Problematic Public Debt in Jordan
MAZEN HASAN BASHA
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences,
Zarqa University,
JORDAN
Abstract: - Current research aims to highlight the impact of public debt on the Jordanian economy exploring
whether public debt is problematic for the Jordanian economy. For this purpose, a systematic review is
conducted based on the previous relevant articles selected from the SCOPUS database. Based on the process of
classification, selection, and eligibility process of thirty-one articles are finally included as the leading articles
being reviewed by the current research. This review helped generate an opinion about the impact of public debt
(PD) on economic growth (EG) in light of previous literature and then discussing these findings in the context
of the Jordanian economy highlighted the impact of Jordanian public debt. The findings indicate that although
there are contrary views reported in the literature about the relationship of public debt with different economic
factors and especially economic growth, the context of Jordan’s public debt is problematic for the Jordanian
economy. The current study has significant implications for government officials and policymakers so that they
can plan accordingly keeping in mind the negative impact of public debt.
Key-Words: - Problematic, Public debt, Jordanian economy, Jordan, economic growth, Systematic Review
Received: December 20, 2022. Revised: May 15, 2023. Accepted: June 1, 2023. Published: June 8, 2023.
1 Introduction
The SDGs (“sustainable development goals”)
proposed by the United Nations also include the
achievement of higher economic growth before
2030, [1]. While on the other hand, the emergence
of the fourth industrial revolution in the world has
significantly influenced the countries' economic
structures, compelling them to make huge
investments in machine learning, human capital,
artificial intelligence, and technology development.
This has become the fact of recent scenarios, that
countries could not achieve the goal of economic
development unless they invest in these key areas.
A lack of focus on such key areas results in
investments being made in typical production
methods, leading to the countries' stagnant
economic growth, [2]. According to [3], it is
western governments are encouraging AI and
machine learning investment, setting up educational
initiatives, and engaging in R&D to boost economic
growth.
Another key fact is the requirement for a substantial
amount of financing. Therefore, most of the
countries having lower amounts of investments
from local or cross-border trades mostly require
public borrowings for sustaining their economic
growth and development, [4]. On the other side, the
countries being hit by natural catastrophes require a
huge amount of funds kept as reserves to cope with
emergency situations. Hence, taxation is considered
one of the significant sources of funding to support
uncertain economic situations, [5], otherwise,
economies are hit severely by such levels of
uncertainties as [6], [7], [8], [9]. Taxation is among
the dominating sources of raising funds for meeting
government expenses but in most economies,
especially developing ones; governments are
unable to raise sufficient funds through taxation.
Therefore, public debt is considered by under-
developed economies to finance their expenses and
development projects of the economy in case they
lack sufficient funds, [4]. Moreover, taxation is also
a less popular means among stakeholders due to the
excess burden on the public by a reduction in their
purchasing power and enhanced cost of living, [10].
Previous literature reports both; the positive and the
negative impacts of public debt on economies
varying significantly according to the purpose and
its amount. As [11] says, the debt-to-GDP ratio
shows how probable it is for the nation to make
good on its debt obligations. Investors typically
demand a higher interest rate when debt reaches a
threshold. The country's bonds may have a worse
credit rating if it continues to spend. This shows the
likelihood that the nation will not pay its debts in
full and may default. When interest rates climb, it
costs more money for a nation to refinance its
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current debt. Over time, income must be allocated
more toward paying down debt and less toward
state offerings/services.
[12] argued that the debt-to-GDP ratio must be at
least 0.9 while the economy would still hold the
potential for growth having a debt threshold lower
than this. On the other hand, if the amount of public
debt exceeds this threshold, it starts hurting the
economy. Such adverse effects are widely reported
in the literature of developing economies where the
threshold level of debt is found to be at 88.2% on
average, [9]. Hence, economic development
indicates positive signs of debt levels lower than
the threshold level. In contrast, economic growth
indicates declining trends when the debt-to-GDP
ratio exceeds a certain threshold level.
Therefore, the current research mainly focuses on
highlighting the literary consensus on the
contribution of public debt towards Jordanian
economic development through a systematic
review. In light of the findings of previous studies
published from 2018 to 2021; the current research
aims to indicate the threshold level applicable to the
Jordanian economy. Moreover, the study aims to
find generalized findings about the impact of PD on
countries' economic growth and development.
