Destabilization of the Financial Market of Ukraine in the Conditions of

Martial Law: Prejudice of Processes

IRTYSHCHEVA INNA1, STEHNEI MARIANNA2, KRAMARENKO IRYNA1,

LIASHENKO OLEKSANDRA3, MYKHALCHYNETS HALYNA2,

MYKHALCHYNETS NATALIIA2

1Department of Management,

Admiral Makarov National University of Shipbuilding,

Heroes of Ukraine Prospect, 9 Mykolaiv, 54000,

UKRAINE

2Department of Еconomics and Finance,

Mukachevo State University,

str. Uzhgorodskaya, 26, Mukachevo, 89600,

UKRAINE

3Ukrainian Catholic University,

Sventsitsky str., 17 Lviv city, 79011,

UKRAINE

Abstract: - The purpose of the article is to form the process of biasing the destabilization of Ukraine's financial

market in martial law conditions. Based on the research results, strategic maps of the effectiveness of the

financial market of Ukraine were developed. It was established that the step-by-step descriptive-numerical

presentation of data in dynamic programming models allows for determining adequate measures that must be

implemented to achieve the target effectiveness. Therefore, the content of the strategic performance maps of the

financial market of Ukraine should be aimed at determining the measures that will ensure the achievement of

the priority structure of the distribution of funds by operations, provided that it will also contribute to the

implementation of the strategy for the development of the financial sector of Ukraine until 2025.

It was determined that the strategic map provides a transformation of information about the structure and

development trends of the financial market into team information focused on the production of effects. The

developed set of dynamic performance models is focused on visualizing the processes of formation and

redistribution of free financial resources and the growth of benefits for key financial market operations. It is

illustrated that the outlined complex of dynamic models, based on the connection with stochastic models,

ensures the scientific validity of the developed strategic measures, with the help of which it is possible to

exceed the increase in benefits achieved in 2021 by the end of 2024. Such models determine adequate

measures, such as sets of actions, that should be used to achieve the target performance, which in 2022

amounted to UAH 427,895.7 million. (which is 6.7% lower than the value of 2021), and in 2024 – UAH

575,549.75 million (which is 25% higher than the value of 2021).

Key-Words: - financial market, destabilization, prejudice processes, lending, deposits, martial law.

Received: May 8, 2023. Revised: November 19, 2023. Accepted: December 2, 2023. Published: December 15, 2023.

1 Introduction

The problems of destabilization of the financial

market are due to the large-scale invasion of the

Russian Federation into Ukraine, as a result of which

the resulting inflow (yield) of all types of operations

has decreased. However, with timely actions to

prevent destabilization processes by the end of 2024,

it is expected that the financial market's performance

will exceed the value of 2021. Prevention of

destabilization processes is possible with the help of

complex strategic measures (given within the

framework of the system of strategic maps), which

will mathematically outline the sets of actions from

the transition to the practical structure of the markets

(by actions to redistribute free financial resources by

sectors of the financial market within which the

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DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.233

Irtyshcheva Inna, Stehnei Marianna,

Kramarenko Iryna, Liashenko Oleksandra,

Mykhalchynets Halyna, Mykhalchynets Nataliia

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absorption or absorption of destabilization processes

was ensured). The development of sound strategic

maps of the effectiveness of the financial market of

Ukraine should be based on dynamic models formed

based on a step-by-step descriptive-numerical

representation of the processes of formation and

redistribution of free financial resources and the

increase in benefits for critical operations of the

financial market to the Bellman function (by sector).

At the same time, to achieve the maximum

illustrativeness of the data: the numerical component

of the strategic maps must contain information

regarding actual data regarding the movement of

financial resources and target guidelines regarding

the inflow of benefits by market capacity (or

volumes of critical transactions that determine the

performance of the financial market by its sectors)

and by its performance (which is determined by the

descriptive component of strategic maps, determined

by dynamic models of performance). This

presentation of data makes it possible to determine

adequate measures to be taken by the NBU, the

National Securities and Stock Market Commission,

the MFU, and the Individual Deposit Guarantee

Fund to achieve the target performance by 2024, the

total capacity of the market (by its sectors) and its

performance (by critical operations) determine the

strategic values of strategic maps (according to

stochastic performance models), but only on the

condition that they contribute to the implementation

of the Financial Sector Development Strategy of

Ukraine until 2025, [1]. The deterioration of the

structure of the financial market under martial law

reflects official statistical information, [2].

