The Impact of Tax Reform on Economic Growth in Sudan

BADRELDIN MOHAMED AHMED ABDULRAHMAN*, HOUCINE BENLARIA,

HAMZA ABDALLAH ABDALRHMAN YAHYA,

ABDERHIM ELSHAZALI YAHIA ABDALLAH, TARIG OSMAN ABDALLAH HELAL,

IBRAHIM AHMED ELAMIN ELTAHIR, SAEED HASSAN ELAAGEB HASAB ELKARIM,

BABIKER ELYASA ELKHALIFA

Department of Business Administration,

Jouf University,

SAUDI ARABIA

*Corresponding Author information: ORCID: 0000-0003-2174-1150

Abstract: - Tax reform is an important policy tool for governments to promote economic growth. It is an

important aspect of economic policy as it can have a significant impact on the overall health of the

economy. Furthermore, tax reform, foreign direct investment, population growth, and economic activity are all

closely related. This study aims to examine the impact of tax reform on economic growth in Sudan from 1961

to 2021. For this purpose, the study used the gross domestic product as the dependent variable representing

economic growth (Y), while the explanatory variables represented tax reform (X1), population growth (X2),

and foreign direct investment (X3). The data were collected from the World Bank database. The study applied

the ordinary least squares technique, and the obtained results showed that while population growth and foreign

direct investment play a significant role in economic growth, tax reform has a little bite impact on Sudan's

economic growth during the period under study. So that by reforming the tax system, governments can create a

more efficient and fair system that encourages economic growth and investment.

Key-Words: - tax reform, population growth, foreign direct investment, GDP, Economic Activity, and

economic growth

Received: December 18, 2022. Revised: May 13, 2023. Accepted: May 28, 2023. Published: June 6, 2023.

1 Introduction

Tax reform is an important policy tool for

governments to use to promote economic growth.

Tax reform can be used to reduce the burden of

taxation on businesses and individuals, stimulate

investment, and encourage economic activity. It can

also be used to redistribute income and wealth and

provide incentives for certain types of activities. Tax

reform has been a major topic of debate in recent

years, as governments around the world have sought

to adjust their tax systems to promote economic

growth.

Tax reform can have a significant impact on

economic growth, as it can affect the incentives for

businesses and individuals to invest and consume.

research carried out by [1], analyzed the impact of

tax reforms on the economic growth of Nigerians

between 1986 and 2012. The results showed that tax

reforms are positively, and significantly associated

with economic growth. They concluded that

favorable tax reforms improve the government's

ability to generate revenue to engage in socially

desirable activities that lead to absolute and per

capita economic growth. Therefore, [2], used a

cross-generational endogenous growth model and

showed that the homeownership tax in China

increases the accumulation of physical and human

capital and the growth rate of output in the long run,

that tax revenues are used regardless of spending

and government debt, personal income or capital

taxes, or reduce an increase government spending

on education. To ensure progress in the field of

sustainable development and counter threats to

national security, the development of instruments to

balance the ecological, economic, and energy

aspects of the economy is of particular importance.

Moreover, [3], examined the impact of selecting

different functional elements of transportation

taxation on their effectiveness in ensuring national

security. The results obtained did not

allow unequivocally determine the impact of

transport taxes on efficiency.

The current paper aims to explore the impact of

the tax reform on economic growth in Sudan during

WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS

DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.109

Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman,

Houcine Benlaria et al.

E-ISSN: 2224-2899

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the period (1961- 2021). For this purpose, the study

used the gross domestic product as a dependent

variable to represent economic growth (Y). Tax

reform (X1), population growth (X2), and foreign

direct investment (X3) represent explanatory

variables. The study applied the ordinary least

square technique to data collected from the World

Bank database.

The rest of the paper is organized as follows:

section two reviews the literature. Section three

presents the methodology and model specification.

Results discussion and conclusion provide in

sections four and five, respectively.

