Determinants of Inclusive Economic Growth in Latin America
HAROLD ANGULO-BUSTINZA1, WILMER FLOREZ-GARCIA2,
VALENTÍN CALDERON-CONTRERAS3, DAGOBERTO PEÑA-COBEÑAS4,
MADELEY BARRIENTOS-MOSCOSO5, VALERIA ZEBALLOS-PONCE6
1Professional Academic School of Administration and International Business,
Continental University,
PERU
2Professional School of Administrative Sciences,
National University of San Antonio Abad of Cusco,
PERU
3Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences,
ESAN University,
PERU
4Faculty of Economics,
National University of Piura,
PERU
5Professional Academic School of Economics,
Continental University,
PERU
6School of Administration and International Business,
La Salle University,
PERU
Abstract: - The work aims to identify the determinants that influence inclusive economic growth in Latin
America. The study’s methodology is quantitative with a nonexperimental design, for whose effect analysis
was developed through a panel data model to identify the determinant variables of inclusive economic growth.
Annual data of the main macroeconomic and social variables were used for a sample of 14 Latin American
countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico,
Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay); the study horizon comprises 25 years, between 1995 and 2019. The
following variables were found to have a direct influence on inclusive economic growth: public spending and
international trade; the study also showed that inflation, unemployment, and the presence of crises have a
negative impact on inclusive economic growth. Moreover, an additional public expenditure of 1% implies an
increase of 0.100% in inclusive economic growth, and for each positive variation of 1% in international trade,
inclusive economic growth responds with an increase of 0.144%.
Key-Words: - Inclusive economic growth; public spending, international trade, inflation, unemployment, Gini
index
Received: November 5, 2022. Revised: April 17, 2023. Accepted: May 9, 2023. Published: May 19, 2023.
1 Introduction
Inclusive economic growth is a definition
introduced in 2000 by Kakwani & Pernia, [1], to
refer to growth that favors the most vulnerable by
enabling them to participate actively in economic
activity and benefit significantly from it; thus, no
one is deprived of minimum core resources. The
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
mentions that economic growth is essential to
increase the income of people living in poverty,
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Harold Angulo-Bustinza, Wilmer Florez-Garcia,
Valentín Calderon-Contreras,
Dagoberto Peña-Cobeñas,
Madeley Barrientos-Moscoso, Valeria Zeballos-Ponce
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especially in developing countries, and more
resources need to be made available so they can be
distributed equitably and fairly to expand
opportunities for future generations, [2]. In contrast,
Jalles & Mello, [3], consider that although economic
growth brings prosperity, the benefits are not always
evenly distributed in society; in this line, the authors
exemplify the experience of Latin America, which,
although it has maintained steady growth between
1990 and 2000, this did not imply an improvement
in income distribution in the region. According to
UNDP, [4], Latin America is in a double
development trap, noting that the region maintains
low economic growth and persistently high rates of
inequality; for instance, this region has the highest
rates of inequality worldwide. According to Chancel
& Piketty, [5], between the years 1980 and 2020, a
growing behavior of inequality existed in the world;
this finding derives from the estimation of
inequality using the income ratios of the percentiles
and deciles of the population. The most important
data on inequality worldwide is the one gathered
and compiled by Piketty and his collaborators, [6],
published in the World Inequality Database (WID),
describing the participation of 1% and 10% of the
population with higher incomes as well as the
participation of 50% of the population with lower
incomes, for more than 70 countries.
Table 1 shows the evolution, between 2000 and
2021, of the national per capita GDP and the income
distribution for the top 1%, 10%, and 50% lower of
the population of the continents of Africa, Asia,
Europe, North America, and Latin America. In
2021, 25.2% of the income generated in Latin
America accounted for 1% of the population with
the highest income (Top 1%), compared with 21.5%
in 2000; that is to say, an increase of 3.7 percentage
units is appreciated. On the other hand, it can be
seen that the 10% of the population with higher
incomes (Top 10%) of Latin America absorbed
58.5% of the income generated in 2021, which was
a nearly identical percentage to the year 2000.
Likewise, in 2021, 8.8% of the income generated in
Latin America corresponds to 50% of the population
with the lowest income (50% lower); an increase of
0.5 percentage units can be seen concerning the year
2000. It is essential to note that, during the analysis
period, per capita GDP in Latin America rose
significantly, from US$4,427 in 2000 to US$7,820
in 2021; however, in this period, 1% of the
population with the highest income in Latin
America increased their participation to 25.2% in
the income distribution, a level relatively higher
than the rest of continents, [7].
Table 1. Distribution of income per capita, Top 1%,
Top 10%, and bottom 50% by continent.
Región
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Income per capita
Africa
900
1,330
2,029
2,059
1,849
Asia
2,654
3,249
5,124
6,214
7,305
Europe
13,492
22,345
27,383
26,025
28,281
North America
28,313
34,659
38,647
43,699
47,442
Latin America
4,427
5,072
8,919
8,717
6,828
Top 1%
Africa
20.4%
20.4%
20.1%
20.2%
21.1%
Asia
22.4%
22.5%
20.7%
19.5%
18.8%
Europe
10.9%
11.7%
11.5%
11.8%
11.7%
North America
17.3%
18.0%
17.8%
18.9%
19.0%
Latin America
21.5%
22.7%
24.5%
25.3%
25.1%
Top 10%
Africa
56.4%
56.3%
55.9%
54.9%
55.0%
Asia
54.6%
54.6%
52.4%
51.2%
50.5%
Europe
35.6%
36.2%
35.8%
36.3%
35.8%
North America
42.8%
43.6%
43.8%
45.6%
45.7%
Latin America
58.5%
58.8%
59.5%
58.9%
58.4%
50% Lower
Africa
7.7%
7.8%
8.0%
8.5%
8.6%
Asia
10.7%
9.8%
10.0%
10.1%
10.2%
Europe
17.4%
17.6%
18.2%
18.3%
18.9%
North America
15.1%
14.5%
14.0%
13.4%
13.7%
Latin America
8.3%
8.5%
8.4%
8.6%
8.8%
Note. Based on data from the World Inequality Database
(2022).