Globalization factors affect the processes of

destabilization of the financial market of Ukraine.

The team of authors emphasizes that globalization

processes affect the state of the national economy,

including the financial market, [3].

The purpose of the article is to investigate the

process of destabilization of the financial market of

Ukraine under martial law and to identify ways of

bias.

2 Methodology

Efficiency is an integral value that varies over time

due to the formation and redistribution of free

financial resources (in the form of an inflow of

benefits). However, based on the state of the

combinatorial structure of the financial market and

its changes, it is possible to identify the nature of

destabilizing processes and determine the directions

of their bias. According to the available complex of

dynamic models (Table 1 (Appendix), Table 2

(Appendix)), due to the descriptive-numerical

representation of operations as flows of financial

resources in dynamics, such performance can be

estimated by the resulting inflow for 2022-2024.

3 The Results

According to the results of the visualization of the

scheme of movements of financial resources by

financial market sectors, it is possible to focus on the

following values of their growth (Table 3,

Appendix) in 2022: UAH 427,895.7 million. (which

is 6.7% lower than the value of 2021), and in 2024 –

UAH 575,549.75 million. (which is 25% higher than

the value of 2021). At the same time, significantly

lower expected values regarding the effectiveness of

the financial market of Ukraine in 2022 or the

resulting inflow of income from the movement of

financial resources (compared to the values of 2021)

are obvious, which allow us to make assumptions

about the possibility of destabilizing processes in the

formation and redistribution of free financial

resources. resources.

Price guidelines for the volumes of key

transactions have been determined by us, focusing

on the range of values set in the forecasts based on

the average value. coefficient increase/decrease and

adjusted forecast taking into account the reactivity of

the environment (since the action of influencing

factors must be taken into account). At the same

time, the values are adjusted, taking into account

that the target values directly depend not only on the

trends and influencing factors, but also on the

strategic actions that the NBU, the National

Securities and Stock Market Commission, the IFI,

and other authorities plan to take to achieve such

goals. Let's consider the specifics of the result of

measuring the performance of the financial market

according to these components presented in the table

and the content of strategic maps that determine

adequate actions for the transition from actual

performance to target performance due to the

selection of measures that are the most effective

(taking into account that it is important to achieve

not only the target capacity the market or the

maximum in terms of the formation of effects

because in the complex these components provide

the greatest effectiveness).

Such targets are important for the foreign

exchange market, which according to the structure

and volumes of key operations allow to ensure the

declared capacity of the foreign exchange market.

Currently, this capacity is established based on the

average values in forecasts for the average.

coefficient growth/decrease and adjusted for

environmental reactivity, as the priority is to

minimize the negative impact of factors such as the

inflation index; money transfers to Ukraine from

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DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.233

Irtyshcheva Inna, Stehnei Marianna,

Kramarenko Iryna, Liashenko Oleksandra,

Mykhalchynets Halyna, Mykhalchynets Nataliia

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abroad; the total assets of banks in foreign currency

(in particular, the temporary impact of hostilities and

their consequences on the performance indicators of

banks should not lead to recognition of the most

affected of them as insolvent) to prevent the

processes of destabilization of the financial market.

These are strategic measures that can support or

increase the capacity of the foreign exchange

market. However, to determine actual measures to

increase profits for key operations, the basic element

of the strategic map is the reproduction of the

process of changes in performance from the rotation

of specific currencies according to current/possible

options for investments, since these processes

directly affect the performance of the foreign

exchange market. As a result of the combination of

market capacity with options for effective

investments, a dynamic model of the effectiveness

of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine was

formed (Table 1, Appendix), based on the content of

which the content of the strategic performance map

for 2022-2024 was determined (Table 4, Appendix).

The content of the strategic map allows us to state

that, taking into account the reaction of the internal

environment, to ensure the target capacity of the

foreign exchange market (which has a specific

expression in terms of volume and structure), it is

necessary to implement supporting strategic actions.

