in building a more
climate-resilient energy system through
diversification of energy sources, [4]. The self-
consumption of energy through solar panels for the
household and residential sector is an important step
to reduce the electricity financial cost and
greenhouse gas emissions, [9], [10]. Solar energy
provides relevant benefits to the environment, but
the adoption of solar energy by the industrial,
commercial, and household sectors is highly
dependent on economic factors, [11], [12]. The
presence of challenges in solar energy generation
projects includes factors such as high initial
investment costs and moderate support by public
institutions, [13].
The measurement of economic profitability is
complex because it involves the study of intricate
networks of variables involving technical aspects,
accounting indicators, prediction of financial data,
and assumptions on financing decisions, [14]. The
study of decision-aiding tools to measure investment
profitability is significantly important, considering
uncertainty and it aims to provide evidence on
relevant factors that may affect the decision to use
solar energy. Different models are presented by
authors of the field, analyzing in both absolute and
relative terms the sources of value creation.
Methods used by different authors include the net
present value (NPV), the rate of return, and the
financial efficiency, focusing on overcoming the
limitations of the internal rate of return (IRR),
which is generally used in benefit-cost analysis,
[15].
According to IEA’s study of 2022 (International
Energy Agency), solar industry profitability in the
past decade is reported to be volatile, showing lower
average profit margins than the oil, coal, chemical,
and semiconductor industries, [16]. For the
European Union countries, a lack of specialization
in the solar industry across the supply chain is
evident, affecting the sector costs as well, [17].
However, several studies prove through sensitivity
analysis that solar systems with energy storage
result in being profitable for all household types,
[18], [19].
The methodological approach takes into account
the influence of the electricity cost and the discount
rate, applying separate analyses for the different
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types of systems such as photovoltaic solar panels or
solar water heaters. A rising electricity price is
expected to positively affect the investment in a
photovoltaic solar system by making solar energy
sources more attractive, [20]. The rentability of
solar energy systems is affected by technological,
political, and geographical aspects, [21].
Different results might be found when taking
into consideration the study of the firm profitability
compared to family consumers of solar energy
systems, but especially when comparing
implementation in different locations affected by
specific weather conditions, subsidies policies, and
efficiency factors, [22]. Overall, the results of
several studies suggest the need for support
programs to facilitate the financing of renewable
energy sources, as important incentives that
influence investment decision-making. In this
context, cooperation between the institutional
stakeholders, financial institutions, and market
mechanisms is essential for the significant
development of the solar energy sector, [23].
4 Methodology
In this section, an analysis of the profitability of
solar panels as a source of energy for household
customers is carried out. To assess the profitability
of the investment, three assessment methods have
been used:
(i) net present value,
(ii) internal rate of return, and
(iii) payback period.
The net present value (NPV) is the difference
between the present value of cash inflows and
outflows. Cash inflows are the annual savings of
household consumers from the use of solar panels
compared to traditional energy, while cash outflow
is the initial investment necessary for the purchase
and use of solar panels. The investment will be
considered profitable if the net present value is
positive.
NPV is calculated:
Where:
CFt - the cash outflow or inflow of the investment
project during its duration
i – the discount rate
t – the duration of the solar panel investment
In our analysis, cash outflow refers to the initial
investment for purchasing and installing the solar
panels. This cost is calculated based on the number
of solar panels needed by a family based on data for
the average annual consumption in the last three
years in Albania and the market price of solar panels
sold in national markets. Data is retrieved from the
dataset of the Energy Regulator Authority for the
annual consumption of household tariff customers
for the period 2020 - 2022.
Cash inflows represent the future savings from
using solar panels instead of traditional electricity
sources. The average annual consumption for the
last three years in kwh is converted into monetary
value using the price per kWh of electricity
consumption in the Republic of Albania, which is
11.4 ALL per kwh (including VAT) for household
tariff customers, [24]. For the upcoming years, the
market price of electricity is indexed to the annual
inflation rate to determine the expected price of
electricity to be paid by household tariff customers.
The analysis is carried out for 30 years which is
the average expected lifespan of solar panels. The
discount rate used is the annual interest rate of the
loan with maturity equal to the average lifespan of
the solar panels (30 years).
The internal rate of return is the rate of return
realized by the investment, where the present value
of cash inflows is equal to the present value of cash
outflows. So, NPV = 0. According to this method,
the investment will be considered profitable if the
internal rate of return is higher than the interest rate
of the loan with a maturity of 30 years.
The analysis based on this method is derived
from the NPV.
The payback period shows the time it takes on
average for a household consumer to repay the
initial investment made for the purchase of solar
panels. According to this method, the investment
will be considered profitable if the initial investment
can be repaid before the maturity of the investment
in solar panels. Since this method does not consider
the time value of money, the discounted payback
period is calculated for a better analysis.
