A Counterfactual Impact Evaluation of EU State Aid in Greece
ANASTASIA PSEIRIDIS, IOANNIS KOSTOPOULOS
Department of Economics and Regional Development,
Panteion University,
GREECE
Abstract: EU state aid adopted from Member States is increasing at a fast pace due to the Covid-19 pandemic
and energy crisis. Given its impact on the European economy, securing a maximum value added is a challenge
for both policy makers and public administration. State aid impact depends not only on available resources but
also on spending decisions that must be in line with state aid rules. It is believed that new policies would
benefit if they were based on assessed evidence of existing policies during periods with similar characteristics.
Our contribution analyses the characteristics of Greek development law based on a unique dataset extracted
from the management information system of the Ministry of Economy. We hypothesize that there will be a
change in firm productivity in the first years since program closure. Using counterfactual impact evaluation and
propensity score matching, we find that there is a minor negative impact of development law on productivity.
This might be an indication that firms receiving state aid do not perform as expected and perhaps better
planning during policy modeling is needed.
Key-Words: counterfactual impact evaluation, propensity score matching, state aid
Received: July 14, 2022. Revised: November 19, 2022. Accepted: December 12, 2022. Published: January 17, 2023.
1 Introduction
“One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and
programs by their intentions rather than their
results”, [1]. Indeed, governments are increasingly
using policies to support firms, all the more so due
to the covid-19 outbreak, [2] and the energy market
disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
[3]. As state resources are limited and these
programs are ultimately financed by taxpayers, it is
expected that they have an overall beneficial impact.
Thus, the challenge is to design programs for
meeting well-defined objectives. Designing a
program to improve a current market status is quite
like designing a medical treatment for a patient. You
need to know what works, what does not, whether
the observed results are attributable to the
intervention, and whether the results are worth the
expense.
More than 200 million EU people (48% of the
EU-28 population) are eligible for regional state aid
during the period 2022-2027, [4]. The European
Commission already uses a method called
Counterfactual Impact Evaluation (CIE) to diagnose
inefficiencies on existing policies and support policy
makers on a range of decisions i.e. to scale up
existing policies, to adjust budget allocations, or
even to stop policies that do not seem to work. It
expects to receive over 2,000 evaluations by 2023,
[5]. The need for ex post evaluation of the effective
implementation of adopted state aid cases is also
highlighted during competition policy discussions in
the European Parliament, [6]. CIE answers a
particular type of question, i.e., what is the causal
effect of an intervention on an outcome of interest?
To estimate the causal effect, CIE is based on an
analysis of what happened to participants compared
to a scenario of what would have happened to them
in the absence of the intervention. The
methodological challenge is to build a group of non-
participants with similar characteristics with the
group of participants, i.e. the counterfactual group.
The difference between the observed outcome and
the outcome of the counterfactual is seen as the
causal impact.
In February 2011, the government of Greece
issued the national development law 3908 (DL2011
henceforth). Development laws are in general the
longest-standing state aid national policy for
investment incentives in Greece. DL2011 was open
for applications until 2014 and eligibility criteria
were based on General Block Exemption Regulation
800/2008, [7]. The program appeared potentially
promising before implementation, since it was
targeted to improve a large number of areas such as
entrepreneurship, technological development,
competitiveness, regional cohesion, green economy,
efficient utilization of existing infrastructures, and
deployment of the country’s human resources, [8].
This argument is even stronger if we consider that
between 1998 and 2014 development laws funded
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investment plans of a total budget of more than
€32bn with a government contribution of €6.2bn,
[9]. This amount is one third of the investment gap
1
in Greece, [10]. Therefore, an investment incentives
tool that might contribute to closing the investment
gap can be considered as an important tool to
support Greek firms. But, despite the alleged
potential benefits of development laws, there is
already some evidence that they fail to generate the
expected impacts. An assessment of the Ministry of
Economy, [11] revealed that out of 11,735
approvals for aid during the period 2004-2014, only
5,364 firms have eventually managed to carry out
the planned investments.