By 2024, the target capacity of the foreign exchange

market is set at the level of UAH 327,304.9 million.

by purchase and at the level of UAH 328,254.4

million. for sale For 2021-2024, a gradual transition

to the following structure of operations with IP on

the foreign exchange market is structurally required:

anonymous cash transactions of clients of non-

banking institutions with IP, exchange between

private individuals (hereinafter AO) - a decrease in

the share from 26% to 16.9%; transactions of bank

customers with non-cash IP - support at the level of

37% (in connection with the war threat in Ukraine,

cash exchange through bank cash desks will be in

demand in the future by customers who are used to

operating in cash currency); operations of banks,

non-banking institutions with cash IP - increase in

share from 6.6% to 13.1%; transactions of bank

clients with non-cash foreign currency – share

change from 30.2 to 33%. To achieve the outlined

characteristics of the market, the authorities must

provide: protection of the interests of bank clients (at

the expense of their guaranteed access to own/credit

funds, payments, and transfers); further currency

liberalization (to reduce the share of anonymous

cash transactions with IP, volumes of exchange

between private individuals); maintenance of banks'

activities and their liquidity (maintenance of banks'

liquidity through refinancing instruments); honest

reflection of the real financial condition of banks.

Based on these strategic principles, the NBU defines

a list of operational measures to support the banking

system. For example: 1) in connection with the

introduction of martial law in Ukraine on February

24, 2022 (for 30 days with gradual relaxation) and a

temporary restriction on the purchase of IP at an

interbank or its issuance at the bank's cash desk

during 2022 (with their relaxation from March 8,

2022); 2) refinancing of banks on "overnight" terms

with collateral of highly liquid assets, in particular

government securities, etc. Banks should carry out a

number of the following operational actions:

reduction of fees for services (in particular, to pay

for goods and services without hindrance); carrying

out cash and non-cash monetary transactions (in

particular: carrying out non-cash purchase and sale

of foreign currency in self-service terminals, in

Internet banking, in cash registers; issuing cards to

foreign currency accounts, for direct settlements,

making deposits or withdrawing cash in foreign

currency). Taking into account the above-mentioned

features of maintaining the capacity of the foreign

exchange market, the strategic map is focused on

measures to stabilize and support the functionality of

its internal environment for bank transactions with

foreign currency (further - foreign currency), the

features of which are complemented by a descriptive

and numerical presentation of data on foreign

currency purchase and sale transactions (Table 2,

Appendix), [4].

Descriptive and numerical presentation of data on

the purchase and sale of IP on the foreign exchange

market of Ukraine for 2022-2024, UAH million,

formed taking into account the target market

capacity for each of the transactions on the foreign

exchange market of Ukraine and the maximum

possible income for each type of transaction, which

are determined by the average values of the spread.

The spread is determined separately between the

buying and selling rates of foreign currency, banking

metals, and investment coins. Variants of

fluctuations of the spread between the best prices of

purchase and sale of currencies are determined

according to the projected field of its action in the

currencies of PLN, USD, CHF, EUR, GBP, and

CAD. For other currencies, such forecasting is not

carried out due to the lack of data, [5]. The

significance of data presentation is determined by

the possibilities of forecasting changes in

performance, taking into account the target state of

transactions on the foreign exchange market of

Ukraine. The description can be clarified by

modeling the target conditions for the distribution of

funds in the foreign exchange market because they

determine the direction and content of achieving the

highest effectiveness of such operations (Table 1,

Appendix). In particular, according to the target

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DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.233

Irtyshcheva Inna, Stehnei Marianna,

Kramarenko Iryna, Liashenko Oleksandra,

Mykhalchynets Halyna, Mykhalchynets Nataliia

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conditions for the distribution of funds, it is obvious

that in the content of the strategic maps of financial

market performance, only such a foreign exchange

market of Ukraine can be developed, which will

continue to operate in basic foreign currencies,

including the US dollar and the euro.

With regard to the deposit market, target

orientations are needed, which, based on the

structure and volume of key operations, are most

favorable for the formation of the resource base of

banks (which forms the capacity of the deposit

market) and ensuring the maximum effectiveness of

the deposit market. The outlined target orientation is

part of the strategy for the development of the

financial sector of Ukraine until 2025, within which

a course is taken to create the conditions most

favorable for expanding the resource base of deposit

corporations and increasing the effects dictated by it,

at the expense of its price reduction (the expectation

is because interest rates on term deposits were

historically the lowest in hryvnia and foreign

currency, [1]. In connection with the beginning of

the Russian-Ukrainian war, the "pandemic" attitudes

of depositors formed by it, and the existing

specificity of the reaction of the domestic

environment, it is difficult to realize the cheapening

of the resource base. The priority is to minimize the

decrease in balances on deposit accounts in national

and foreign currencies. Therefore, target benchmarks

have been established that allow to preserve the

resource base of banks as much as possible (which

forms the capacity of the deposit market) and ways

of forming effects from the functioning of the

deposit market (based on the results of the

reproduction of the process of changes in the

specifics of the circulation of the funds involved in

terms of types of deposits without a focus on price

reduction). Target specifics determine the formation

of a strategic map of the performance of the deposit

market, which is set out in Table 5 (Appendix).