Table 2 shows that, between 2000 and 2020,
Ecuador and El Salvador recorded the most
significant reductions in Latin America in the
concentration of income by 1% of the highest-
income population, from 19.7% to 13.7% and from
17.1% to 14.5%, respectively; on the other hand,
Mexico and Chile showed an increase in income
distribution in the same period, from 18.3% to
28.4% and from 25.1% to 27.1% respectively.
Furthermore, the situation improved principally for
50% of the lower-income population of Ecuador and
El Salvador, going from a share of 11.8% to 15%
and from 8.8% to 11.7% between 2000 and 2020.
The analysis shows that the lower 50% of the
population of Ecuador concentrates 15% of the
income distribution share; that is, the largest in the
region; unlike Mexico, where the lower 50% of its
population accumulates 8.4% of that country’s
income, the lowest share in Latin America.
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Table 2. Distribution of income per capita, Top 1%,
Top 10%, and bottom 50% by Latin American
country.
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Income per capita
Bolivia
998
1,034
1,955
3,036
3,133
Brazil
3,750
4,790
11,286
8,814
6,797
Chile
5,075
7,599
12,808
13,574
13,232
Colombia
2,520
3,414
6,337
6,176
5,335
Ecuador
1,445
3,002
4,634
6,124
5,600
El Salvador
2,002
2,429
2,983
3,706
3,799
Mexico
7,158
8,278
9,271
9,617
8,329
Peru
1,956
2,729
5,082
6,229
6,127
Top 1%
Bolivia
19.4%
20.7%
20.7%
21.8%
20.8%
Brazil
24.5%
25.3%
28.0%
25.2%
25.7%
Chile
25.1%
27.6%
26.0%
27.1%
27.1%
Colombia
19.4%
19.2%
19.0%
18.6%
19.9%
Ecuador
19.7%
17.9%
21.5%
17.3%
13.7%
El Salvador
17.1%
20.1%
13.9%
18.5%
14.5%
Mexico
18.3%
21.1%
25.6%
31.5%
28.4%
Peru
19.9%
28.0%
24.4%
24.8%
21.2%
Top 10%
Bolivia
53.8%
54.6%
54.0%
53.2%
51.8%
Brazil
59.9%
59.9%
61.2%
60.5%
59.8%
Chile
60.4%
62.8%
64.5%
63.9%
62.7%
Colombia
56.6%
55.7%
56.1%
53.4%
54.7%
Ecuador
54.0%
50.5%
50.9%
45.6%
41.6%
El Salvador
50.6%
51.9%
46.8%
48.9%
43.2%
Mexico
55.7%
58.7%
60.9%
62.1%
61.1%
Peru
54.2%
62.1%
57.6%
57.3%
54.0%
50% Lower
Bolivia
10.5%
10.7%
11.0%
11.8%
12.1%
Brazil
10.1%
10.2%
10.2%
10.5%
9.8%
Chile
8.9%
8.6%
8.0%
8.6%
9.2%
Colombia
8.5%
9.6%
8.9%
10.4%
9.9%
Ecuador
11.8%
12.7%
12.2%
14.7%
15.0%
El Salvador
8.8%
8.4%
10.5%
10.2%
11.7%
Mexico
8.4%
8.4%
7.7%
7.8%
8.4%
Peru
8.6%
6.9%
9.1%
9.4%
10.4%
Note. Based on data from the World Inequality Database
(2022).
For the case of the poverty gap at $1.90 per day,
according to the World Bank, the Latin American
countries with the most significant reduction in the
poverty gap between 2000 and 2020 were Bolivia,
which went from 17.5% to 1.5%, followed by
Ecuador which did the same by going from 11.7%
to 2.1% at the end of 2020, [8].
The Economic Commission for Latin America
(ECLAC) mentions that inequality is reflected in
different dimensions, from income distribution to
access to essential services and social protection,
[9]. However, of all dimensions, income distribution
is considered the most relevant since the income
level would allow access to the different goods and
services necessary to ensure opportunities for the
development of people, [10].
Following the pandemic unleashed by the
SARS-CoV-2 virus, the world economy was
affected in different magnitudes in each country,
causing inequalities to become more evident,
especially in Latin America, a region that makes
various efforts to close the gaps in its societies;
likewise, although in 2020 job losses around the
world exceeded 140 million, there was a growth
mainly in stock markets, which allowed global
wealth to increase by 7.4%; however, this increase
was heterogeneous, that is, while the United States
and Canada grew by 12.4%, Latin America and the
Caribbean region decreased by 11.4%, which
aggravated the already existing inequality between
countries, as well as within each of them, [11].
This paper studies the factors that influence
inclusive economic growth in Latin America in the
period 1995 - 2019, for whose effect analysis was
developed through a panel data model to identify the
determinant variables of inclusive economic growth,
as suggested by the studies of Anand et al., [12], and
Aoyagi & Ganelli, [13], who measure inclusive
growth by considering changes in income
distribution and growth. In addition, economic and
structural policy variables are included since the
background review shows that structural reforms
promote greater trade and lower unemployment,
which are determinants of inclusive development,
[13].
The purpose of this study is the analysis of the
economic policy of Latin America to develop future
policies to promote growth in the region and allow
shared well-being in favor of society.