Throughout the years, CIE is used to assess
policies similar to DL2011; results have been
contradictory. There is evidence that competition for
incentives can offer more projects to poor areas
[12]; can be effective for the economy, [13]; reduces
initial cost of investment and lowers the risk of a
new investment, [14]; provides externalities to local
market, [15]; increases value added, [16]; and helps
firms to survive, [17]. On the other side, Blomström
et al., [18]) find that it is very difficult to make
projections about the benefit of investments;
Charlton, [19] suggests a targeted allocation of EU
funds to more important areas like education or
infrastructure; Michalek, [20] reports that the same
investments would have been performed without
aid; and Santos, [21] finds that subsidized firms
have a lower contribution to growth. For an
overview of the research on positive and negative
effects of investment incentives, see Cedidlova [22].
Our intention is to contribute to this discussion,
by assessing the impact of DL2011 on the
performance of firms which received state aid. As a
measure of performance, we use productivity, i.e.
how well resources are used to produce output. In an
input-constrained environment producing the same
output with less resources is important in terms of
natural resources and available working units, [23].
To do this we need to compare two groups of
firms (funded and non-funded). Comparing groups
with dissimilar characteristics (other than funding)
would be problematic, therefore we use propensity
score matching to find a reliable counterfactual for
our CIE. Propensity score matching calculates the
probability of receiving financial support on the
basis of a set of observable characteristics and
matches treated firms to non-treated ones with
similar probability scores. We use data extracted
from the management information system (MIS) of
1
This is defined as missing investments in Greece to
reach European average competitiveness level.
the Ministry of Economy and compare the
productivity levels of treated and non-treated
manufacturing firms two years after the ending of
DL2011.
We evaluate DL2011 mainly for two reasons.
The first reason is data availability; i.e. the existence
of a MIS. As reported on the explanatory
memorandum of DL2011, [24] the MIS was
designed to collect and organize applicant firm data
and support granting authorities to make correct
decisions. Although the creation of this MIS was an
uncharted field for the granting authorities, it
contributed to the rationalization of the existing
procedures, facilitating information exchange
between granting authorities and the firms. This
common information flow was expected to create a
positive climate of trust, thus improving
transparency on the selection criteria of the firms.
The second reason is the duration of the measure.
The DL2011 was active (i.e. open for submissions)
for less than four years. This can be considered a
short duration if we consider that previous laws
(development law 1262 of 1982, development law
1892 of 1990) were active for at least eight years.
This short duration means that it is more likely that
all firms of DL2011 implement their planned
investments under the same economic, political,
socio-cultural, and technological conditions.
There are four areas of discussion that we usually
encounter in a state aid policy evaluation, i.e.
number of applicants, number of approvals,
implementations actually made, and impact of the
program. The first area is the most communicated
one, since policy makers pursue to publish the
number of applicants and the total budget of the
investments. For example, a three-month open call
for investments in tourism managed to attract 562
applications with an estimated budget of €1.6bn,
[25]. The second area is about the approval
decisions. Many applications are usually rejected
due to budget limitations. In our example the
available state aid budget is 150 m€ per year, [26].
The third area includes the finalized investment
plans that received the financial aid. There is
evidence that many firms never finalize their
investments, [11]. The fourth area is the analysis of
policy impact. Much of the research emphasis to
date has been on monitoring the collected data in
terms of capital formation, creation of new firms,
and creation of new jobs at both the regional and
sectoral perspective, [27]. But state aid policy might
appear potentially attractive yet fail to generate the
expected results. In our example, can we tell if a
new aided investment operates better than non-
funded ones in terms of productivity?
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Counterfactual impact evaluation could answer this
question since it estimates the change that would
have occurred without the state aid policy. The
European Commission and member states already
use this method to evaluate state aid policies, [28].