According to the aggregate content of the strategic

performance map, to ensure the target capacity of

the deposit market (which has a specific expression

in terms of volume and structure), it is necessary to

implement supporting strategic actions. Until 2024,

the target capacity of the deposit market is set at the

level of UAH 1840697.5 million. To achieve the

outlined characteristics of the market, the authorities

should take measures to improve the deposit

guarantee system and remove insolvent financial

institutions from the market, [6], [7].

Deposit corporations should implement the

following actions: 1) gradual increase in deposit

rates; 2) convenience, innovative (availability of

non-cash transactions) and reliable bank services

(this is important for those customers for whom the

ability to instantly transfer funds from card to card,

choosing the best service, remains a priority).

4 Problem Solution

The full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation

into Ukraine intensified the processes of

destabilization of the financial market. Freezing of

lending, withdrawal of deposits, and withdrawal of

funds from accounts, capital outflow increased the

destabilization of the financial market, [8].

The measures of deposit corporations should be

focused on preserving their resource base, however,

taking into account the efficiency of the processes of

circulation of the funds involved in terms of types of

deposits aimed at forming the resource base of banks

(on demand; up to the 1st year; from the 1st to the

2nd year; from 2 years old). Determining the

efficiency of the processes of circulation of the

funds involved, implemented within the scope of the

descriptive-numerical presentation of data, is

focused on the target state of fund-raising operations

in the deposit market of Ukraine. The desire to

maximize the effects requires sorting out the

following target structure of the internal

environment of the deposit market for 2022-2024:

on demand - reducing the share from 67.08% in

2021 to 1.45% in 2024; by 1 year – increase in share

from 23.2% in 2021 to 65.8% in 2024; from 1 to 2

years – a slight change in the share to 8.6 to 2.1%;

from 2 years, the share will increase from 1.2% in

2021 to 30.7% in 2024. In particular, a gradual

transition to the structure of operations is needed,

which will allow for attracting more time and funds

(hereinafter SC), [9], [10]. It is obvious that the

formation of a descriptive-numerical representation

of data on deposit operations, integrated into a

strategic map of its effectiveness, allows you to

determine the resulting inflow from the attraction of

each type of deposit because a deposit is not only the

acceptance of funds from depositors but also the

income from the use of such funds, interpreted as the

average income of banks from the use of such funds

in the areas of accounting and credit operations;

investment operations with securities. It is assumed

that to preserve their resource base, deposit

corporations should attract funds in the areas of

greatest effectiveness, which are identified taking

into account the fact that for stable financing they

should have more term funds. This directly affects

the terms of distribution of funds on the deposit

market.

It should be noted that globalization processes

also affected the structure of the financial market,

[11]. According to the data of the National Bank of

Ukraine, the demand for cashless payments is

growing in wartime conditions, [12]. The role of

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Irtyshcheva Inna, Stehnei Marianna,

Kramarenko Iryna, Liashenko Oleksandra,

Mykhalchynets Halyna, Mykhalchynets Nataliia

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digital money is not appreciated by Ukrainian

society today, but it is developing rapidly in

Ukraine, [13]. In the conditions of war and processes

of globalization, the use of modeling to determine

the perspective of the future behavior of the model

remains relevant, [14].

According to the strategy for the development of

the financial sector of Ukraine until 2025 and trends

in the development of lending, the formation of

conditions that would contribute to the significant

development of the credit market was not expected.

The outline was due to expectations regarding the

introduction of new quarantine restrictions and the

beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which in

the complex should have a negative impact on the

credit market.

5 Conclusion

According to the results of the development of

strategic performance maps of the financial market

of Ukraine, it was established that the step-by-step

descriptive and numerical presentation of data in

dynamic programming models allows for

determining adequate measures that must be

implemented to achieve the target performance,

which in 2022 will amount to 440,688.2 million

UAH. (which is 3.3% lower than the value of 2021),

and in 2023 – UAH 570,784.3 million. (which is

25.3% higher than the value of 2021). The content of

strategic performance maps of the financial market

of Ukraine should be aimed at determining the

measures that will ensure the achievement of the

priority structure of distribution of funds by

operations, provided that it will also contribute to the

implementation of the strategy for the development

of the financial sector of Ukraine until 2025.