1.1 Inclusive Growth in Latin America
The concept of inclusive growth is broad and can be
interpreted differently, [14]. For example, Mitra &
Das, [15], define inclusive growth as sustainable
economic progress through employment generation,
social protection, and public infrastructure
development from the financial, environmental, and
participatory scopes. For its part, Arandara &
Gunasekera, [16], mention that inclusive growth
means expanding the economy and providing
equitable conditions for investment, which would
generate better employment opportunities. Also,
according to Sun, Liu & Tang, [17], inclusive
growth is seen as a concept that seeks to ameliorate
people’s lives, alleviating the problems of growing
income inequality and extreme poverty worldwide.
In addition to the above, Ianchovichina &
Lundstrom, [18], argued that the analysis of
inclusive growth in a country is distinguished by its
rate and pattern of growth since, while a rapid rate
of growth is needed to reduce poverty, it must
encompass all sectors of society to be sustainable in
the long term. Similarly, Varona & Gonzales, [19],
argue that the level of gross domestic product per
capita and the slow and unsustainable economic
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growth over time of the Peruvian economy has not
been able to reverse the distribution of income;
similarly, to be an improvement in economic growth
and the trend towards equal per capita income, the
investment must be made in human capital, thus
achieving sustainable human development over
time.
Below is a general view of trends in poverty,
inequality, and environmental factors in Latin
America, which demonstrate that, despite the
economic growth seen over the years, and the
reduction of poverty, inequality has not improved.
1.1.1 Socio-economic and Environmental
Situation in Latin America
1.1.1.1 Poverty and Multidimensional Poverty
According to the World Bank, [20], countries that
apply pro-business regulations have lower poverty
rates, as this promotes employment. In low-income
countries and rural areas, agriculture tends to be the
main economic sector, being that in 2017 it
represented 68% of employment in these
economies; in addition, it is mentioned that poverty
is a dynamic phenomenon, being that people who
manage to live on USD 6 a day, which is slightly
above the poverty line, are 40% likely to become
poor again. Informality or unprotected low-
productivity jobs make it harder for people to escape
poverty or not fall into it. Along these lines, Deaton,
[21], affirms that poverty has not improved by
comparison with the growth of countries, stating
that there is an inconsistency in the data available on
poverty and reality, as many wealthy families do not
generally participate in the surveys that are
conducted, so the data is underestimated. Moreover,
according to Drobotya et al., [22], economic growth
and distributive and proactive fiscal policies are
necessary to overcome poverty in Latin America.
Thus, Figure 1 shows the evolution of poverty
according to the poverty incidence rate to 1.90
dollars per day (% of the population) between 1990
and 2019 for the regions of Europe and Central
Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Middle
East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and
Latin America and the Caribbean. It can be seen that
East Asia and the Pacific is the region that has best
managed to reduce their poverty levels. At the same
time, Latin America did the same, reducing the
poverty incidence rate from 15.2% in 1990 to 3.7%
in 2019.
Fig. 1: Incidence of poverty at $1.90 per day per
continent (% of the population).
Note. Based on data from the World Bank (2022)
Likewise, between 2000 and 2020, the evolution
of the poverty level of the Latin American
population, which lives below the international
poverty line, presents a downward trend. In this
regard, it can be seen that, in the year 2000, Bolivia
and Ecuador had the highest levels of poverty,
reaching values above 28%; however, in the year
2020, both countries managed to reduce their
poverty levels to 4.4% and 6.5%, respectively. It
should be noted that Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay
are the countries that, by 2020, maintain poverty
levels below 1%, [8].
The University of Oxford and UNDP developed
the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) in
2010 since the way poverty is measured based
solely on monetary conditions is inefficient in
capturing reality, [23]. Thus, over time, the
traditional concept of poverty was abandoned in
favor of a multidimensional analysis, a much
broader view of its meaning based on the goods and
services that human beings acquire in the market
and the various social deprivations. Thus, this new
concept, incorporating more explanatory variables,
helps better understand poverty [24]. The MPI is
much more complex in that it analyses people’s
poverty from a multidimensional point of view
through 10 indicators: in health, which considers
infant mortality and nutrition; education, which
considers school attendance and years of schooling;
and standard of living, which considers drinking
water, fuel for cooking, sanitation, housing,
electricity, and property, [23]. Medina et al., [25],
mention that the disaggregation by dimensions of
poverty makes it possible to establish different
policy strategies to reduce the lack of economic
well-being and social rights in individuals and their
households. Likewise, their study of Colombian
households shows that the number of household
members, type of employment, and educational
attainment are the main factors that influence
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
% of the population
East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia
Latin America & Caribbean Sub-Saharian Africa
Middle East and North Africa
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household poverty. Moreno & Pinilla-Roncancio,
[26], mention that according to this index, in Latin
America, about 38 million people lived in
multidimensional poverty before the pan-demic, a
figure that represented 7.2% of the population of the
region; this means that approximately 7 out of every
100 Latin Americans experience at least 4 of the 10
hardships measured at once Furthermore, according
to Santos, [27], the multidimensionality in poverty
in the Latin American region highlights the
incidence of the COVID-19 pandemic, as people
living in acute multidimensional poverty represent a
high-risk group for this disease; it is also
challenging for such families to comply with the
health measures imposed by governments; finally,
these prevention measures will have a long-term
impact on various dimensions of poverty; this shows
that the solution to deal with the health, education
and living standards dimensions of the IPM does not
depend solely on monetary transfers.
1.1.1.2 Inclusion, Exclusion, and Inequality
Krasota & Melnyk, [28], claim that inequality has
always existed in societies; and that, along with
development, inequality has been responsible for
dividing society into different strata. The authors
demonstrated that socio-economic inequality is an
inherent phenomenon of modern societies, as it
exists in all countries regardless of development. In
addition, they showed that economic growth does
not reduce inequality, but social inclusion can be an
effective means. Kuss et al., [29], affirm that
inclusion focuses on eradicating poverty, reducing
inequalities, and maintaining growth through equal
opportunities for the whole society. Social inclusion
guarantees equal access to social services and
economic resources and the participation of all
members of society in the political, social,
economic, and civic aspects of life, [28].
