
The results of calculations show that in the
farms of the 1st group, with an indifferent attitude
to risk (the risk aversion coefficient is zero), wheat
(75.0%) and flax (25.0%) are included in the
production structure. The expected margin income
per 1 hectare is 75.5 thousand tenge, the variability
is 47.0%. As the coefficient of relative risk
aversion increases (the entrepreneur is more
careful when making a decision), the share of
wheat decreases, and barley is included in the
structure. With a "normal" degree of risk aversion
characteristic of most entrepreneurs (in the
conditions of the problem, this corresponds to a
coefficient of relative risk aversion for marginal
income of 0.3), the shares of wheat, barley, and
flax are 66.9%, 8.1%, and 25.0%, respectively. The
expected marginal income per 1 ha is 75.4
thousand tenge with a variability of 46.6%. In case
of risk aversion with a coefficient of 0.6 or higher,
barley (75.0%) and flax (25.0%) remain in the
optimal production plan, and wheat is excluded.
On the farms of the 2nd group, the optimal
sowing plan includes wheat, peas and flax with any
attitude to risk. The change in the value of the risk
aversion coefficient affects the ratio of the share of
these crops in the plan. In the case when the value
of the risk coefficient is zero, wheat, peas and flax
occupy 23.5%, 51.5% and 25.0%, respectively.
The expected margin income from 1 ha is 85.4
thousand tenge with a volatility of 56.6%. With an
increase in the degree of risk aversion, the
dominance of wheat in the structure of crops
increases. With the coefficient of relative risk
aversion for marginal income equal to 1.2, the
optimal structure of crops is as follows: wheat
occupies 65.8%, peas 9.2%, and flax 25.0%. The
expected margin income per 1 ha is reduced to
77.5 thousand tenge, but the variability is also
reduced to 46.8%.
For the 3rd group of farms, agricultural crops
include wheat, peas and flax, while the share of
each of these crops varies depending on the degree
of risk aversion by the farmer. With the
entrepreneur's indifferent attitude to risk, the share
of wheat is 6.6%, peas 68.4%, flax 25%. The
expected margin income per 1 hectare is 117.3
thousand tenge with a variation of 55.9%. With an
extreme degree of risk aversion (it corresponds to
the coefficient of relative risk aversion for margin
income of 1.2), the share of wheat increases to
65.7%, the share of peas decreases to 9.3%, and
the share of flax remains unchanged. The amount
of expected income from 1 ha of crops is reduced
to 105.1 thousand tenge, the variability also
decreases to 44.0%.
The structure of crops of the 4th group of farms
with an indifferent attitude of the entrepreneur to
the risk includes wheat (75.0%) and flax (25.0%).
At the same time, the expected marginal income
from 1 hectare is 89.2 thousand tenge, the
variability is 46.3%. If the coefficient of relative
risk aversion for margin income is 0.9, peas are
included in the crop structure, and the share of its
crops increases as risk aversion increases. With
extreme reluctance to take risks, wheat (70.2%),
peas (4.8%) and flax (25.0%) are included in the
optimal structure of crops. The amount of expected
income from 1 ha of crops is reduced to 86.3
thousand. tenge, the coefficient of variation is
reduced to 41.4%.
Wheat (75.0%) and rapeseed (25.0%) are
included in the production structure of the 5th
group of farms with an indifferent attitude to risk.
At the same time, the expected margin income per
1 hectare is 96.9 thousand tenge, the variability of
income is 36.2%. The composition of crops and the
structure of crops with a coefficient of relative risk
aversion of 0.3 looks like this: wheat (66.7%),
buckwheat (8.3%), rapeseed (25.0%). The
expected margin income per 1 hectare with such a
degree of risk aversion is 96.7 thousand tenge, the
variability is 33.1%.
On the farms of the 6th group, wheat (75.0%)
and flax (25.0%) predominate in the production
structure. With an extreme degree of risk aversion,
barley appears in the optimal plan: wheat (42.4%),
barley (32.6%), and flax (25.0%). The amount of
expected marginal income per 1 hectare of crops is
decreased from 122.6 thousand tenge to 121.3
thousand tenge, the variability of income is
reduced from 45.7% to 44.5%.
Note that when solving the problem, it was
assumed that there were no restrictions on the
volume of sales of products. The presence of such
conditions, of course, will make changes to
production plans.
In general, there is a certain pattern in changes
in the structure of production, depending on the
degree of farmer’s risk aversion. This pattern is
manifested in the fact that the stronger the risk
aversion, the more diversified the structure of
crops becomes. This feature is consistent with the
findings previously made by many international
and national researchers who studied issues related
to agriculture risk, [16]. It is worth noting that the
long-term predominance of cereals, in particular
wheat, in northern Kazakhstan, inherited from the
former Soviet agriculture, certainly affects the pace
and features of crop diversification in the region.
About 60% of the acreage is still occupied by grain
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.210
Talgat Kussaiynov, Gulnara Mussina,
Sandugash Tokenova, Saltanat Mambetova