Global Challenges and Barriers to Sustainable Economic Growth in the
Agribusiness Sector
RISHAT A. MIGUNOV, ANASTASIA A. SYUTKINA, NATALIA F. ZARUK,
ELENA S. KOLOMEEVA, NATALIA V. ARZAMASTSEVA
Russian State Agrarian University, Moscow Timiryazev Agricultural Academy,
Moscow,
RUSSIA
Abstract: - The paper presents four main megatrends of global economic development: 1) changes in value
chains, 2) development of a new food system model, 3) redistribution of value chains in the agribusiness sector,
4) growing influence of large companies and individual countries on the global agrifood system. The aim of the
paper is to investigate the macroeconomic global and national challenges of agro-industrial development that
affect the sustainable development of the sector. Based on these megatrends and using a dialectical method, the
authors have considered the main global and national challenges in agricultural development. They highlighted
the following: demographic growth and hunger; resource scarcity and the crisis of the AIS 3.0 model; ethical
risks and limitations; natural and climatic changes; recycling, recycling and valorisation of waste; political
instability; challenges of innovative development. It is shown that identification of the main challenges facing
the development of domestic agribusiness sector is the primary basis for the formulation of strategic
development objectives of the agrarian sector. The global challenges identified in the paper represent the basis
for the development of economic policy in the agribusiness sector, including the Russian agrifood policy, the
development of quality formal and informal rules and institutions that support the economic growth of the
agribusiness sector, and also allow risk-oriented approaching to agricultural development in different territories.
Keywords: - Agriculture, economic growth, challenges, risks, institutional environment.
Received: November 29, 2022. Revised: March 26, 2023. Accepted: April 19, 2023. Published: May 5, 2023.
1 Introduction
Current estimates, [1], show that four major
megatrends have emerged in the global
agribusiness sector:
1. Change in value chains: concentration of
value added in science-based sectors:
- increased cost of genetic and breeding process
in crop and livestock production;
- development of digital (IT) and geo-
information technologies;
- emergence of industrial design and
engineering technologies that fundamentally
change the reproduction process.
2. The development of a new food system
model, where the agribusiness sector ceases to be a
separate sector and becomes linked in value chains
to the environmental and natural resources sectors,
the public services market in terms of territorial
connectivity, public welfare, etc. These processes
lead to radical shifts in the structure of employment
and the need for a new model of education and
labor market.
3. Redistribution in value chains due to a
confusion of values and choices such as:
personalization of products and clustering of
consumers; emergence of new production and
distribution models for agricultural products;
growth of new markets in the agribusiness sector:
healthy, nutritious food; organic products; products
with improved and pre-defined properties for a
specific group of consumers or a specific
consumer.
4. The growing influence of large companies
and individual countries on the development of the
global food system the development of global
value chains in the agribusiness sector.
Agrarian trends lead to a new paradigm for the
production of food of natural origin and the
emergence of global challenges for the agro-
industrial sector (AIS).
Current research focuses on the specific
challenges facing agribusiness sector in the green
revolution, [2], in the transition to AIS 4.0, [3], in
digitalisation, [4], in climate change, [5], and
environmental threats, [6]. However, there is a lack
of comprehensive research aimed at examining the
global challenges facing agriculture.
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.85
Rishat A. Migunov, Anastasia A. Syutkina,
Natalia F. Zaruk, Elena S. Kolomeeva,
Natalia V. Arzamastseva
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
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Volume 20, 2023
The aim of the paper is to investigate the
macroeconomic global challenges of agro-
industrial development that affect the sustainable
development of the sector.
2 Methodology
The study is based on the dialectical method, which
seeks to identify cause-effect relationships between
agricultural development and the global challenges
facing its development. Statistical and graphical
methods were also applied in the progress of the
study.
3 Main Part
In the modern mixed economy the market
institutions and feedback mechanisms in agriculture
prove to be unable to provide competitive and
efficient regulation of agrifood market conditions
and sustainable economic growth in the sector.
Specific factors in the development of the world
agricultural market lead to the formation of global
challenges in the development of the industry,
which are simultaneously faced by developed and
developing countries, including Russia.
3.1 Demographic Growth and Hunger
By 2050, the world's population will have increased
by 2.0 billion, approaching 9.7 billion. Nine
countries will account for half of this increase:
India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic
of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt,
and the United States of America (in descending
order of size), [7].
Yet already now (2020), the number of those
who are undernourished has reached 2.37 billion
almost a third of the world's population. In just one
year, the number of undernourished people has
risen by 320 million due to both global warming
and the coronavirus pandemic. There are no signs
of improvement: despite measures taken to fight
hunger, countries are not coping with the unfolding
food crisis, [8].