2 Literature Review

Tax reform is a broad term that encompasses a

variety of changes to taxation systems, including

changes in rates, exemptions, deductions, credits,

and other features. Tax reforms can be designed to

increase revenue or reduce government spending,

but they can also affect economic growth. For

example, reducing marginal tax rates can encourage

investment and entrepreneurship by providing

incentives for individuals to invest in productive

activities. Similarly, eliminating certain deductions

or credits can reduce distortions in the economy and

lead to more efficient resource allocation. The

empirical evidence on the impact of tax reform on

economic growth is mixed. Studies from developed

countries generally find that reductions in marginal

tax rates are associated with higher levels of

economic growth, [4], [5]. However, these results

are not universal; some studies found no significant

effect, [6].

In developing countries, some studies suggested

that reductions in marginal tax rates may have a

positive effect on economic growth, [7]. In [8],

author described an economy with overlapping

generations, endogenous growth, and an unfunded

pension system financed by capital and labor

income taxes. The study found that a rise in worker

income and capital taxation leads to a decline in the

elderly labor supply. The result suggested that,

under some circumstances, a capital income tax and

growth have an inverted U-shaped connection.

Although, it is widely believed that capital should

not be taxed in the long run. In addition to

examining the direct effects of tax reforms on

economic growth, it is also important to consider

their indirect effects. For example, reducing taxes

may lead to increased government spending which

could have a positive effect on economic growth,

[9]. Similarly, reducing taxes may lead to increased

investment which could also have a positive effect,

[4]. Considering India's experience of economic

growth, [10], analyzed annual government revenue,

development, and gross domestic product data from

1990 to 2017. The study revealed a positive

association between tax revenues and GDP; a

relationship was also found between tax revenues

and development costs. They concluded that to

increase GDP and growth, it is necessary to

accelerate spending on the development of

investment projects. Government revenue is the

main source of funding for the public.

The authors in [11], determined the influence of

tax revenues on economic growth in Nigeria. They

said tax revenue didn't matter for Nigeria's inflation

rate and interest rate at a significant level of 5%.

Given the favorable relationship between taxes on

oil profits and economic development, they

recommended that the federal government support

the management of public finances, promote audit

and transparency measures, streamline tax

administration, and fight tax evasion. It is tough to

predict how tax reform will affect economic

development because of several issues. First, it is

difficult to isolate the effects of any particular policy

change from other factors that may be influencing

economic performance at any given time. Second,

many policies are implemented as part of the

broader package which makes it difficult to isolate

their individual effects, [6]. Thirdly, there may be

lags between policy implementation and its effects

which further complicates the analysis, [9].

Empirically, [12], analyzed the effect of tax reforms

on income distribution in developing countries.

They applied the local basic method to a new

database, tax reform, and narrative database

covering 45 emerging and low-income countries.

The results revealed that Personal income reform

reduced the disposable Gini and increase the bottom

income share. In the same regard, [13], noted that

taxation has four main functions: revenue,

redistribution, revaluation, and representation.

According to different theories and empirical

evidence, the issue of population and economic

growth is controversial. Therefore, [14], analyzed

the impact of population growth on economic

growth in the Ethiopian economy. They used ARDL

methods, whose empirical results showed that

population growth, export growth, and import

growth had significant positive effects on Ethiopia's

economic growth in both the short and long term.

Furthermore, [15], analyzed the impact of

population growth rate, economic growth and index

of human development, distribution of income, and

rate of unemployment on poverty in all provinces of

Indonesia. They found that population growth rate,

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Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman,

Houcine Benlaria et al.

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economic growth, human development index,

income distribution, and unemployment rate

affected poverty in all provinces of Indonesia

simultaneously. Moreover, [16], conducted a sizable

study to specifically investigate the relationship

between urban population growth and GDP in

impacting (ULE) for various areas, degrees of

economic development, and governmental

structures in more than 300 cities. They

demonstrated that, between 1970 and 2014,

population growth rather than GDP consistently

served as the primary predictor of (ULE). Thus,

[17], discussed the causal relationship between

foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic

growth in Kenya between 1980 and 2018. To solve

the problem of omitted variables, two variables,

namely money supply, and trade, were examined as

intermittent variables, which is a system of

multivariate equations of Granger causality.