1.1 Systematic Review
The systematic review aims to identify, accumulate
and assess all handy quantitative information
gathered from previous studies. The focus of the
current systematic review is to accumulate reliable
information from reliable articles relevant to the
particular subject matter under study. Public debt
(PD) becomes a critical and vital need for
economies facing a lack of funds, investments, and
savings for their growth and development.
Therefore, the current study aims to find out a
common threshold level of debt that can be
applicable to all economies and then indicate the
threshold level of Jordanian PD to find out whether
it is problematic for the Jordanian economy or not.
The systematic review helps find out the consensus
about the impact of variables under study so that
policymakers can also think and design their
policies accordingly. The gathered information
from the review of previous relevant literature is
coded so that findings can be interpreted
meaningfully and the gap prevailing in the previous
literature could be filled effectively.
2 Method
2.1 Resources; Classification, Selection, and
Eligibility
For gathering reliable quality information, the
articles should be chosen from trustworthy database
sources, hence the SCOPUS database is employed
by the current research because the publications of
this database are considered reliable and follow
higher quality standards. Moreover, the database
also contains sufficient journal articles effectively
available for the period under study. The time span
for the study is 2018 to 2021 so that the latest
trends about the influence of PD can be captured.
The initial stage for conducting the systematic
review is classifying and selecting articles
according to the scope of the study. For this
purpose, the researcher developed a search string in
December 2021 on the basis of specific keywords
associated with PD in relation to economic growth.
The search string used in the current study is
reported in Table 1. On the basis of this search
string, the database (SCOPUS) gathered almost 928
articles.
Table 1. The Search-String of Current Research
(Adapted from [13])
After the accomplishment of the initial stage of the
classification of articles on the basis of the
developed search string, the collected articles were
gone through the screening process on the basis of
defined exclusion and inclusion criteria. These
criteria result in the exclusion of the relevant
articles for enhancing the reliability of the findings.
Name of
Database
Search-String
SCOPUS
“title-abs-key ((“public debt” or
“public fund” or “government debt”)
and (“national income” or
“economic growth” or “GDP”) and
((limit-to (PUBYEAR, 2021) OR
LIMIT-TO (PUBYEAR, 2020) OR
LIMIT-TO (PUBYEAR, 2019) OR
LIMIT-TO (PUBYEAR, 2018))
AND ((LIMIT-TO (PUBSTAGE,
“FINAL”)) AND (LIMIT-TO
(DOCTYPE, “RE”) OR LIMIT-TO
(DOCTYPE, “ART”)) AND
(LIMIT-TO(SRCTYPE, “J”)) AND
(LIMIT-TO(LANGUAGE,
“ENGLISH”))”
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Only particular articles are retained that fulfill the
inclusion criteria which include publication stage,
year of publication, the type of source and
document, and the language. Therefore, based on
these criteria the journal articles published during
the years 2018 to 2021 (in the final stage), in the
English language are included. After such
screening and exclusion of the articles on the basis
of defined criteria, the final number of articles
included for review is 119 articles. The five defined
criteria for current research are reported in the table
below.
Table 2. The Criteria for Inclusion and Exclusion of
Articles for Current Research
Further, the selection of articles is not finalized on
the basis of screening only rather the eligibility
assessment is also done so the selected 119 articles
are also assessed on the basis of their titles, the
main theme and content of the articles, and their
abstracts. Thus, the articles elaborating on the
association of PD with economic growth are finally
selected. Hence 21 articles are selected finally for
the systematic review as they are found according
to the objectives of current research. The whole
procedure elaborated above is indicated in the
following figure.
Fig. 1: The Process of Articles Selection (Adopted
from [14] )
2.2 Abstraction of Data and Analysis
After having all the above-discussed selection
criteria, 10 further articles are included which are
just focusing on the relationship between PD and
economic growth in Jordan only. These articles are
selected randomly from different journals based on
the criteria; journal articles published in English
between the years 2017 to 2021, indicate the
relationship between PD and economic growth in
Jordan. So finally a total of 31 articles have become
part of the study.
The selected 31 articles are further analyzed
quantitatively by tabulating their findings into the
main themes of the articles and then their sub-
themes. The two mainly focused themes employed
for these articles are linear; indicating the linear
association between PD and economic growth, and
non-linear; indicating a non-linear association
between economic growth and PD. These two main
themes indicate the major findings of all the
selected 31 articles of current research. The main
themes are further divided into sub-themes like
three sub-themes are developed for the linear theme
including significantly negative, significantly
positive, or insignificant relationships between the
variables under study. While there are six sub-
themes developed for the non-linear theme
indicating different threshold levels of the debt-to-
GDP ratio. These six sub-themes include; no non-
linear association coded as “0”, debt to GDP
threshold level <20% coded as “1”, threshold level
between 21% and 50% coded as 2, threshold level
between 51% and 70% coded as 3, threshold level
between 71% and 90% coded as 4, threshold level
beyond 90% coded as 5. The next section
incorporates the findings of current research.