To our knowledge, there are no evaluations of this
kind in Greece yet, although there is one study
under preparation, [29]. Our aim is to bring some
evidence in the area of counterfactual impact
evaluation and contribute to the creation of an
evidence-based state aid policy in Greece, especially
nowadays that the available state aid budget for the
period 2021-2027 has been more than doubled
compared to last period due to the Recovery and
Resilience Fund.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows:
Section 2 describes the policy framework. Section 3
reviews the literature. Section 4 discusses the
theoretical hypotheses of our research. Section 5
introduces propensity score matching analysis and
section 6 presents the data. Section 7 provides the
methodology steps and the corresponding
assumptions and the findings. Section 8 discusses
the policy implications of the findings and provides
recommendations to policy makers. We conclude
with a summary and suggestions for future research.
2 The Policy under Examination
DL2011 is a state aid measure that provides
financial support to firms wishing to implement new
investments in Greece. This type of public support
may confer advantages to firms over competitors.
Therefore, state aid measures must follow specific
rules to ensure that distortion of competition is
avoided at both the national and European levels. In
our case, DL2011 is a national law that follows
European Commission (EC henceforth) regulations
applicable for all state members. It complies with
the conditions of General Block Exemption
Regulation for regional aid (GBER henceforth). It is
a simplified regulation that declares certain
categories of aid compatible with the internal
market. The main advantage of GBER is that the
member state assesses the measure based on
predefined criteria and then it simply notifies the
results to the EC. It is so popular that since 2015,
more than 96% of new state aid measures in the
European Union comply with GBER, [30].
Based on the state aid case registry, [31] more
than 1,405 measures with similar characteristics to
the DL2011 have been created in the European
Union since 2011. Therefore, the evaluation of
DL2011 provides insights potentially useful to other
EU countries as well.
DL2011 offers financial grants and tax reliefs to
private firms for the implementation of investment
projects. The investments must be related to the
building of new establishments or to the upgrading
of existing establishments, [8]. Eligible costs
include both tangible and intangible assets i.e.
buildings, mechanical engineering equipment for the
production line, transportation and installation of
equipment, special facilities, transportation vehicles,
know-how, landscaping the surrounding area,
infrastructure projects, and expenditures for
consulting studies, [32]. Creation of new jobs is also
related to the above investments.
Maximum aid intensities are applicable to the
above eligible costs taking into consideration the
location of the investment. The aid intensity (i.e. the
percent of the investment budget that is provided as
aid) is not higher than 40% of the total eligible cost
in NUTS 2 regions whose GDP per capita is below
55% of the EU average and is not higher than 15%
in NUTS 2 regions whose GDP per capita is below
65% of the EU average. The maximum aid
intensities are increased by 10% for medium-sized
enterprises and by 20% for small enterprises. The
beneficiary has to cover the remaining part of the
investment providing a financial contribution of at
least 25% of the eligible costs of the project [7].
Upon each call for proposals, any Greek private
legal entity can submit an application for aid,
including all necessary documents and data [33]. To
be successful and receive financial support,
applicants must fulfil a set of eligibility criteria and
must pass a minimum threshold of a point system
based on a set of criteria [34]. The former represents
on/off criteria based on the typical requirements and
the objectives of DL2011. The latter represents the
criteria used to score the applications and rank the
eligible applications. The firm can only initiate its
intended project activities after the application for
the aid. This indicates that the new investment is
due to the incentives provided through DL2011
(incentive effect). If otherwise, the project is
rejected, [8].
The minimum budget of an investment plan can
be €100k and the maximum amount of aid per firm
can be €15m, [8]. The responsible body for
monitoring high budget investments i.e. more than
€3m is the Ministry of Economy. Regional
authorities are responsible for the monitoring of
investments with lower budgets. The appraisal of
the investments is performed from the members of
the National Register of Evaluators, [35]. The
approval decision contains all terms and conditions
that the beneficiary should fulfil during the
implementation of the project. The relevant
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summary of the Ministerial decision is published in
the Official Gazette and the state aid enters into
force, [36].
3 Literature Review
We have identified thirty-seven European studies
that measure the impact of EC state aid on firms’
labor productivity using propensity score matching,
one of the methods of CIE. The studies come from
thirteen countries: Croatia, [37]–[42], Czech
Republic, [16], [43]–[50], Denmark, [51], Finland
[52], [53], France, [54], Germany, [55]–[57],
Hungary, [58]–[60], Italy, [61]–[66], Latvia [67],
Lithuania, [68], Portugal, [69], [70], Spain, [71], and
Sweden, [72].