Three factors have contributed to the sharp
increase in hunger in recent years: climate change,
pandemics, and military conflicts. Moreover,
progress on hunger has not just slowed it has
reversed, [9] (Figure 1).
Fig. 1: Global hunger index in 2021, [10].
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DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.85
Rishat A. Migunov, Anastasia A. Syutkina,
Natalia F. Zaruk, Elena S. Kolomeeva,
Natalia V. Arzamastseva
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All this leads to an increasing problem of
demographic growth of the world population and
threats of increasing hunger in developed and
developing countries, including Russia, [11].
3.2 Resource Scarcity and the Crisis of the
AIS 3.0 Model
The crisis of food production and hunger is also
exacerbated by the scarcity of the planet's
agricultural resources and the exhaustion of the
previous model of scientific and technological
development of the agrarian sphere.
Studies show that by 2030, due to the declining
agro-climatic potential of rural areas, the
exhaustion of the effects of the Green Revolution,
the growth of biosecurity threats, the increasing
problems with food waste, the world will see a
significant increase in demand for
- food by 35%;
- fresh water by 40%;
- energy by 50%, [1].
The scarcity of resources within the planet's
agroclimatic potential and the inability of existing
agro-industrial sector 3.0 technologies to cope with
this deficit are leading to an acceleration in the
development of agrarian R&D activities.
Between 2014 and 2020, investment in agri-
food technology start-ups worldwide increased 8.2-
fold (Figure 2).
Fig. 2: Investment in agri-food technology start-ups 2012-2021, $bn, [12].
However, addressing equitable access to food
diversity regardless of location and seasonality,
ensuring food quality and safety beyond the reach
of conventional agriculture, and minimizing the
losses and environmental impact of the
agribusiness sector remain important challenges to
the sustainable development of global agriculture.
0,9 1,0 3,8 7,4 5,4 7,1
12,1 12,8 12,7 14,9
2,4 1,9
2,7
3,5 3,6
4,9
8,6 9,5
14,4 8,8
3,3 2,9
6,5
10,9 9,0
12,0
20,7 22,3
27,1
23,7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
3
6
9
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15
18
21
24
27
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6-2021
Downstream Upstream Total
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DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.85
Rishat A. Migunov, Anastasia A. Syutkina,
Natalia F. Zaruk, Elena S. Kolomeeva,
Natalia V. Arzamastseva
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3.3 Ethical Risks and Limitations: New
Value Orientations
The urbanization of the modern developed and
developing world, leading to an increasing share of
the urban population with the simultaneous
increase in the economic, political and cultural
significance of cities, [13], and the increase in the
share of millennials in consumption patterns to
47% by 2025, [14], [15], lead to a shift in values in
the development of the agribusiness sector with an
emphasis on the development of personalized
nutrition, the consumption of organic food, food
with improved and predetermined properties for a
particular consumer. These changes are
transforming agricultural production and social
reproduction in the agribusiness sector.
The problem of protein production (Figure 3)
and the increasing pressure of this production on
the ecosystem is of particular importance due to the
growth of the world's population and the increasing
share of the middle class in India, China, and
Africa.
Fig. 3: World livestock production by livestock sector, mln t, [13].
Protein production from traditional sources
beef, pork, chicken requires significantly more
land and water than from non-traditional sources
algae, insects (Figure 4, Figure 5), which raises the
question of new value orientations of the growing
population or the ethical risks of dealing with such
issues.
71
30 626 9
259
64
13
100 82
455
106
25
143 181
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Total meat Beef Mutton Pork Poultry
1961 2005 2050
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DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.85
Rishat A. Migunov, Anastasia A. Syutkina,
Natalia F. Zaruk, Elena S. Kolomeeva,
Natalia V. Arzamastseva
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Fig. 4: Land area for production of 1 kg of protein,
sq. m., [16].
Fig. 5: Volume of water to produce 200 gr of
protein, ml, [16].Processes of personalization in
food consumption, the development of the 'sharing
economy', new values in the agribusiness sector
(sustainability, ethics, safety, healthy lifestyles) are
leading to the clustering (customization) of food
consumers worldwide, which has a defining impact
on the agricultural trade sector and is changing
logistics chains in regions.
3.4 Natural and Climatic Change
The UN World Food Organization (FAO) estimates
that agriculture is a major source of greenhouse
gases, accounting for up to 12% of global
emissions, [17]. When these figures are combined
with the corresponding changes in land use,
including deforestation (driven largely by
agriculture), agriculture is responsible for a quarter
of all GHG emissions. Agriculture has a high
mitigation potential and 74 per cent of this potential
is found in developing countries. There is evidence
that climate change is reducing the quality and
sustainability of agricultural production, [18].