Indeed, the strategic map ensures the

transformation of information about the structure

and development trends of the financial market into

team information focused on the production of

effects. The developed set of dynamic performance

models focuses on visualizing the formation and

redistribution of free financial resources and the

growth of benefits for critical financial market

operations. It is illustrated that the outlined complex

of dynamic models, based on the connection with

stochastic models, ensures the scientific validity of

the developed strategic measures, with the help of

which it is possible to exceed the increase in benefits

achieved in 2021 by the end of 2024. Such models

determine adequate measures, such as sets of

actions, that should be used to achieve the target

performance, which in 2022 amounted to UAH

427,895.7 million. (which is 6.7% lower than the

value of 2021), and in 2024 – UAH 575,549.75

million. (which is 25% higher than the value of

2021).

References:

[1] National Bank of Ukraine (2023). Strategy for

the development of the financial sector of

Ukraine until 2025. (Стратегія розвитку

фінансового сектору України до 2025

року.), [Online].

https://bank.gov.ua/ua/about/develop-strategy

(Accessed Date: November 12, 2023).

[2] State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2023).

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(Статистична інформація (конст.)),

[Online]. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/

(Accessed Date: November 12, 2023).

[3] Nadtochiy, I., Krylenko, V., Tkach, V.,

Kramarenko, I., Chumakov, K. (2022).

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https://doi.org/10.37394/232015.2022.18.47.

[4] Spread on foreign exchange market

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Date: November 12, 2023).

[7] National Bank of Ukraine, 2022. Non-cash

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cash-fx-market-volume-year (Accessed Date:

November 12, 2023).

[8] Irtyshcheva, І., Pavlenko, O., Kramarenko, I.,

Liashenko, O., Stehnei, M., Nadtochiy, I.,

Boiko, Y., Zavhorodnij, K., Hryshyna, N.,

Ishchenko, O. (2022), Environmental Security

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13(5), pp. 1229–1239

[9] Supervisory statistics. National Bank of

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https://bank.gov.ua/ua/statistic/supervision-

statist/data-supervision#1 (Accessed Date:

November 12, 2023).

[10] Statistics of the financial sector. National

Bank of Ukraine, 2023. (Статистика

фінансового сектору. Національний банк

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Mykhalchynets Halyna, Mykhalchynets Nataliia

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України,), [Online].

https://bank.gov.ua/ua/statistic/sector-

financial/data-sector-financial#2fs (Accessed

Date: November 12, 2023).

[11] Vyshnevska, O., Irtyshcheva, I.; Kramarenko,

I.Popadynets, N., Ponomarova, M. (2022).

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Forecasting the Activities of Market Entities.

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Engineering, vol.15(1), pp.261-268.

[12] Non-cash foreign exchange market (monthly

information). National Bank of Ukraine, 2022.

(Безготівковий валютний ринок (щомісячна

інформація). Національний банк України),

[Online]. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets/non-

cash-fx-market-volume-year (Accessed Date:

November 12, 2023).

[13] Kramarenko, I., Stehnei, M., Boiko, Y.,

Nadtochii, I., Pavlenko, O., Vladislav, R.,

Hryshyna, N., Sirenko, I., Ishchenko, O.,

Tubaltsevа, N. (2022). Socio-economic

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[14] Stehnei, M., Irtyshcheva, I., Kramarenko, I.,

Boiko, Y., Nadtochiy, I., Sirenko, I.,

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Mykhalchynets Halyna, Mykhalchynets Nataliia

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APPENDIX

Table 1. Dynamic model of the effectiveness of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine for 2022, 2024, UAH million. (formed through the descriptive-numerical

presentation of data on IP transactions)

quarter

Maximum income including spread, $. тис*

xi

,$млн

F, annual/restriction

Maximum income including spread, $. тис*

xi

,$млн

F, annual/restriction

2022 р.

2024 р.