Twenty (54%) studies showed negative or no
results. The remaining seventeen (46%) showed
positive results. As the results of this literature about
the impact of the incentives are mixed, we examined
results based on regional characteristics of the
programs. Of the 37 studies, twenty-eight (76%)
studies were performed at the national level. In
sixteen (57%) of them the impact of the incentives
was negative. Nine cases (24%) were performed at
the regional level; the cases of positive impact were
higher (56%) than those with the negative impact.
Even national incentives policies seem to provide
contradictory results as some policies provide
positive results and some others negative results.
For example, in the Czech Republic, 5 (56%)
studies showed positive results. Ιn Italy and Croatia
four (67%) studies showed negative results.
Motivated by the above contradictions we run a
parallel study to examine the characteristics
affecting the outcome of the above policy
interventions [73]. In this study, we found a lack of
consistent reporting of the propensity score
matching method and we propose guidelines to
allow comparison across studies and to facilitate
interpretation across academia and policy makers.
4 Theoretical Hypotheses
As in the above studies, in this paper we examine
the impact of an incentive policy on firms’ labor
productivity. We examine the impact of DL2011 on
manufacturing firms that applied for state aid to
implement new investments. Their applications
include business plans for the establishments of new
production units or for the upgrade of their existing
production units.
DL2011 offers non-repayable financial support
to firms that manage to pass the selection criteria.
This could mean that successful applicants face a
relief on their financial obligations over non-
successful applicants. Therefore, DL2011 minimizes
implementation risk and firms can dedicate their
efforts to improve performance.
On the other hand, successful applicants may
start implementing business plans that perhaps they
are not yet ready to successfully implement and
hence their submitted business plans are not carried
out to the end. As mentioned in the introduction,
nearly half of the approved projects have not
managed to successfully implement their
investments.
Therefore, an interesting question to ask would
be: what happens, in terms of performance, to those
firms which receive state aid. Therefore, we work
with three hypotheses. The first hypothesis is that
DL2011 has a negative impact on successful firms;
the second hypothesis is that DL2011 has a positive
impact; and the third hypothesis is that there is no
impact.
5 Method
Policy interventions are typically aimed at
remedying an existing situation. They can be seen as
analogous to treatments given in medicine. In this
light, DL2011 is the treatment, which is
implemented on the expectation of improving the
status of firms that will receive state aid. The aim of
our analysis is to measure the effect of DL2011 on
labor productivity that is our outcome of interest. Of
course, changes in the outcome may be only partly
due to the intervention, and sometimes not at all.
Thus, a fundamental problem is how to establish
attribution, i.e. how to determine that the outcome is
the effect of the intervention and not of other
factors.
Since we cannot observe the same firm at a
certain point of time, being in both statuses, the
challenge is to define a group consisting of firms
that have not received state aid but have similar
characteristics with the firms that are treated (we
call this the non-treated group). This group consists
of firms that applied for aid but did not get funding
(while the treatment group consists of firms that did
get funding). This can be done using counterfactual
impact evaluation. Counterfactual model analysis
was first started from Neyman-Rubin, [74].
Khandker et al., [75], provide a review.
The causal impact of DL2011 can thus be seen as
the difference between the outcome of treated firms
and the outcome without the treatment, [74], [76].
The impact of the intervention using the
outcomes of two groups can be calculated only if
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the two groups have similar characteristics. Random
assignment is considered to be a reliable form of
research design since all eligible firms have the
same probability of receiving the treatment, [77]. If
all firms have the same probability of getting
treated, then it is considered that the output will
represent the eligible population and that the impact
is due to the intervention.
In our case, we cannot randomly assign firms in
the two groups (treated and non-treated) since
DL2011 uses an evaluation procedure that selects
the firms that will be funded.
