of RCEP countries (OPEN), and the geographical distance between Vietnam and RCEP countries (DIS) both

have an impact on Vietnam's trade balance with RCEP countries. In particular, FDI and DIS have a positive

impact on Vietnam's trade balance with these countries. However, GDP and OPEN hurt Vietnam's trade

balance with RCEP countries. Based on those research results, the article also implies several policies to take

advantage of the advantages as well as limit the difficulties of RCEP to improve Vietnam's trade balance with

RCEP countries, including (1) Implementing policies to attract foreign investment more effectively for

developed countries in RCEP; (2) Develop a strategy to focus on promoting exports to potential markets in

RCEP; and (3) Implement policies to support Vietnamese enterprises in renewing equipment, renewing

technology, and renewing production processes to meet the quality and standards of the RCEP countries'

markets.

1 Introduction

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

is a free trade agreement that includes 10 ASEAN

member countries and five countries with which

ASEAN has signed a free trade agreement,

including Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and

New Zealand. The objective of the RCEP is to

integrate the various FTAs that the 10 ASEAN

countries have signed with Japan, Korea, Australia,

New Zealand, India, and China (ASEAN + 1) into a

development, removes trade barriers, removes tariff

barriers, facilitates goods access to new markets,

and attracts investment from other countries. RCEP

signed and put into practice will create opportunities

for Vietnamese businesses to boost exports to 14

stronger competitiveness than Vietnam... The

markets in the bloc also have large differences in

terms of goods quality requirements and the risk of

trade disturbance and diversion. Therefore, in this

study, the author wants to analyze and determine

which factors affect Vietnam's trade balance with

these countries, as well as the impact trend of each

factor to have separate policy policies for each

country in the RCEP bloc. On that basis, the article

also hopes to suggest some policies to boost

study takes into account both the impact of the

removal of tariff and non-tariff barriers. The

simulation results of, [1], show that the removal of

non-tariff barriers significantly increases the

benefits of trade liberalization. In the case of RCEP,

the GDP of the RCEP economies would increase by

about 2.7% if tariff barriers were completely

removed. This figure will increase to 4.9% if the

removal of the tariff is accompanied by the removal

of non-tariff barriers. Low-income economies in the

model to assess whether businesses take advantage

of the benefits of existing Free Trade Agreements

(FTAs) in ASEAN, [2]. The results show that the

proportion of enterprises using FTAs in ASEAN is

not high, although there are very few restrictions on

the regulation of origin standards in ASEAN. The

reason is that the administrative costs of using FTAs

in ASEAN are large and administrative procedures

are not efficient, especially in Malaysia, the

industry uses the FTA effectively, but electrical,

electronic, and precision machinery and equipment

do not take advantage of FTAs; and only significant

reductions in preferential tax rates in FTAs can

focusing on border effects. Through the use of the

gravity model, the study has shown the existence of

border effect for countries participating in RCEP,

the study has an important reference value for

leaders of RCEP countries when negotiating.

by $209 billion yearly and commerce by $500

billion, according to [7]. The collapse in

international trade based on regulations could be

exemplified by the RCEP and CPTPP.

crucial.

is mostly economic. The agreement might serve as a

foundation for a trading system by harmonizing

regulations and streamlining commercial

transactions across the several overlapping and

varied FTAs in East Asia. However, given that

RCEP has the potential to establish a new paradigm,

its strategic components are also crucial, particularly

for the increasingly inward-looking United States.

greater impact on the RCEP than the EU does.

Instead, the "nominal" RCEP has a lot fewer

transactions than the "real" block of transactions.

The impact of intra-regional trade on the RCEP is

superior to that of the EU. As opposed to "real"

East Asia are higher than the average relationship.

trade by 1.5%. The income in China will rise by 2.5

percent. Korea's income would rise by 0.6 percent

and its commerce will climb by $8 billion. China

will receive $214 billion in welfare, whereas South

Korea would receive $233.5 billion, or 3% of the

GDP of Korea. Additionally, the removal of post-

border barriers has a huge impact.

a lot, because any country can export to this market.