Accordingly, [18], argued the relationship between

FDI and economic development in host countries.

They examined the non-linear link between

economic growth, foreign direct investment,

domestic investment, and financial development.

They used the cointegration technique (NARDL).

The results showed that the positive effects of FDI

and ID are more significant than the negative effects

and have a non-linear direction. Similarly, [19],

suggested that the tax burden in the future will have

to fall increasingly on labor as the less mobile factor

of production.

Sudan is a country located in Africa Continental

that has been plagued by civil war and economic

instability for many years. Despite this, the

economy of Sudan has seen some improvement in

recent years, due to several factors. The primary

driver of Sudan’s economic growth has been the oil

sector. Oil production in Sudan began in the late

1990s and has since become the country’s primary

source of revenue, [20]. In 2018, oil accounted for

nearly 70% of Sudan’s total exports and more than

50% of its GDP. This has helped to stabilize the

economy and reduce poverty levels. In addition to

oil, agriculture is another important sector of the

Sudanese economy. Agriculture accounts for around

20% of the GDP and employs approximately 40%

of the population, [21]. The main crops grown in

Sudan are sorghum, millet, wheat, cotton, sesame,

peanuts, gum Arabic, and sugarcane. The

government is also investing heavily in

infrastructure projects such as roads, railways, and

ports which will help to improve connectivity

between different parts of the country and increase

access to markets for agricultural products. This

should help to further boost economic growth in the

future. Sudan also has a large informal economy

which accounts for around 40% of the GDP. This

includes small-scale trading, subsistence farming,

and informal services such as transportation or

construction work. The informal sector provides

employment opportunities for many people who

would otherwise be unemployed or underemployed

due to a lack of formal job opportunities. Despite

these positive developments, there are still many

challenges facing Sudan’s economy including high

levels of inflation (currently at over 60%), high

unemployment (estimated at around 25%), and a

large public debt (estimated at over $50 billion).

Generally, tax reform policies can have a

significant impact on economic growth in less

developed countries. Tax reform can help to create

an environment that encourages investment and

entrepreneurship, which are essential for economic

growth. Tax reform can also help to reduce the

burden of taxation on businesses, allowing them to

reinvest their profits into expanding their operations

and creating new jobs.

3 The Model and Methodology

In this section, we specify the model and

methodology. Our model takes the following form:

        󰇛󰇜

Fi  , i= 1,2, 3 (2)

where:

Y = Economic Growth (measured by GDP

Growth).

X1 = is a dummy variable that takes on a value

of 1 if tax reform has been implemented and 0

otherwise.

X2 = Population Growth (annual %).

X3 = Foreign direct investment, net inflows (%

of GDP)

β1, β2, and β3 are parameters to be estimated.

ε = an error term.

Equation (1) supposes that (tax reform, population

growth, and foreign direct investment) had a

positive impact on economic growth.

According to economic theory, tax reform

policies can have a significant impact on economic

growth in less developed countries. Tax reform can

help to create an environment that encourages

investment and entrepreneurship, which are

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DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.109

Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman,

Houcine Benlaria et al.

E-ISSN: 2224-2899

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Volume 20, 2023

essential for economic growth. It can also help to

reduce the burden of taxation on businesses,

allowing them to reinvest their profits into

expanding their operations and creating new jobs.

likewise, population growth and foreign direct

investment accelerate the growth of the economy

based on the economic literature. Table 1 shows the

secondary data of the study which was collected

from World Bank data (in millions $). Because the

effect of economic growth policy may take time to

materialize, the dependent variable will estimate

with one period lag (lnY).

The above table includes the study variables,

namely the growth rate of the gross domestic

product as a dependent variable, and the

independent variables represented in tax reform,

population growth rate, and foreign direct

investment. Where the logarithmic GDP growth rate

was equal to 1.56, the tax reform average was 0.18,

while the average population growth and the

average foreign direct investment indicated 2.76 and

1.56, respectively. The data were collected from the

World Bank database for the period from 1961-

2021.