On the other hand, Wang et al., [30], mention
that social exclusion happens when people are
marginalized from participating in social activities.
Along these lines, Cruz-Saco, [31], mentions that
social exclusion can occur in different aspects of
life, such as having precarious jobs, discrimination
against women or immigrants, marginalization of
Andean communities, etc. In addition, Sen, [32],
argues that social exclusion is a deprivation of
abilities since being excluded limits our
opportunities; for example, not getting the
opportunity to get a job will not allow us to receive
a salary and, therefore, this will lead to other
deprivations leading to greater poverty and what it
entails. Finally, the author adds that the success of
Western countries is because they were able to
avoid certain types of social exclusion, mainly
related to basic education and social opportunities.
For its part, Rodgers, [33], mentions that inequality
is related to wealth and income but also to
differences in status and access to opportunities.
Therefore, unequal societies are more vulnerable to
poverty.
According to the ECLAC, [9], Latin America is
the most unequal region worldwide; this is mainly
due to income inequality, which is an obstacle to
development, social welfare, productivity, and
economic growth. Concerning it, Stiglitz, [34],
mentions that unrestrained economic inequality
weakens economic growth; he continues arguing
that inequality, both in income and wealth, increases
more in crises such as a recession. On the other
hand, however, Stiglitz, [35], argues that increasing
equality would increase consumer demand. For its
part, Banerjee & Duflo, [36], demonstrated that
between expected growth and changes in inequality
exists an "inverted U" relationship, which means
that alterations in inequality, in either direction, are
related to lower growth in the following period; its
result is in line with the hypothesis of Kuznets, [37],
who argued that the increase in per capita income
also causes an increase in income inequality,
however, inequality declines after reaching a certain
level of income. This hypothesis was called the
"Kuznets Curve," an "inverted U" curve that graphs
the nonlinear relationship that exists between per
capita income and income inequality.
Fig. 2: GINI Index in the World
Note. Based on data from World Inequality
Database (2022).
Inequality is commonly measured by the GINI
index, which represents the absence of inequality
with a value of 0 and the maximum inequality with
a value of 1, [10]. Figure 2 shows the evolution of
this index between 2000 and 2020, both for Latin
America and by regions of the world. For Cerezo &
Landa, [38], Latin America is the region with the
greatest inequality worldwide; this is evident in the
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Asia Africa Europe
Latin America Oceania North America
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global analysis of Drobotya et al., [22], who
concluded that the highest levels of the GINI index
are observed in Latin American countries. Also,
there are other indicators, such as the Theil index,
proposed by Henry Theil in 1967, which measures
inequality, having as an advantage that it can be
broken down into subgroups; this is because it takes
the basis of the concept of entropy; also, this index
"complies with the additive decomposition
property," characteristic that differentiates it from
other indices by allowing "to know what percentage
of inequality is explained by the inequality that is
generated between the groups formed and which
one comes from the differences of income within
them,” [39], (p. 18). Finally, Carrazana, Sánchez &
Ávila, [40], conclude that the entropy of Theil
presents desirable characteristics as an indicator of
inequality, among them that it is independent of
population size and scale and can be broken down
into each of its elements. In this line, according to
INEI, [41], Latin American countries have very high
rates of exclusion generated by inequality in income
distribution and poverty; because of this, these
countries are characterized by their disintegrated
and fragmented societies.
1.1.1.3 Environmental Factors
Several studies support the link between
environmental factors and inclusive growth. Along
these lines, for the OECD, [42], acting on climate
change can generate inclusive growth in the short
term, as well as ensure the long-term growth and
well-being of citizens; a low-carbon economy
enables strong growth and prevents climate change
from having a negative impact on the future
economy. Kamah, Riti & Bin, [43], demonstrated
that inclusive growth and environmental quality
have an inverted U-shape relationship, which means
that environmental quality deteriorates at an early
stage of inclusive growth. However, environmental
quality improves as inclusive growth increases after
reaching the threshold point. On the other hand, Ge
& Li, [44], demonstrated that environmental
regulations promote inclusive growth. In addition,
Kouton, [45], analyses the impact of renewable
energy on inclusive growth, explaining that the
consumption of these energies relies on the
Inclusive growth of Africa in a significant and
positive way. Along these lines, Gouvea et al., [46],
mention that one of the most important renewable
energy markets in the world is located in Latin
America thanks to its abundance of geothermal
energy, sun exposure, water resources, wind, and
biomass; however, the region lacks technology and
innovation, preventing adequate growth and
development.
1.1.2 Inclusive Growth
While per capita GDP has increased significantly in
Latin America and the Caribbean, inequality in
income distribution has not improved. In this
respect, for Aoyagi & Ganelli, [13], a situation such
as this is problematic, as inequality weakens growth,
and because poverty reduction would be greater
with more equitable growth; the authors propose
that indifference curves are a way to measure the
inclusive growth of a country, that is, a higher curve
will imply higher average incomes, in this way, if
the curve moves upwards at all points there will be
inclusive growth. However, the degree of inclusive
growth fluctuates depending on higher economic
growth and the variation in income distribution,
representing the equity curve’s slope. Therefore, to
measure inclusive economic growth, Aoyagi &
Ganelli, [13], and Anand et al., [12], use the income
growth measure adjusted for changes in income
inequality; based on this, Kang et al., [47], propose
the calculation of inclusive economic growth as the
difference between real per capita GDP growth and
changes in net GINI.