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Year
Expected inflation
Average annual electricity consumption (ALL)
Base year 2023
29,902
2024
3.37%
30,910
2025
3.02%
31,843
2026
3.02%
32,805
2027
3.02%
33,796
2028
3.02%
34,816
2029
3%
35,861
2030
3%
36,936
2031
3%
38,045
2032
3%
39,186
2033
3%
40,361
2034
3%
41,572
2035
3%
42,819
2036
3%
44,104
2037
3%
45,427
2038
3%
46,790
2039
3%
48,194
2040
3%
49,640
2041
3%
51,129
2042
3%
52,663
2043
3%
54,242
2044
3%
55,870
2045
3%
57,546
2046
3%
59,272
2047
3%
61,050
2048
3%
62,882
2049
3%
64,768
2050
3%
66,711
2051
3%
68,713
2052
3%
70,774
2053
3%
72,897
Year
Initial investment
Annual savings
Discounted savings
Cumulative NPV
2023
(427,480)
(427,480)
2024
30,910
29,160.1
(398,319.9)
2025
31,843
28,340.3
(369,979.6)
2026
32,805
27,543.6
(342,436.0)
2027
33,796
26,769.2
(315,666.8)
2028
34,816
26,016.7
(289,650.1)
2029
35,861
25,280.3
(264,369.8)
2030
36,936
24,564.9
(239,804.9)
2031
38,045
23,869.6
(215,935.3)
2032
39,186
23,194.1
(192,741.2)
2033
40,361
22,537.6
(170,203.6)
2034
41,572
21,899.8
(148,303.8)
2035
42,819
21,280.0
(127,023.8)
2036
44,104
20,677.7
(106,346.1)
2037
45,427
20,092.5
(86,253.6)
2038
46,790
19,523.8
(66,729.8)
2039
48,194
18,971.3
(47,758.5)
2040
49,640
18,434.4
(29,324.2)
2041
51,129
17,912.6
(11,411.5)
2042
52,663
17,405.7
5,994.1
2043
54,242
16,913.1
22,907.2
2044
55,870
16,434.4
39,341.6
2045
57,546
15,969.3
55,310.8
2046
59,272
15,517.3
70,828.1
2047
61,050
15,078.1
85,906.3
2048
62,882
14,651.4
100,557.6
2049
64,768
14,236.7
114,794.4
2050
66,711
13,833.8
128,628.2
2051
68,713
13,442.3
142,070.5
2052
70,774
13,061.8
155,132.3
2053
72,897
12,692.2
167,824.5
Value
(427,480)
595,304.5
NPV = 167,824.5 ALL
2020
2021
2022
Average
Total use by household customers
(Mwh)
2,956,703
3,081,617
3,074,801
Number of household customers
1,100,331
1,279,460
1,109,124
Average annual use by household
customers (Kwh)
2,687
2,409
2,772
2,623
5 Assessment of the Profitability of
Solar Panels
The following table (Table 1) provides data to
estimate the average annual use of electricity by
household consumers for the last three years.
Table 1. Electricity is used by household customers
Source: Energy Regulator Authority, Annual reports:
2020, 2021, 2022, [24], [25], [26].
Referring to these data, the average annual use
of electricity by a family during the last three years
is 2,623 kWh. Using the current price of electricity
for household customers, the average annual
expense of a family in our country is: 2,623
kwh/year * 11.4 ALL/kwh = 29,902 ALL/year.
Regarding the inflation in Albania, it is
expected to be 3.37% in 2024 and 3.02% for the
following years until 2028, [27]. For the period after
2028, the 3% targeted inflation rate set by the
Central Bank of Albania was used as the expected
inflation rate. Table 2 shows the average annual
electricity consumption by household customers
which is indexed with the expected inflation rate for
the next 30 years.
Regarding the energy produced by a solar panel,
it is known that a panel system with a power of 1
kWh produces an average of 750 - 850 kWh of
electricity in a year, [28]. To meet the average
demand of a family in our country, a total power
capacity of 3.08 - 3.5 kWh would be needed. The
average price of purchasing and installing solar
panels with a power of 1 kWh according to the
market value in Albania is currently 1,000 euros.
Consequently, to meet the annual electricity needs a
family should buy 4 solar panels with a power of 1
kWh and invest/spend 4,000 euros initially. The
assessment of the profitability of using solar panels
as an energy source is done using the average
interest rate for a 30-year maturity loan, which is
about 6%, [29].
Table 2. Average annual electricity expenditure
indexed with inflation, years 2023-2053
Source: Authors calculations
5.1 Calculation of NPV, IRR, and Payback
Period
The following table (Table 3) provides inputs for
calculating the profitability indicators of solar
panels.
Table 3. NPV of using 4 kWh solar panels.