A positive evaluation leads to treatment
(financial support) while a negative evaluation leads
to non-treatment. Therefore, the two groups cannot
be built randomly. Instead the groups can be built
based on the selection criteria of the evaluation
procedure of DL2011, [34]. Rosenbaum & Rubin,
[76], first showed that a method called propensity
score matching can mimic random assignment under
the condition that the study is performed based on a
set of observable firm characteristics. Therefore, the
groups can be defined based on a series of selection
criteria. Propensity is defined as a firm’s probability
of being treated. That means that two firms with the
same characteristics have the same probability of
receiving the aid. If a firm from the control group
has the same propensity score with a firm of the
treated group, then it is considered as the most
comparable counterpart and the allocation can be
considered as random. A review of the propensity
score matching method can be found in a series of
most cited studies, [78]–[82], [76], [83]. Gertler et
al., [84], and Khandker et al., [75], provide an
overview.
The propensity score is used to convert the
multidimensional vector of observable
characteristics to a single composite variable. In our
case, if we assume that the age of the firm is a
selection criterion in DL2011, and theory and
empirical findings also suggest that it affects
productivity, a simple method would be to compare
all firms with similar age in both treated and non-
treated firms. But, as mentioned earlier, there is a
series of criteria that affect the selection of a firm
while economic theory and empirical literature
report a series of productivity determinants.
Therefore, it seems more plausible to create a
multidimensional vector of variables that affect
selection of firms and the outcome of the treatment.
Propensity scores convert this dimensionality issue
into a single score, and then based on this score
firms from the two groups can be matched.
In other words, two firms with the same
propensity scores have about the same observed
characteristics except the exposure to treatment.
Therefore, the effect of the treatment (DL2011) can
be measured by comparing the output (i.e. labor
productivity) of a matched pair of firms.
6 Data
Our dataset consists of 1,910 firms that applied for
state aid under DL2011. All applications were
submitted between September 2011 and March
2014. Following the assessment of the applications
by the granting authorities, 1,261 investment
applications were successful (deemed eligible to
receive aid) and 649 applications were rejected.
Table 1 shows the number of approved investments
and their main characteristics. We highlight that
state aid to industry is €1.24bn in total of €1.95bn
for all sectors, which shows that the main part
(63%) of the financial support of the DL2011 is
channeled to industry.
Table 1. DL2011 investments.
Type
Number of
investments
State aid (€bn)
New Average
Working Units
Applications (all sectors)
1,910
2.75
9,774
Approved (all sectors)
1,261
1.95
6,140
Applications (industry)
1,114
1.73
3,791
Approved (industry)
742
1.24
2,375
Source: Own calculations, data retrieved from Greek Ministry of Economy.
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The call was open for economic activities in the
primary, secondary, and tourism sectors, [8]. Our
scope is limited to firms which submitted business
plans to operate only in the secondary sector
because (a) we want to compare firms with similar
characteristics and (b) the secondary sector offers
the largest sample. Therefore, we consider
applications with economic activities belonging to
the statistical classification NACE 10-39 (Table 2);
thus, our sample includes 1,114 firms. We made
some exclusions, as follows. As discussed, our aim
is to find firms with similar characteristics. Thus, we
exclude 495 cases of wind and hydropower
generation plants (NACE 35) and our sample now
consists of 619 industrial firms. We exclude these
firms because they seem to have different
characteristics from other industrial firms. For
example, wind power plants find abundant sources
of raw material, and they have very few permanent
employees.
Then, we exclude firms with two applications
and firms that relate to other applicant firms. We
find this information on the declaration forms
signed by the firms. The reason for this exclusion is
that the outcome of one project should be
independent from the assignment of treatment on
other projects, thus fulfilling Stable Unit Treatment
Value Assumption [76], [85]. Thus, we keep 544
firms that were already operating at the time of the
application. We exclude firms that do not operate at
the time of the application because they may never
operate upon failing to receive state aid. Thus, these
firms could not be included in the control group. We
then exclude cases with missing values, which occur
mainly among limited liability companies. These are
mostly very small enterprises with low sales figures
and low average working units. Therefore, we have
a working dataset of 135 industrial enterprises.