4 Results and Discussion

The study applied the OLS technique to the data

covering the period (1961- 2021) on the above-

mentioned variables, we estimate equation (1). The

regression results are given in Table 2 and Table 3

below, where the estimated equation given in

equation (3). Based on the above Table 2 and

Table 3, the following equation represents

regression variables:

LNY = -0.420 X1 + 0.482 X2 + 0.125 X3 (3)

= 0.74 DW = 1.38

Table 1. Economic Growth (Y), Tax Reform (X1),

Population Growth (X2), and Foreign Direct

Investment (X3) in Sudan (1961-2021).

Year

Ln Y

1961

0.02

8.54

2.97

-3.8

1962

6.92

1.59

3.03

1.93

1963

-2.85

4.71

3.05

1964

-1.12

3.91

3.15

1965

6.78

-2.39

3.2

1.91

1966

-3.58

6.4

3.06

1967

1.42

6.76

3.01

0.35

1968

1.96

2.37

3.04

0.67

1969

1.39

8.61

3.03

0.33

1970

5.93

7.32

3.05

1.78

1971

2.25

6.56

3.17

0.81

1972

-5.07

14.31

3.27

1973

0.63

23.15

3.36

-0.46

1974

11.45

15.44

3.79

2.44

1975

15.71

5.28

4.13

2.75

1976

16.67

6.87

4.13

2.81

1977

6.22

17.4

4.19

1.83

1978

-5.93

24.91

4.26

1979

-5.02

23.97

4.27

1980

1.52

22.03

4.29

0.42

1981

7.44

24.98

4.29

2.01

1982

5.96

30.59

4.08

1.78

1983

2.06

26.06

3.28

0.72

1984

-5.01

33.64

2.28

1985

-6.28

46.17

1.82

1986

5.41

28.64

1.88

1.69

1987

14.22

25.89

1.71

2.65

1988

-0.33

78.86

1.1

1989

8.93

36.74

1.29

2.19

1990

-5.47

66.24

1.78

1991

7.51

88.77

1.71

2.02

1992

6.58

109.23

1.51

1.88

1993

4.57

97.49

1.74

1.52

1994

1.01

159.27

2.41

0.01

1995

104.56

2.55

1.79

1996

5.92

32.56

2.42

1.78

1997

18.31

37.92

2.45

2.91

1998

4.31

17.66

2.32

1.46

1999

3.1

15.82

2.39

1.13

2000

6.35

9.85

2.56

1.85

2001

6.5

21.13

2.44

1.87

2002

6.01

10.8

2.29

1.79

2003

6.29

9.8

2.22

1.84

2004

5.14

17.27

2.25

1.64

2005

5.64

18.05

2.43

1.73

2006

6.53

7.65

2.65

1.88

2007

5.74

15.31

2.79

1.75

2008

3.85

8.89

2.76

1.35

2009

-2.77

1.86

2.72

2010

3.86

22.67

2.37

1.35

2011

-3.21

26.33

1.99

2012

-17

30.13

2.13

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2013

1.96

36.43

2.34

0.67

2014

4.66

34.07

2.77

1.54

2015

1.91

14.02

3.11

0.65

2016

3.47

20.69

3.11

1.24

2017

0.71

34.62

3.25

-0.34

2018

-2.68

55.98

3.19

2019

-2.18

51.98

2.89

2020

-3.63

115.65

2.76

2021

-1.87

235.52

2.7

Equation three is statistically significant at 0.05

level as indicated by F statistics (32.274). Value of

the suggests that 74% of the variation in

economic growth is explained by variations in

variables of tax reform, population growth, and

foreign direct investment.