PLN-

UAH

CHF-

UAH

EUR-

UAH

GBP-

UAH

CAD -

UAH

USD-

UAH

PLN-

UAH

CHF-

UAH

EUR-

UAH

GBP-

UAH

CAD -

UAH

USD-

UAH

1

2

3

4

5

6

1

2

3

4

5

6

The volume of non-cash bank operations ІВ

1

241

108

216

126

94

1324

36012

2684/ базові ІВ

382

191

426

223

165

2338

63584

3555.7/«…»

2

327

154

192.1

168

125

399

48016

339

271

776

297

220

704

84779

3

540

245

1360

259

187

504

72024

954

432

1217

458

331

890

127168

4

1080

504

1252

533

375

1008

122268

1908

890

2213

941

661

1780

145186

Volume of operations with cash IP of banks and non-banking institutions

1

19

9.7

29

8.4

6.8

129

3224

298.7/«…»

14

16

76.3

14.2

11

218

5449

525/«…»

2

26

13.8

49

18.6

11

250

4299

13.6

13.3

102.1

14.5

19

423

7266

3

29

21.9

120

16.8

12.9

58

6449

49

37.1

203.8

28.3

22

98

10899

4

70

45.1

258

26

20

78

28590,7

68.7

56.3

436

43.6

35

133

45976,1

The volume of transactions of bank customers with non-cash foreign currency

1

163

109

507

73

76

1087

36234

2125,4/«…»

244

163

758

108

114

1625

54157

3177.9/«…»

2

217

45

676

97

102

1449

48312

325

217

1011

144

152

2167

72210

3

253

217

1015

45

152

652

72468

379

325

1516.

217

228

948

108315

4

507

434

2029

290

275

884

104817,7

758

650

3033

433.4

412

1321

132341

Anonymous cash transactions of clients of non-banking institutions with IP, exchange between private individuals

1

99

110

220

196

44

960

22020

1486 / ІВ

for demand

140

70.4

334

46.7

49

704

23458

1359.7/«…»

2

132

146

293

161

159

587

29360

188

93.7

437

66

625

31277

3

198

220

440

242

288

396

44041

281

140

656

93

99

422

46916

4

396

340

1223

484

476

748

72578,02

422

281

1313

187

178

798

69522,6

Maximum market performance –6594,2

Maximum market performance –8618,3

Note: * The descriptive-numerical presentation of data on foreign currency purchase and sale transactions is implemented in terms of basic types of exchange transactions

according to indicators of investment capacity and the maximum possible income for each type of transaction, which is determined by the average values of the spread (Spread by

foreign exchange market transactions, 2022, 2024, %, 2023).

Source: formed according to data, [5], [1]

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Table 2. Supplement to the dynamic model of the foreign exchange market performance, which determines the target conditions for the movement of financial

resources for 2022, and 2024.

2022

2024

Income function F*1…n

Distribution of operations u*1…n

Income function F*1…n/

Distribution of operations u*1…n

1

2

3

4

5

Bank operations with non-cash foreign currency (sale)*(1)

PLN-UAH

F*1(e0=122268)=1008,1

u*1(e0=122268)=0

F*1(e0=145186)=1780,3

u*1(e0=145186)=0

CHF-UAH

F*2(e1 = 122268)=1324

u*2(e1=122268) = 0

F*2(e1=145186)=2338,4

u*2(e1=145186)=0

EUR-UAH

F*3(e2 =122268)=1448.8

u*3(e2=50244)=72024

F*3(e2 =145186)=3555.7

u*3(e2=127168)=127168

…

USD-UAH

F*6(e5 =50244)=1235,3

u*6(e5=0)= 50244

F*5(e4 =18018)=3555.7

F*5(e4=0)=18018

Operations with cash foreign currency of banks and non-banking institutions (sale)*(2)

PLN-UAH

F*1(e0 = 28590.7)=78

u*1(e0 = 28590.7)=0

F*1(e0=45976.1)=133

u*1(e0=45976.1)=0

CHF-UAH

F*2(e1=28590.7)=129

u*2(e1 = 28590.7)=0

F*2(e1=45976.1)=218

u*2(e1=45976.1)=0

EUR-UAH

F*3(e2=28590.7)=137.4

u*3(e2=28590.7)=4299.3

F*3(e2=45976.1)=102,1

u*3(e2=45976.1)=7266

…

USD-UAH

F*6(e5 =24291.7)=161,4

u*6(e5=0)= 24291.7

F*5(e4= 38710.1)=422,9

u*5(e4=0)= 38710.1

Operations of bank clients with non-cash foreign currency*(3)