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Table 2. NACE codes used in the analysis
NACE
Description
10,11,12
Manufacture of food products, beverages, and tobacco products
13, 14, 15
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather, and related products
16
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture
17
Manufacture of paper and paper products
18
Printing and reproduction of recorded media
19
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products
20
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products
21
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations
22
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products
23
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products
24
Manufacture of basic metals
25
Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment
26
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products
27
Manufacture of electrical equipment
28
Manufacture of machinery and equipment
29
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers
31-32
Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing
33
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment
36
Water collection, treatment, and supply
37, 38, 39
Sewerage, waste collection, treatment, and disposal activities; materials recovery,
remediation activities and other waste management services
Source: Own elaboration, data retrieved from Greek Ministry of Economy.
All of them include a business plan for the
establishment of new production units. Among
them, the firms whose investment plans were
rejected are 66. One of the characteristics of
DL2011 was that rules and selection criteria are
published in advance and a firm entering in the MIS
knows (a) if it is eligible and (b) the assessment
points it receives. Therefore, it is most likely that
firms knowing that they cannot achieve a high
ranking do not proceed with an application for state
aid. This is an important characteristic of the
management information system that reduces the
work needed from the agencies to evaluate the
applications. Regarding our research, while this
characteristic reduces the effort to build a large
control group, it provides a control group which is
more similar to the “treatment” group, because firms
included in our control group are those applying for
aid but failed to provide the documentation to justify
their application. This is a condition of DL2011:
applications that are not accompanied by all
supporting documentation in original form are
rejected, [36].
We now need to evaluate whether our sample is
large enough for our statistical analysis. The
discussion on the proper sample size is based on two
criteria. The total sample size and the size of the
control group compared to the size of the treatment
group. Many studies, [74], [76], [86], [87] report
that the size of the control group is a crucial
parameter for the quality of the results. Intuitively, a
high control-to-treatment ratio provides a better
probability to find two reliable matched groups.
However as Rubin, [88], reported in his study, the
improvements in bias reduction from control-to-
treatment ratio 2:1 to 9:1 were modest. Thus, we
found no clear guidelines in the extant literature
about the sampling characteristics. In our case, only
one applicant out of five is not approved. This fact
does not provide us the opportunity to use a high
control-to-treatment ratio.
Data was drawn from the MIS of the Ministry of
Economy under official permission. To complete
our dataset with financial data, we also used
publicly available sources, [89]–[91]. Table 3 lists
the source we used to collect data.
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Table 3. Sources of data for observable variables and indicators.
Source
Observable Variable
(Indicator used in the study)
Ministry of Economy
Status of firm- to observe treated and non-treated firms
Human Capital (experience of shareholders, experience of
management team, specialization of management team, education)
FDI (financial contribution of foreign investors)
Innovation (use of innovative techniques)
Physical capital (eco-friendly production process)
Firm age (years of operation)
Exports (exporting revenues)
Average Working units of firms, used for the calculation of labour
productivity
General Electronic
Commercial Registry
Balance sheet information used for the calculation of labour
productivity
National Printing House of
Greece
National Transparency Portal
Websites
Source: Own elaboration.
7 Propensity Score Matching: Use and
Results
The steps of the propensity score matching method
were outlined by a number of studies, [92], [93],
[77], [94], [95]. Our study includes five steps: (1)
variable selection, (2) calculation of propensity
scores, (3) matching estimation, (4) diagnosis of
matching quality, and (5) calculation of average
treatment on treated effect
2
.
7.1 Variable Selection
A basic assumption of propensity score matching is
conditional independence (Rosenbaum & Rubin,
2
For our estimation we use the Stata commands
pscore (Becker & Ichino, 2002) and psmatch2 [97]
respectively. Becker and Ichino have developed a
command (pscore) for propensity score matching
estimators i.e. nearest-neighbor, kernel, and radius.
Leuven and Sianesi (2018) have developed the
command psmatch2 that includes routines for
covariate imbalance testing (pstest) and common
support graphing (psgraph).
1983). This means that all variables that affect both
participation and outcome of the intervention are
included in the analysis, [77], [88], [94], [98]–[100].