1.2 Determinants of Inclusive Growth
According to Samuelson & Nordhaus, [48], the
main factor in ensuring the long-term success of the
nations is economic growth, so state policies always
aim at it; they also argue that economic growth
needs 'four wheels': human resources, natural
resources, capital and innovation, and technological
change, adding that the functions of government are
to improve economic efficiency, reduce inequality
and stabilize the economy. Along these lines,
Mendoza, Leyva & Flor, [49], argue that "the action
of the State, through fiscal policy and relative price
policy, also affects income distribution" (p. 29). In
addition, Aoyagi & Ganelli, [13], state that while
few researchers focus on inclusive growth, there are
studies that have found that monetary, fiscal, and
structural policy influence the expansion of growth
benefits. The authors also concluded that re-
distributive fiscal policy, monetary policy, efficient
labor market, and industrial competitiveness policies
would promote inclusive growth.
1.2.1 Fiscal, Monetary, and Structural Policy
According to Bastagli et al., [50], fiscal policy has
played a crucial role in reducing inequality in
developed economies, especially those with high
initial inequality before taxes and transfers; most of
this redistributive impact was achieved through
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budget spending, mainly by transfers, not subject to
resource verification, although taxes are also
important; however, the author adds that low levels
of tax collection and transfers constrain the
redistributive impact of the Fiscal policy in
developing economies. For its part, Stiglitz, [34],
states that a better-regulated financial system and
more progressive taxes are needed to achieve
greater equity and strengthen economic
performance. Along these lines, Lee, Park & Lee,
[51], point out that fiscal policy is an effective tool
to mitigate the impacts of a possible economic
crisis, which mainly tends to affect the poor and
disadvantaged who do not have the resources to deal
with these crises. In addition, according to Jalles &
Melo, [3], the most important instruments of income
redistribution in advanced economies are tax benefit
systems; however, in developing countries, these
systems are less developed, and therefore, they have
a lower redistribution, mainly due to a lower ratio
between tax revenues and GDP. Also, there is
greater dependence on indirect taxes and less
comprehensive social safety nets. Nevertheless,
many economies have used tax policies to achieve
inclusive growth and, through them, have achieved
distributive and progressive effects, [52]. An
important piece of evidence about the influence of
Fiscal Policy in reducing inequality in Latin
America was the studies by Fuentes & Clifton, [53],
who analyzed the effects of nine fiscal policy
instruments on income inequality: public
expenditure on education, social security, health,
and housing; and public revenue from personal
income, property, goods and services, international
trade, and social contributions taxes.
In addition, Stiglitz, [34], mentions that there
are different ways in which inequality damages the
economy, mainly considering that high inequality
weakens aggregate demand; adding that this
situation is aggravated by the deficient actions of the
monetary authorities in dealing with weak demand;
a hyper-expansive monetary policy due to the
reduction of interest rates and the relaxation of
regulations, feeds a bubble of asset prices too easily
and the bursting of it leads to a recession. Hence, it
concludes that only the increase in debt can sustain
consumption. Moreover, according to Coibion et al.,
[54], a contractive monetary policy generates
persistent effects on inequality, causing inequality in
wages, consumption, and total spending among
households. In this line, Furceri et al., [55], found
that an expansive monetary policy decreases income
inequality. On the contrary, a contractive monetary
policy increases it, its impact being much greater
than the expansive policy’s. However, expansionary
monetary policy generates inflation and price
instability, so many central banks aim to achieve
price stability through inflation targets, [56].
On the other hand, according to Abdel-Kader,
[57], monetary and fiscal policies only consider
economic measures in the short term; however, the
economic problem is much more complex
considering a long-term time horizon. In that sense,
for Aoyagi & Ganelli, [13], long-term structural
policies are needed, also as traditional fiscal and
monetary policies, in order to achieve inclusive
growth. Along these lines, structural policies
revolve around six aspects: price controls, public
finance management, the financial sector, public
sector enterprises, social safety nets, and the labor
market, [57].
Different countries have sought to improve the
targeting of programs to address inequality, such as
introducing benefits that link benefit receipt with
employment, [50]. Furthermore, Fabrizio et al., [58],
mention that different structural reforms have a
certain influence on the distribution of income
through other channels, some of which are of
greater relevance for low-income developing
countries; similarly, in countries with a high
intersectoral productivity gap, poor people working
in low-productivity sectors face difficulties in
moving to higher-productivity industries; on the
other hand, reforms that rise the relative prices of
tradable and non-tradable goods have a potential
significant distributive effect, finally, if financial
access is limited, reforms that reduce borrowing
costs could increase inequality; they also add that
the distributive impact of macro-structural policies
on this type of economy is complex, as it depends
on the specific characteristics of each economy, as
the level of informality or access to financial
services, among others.
According to Konte, Kouamé & Mensah, [59],
when working conditions tend to be flexible in the
face of structural reform encouraging trade
liberalization in developing countries, firms become
labor-intensive. For their part, Khan et al., [60],
affirm that globalization, measured by trade
openness, generates a virtuous circle between the
decrease of structural differences and growth that
enhances the well-being of all people and decreases
inequality.
On the other hand, for Aoyagi & Ganelli, [13],
efficient structural reform reduces the
unemployment rate, which encourages inclusive
growth. Along these lines, Jalles & Melo, [3],
indicate that reforms to improve access to education,
active labor market policies, growth-friendly tax,
and transfer systems tend to improve household
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income distribution. Finally, in their study,
Heshmati et al., [52], consider that the main drivers
of income inequality are international trade policies,
globalization, education, labor market reform, and
technological change, adding that there is no
panacea for achieving inclusive growth.