PLN-UAH

F*1(e0 =104817,7)=884

u*1(e0 = 144936.7) = 0

F*1(e0 =132341)=1321,4

u*1(e0 =132341)=0

CHF-UAH

F*2(e1=104817,7)=1087

u*2(e1 = 144936.7) = 0

F*2(e1=132341)=113,7

u*2(e1=132341)=0

EUR-UAH

F*3(e2 =104817,7)= 676,4

u*3(e2 =104817,7)=48312

F*3(e2 =132341)=1010,9

u*3(e2=132341)=72210

…

USD-UAH

F*6(e5 = 56505,7) =1449

u*6(e5=0)=56050,7

F*6(e5 = 60131)= 2167

u*6(e5=0)=60131

Anonymous cash transactions of clients of non-banking institutions with IP, exchange between private individuals

PLN-UAH

F*1(e0 = 72578,02) =748

u*1(e0 = 72578,02) = 0

F*1(e0 = 69522,6)=798

u*1(e0 =69522,6) =0

CHF-UAH

F*2(e1 = 72578,02) =526

u*2(e1 = 72578,02) =22020

F*2(e1=69522,6)=753

u*2(e1 = 69522,6)=0

EUR-UAH

F*3(e2 = 50558,02) = 0

u*3(e2 =50558,02) = 0

F*3(e2=69522,6)=769,4

u*3(e2 =69522,6)=46916

…

USD-UAH

F*6(e5 =50558,02) =960

u*5(e4 =0)= 50558,02

F*5(e4=22606)=1359.7

u*5(e4 =0)=22060

Note: * field of spread on foreign exchange market operations, [4]

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Table 3. Results of the evaluation of the effectiveness of the financial market of Ukraine in 2021 with a forecast for 2022 and 2024, UAH million.

Combinatorial

component

(markets)

Purchase and sale

operations,

investment

Direction of strategic maps (SC) for 2022-2023.

The basis for determining

the target orientation of the

SC *

Efficiency (maximum resulting

inflow)

Priority structure

of markets

Actual

targeted

2021*

2022

2024

monetary

foreign currency

6623,8

6594,2

8618,3

step-by-step descriptive-

numerical presentation of

data in dynamic models, see

Table 1 and Table 2 (allows

to measure the resulting

inflow of the financial

market by assets,

combinatorial components).

depositary

deposits

83289,7

82688,6

95605,5

credit

loans

86664

66295

106122

securities

securities,

except shares

261007

250421

340707

shares

3550,79

3363

3715

derivative

financial

instruments and

forward

contracts

futures,

forwards,

options

7,89

10,02

11,02

real estate

property rights

17769,1

18523,86

20770,93

Together

458912

427895,7

575549,75

Note: *data are partially comparable, as the performance evaluation method is not disclosed.

Source: [5]

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Table 4. Strategic map of the effectiveness of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine for 2022-2024, UAH million.

Indexes

Mathematical interpretation of goals

Textual interpretation of ways to achieve

goals

Fact

Target landmarks*

structure of

operations

Target

performance

market capacity

effect

факт

цільова *

Measures /

strategic

direction*

Strategic actions**

2021

2022

2024

2021

2022

2024

2022

2024

Operations of banks with non-cash IP

Decrease in the

share of AO;

increasing the

share of non-

cash/cash

purchase/sale of

IP / 1

Stimulating the

development of

payment

infrastructure for

non-cash

transactions /2

1,2,3,4,

Based on these

strategic

measures and

principles, the

NBU defines a

list of

operational

measures to

support the

banking system

5,6

7

purchase

117657,1

121048

142967

37,2

37,1

37

2684

3555.7

selling

117657,1

122268

145186

Volume of transactions with cash foreign currency of banks

purchase

20297,8

32159,1

56594,1

6,6

9,3

13,1

298.7

525

selling

21512,5

28590,7

45976,1

Balance

-1214,7

-3568,4

-10618

The volume of transactions of bank customers with non-cash foreign currency

purchase

94951,9

100784,8

126289

30,2

31,4

33

2125,4

3177.9

selling

96107,5

104817,7

132341

Balance

-1155,6

4032,85

6052,71

Anonymous cash transactions of clients of non-banking institutions with IP,

exchange between private persons (AO)

purchase

82945,7

73313,44

66050,8

26

22,3

16,9

486

1359.7

selling

81298,8

72578,02

69522,6

Balance

-1646,9

-735,42

3471,78

The total capacity of the market (or the volume of IP transactions on the foreign

exchange market without NBU interventions)

purchase

320758

327304,9

391901

100

6594,2

8618,3

selling

316637

328254,4

393026

100

Balance

-4121,1

949,48

1124,8

-

Note: * Strategic direction: transparent financial sector (1); financial inclusion/availability of financial services in base currencies, bankable metals (2); Financial

sustainability (3).