Criterion
Exclusion criteria
Language
Other than English
Document
Type
Conference papers,
editorials, short
surveys, conference
reviews, book
chapters, business
articles, books,
reviews, and erratum.
Source
Type
Book series, books,
trade publications, and
conference
proceedings
Publication
stage
Articles in press
Year
Before 2018
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3 Results
Out of the finally selected 31 articles, 16 have
employed the time series analysis, while the other
15 articles have employed the panel data analysis.
Most of the articles using time series analysis have
employed ARDL (“Autoregressive Distributed Lag
Model”), [15], [16], [17]. However, the employed
methodology has no association with the results of
the study as the results indicated a negative impact
of PD on the economic growth of South Africa and
Sri Lanka, [16], [17], while a positive association is
found in Malaysia, despite having the same
methodology of ARDL model, [14]. The other
reasons for the difference in effect include the level
of debt and the stability of economies. Studies
employing panel data analysis have incorporated
different panel methods including the fixed effect,
[18], panel VAR, [19], SYS-GMM, [20], panel
ARDL, [21], least square dummy variable, [20],
and so on. Studies have employed varying
methodologies due to the difference in years of
analysis and the number of cross-sections for each
study. Studies having time and cross sections less
than 25 may employ the SYS-GMM approach
while the others having time and cross sections
more than 25 may apply fixed effects, pooled OLS,
or random effects.
Most of the selected articles have focused on either
high-income economies or mixed economies, while
limited evidence is found in this selected literature,
reporting the impact of PD on the economic growth
of middle-income (lower-middle, upper-middle)
economies and low-income economies, such as
Jordan. Hence, having an investigation into the
Jordanian economy contributes to filling this gap
that should be further filled by researchers in the
future. Moreover, this relationship must be
highlighted in these kinds of economies because
such economies mostly face issues of lack of
capital accumulation. Hence, the lower levels of
investments lead to the requirements of PD for
transformation and grooming of their economic
condition. Therefore, such economies require
significant focus in this regard.
The assessment of the relationship under study
based on the findings of selected 31 articles is
tabulated according to the main themes and their
sub-themes into two tables; one for all other
selected articles and the other for Jordan only.
These are summarized in Tables 3. and 4.
Table 3. Themes indicating the Relationship between PD and EG in Different economies
articles
Year
Debt
Data
Method
Linear
Non-
Linear
+ve
-ve
Insig.
0-5
[23]
2018
ED
TS
ARDL
*
[17]
2019
ED
TS
VAR
*
[16]
2019
DD
TS
ARDL
*
[24]
2018
DD
TS
OLS,ARMA
5
[25]
2018
DD
TS
Dynamic OLS
0
[19]
2019
DD
PN
Panel VAR
*
[26]
2018
DD
TS
ARDL
*
[27]
2018
DD
TS
Undefined
*
[28]
2020
DD
PN
Median
Regression
2
[29]
2019
DD
TS
Regression with
multiple TH
2, 5
[30]
2020
DD
PN
Autoregressive
model
*
[31]
2018
DD
PN
Panel ARDL
*
[32]
2021
ED
PN
ARDL and
Corelation
3
[33]
2019
DD
PN
Panel VAR
3
[34]
2019
DD
PN
Panel VAR
*
[35]
2018
DD
PN
Fixed effect
3
[20]
2018
DD
PN
SYS-GMM
1,5
[9]
2018
DD
PN
PSTR
4,5
[36]
2017
DD &
ED
PN
Trimmed and
winsorised mean
*
[37]
2017
DD
PN
Panel OLS
*
DD=domestic debt, ED= external debt, TS= time series, PN= panel data, Insig= insignificant
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Table 4. Themes indicating the Relationship between PD and EG in Jordan
articles
Yea
r
Debt
Dat
a
Method
Linear
Non-
Linear
+ve
-
ve
Insig
0-5
[38]
2020
NPD,
ED,
DD
TS
SLR
*
[39]
2019
PD
TS
MLR
*
[40]
2021
ED
TS
Granger
causality
*
[41]
2020
PD
TS
OLS
*
[42]
2019
ED
TS
SLR
*
[43]
2018
ED
TS
MLR
*
[44]
2019
PD
TS
SLR
*
[45]
2019
PD
TS
SLR
*
[46]
2020
PD
TS
DTS
4
[22]
2018
DD
TS
SLR
*
NPD= net public debt, PD= public debt, DD=domestic debt, ED= external debt, TS= time series,
PN= panel data, Insig= insignificant, SLR= simple linear regression, MLR=multiple
linear regression, DTS= dynamic threshold structure
4 Discussion
The findings of the studies are divided into
different categories according to the themes.