2 Materials and Methods
The statistical information was obtained from the
World Bank and CEPALSTAT. The frequency is
annual and includes, by data availability, the period
1995-2019. Peru, Mexico, Colombia, and Chile
established the Pacific Alliance in April 2011. This
regional integration mechanism has increased the
real income and trade opening of its members and
other Latin countries, [61]. As a basis for this event,
the analysis is performed in the subperiods 1995-
2010 and 2011-2019. The dependent variable
corresponds to inclusive economic growth (Y),
measured as the difference between real economic
growth (2010=100) and the percentage change in
the net Gini coefficient, and independent variables
including public expenditure (X1), represented by
the percentage change in real public expenditure
(2010=100), inflation (X2) calculated as the
percentage change in the overall degree of the
Consumer Price Index, unemployment (X3)
measured as the percentage of the unemployed labor
force, International trade (X4) as measured by the
percentage change in the sum of imports and
exports, and the presence of a crisis (X5) is
captured, following Machinea, [62], and Ramos et
al., [63], with a dummy variable adopting the value
of one for the years 1995 (tequila crisis), 1998-2003
(Asian crisis, Brazilian crisis, Russian crisis,
Argentine crisis, dot-com crisis, impact of SARS)
and 2008-2010 (global financial crisis). The
indicators used are based on the studies of Aoyagi,
[13], and Kang et al., [47]. Table 3 summarizes the
above.
Table 3. Description and abbreviation of the
variables of the econometric model
2.1 Econometric Strategy
The sample includes 14 Latin countries: Argentina,
Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica,
Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Panama,
Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. To check whether the
difference between the variables analyzed in normal
years and years of crisis is significant, the
nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis test is performed for
two independent samples, whose null hypothesis is
that the median of the variables in both scenarios
coincides. This is after verifying the assumptions of
normality with the Jarque-Bera test and its null
hypothesis that the data come from a normal
distribution; and homoscedasticity with the Bartlett
test, in the presence of normalcy, and Levene, in the
absence of normalcy, under the null hypothesis that
the variance in normal years and years of crisis is
equal (see Table 4). The mean, coefficient of
variation, standard deviation, and Pearson linear
correlation coefficient are then calculated and
interpreted.
Table 4. Probability value of previous tests
(percentage rounded to two decimal places)
Note. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Results from
information from the World Bank and CEPALSTAT.
Based on Aparicio & Márquez, [64], a first
estimated model is pooled:
Yit=α+β1X1it+β2X2it+β3X3it+β4X4it+β5X5it+eit
(1)
The ordinary least squares estimator (βPOLS) of
equation (1) is:
βPOLS=(XTX)IXTY
(2)
Where X is the matrix of explanatory variables (X1,
X2, X3, X4, X5), and Y the vector of the dependent
variable, the superscript T indicates the
transposition and I the inverse.
To control the individual character of each country,
we estimate the random effects model that
represents a different intercept for each country:
Yit=α+ui+β1X1it+β2X2it+β3X3it+β4X4it+β5X5it+eit
(3)
In (3), the intercept is a random variable with a
mean value α and a random deviation ui of that
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mean. Estimation of equation (3) requires the use of
generalized least squares (GLS):
[∑i=1NX*iTVIX*iGLS=[∑i=1NX*iTVIYi]
(4)
Where:
X*i=(d1, d2, …, dN, Xi)
VI=[IT+(EET/T)(ψ-1)]/σ2u
ψ=σ2u/(σ2u+Tσ2α)
d represents the dummy variable by country, IT is
the identity matrix of size T (the horizon), E is the
error matrix, and δTGLS=(u, βT).
To select between (1) and (3), the Lagrange
multiplier test is performed for random effects,
whose null hypothesis establishes that the ui
variance is null, which implies that (1) is better.
A third estimated model is that of fixed effects,
where the intercept of each country is fixed and
captured with a dummy variable (vi):
Yit=vi+β1X1it+β2X2it+β3X3it+β4X4it+β5X5it+eit
(5)
The ordinary least squares estimator (βFOLS) of
equation (5) in deviations from the mean is:
βFOLS=[∑i=1Nt=1T(Xit-XiA)(Xit-
XiA)T]I[∑i=1Nt=1T(Xit-XiA)(Yit-YiA)T]
(6)
Where:
XiA=∑t=1TXit/T
YiA=∑t=1TYit/T
A greater detail of the equations presented can be
reviewed in Hsiao, [65].
The selection between (1) and (5) arises from
the restrictive F test with the null hypothesis that all
dummy variables (vi) are null, which implies that
(1) is better.
In these models, "i" represents the country, "t" is
the year, and "e" is the error. It is projected that:
β1>0, β2<0, β3<0, β4>0, β5<0
Finally, to decide between (3) and (5), the Hausman
test is used, whose null hypothesis is that the
estimators of random effects and fixed effects do not
differ substantially and implies that the random
effects model is more efficient.
The statistical validation of the selected model
consists in determining whether the estimated
parameters are statistically significant individually
(Student t-test, whose null hypothesis is that the
estimated parameter is null in statistical terms) and
if the error meets the assumption of normality
(Jarque-Bera test). In addition, econometric
validation evaluates compliance with
homoscedasticity assumptions (modified Wald test
in the fixed effects model and White test in the
pooled model), not first-order autocorrelation
(Wooldridge test in the fixed effects model and
Durbin-Watson test, in both cases the null
hypothesis is that the errors are independent
concerning the first delay) and contemporary
correlation of the error (Breusch and Pagan test,
whose hypothesis is that errors between countries
are independent of each other), and the low
multicollinearity of explanatory variables (test of the
factor of inflation of the variance, whose null
hypothesis is that the level of correlation between
the explicative variables is low). The tests use a
significance level of 5%, and the correction of
econometric problems is performed with
Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method in the
Newey-West model of fixed effects and standard
errors in the pooled model.