** strategic actions by authorities: (1) protection of the interests of bank clients; maintenance of banks' activities and their liquidity (2); reflection of the real financial

condition of banks (3); currency liberalization (4); strategic actions on the part of corporations: (5) reduction of fees for payment services for goods and services; (6) carrying out

cash and non-cash transactions; (7) operation of base currencies taking into account the maximization of the effect of operations.

Formed according to data: [6], [7], [9], [1]

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Table 5. Strategic performance map of the deposit market of Ukraine, 2022-2024

Математична інтерпретація цілей

Textual interpretation of ways to

achieve goals

Fact.,

million

hryvnias.

Target values., million

hryvnias.

Structure of

values,%

Target

effectiveness,

million

hryvnias.

Market capacity

Result

Fact

targeted

Measures/CH

*

Strategic actions**

2021

2022

2024

2021

2022

2024

2022

2024

Amount of deposits raised from other financial corporations

Reduction of

balances on

deposit

accounts in

national and

foreign

currencies / 1

1

Based on the

principles of

these strategic

measures, the

NBU defines

a list of

operational

measures to

guarantee

deposits

2,3

4

In total

45824

40058,9

51336,2

100

2222.6

2395

on request

24573

15362,9

26618,5

53,62

0,50

0,52

up to 1 year

16763

0

36,58

0

1 to 2 years

4105

0

8,96

0

from 2 years

382

15362,9

24718,2

0,83

0,50

0,48

The amount of deposits raised from non-financial corporations

In total

633806

651945

864338

100

36817

42774

on request

482804

0

76,18

0

up to 1 year

121158

651945

864338

19,12

100

1 to 2 years

22507

0

3,55

0

from 2 years

7 337

0

1,16

0

Amount of deposits raised from households

In total

794152

608253,7

848841,2

100

38583

47024.5

on request

473242

428692

59,59

70,5

0

up to 1 year

209207

0

308550

26,34

0

0,363

1 to 2 years

101748

12,8

0

from 2 years

9955

179561

540291

1,25

29,5

63,65

The volume of deposits of other deposit corporations

In total

16001

17648,8

31741,4

100

2814

1070

on request

14360

0

89,74

0

up to 1 year

1175

0

38090,8

7,34

0

100

1 to 2 years

458

0

2,86

0

from 2 years

8

17648.8

0

0,05

100

0

The amount of deposits raised from non-residents

In total

29688

41406,8

38090,8

100

2252.7

2342

on request

24306

0

89,74

0

up to 1 year

3 908

0

7,34

0

1 to 2 years

971

41406,8

38090,8

2,86

100

from 2 years

502

0

0,05

0

Market capacity or the total volume of deposits involved

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In total

1519471

1349980

1840697

100

82688,

6

95605,5

on request

1019285

444054,9

26618,5

67,08

32,89

1,45

up to 1 year

352211

651945,1

1210979

23,2

48,3

65,8

1 to 2 years

129789

41406,8

38090,75

8,5

3,1

2,1

from 2 years

18 184

212573,4

565009,2

1,2

15,7

30,7

Note:* strategic direction (SN): financial stability/increasing the liquidity of banks (1).

** strategic actions on the part of authorities: (1) improvement of the deposit guarantee system and withdrawal of insolvent financial institutions from the market; strategic actions

by deposit corporations: raising deposit rates (2); convenience, innovative availability of non-cash operations and reliability of bank services (3); operation of deposit funds taking

into account the maximization of the effect of transactions with them.

Source: formed based on (Non-cash currency market (monthly information), [7]

Contribution of Individual Authors to the

Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting

Policy)

Halyna Mykhalchynets, Nataliia Mykhalchynets

carried out the simulation and the optimization.

Inna Irtyshcheva, Marianna Stehnei, Iryna

Kramarenko was responsible for the Statistics.

Oleksandra Liashenko has organized writing -

original draft.

Natalia Hryshyna, Olena Ishchenko performed

visualization.

Sources of Funding for Research Presented in a

Scientific Article or Scientific Article Itself

No funding was received for conducting this study.

Conflict of Interest

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0

(Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0)

This article is published under the terms of the

Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en_

US

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