educated people not only economic indicators but also political environment and educational system quality are

significant factors, which influence emigration.

Key-Words: - Brain drain, Cluster Analysis, Emigration, Regression Analysis, Western Balkans.

Received: April 27, 2023. Revised: September 28, 2023. Accepted: October 3, 2023. Published: October 13, 2023.

1 Introduction

The Western Balkans (WB) are characterised by a

the 1990s, [1]. According to, [2], although the

countries of south-eastern Europe are characterised

by abundant emigration dating back several

decades, the change that took place at the end of the

last century is that the emigration of unskilled

workers has mostly turned into emigration of highly

skilled workers.

economically underdeveloped society, education in

WB countries was also unable to progress to the

remained almost unchanged), [3]. Consequently,

ambitious students, who aim to raise their

knowledge and skills to a higher level, seek

“refuge” in more developed countries to have

opportunities for better education systems, training,

research, etc. These differences in education

consider the effect of migration on development.

Therefore, emigration of the highly educated

population may be detrimental to development by

slowing it down. Overproduction of professional

manpower is therefore used for the development of

already developed countries and thereby slows

down the development of underdeveloped countries,

same rate in regard to overall education levels. In,

[5], emigration growth to population growth are

compared and the conclusion is given that the

emigration rate has not increased drastically in the

past few decades when population growth is taken

into account. However, if only high-skilled

migration is considered, it has grown at a much

faster pace and may be considered one of the major

unstable countries with a low level of human capital

have a higher proportion of brain drain (the positive

relationship between emigration and political

instability and religious fractionalisation was also

presented in, [4], while government effectiveness

has not proven to be a significant variable). At a

micro level, factors that affect emigration are career

concerns and lifestyle and family reasons in addition

to higher income, [8]. Authors of, [9], came to the

conclusion that high wages in developed countries

regions of Africa and Asia are characterised by high

levels of brain drain.

emigration (although it should be noted that skilled

migrants are less sensitive to distance), while former

colonies, as well as bilingual states, are more open

to migration, [4]. Moreover, [10], came to the

conclusion that “Cultural similarities, colonial

people over the age of 55, persons with disabilities,

and other vulnerable groups. Therefore, most people

emigrating abroad do not plan their return, at least

not before they retire.

costs of a respectable lifestyle. Average earnings as

well as GDP per capita in the most popular

from Vojvodina (the northern province of Serbia) to

neighbouring Hungary is due to economic reasons,

and especially high unemployment. Although this

reduces the unemployment rate, it also has a major

negative impact on human capital in the home

country, as explained above. In general, destination

countries for migration are not only Western

European countries but also countries from central

the education of a young person for eight to over 20

years and when persons leave the state, this

investment, which becomes an expense, turns into

an investment in the state that receives these

educated people without taking any costs for their

education. Furthermore, the reduction in GDP may

be seen as another undesirable effect because people

who leave no longer contribute to the state budget,

both by consuming and paying income taxes, [14].

The long-term effect of education level on GDP is

further development of the economy, given that in

all the countries a negligible part of these funds goes

to investments. Authors of, [19], studied the

effectiveness of migration policy in the context of

sustainable development in EU and non-EU

countries.

during the war period from 1992 to 1995, although

2 Material and Methods

The term “Western Balkans” generally refers to

became a Member State, we could exclude it from

the WB, but considering the historical background

of this country, it is often still included in this group.

Although many studies research Kosovo as a

separate country, there is a lack of the data we need,

so Kosovo will not be included in the further

analysis. Given that the most recent reliable

migration data are from 2015, we will take other

indicators for this year as well.

economic activity and is therefore an important

representative of the economic development gaps

between the examined countries. Expressing GDP in

PPS eliminates differences in price levels between

countries. The wage level is considered to be one of

the major motivations for migration. Two indicators

of wage level, statutory nominal gross monthly

minimum wage and mean nominal monthly earnings

of employees (both converted to U.S. dollars as the

common currency in order to make it easier to

the unemployment rate of a highly educated

population, and the share of youth not in employed,

education, or training (NEET). The unemployment

rate of the highly educated population and the share

of youth NEET is of particular importance when

taking into account the emigration of the young and

highly educated population. The values of the

unemployment rate and share of youth NEET were

also taken from the ILOSTAT database, while the

values of the unemployment rate of the highly

into different clusters will help us to evaluate the

current position of the examined countries in

relation to EU countries in all the selected areas. For

the purposes of this analysis, the computational

system MATLAB R2021a will be used. Another

statistical method examined will be regression

analysis, discussed in detail by, [23]; regression of

average. BiH achieves the worst results, with

extremely negative values of both indicators.

the highest emigration rates are among the highly

educated population. In BiH in 2015, more than 4%

of the highly educated population were emigrants.

Fig. 5: Emigration rates and population structure

by education level

Croatia, and North Macedonia, while Serbia and

somewhat equal. However, this does not diminish

the fact that the group of highly educated population

is most vulnerable to emigration.

due to both the end of the wars and the significant

changes following the overthrow of Slobodan

Milosevic and the socialist regime and the

beginning of the rule of democracy. It is also worth

noting that despite a comparable population with

other countries (except Serbia, which is the most

populous of all the countries surveyed), BiH reached

difference in the units of measurement, together

with the Ward criterion. The clusters were formed

as shown in Figure 7.

cluster analysis using a k-means algorithm, the

optimal number of clusters seems to be four or six.

The setting of six clusters would lead to the

formation of two extra clusters than we obtained, of

migration rate in this cluster, however, is not nearly

as low, so it is possible to assume that although

these countries have a large outflow of population,

they also have a high inflow of immigrants. The

lowest value of this indicator is reached by the

cluster consisting of the WB countries. Cluster

immigration rates calculated for immigrants from

WB countries only (Albania, BiH, Montenegro,

North Macedonia, and Serbia) are shown in Figure

8. These rates are calculated using a standard

especially in the period between 1990 and 2000 for

cluster 1 and in the period between 1990 and 1995

for cluster 4, when major political and military

conflicts were taking place in the region. The sharp

increase in the number of immigrants in cluster 4 in

the early 1990s was mainly caused by the huge

number of BiH citizens who emigrated en masse to

neighboring Croatia. The high immigration rate in

cluster 1 is mainly caused by the large-scale

emigration of the Bosnian population to Serbia, but

also by the huge number of Albanians who