Therefore, the trend of the impact of the economic

openness factor of RCEP countries on the trade

balance between Vietnam and RCEP countries is

also unknown that needs to be clarified in this study.

RCEP countries into Vietnam (FDI): For developing

countries like Vietnam, FDI plays a very important

role. FDI is considered an additional source of

capital to improve domestic production capacity,

between Vietnam and RCEP countries. The farther

the geographical distance, the higher the

transportation cost, and at the same time increases

the risk of damage, breakage, natural disaster, etc.

for goods during international transportation. That

will increase the cost of products, which can affect

imports and exports between countries, as well as

the trade balance of those countries. However,

countries that are far apart often have different

natural conditions, so national advantages are often

shortfalls. Therefore, this is also a factor that is said

to need to be carefully considered to see the nature

of Vietnam's trade balance with RCEP countries

with different geographical characteristics.

influencing the trade balance between Vietnam and

and subject multiplier constant and a random

variable.

intercepts are fixed, while REM assumes that the

cross-units differ due to error.

When to use the REM model? Usually in this case,

the research will use the Hausman test to choose

between two models FEM and REM. Specifically,

Hausman tests whether there is an autocorrelation

the independent variable are correlated, allowing the

use of a fixed effects model. Otherwise, a random

effects model is used.

the fit of the model.

the defects of the model, the author also applies the

variance test, the series correlation test. If there is

variable variance or autocorrelation, the author will

shows that Prob = 0.0006 is less than 0.05, so the

REM model has autocorrelation.

GLS model to overcome the phenomenon of

variable variance and autocorrelation of the REM

model, the estimated results are as follows (Table

5): Table 5. Estimated results according to the GLS

correlation relationship between the trade balances

between Vietnam and RCEP countries with the

factors is shown by the following equation:

0.0000258*FDI + 0.0000302*DIS –

0.0009574*OPEN + 0.7128371

proportion of Vietnam's exports to imports

compared to that country. The increase in foreign

direct investment attraction of RCEP countries to

Vietnam will help Vietnam improve its trade

balance with these countries. Research results also

show that distance is not an obstacle but a positive

factor in Vietnam's trade balance with RCEP

countries. When the countries in RCEP are further

apart from Vietnam, the product structure will be

less similar to the import-export structure of

countries, the higher the standard of living, and the

higher the requirements for product quality, making

it difficult for Vietnamese exports to access these

markets. That negatively affects Vietnam's trade

balance with this country. This can be seen as the

biggest challenge for Vietnam when RCEP comes

into effect. Because RCEP is the area with the

largest concentration of direct competitors to

Vietnam, and also the region with the largest trade

deficit in Vietnam. Many partners in RCEP have

partners participating in RCEP (China and some

ASEAN countries) but has stronger

competitiveness. This would be a disadvantage.

Exporting to partner countries will become more

and more difficult, as these countries set higher

quality standards. Therefore, the Vietnamese

government needs to develop policies to support

businesses to invest in renewing equipment,

renewing technology, and innovating the production

process of products that meet the quality and

countries. This result shows that the more RCEP

countries remove trade barriers, the more difficult it

becomes for Vietnamese goods to compete with

those of other countries in the bloc. The promotion

of exports to these countries also faces many

difficulties, causing negative effects on the intra-

References:

[1] Kawasaki, Kenichi. The relative significance

[2] Hiratsuka, Daisue, et al. Maximizing benefits

Contribution of Individual Authors to the

Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting

Policy)

Dr. Le Thi Anh Tuyet carried out this study

completely independently, from Data curation,

Formal analysis, design of methodology, Writing -

original draft, Writing - review & editing.

Sources of Funding for Research Presented in a

Scientific Article or Scientific Article Itself

Conflict of Interest

This article is published under the terms of the

Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en

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