3 Results
For the descriptive analysis of the variables, the
mean and the coefficient of variation (denoted by
CV and calculated as the ratio between the standard
deviation and the average) were used; the latter is
expressed in percentage and measures the variability
of the data: low (CV≤10%), moderate (10% ≤CV
≤33%), excessive but tolerable (33% ≤CV ≤50%)
and excessive (CV>50%). The 1995-2010 and
2011-2019 subperiods registered an average
inclusive economic growth of 2.36% and 2.53%,
respectively, with excessive variability (respective
CVs of 159.93% and 108.21%). However, during
these horizons, average public spending increased
by 0.04% (from 3.42% to 3.46%), and its excessive
variability decreased from 110.30% to 86.53%;
average inflation fell from 8.87% to 5.38%, while
its excessive variability increased (from 119.07% to
131.15%); average unemployment fell from 6.94%
to 5.88%, and its variability became excessive but
tolerable (55.87% versus 43.20%); while
international trade decreased 6.02% (from 9.66% to
3.64%) but not its excessive variability (respective
CV of 152.56% and 301.29%). On the other hand,
between 1995 and 2019, the average inclusive
economic growth was 2.43% (CV=141.85%), the
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average public expenditure was 3.43%
(CV=102.12%), inflation was 7.61% average
(CV=125.93%), unemployment had an average rate
of 6.56% (CV=53.20%) and international trade
recorded an average of 7.49% (CV=184.07%);
excessive variability in all variables (see Table 5).
Table 5. Descriptive statistics of the variables
(percentage rounded to two decimal places)
Note. Results from information from the World Bank
and CEPALSTAT.
Inclusive economic growth has a median of
3.10% in years without crisis compared to 1.43% in
years with crisis (1995, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001,
2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, and 2010); likewise, public
expenditure was 3.36% in years without crisis and
2.56% in years with crisis, unemployment was
5.65% in years without crisis and 5.56% in years
with crisis, international trade was 8.86% in years
without crisis and 4.76% in years with crisis and
inflation was 4.36% in years without crisis and
6.53% in years with crisis. Of these variations, the
only statistically non-significant (p-value=0.20) is
that recorded in unemployment (See Table 6).
Table 6. Median of the variables, 1995-2019
(percentage rounded to two decimal places)
Note: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Results from
information from the World Bank and CEPALSTAT.
To measure the linear association between
inclusive economic growth and the explanatory
variables considered in the research, the Pearson
coefficient was used. Between 1995 and 2010,
public expenditure and international trade are
positively associated with inclusive economic
growth, with respective correlations of 0.30 and
0.75, while the correlation with inflation and
unemployment is negative, with respective values of
-0.17 and -0.21. Regarding the horizon 2011-2019,
inclusive economic growth is positively associated
with public expenditure (correlation of 0.47) and
international trade (correlation of 0.49) but
negatively with inflation (correlation of -0.32) and
unemployment (correlation of -0.40). In addition,
data for the analysis period (1995-2019) indicate
that public spending and international trade have a
positive correlation with inclusive economic growth,
with respective values of 0.34 and 0.67, while
inflation and unemployment are negatively
associated with inclusive economic growth at values
of -0.20 and -0.25, respectively. All correlations are
statistically significant at 1%, and only in the case of
inflation for the 1995-2010 subperiod is 5% (see
Table 7). It should be noted that a significant
correlation does not imply causality but suggests
including the respective variable(s) in the
subsequent regression.
Table 7. Linear correlation between inclusive
economic growth and explanatory variables
Note. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Results from
information from the World Bank and CEPALSTAT.
For the subperiod 1995-2010, the tests of the
Lagrange multiplier (p-value=0.03) and Hausman
(p-value=0.00) indicate that the model includes
fixed effects and the presence of normal problems
(p-value=0.00), first-order autocorrelation (p-
value=0.01), heteroscedasticity (p-value=0.00) and
contemporary correlation (p-value=0.01), is
estimated with the method of Generalized Least
Squares (GLS). For the 2011-2019 sub-period, the
Lagrange multiplier test (p-value=0.17) indicates
that the appropriate model is a pooled,
heteroscedasticity (p-value=0.02) standard Newey-
West errors are used. In the horizon, 1995-2019,
considering the results of the tests of the Lagrange
multiplier (p-value=0.00) and Hausman (p-
value=0.00) corresponds to the use of a model of
fixed effects, which is estimated with Generalized
Least Squares (GLS) because it lacks normality (p-
value=0.00), has first-order autocorrelation (p-
value=0.00), heteroscedasticity (p-value=0.00) and
contemporary correlation (p-value=0.00) as
econometric error problems (see Table 8).
Between 1995-2010, public spending and
international trade favored inclusive economic
growth; for every additional 1% in public spending,
inclusive economic growth increased by 0.072%;
meanwhile, inclusive economic growth responded
positively by 0.161% to a further 1% variation in
international trade. On the other hand, inflation and
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unemployment are adverse factors for inclusive
economic growth, so for every 1% increase in the
overall level of the Consumer Price Index, inclusive
economic growth is reduced by 0.068%, and against
a 1% increase in the unemployed workforce,
inclusive economic growth falls by 0.109%. During
the crisis years (1995, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001,
2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, and 2010), inclusive
economic growth registered a reduction of 0.883%.
On the other hand, between 2011 and 2019,
after the implementation of the Pacific Alliance, the
impact of the explanatory variables remains. In this
sense, an increase of 1% in public spending
conducts to an increase of 0.292% in inclusive
economic growth, and given a positive variation in
international trade by 1%, inclusive economic
growth responds with an increase of 0.108%, which
implies that both variables foster inclusive economic
growth. Concerning inflation, a 1% increase in the
overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) causes a
0.065% drop in inclusive economic growth. In
comparison, if the unemployed workforce increases
by 1%, inclusive economic growth falls by 0.240%.