3.5 Recycling, Recycling and Valorisation of
Waste
Today, about a third of global food production goes
to waste about 1.3 billion tons at a cost of about
$990 billion, [19].
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DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.85
Rishat A. Migunov, Anastasia A. Syutkina,
Natalia F. Zaruk, Elena S. Kolomeeva,
Natalia V. Arzamastseva
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Fig. 5: The Enormous Scale of Global Food Waste (Total annual household food waste produced in selected
countries), [20].
In developed countries, most waste is generated
in households, restaurants and supermarkets. In
developing countries, it is generated during
transport or during storage. Our desire for
convenience and packaged food is directly linked to
the growth of plastic waste. It is estimated that
there will be more plastic than fish in the world's
oceans by 2050, [21].
3.6 Political Instability
Political-economic, institutional and structural
challenges have become particularly acute in the
third decade of the 20th century, resulting in:
- increased volatility of food prices;
- growing influence of large integrating
companies in the development of the agribusiness
sector within national economies and by
multinational companies; and the impact of
transnational companies on global food markets;
- increasing tendencies towards autarky in
countries and a rise in protectionist regulations.
3.7 The Challenges of Innovative
Development: Science, Education, Private
Investment
Scientific advances over the last 50 years have led
to a boom in biotechnology, and advances in
computing systems have significantly reduced the
time required to find the right solutions. Major
advances include:
- DNA decoding.
- Microbiome analysis.
- Gene editing technologies (CRISPR/Cas-9,
TALEN, etc.).
The development of digital technologies has a
particular impact on the development of the
agribusiness sector. To date, Russia has conducted
a comprehensive study showing the potential of
using digital technologies 4.0 in the domestic
agribusiness sector based on the FAO
methodology. The general conclusion of the study
is that the transition of Russian agriculture to
digital technologies will increase the potential
output of agricultural products by 1.58 times at the
same cost of agricultural resources.
The global challenges can only be overcome by
coordinated action by the major global players in
the food market: The world leaders in food and
agricultural raw materials production, the world
consumers and the main logistics players, based on
current research of the influence of various
institutions on the emerging agrarian market
conditions, [22], [23].
4 Conclusions
The paper analyses the main global challenges
facing the development of the global agribusiness
sector, including the Russian Federation.
Today, the agro-industrial sector, in the context
of the global transition from one technological
91,6
68,8
19,4
8,2
6,3
5,5
5,2
4,9
3,6
2,6
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50
59 64
75
85
77
33
77
102
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
China
India
United States
Japan
Germany
France
Iunited Kindom
Russia
Spain
Australia
Total food waste per year (mln t) Estimated food waste per capita (kg)
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Rishat A. Migunov, Anastasia A. Syutkina,
Natalia F. Zaruk, Elena S. Kolomeeva,
Natalia V. Arzamastseva
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mode to another, has developed unique
opportunities for Russian production and
consumption of agricultural products, " windows of
opportunities " for a radical transition to a new
stage of development and to sustainable economic
growth of the sector.
Based on a set of sources, the paper identifies
the main global challenges facing agricultural
development: demographic growth and hunger;
resource shortages within the existing model of AIS
3.0; ethical limitations and risks; growing threats of
the spread of dangerous infectious diseases; natural
and climatic change; external geopolitical and
sanctions pressure.
The given global challenges represent the basis
for the development of economic policy in the
agribusiness sector, the development of quality
formal and informal rules and institutions that
support the economic growth of the agribusiness
sector and also allow risk-oriented approaching to
agricultural development in different territories.
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Natalia F. Zaruk, Elena S. Kolomeeva,
Natalia V. Arzamastseva
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Contribution of Individual Authors to the
Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting
Policy)
The authors equally contributed in the present
research, at all stages from the formulation of the
problem to the final findings and solution.
Sources of Funding for Research Presented in a
Scientific Article or Scientific Article Itself
This study was supported by the Russian Ministry
of Education and Science under agreement No.
075-15-2022-747 dated May 13, 2022 on pooling
grants from the federal budget in the form of
subsidies in accordance with paragraph 4 of Article
78.1 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation
(internal number MK-3783.2022.2).
Conflict of Interest
The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.
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DOI: 10.37394/23207.2023.20.85
Rishat A. Migunov, Anastasia A. Syutkina,
Natalia F. Zaruk, Elena S. Kolomeeva,
Natalia V. Arzamastseva
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