Source: Authors calculations
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For the calculation of the initial investment in
ALL (Albanian Lek), it was used the official
exchange rate of the euro published by the Bank of
Albania on the date of calculations (September 11,
2023).
The first method used is the net present value,
which is calculated as the difference between the
present value of inflows and outflows. After
discounting the cash flows at the rate of 6%, the
NPV of the investment in solar panels results
positive (167,824.5 ALL), which shows that such an
investment is profitable.
Another method for assessing the profitability
of an investment is the IRR (Internal Rate of
Return). Mathematically, IRR is the interest rate that
equals the present value of cash inflows with the
present value of cash outflows. The calculations
performed show that the internal rate of return is
8.86%, which is greater than the interest rate of the
loan with a maturity of 30 years. Consequently, this
method leads to the same conclusion as in the case
of the NPV method.
The payback period, although less frequently
used, is another method applied to determine
whether an investment is profitable or not. The
calculations show that the repayment period of this
investment is 11.73 years. Since this method does
not consider the time value of money, which is the
main disadvantage, the above table provides data for
the calculation of the discounted payback period.
Considering the latter, the investment in solar panels
has a payback period of 18.65 years, which means
that the investment is paid off during the period of
their use.
The results of the four methods are summarized
in Table 4 below:
Table 4. Summary of results
Method
Result
Investment decision
NPV
167,824.5 ALL
Profitable
IRR
8.86%
Profitable
Payback
11.73 years
Profitable
Discounted payback
18.65 years
Profitable
Source: Authors calculations
Based on the above cost–benefit analysis, we
can conclude that investing in solar panels is
profitable because the discounted benefits exceed
the investment cost.
6 Conclusion and Recommendation
Climate change mitigation, the increased cost of
traditional energy sources, and fluctuation in
electricity production by hydropower sources are
some of the factors that motivate a shift towards
alternative green energy sources. In this context,
Albania has undertaken significant steps in adapting
to solar energy production in the country, although
it has not reached its full potential.
This study analyses the financial profitability of
solar panels for household consumption in Albania,
providing quantitative evidence regarding the costs
and benefits of solar energy. The study results show
that solar energy investment for household energy
consumption in Albania is profitable. The
discounted cash flows take into consideration
forecasting based on the inflation rate, interest rate,
exchange rate, and electricity expenditures. The net
present value method assessment shows that
discounted benefits are higher than investment
costs, resulting in a positive NPV. According to the
internal rate of return analysis, IRR is equal to
8.86% exceeding the cost of financing the solar
panels. The payback method leads to the same
conclusion as in the case of the two other methods,
supporting the argument of profitability in solar
power usage with an investment repayment of 18.65
years. However, further steps should be taken to
fasten the incentives toward solar energy in Albania,
not only for the household sector but also for the
private sector and public institutions.
Some of the considerations should be in the
direction of aligning the national legislation and
secondary legislation supporting the solar power
sector framework. On the other hand, permitting
procedures should be simplified to facilitate
incentives for investment in solar energy. Another
aspect is supporting the private sector in accessing
financing, where public institutions can be an
important mechanism to ensure adequate policies,
and advise project documentation, contracting, and
consolidating procedures. The banking sector in
Albania is an important financial source to support
solar energy investments, especially in the case of
household consumers. This sector could design
specific financial products to support these
investments, incorporated under existing products
such as loans for housing, etc. Another important
factor that should be taken into consideration is the
human resources adequately skilled with
technological insight. Education institutions and
training centers should adapt their curricula in pace
with the new technology trends and market
dynamics to respond to the technological
advancement of the renewable energy sector.
Cooperation between the institutional stakeholders
is imperative to formulate strategies and awareness
campaigns to sensitize the public on the deployment
of green energies and their benefits.
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6.1 Limitations of the Study
The study focuses on evaluating the profitability of
solar energy based on secondary data for the
household sector in Albania. Future studies should
address additional factors that contribute to the
topic, gathering primary data through
questionnaires. Other aspects to consider in future
studies include geographical differences, risk
indicators, technological factors, efficiency,
government subsidies, etc. Considerations for the
future should also be in studying the differences in
profitability of photovoltaic solar systems when
compared to solar water-heating systems.
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Contribution of Individual Authors to the
Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting
Policy)
- Mariola Kapidani has worked on the theoretical
background and literature review of the paper and
the overview of the sector developments.
- Eni Numani conducted the quantitative data
analysis and forecasting of the variables, by
developing the methodology of the study.
Sources of Funding for Research Presented in a
Scientific Article or Scientific Article Itself
This publication is made possible with the financial
support of AKKSHI. Its content is the responsibility
of the authors, the opinion expressed in the paper is
not necessarily the opinion of AKKSHI.
Conflict of Interest
The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
(Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0)
This article is published under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
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WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2024.21.30
Mariola Kapidani, Eni Numani
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
352
Volume 21, 2024