The results of the study show that the impact of
public spending increased by 0.220%, going from
0.072% between 1995 and 2010 to 0.292% between
the years 2011 to 2019; in contrast, international
trade had an opposite behavior when falling 0.053%
between both horizons, from 0.161% in the period
1995-2010 to 0.108% in the period 2011-2019. As a
result, the negative and significant impact of
inflation increased from -0.068% in the period
1995-2010 to -0.065% in the period 2011-2019,
which represents a decrease of 0.003%; that is,
between the years 2011 and 2019, the impact of
inflation was lower; while the impact of
unemployment increased by 0.131% to go from -
0.109% in the period 1995-2010 to -0.240% in the
period 2011-2019.
Finally, for the period 1995-2019, the results
show that public spending and international trade
promote greater inclusive economic growth. In
particular, an additional public expenditure of 1%
implies an increase of 0.100% in inclusive economic
growth, and for each positive variation of 1% in
international trade, inclusive economic growth
responds with an increase of 0.144%. In addition,
the study suggests that inflation and unemployment
slow inclusive economic growth; thus, the increase
of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 1% causes a
reduction of 0.075% in inclusive economic growth;
furthermore, 1% growth in the unemployment rate
reduces inclusive economic growth by 0.181%.
Regarding the presence of crises, during the study
period, inclusive economic growth registered a
negative and significant variation of 0.606%. With a
p-value below the significance level, all estimated
parameters are statistically significant (see Table 8).
It should be noted that multicollinearity was
presented to a low degree. Although normality is
violated in some horizons, the number of
observations and the central limit theorem guarantee
that the statistical significance of the parameters is
valid. Moreover, the estimated values correspond
only to the average impact recorded in the
respective horizons; it does not imply that changes
in the explanatory variables are automatically
translated into the described impacts today or in the
future.
Table 8. Determinants of inclusive economic growth
(rounded to two decimal places)
Note. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Results from
information from the World Bank and CEPALSTAT
4 Discussion
This study estimates the impact of the determinants
of inclusive economic growth in Latin America
during the horizon 1995-2019. First, it is found a
positive relationship between inclusive economic
growth and public spending, in line with the
outcome of the study by Anand et al., [12], in which
real government spending is a highly significant
variable for advanced economies. Inflation reduces
inclusive economic growth; this implies that
monetary policy has an important role, as
demonstrated by Moosavi & Gharleghi, [56], who
conclude that inflation targets represent a significant
improvement strategy for inclusive economic
growth in southern developing countries. On the
contrary, Abada et al., [66], find that inclusive
economic growth decreases by 13.84% against
additional unemployment of 1%, in line with our
results; to this are added the studies of Cysne &
Turchick, [67], and Aoyagi & Ganelli, [13], The
latter estimates that inclusive economic growth
increases by 0.72% if the unemployment rate is
reduced by 1%. Finally, the research results show
that international trade is a determining factor that
promotes greater inclusive economic growth; these
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results coincide with the outcome of Khan et al.,
[60], who evidenced the positive and significant
impact of trade opening on inclusive economic
trade.
5 Conclusions
This study estimates, using a panel model data of
linear and static type, the method of Generalized
Least Squares (GLS) and Newey-West standard
errors, the impact of a set of variables (public
expenditure, inflation, unemployment, and
international trade) theoretically linked to inclusive
economic growth for 14 Latin American countries,
in the period 1995 to 2019. The results demonstrate
that public spending has a positive and significant
impact (p <0.05) of 0.100% on inclusive economic
growth in the region. Likewise, international trade
presents a statistically significant positive pact (p
<0.05) of 0.144% in inclusive economic growth. On
the contrary, inflation and unemployment have a
negative and significant impact (p <0.05) of -
0.075% and -0.181% on inclusive economic growth.
Finally, regarding the presence of crises, inclusive
economic growth registered a negative and
significant variation (p <0.05) of 0.606% during the
study period. It is concluded that, in Latin America,
the determinants that positively affect inclusive
economic growth are public spending and
international trade; meanwhile, the determinants that
negatively impact inclusive economic growth are
Inflation, unemployment, and the presence of crises.
It is possible to perform this panel data analysis
incorporating as an indicator of inclusive economic
growth the calculation from a social mobility curve,
as do Aoyagi and Ganelli (2015), requesting
information from household surveys or similar
sources in each country.
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Contribution of Individual Authors to the
Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting
Policy)
-Harold Angulo, Wilmer Florez, and Valentin
Calderon were responsible for the methodology.
-Valentin Calderon, Dagoberto Peña, and Madeley
Barrientos were responsible for the formal analysis.
-Harold Angulo, Wilmer Florez, and Valentin
Calderon were responsible for data curation.
-Harold Angulo, Wilmer Florez, Valentin Calderon.
-Dagoberto Peña, Madeley Barrientos, and Valeria
Zeballos were responsible for writing, reviewing,
and editing.
-Harold Angulo, Wilmer Florez, Valentin Calderon.
-Dagoberto Peña, Madeley Barrientos, and Valeria
Zeballos were responsible for visualization.
-Harold Angulo, Wilmer Florez, and Valentin
Calderon were responsible for supervision.
Sources of Funding for Research Presented in a
Scientific Article or Scientific Article Itself
No funding was received for conducting this study.
Conflict of Interest
The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
(Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0)
This article is published under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
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WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.96
Harold Angulo-Bustinza, Wilmer Florez-Garcia,
Valentín Calderon-Contreras,
Dagoberto Peña-Cobeñas,
Madeley Barrientos-Moscoso, Valeria Zeballos-Ponce
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
1073
Volume 20, 2023