4.1 Linear Relationship
Among the selected 31 articles, 21 have
investigated the linear relationship between the
variables under study which is further categorized
as an insignificant, negative, or positive
relationship. A linear positive relationship indicates
that the increasing level of debt results in the
growth of the economy. It is a desired situation
since the nation may expand public debt to achieve
its economic goals, like improving infrastructure
and investing in human capital, entrepreneurship,
innovative ventures, and other developments, [13].
This relationship is always preferred by all
economies as governments enhance their PD level
to fulfill their public objectives and make
investments in infrastructure, human capital, etc.
On the other hand, the negative linear association
indicates the vice versa effect which results in
declining the competence of the economy and
declining levels of investors’ interest in making
investments in that economy. Most of the articles
under study have indicated negative linear
relationships including the 9 articles focusing on
the Jordanian economy.
Hence, the findings indicate the negative impact of
PD on EG in all other economies as well as in
Jordan.
4.2 Non-Linear Relationship
When the PD has a two-way effect on economic
growth i.e. both in positive and negative directions,
it indicates the presence of a non-linear
relationship. Previous literature has also indicated
the threshold effect, [21], [22], and the PSTR
(panel smooth transition regression), [9]. The
assessment of non-linear relationships indicates two
main aspects, the presence or absence of non-linear
relationships. The findings indicate the presence of
non-linear relationships is mostly indicated in other
economies but rare evidence is found in the context
of Jordan.
As indicated, when the threshold level exceeds
90%, the economic growth is affected negatively by
the PD and findings of selected studies indicate that
in some economies, the threshold level is found to
be exceeding 90%. It means these economies are
immensely indebted that this debt level is halting
their economic growth. Moreover, one of the
studies conducted for Jordan has also indicated the
presence of non-linear relationships and the
threshold level is at 70-90% category.
Hence, it indicates that the debt level of the
Jordanian economy has increased to an extent that
contributes negatively to its economic growth. [23]
states that simple regression studies confirm that
public debt has a detrimental effect on economic
growth in Jordan, during which it was discovered
that a rise in the ratio of public debt to GDP of
roughly 9.4% lowers GDP growth by 1%. In other
words, if somehow the public debt ratio rises from
80% to 89.4%, the GDP growth rate will fall from
3% to 2%.
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Based on all these findings it is indicated that the
PD in Jordan is problematic for the Jordanian
economy and the increasing level of PD is having a
negative impact on the economic growth of Jordan.
5 Conclusion
The aim of the current research is to focus on the
impact of PD on economic growth, especially in the
context of Jordan. The systematic review is
conducted in a way that initially the consensus of
findings is assessed from all other economies and
then includes the articles from Jordan only. This
assessment has highlighted the impact of PD on EG
in general and then in the context of Jordan also.
The findings indicate that PD has a negative impact
on economic growth and when the level of PD
exceeds a certain threshold level i.e. 90% then it
becomes problematic for the economic growth of
the country. Similar findings are reported for the
relationship in the Jordanian economy. The level of
PD is found to be increasing hence having a
negative impact on the economic growth of Jordan.
These findings have significant implications for the
policymaker of the Jordanian economy as they
should design their policies that the level of PD
should be within a certain threshold level because,
within this threshold level, the PD shares a positive
association with economic growth and contributes
positively in the form of investments by the
government for the economic development of the
country.
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E-ISSN: 2224-2899
1250
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International Journal of Trends in
Accounting Research, 2(1), 106-111.
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Contribution of Individual Authors to the
Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting
Policy)
The author contributed in the present research, at
all stages from the formulation of the problem to
the final findings and solution.
Sources of Funding for Research Presented in a
Scientific Article or Scientific Article Itself
This research is funded by the Deanship of Research
in Zarqa University in Jordan.
Conflict of Interest
The author have no conflict of interest to declare.
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(Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0)
This article is published under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
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WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.110
Mazen Hasan Basha
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
1251
Volume 20, 2023