The statistic of DW indicates the absence of

serial correlation in the model at 0.05 level. The

expected sign of tax reform is negative and this

means that tax reform policy plays lite bite role to

enhance economic growth in Sudan during the

period (1961-2021). Meanwhile, reforming

taxation can help to reduce income inequality

by ensuring that everyone pays their fair share

of tax. Thus, tax reform is an essential tool for

promoting economic growth and ensuring that

the benefits of that growth are shared fairly

among all members of society. These results

differed from what was mentioned by [11], [7], [22].

So that tax reform can also reduce the cost of doing

business in a country, making it more attractive for

foreign investors and businesses.

The expected signs of population growth and

foreign direct investment are positive as the study

hypothesized. This means that as the population

grows, there is an increased demand for goods and

services, which can lead to increased economic

activity, on the other hand, rapid population growth

can also put a strain on resources and infrastructure,

leading to higher costs of living and slower

economic growth. This finding is similar to what

was mentioned by [14], [16].

Foreign direct investment has a positive effect

on economic growth as reported in equation (3). So

that it increases the productivity of domestic firms,

creating new jobs, and increasing the demand for

local goods and services. in Sudan during the period

(1961- 2021). Our findings are similar to those of,

[17], [18].

The economic growth of less developed nations

in general and Sudan's economy particularly can be

significantly impacted by tax reform, population

growth, and foreign direct investment. Tax reform

can assist in earning more money for the

government, which can then be spent on promoting

social and infrastructure initiatives that stimulate the

economy. Foreign direct investment can be attracted

by economic growth itself, and new capital and

technology can be introduced to boost and increase

productivity and generate jobs. Foreign direct

investment can also result in knowledge and skills

transfer that can encourage the growth of the

regional industry. Overall, these variables can work

together to create a virtuous cycle of economic

growth in LDCs that helps to lift people out of

poverty and improve their standard of living.

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5 Conclusion

This study looks at how tax reform affected the

Republic of Sudan's economy during the period

(1961-2021). In this regard, the study examined data

collected from the World Bank for research

variables (tax reform, population growth, FDI, and

economic growth). The findings revealed that:

tax reform policy plays lite bite role to enhance

economic growth in Sudan during the period (1961-

2021). Tax reform policies are likely to have a

significant impact on fostering economic growth in

less developed nations. However, any reforms must

be accompanied by other measures such as

improved access to finance and better governance

structures for them to have a lasting impact on

economic development.

Population growth impacts positively economic

growth, so as the population grows there is an

increased demand for goods and services.

The FDI had a beneficial effect on the economy by

boosting domestic companies' productivity,

generating new jobs, and raising demand for

regional goods and services.

The study concluded that tax reform can affect

the level of economic growth in Sudan. Foreign

direct investment can also lead to increased

economic growth, as it brings capital into the

country that can be used for business expansion and

job creation. Population growth can also lead to

increased economic growth as more people enter the

workforce and consume goods and services. Hence

all of these factors together contribute to a country’s

overall economic performance.

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Appendices

Appendix (1): Coefficients

Model

Un-

standardized

Coefficients

Standardized

Coefficients

Sig.

Std.

Error

Beta

-.420

.400

-.104

-1.051

.301

.482

.065

.795

7.377

.000

.125

.081

.169

1.537

.134

a. Dependent Variable: logy

b. Linear Regression through the Origin

Appendix (2): Correlations

logy

Std. Cross-

product

logy

1.000

.286

.848

.568

.286

1.000

.397

.441

.848

.397

1.000

.560

.568

.441

.560

1.000

Sig. (1-

tailed)

logy

.043

.000

.043

.007

.003

.000

.007

.000

.003

.000

logy

Contribution of Individual Authors to the

Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting

Policy)

The authors equally contributed in the present

research, at all stages from the formulation of the

problem to the final findings and solution.

Sources of Funding for Research Presented in a

Scientific Article or Scientific Article Itself

No funding was received for conducting this study.

Conflict of Interest

The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0

(Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0)

This article is published under the terms of the

Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en

_US

WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS

DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.109

Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman,

Houcine Benlaria et al.

E-ISSN: 2224-2899

1243

Volume 20, 2023