This holds true in our case, since each variable we
selected represents a selection criterion of DL2011
(conceptual relevance) and is also a determinant of
productivity (theoretical relevance), [101]. Variables
affected by the treatment are not to be included in
propensity score matching, [93]. Under this
assumption, assignment to the intervention can be
considered as random and each firm has the same
probability of being treated.
Based on our literature review of 35 studies that
analyze the impact of state aid on firm productivity
using propensity score matching we use the eleven
variables listed below, [28]. The variables
Shareholders, Management, Specialization, Age,
Education, Innovation, Eco-friendly, Exports, and
FDI show firm characteristics in the pre-treatment
phase (i.e. year 2011), the Treated variable shows if
a firm has been selected for treatment during the
period 2011-2014, and Labor productivity shows the
status of the firm two years after the end of the
intervention (i.e. 2016). We assign 0 and 1 values to
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the variables after elaboration of data extracted from
MIS, as follows.
1. Treated: takes the value of 1 if a firm has
received funding and 0 otherwise.
2. Labor productivity: We use a firm’s total
revenue as an output metric [102] and average
working units (AWUs), which essentially is a
headcount, as a labor metric. For the
calculation of AWU, we consider that an
employee, who worked full time within an
enterprise during an entire year, counts as one
unit. Part-time staff, seasonal workers, and
those who did not work the full year are
treated as fractions of one unit, [103].
3. The Shareholders variable refers to whether
most shareholders of the firm participated in
any business entity with net positive earnings
for more than three years, during the last five
years. In that case, the variable takes the
value of 1 and 0 otherwise.
4. The Management variable rates the most
experienced executive (among Chairman,
Board of Directors, and Managing Director).
If one of these executives has management
experience of at least two years during the
last five years, then the variable takes the
value of 1. If less, it takes the value of 0.
5. The Specialization variable takes the value of
1 if one of the executives has postgraduate
studies or business experience in a field
related to the main activity of the investment.
If none of the executives have any experience
the value is 0.
6. The Age variable takes the value of 1 if the
firm operates for at least three fiscal years
with positive net profits. Otherwise, the value
is 0.
7. The Education variable shows the educational
characteristics of the firm. It is coded by the
MIS as 1 if the percentage of graduate
employees per total employees is more than
25%. Otherwise, the value is 0.
8. The Innovation variable takes the value of 1 if
the firm has introduced in its production
innovative techniques such as research and
development (R&D), product design, quality
assurance, certification systems and patents.
Otherwise, the value is 0.
9. The Eco-friendly variable takes the value of 1
if the firm includes in the production process
technologies that reduce environmental
impact i.e. renewable energy, recycling.
Otherwise, the value is 0.
10. The Exports variable takes the value of 1 for
firms with exporting revenues at 30% of the
total revenues. Otherwise, the value is 0.
11. The FDI variable takes the value of 1 when at
least 25% of the financial contribution for the
project to be financed comes from investors
located in another country. Otherwise, the
value is 0.
We evaluate the impact of DL2011 two years after
the end of the submission deadline. According to
Bondonio, [104] this period is considered
appropriate to assess the impact of a program.
Bergstom, [105] agrees by stating that very short
time evaluation will misrepresent the impact of a
program while evaluating in a longer time would
hinder the isolation of the effects of the program. On
the same vein, Antonioli et al., [106], and Autio &
Rannikko, [107], define as a reliable threshold a 2-
year period after the program submission deadline.
Table 4 summarizes the variables and their
description and shows the characteristics of the
sample. Most firms of our sample have an
experienced management team, are already in the
market for more than three years, have a small
percentage of graduate employees, have exporting
activities, do not use eco-friendly technologies, and
use funds from domestic sources.
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Table 4. Observed characteristics of firms.
Variable
Short description
% of sample
with value 1
(except vars
with *)
*Treated
Categorical variable, indicates successful application
for funding.
*Labor
Productivity
Outcome variable, calculated as annual revenue (k)
/average working units.
Average (all
firms) = 372
Shareholders
Control variable, participating in a business entity
with net earnings of at least three years.
44%
Management
Control variable, management experience of at least
two years.
97%
Specialization
Control variable, management specialization in the
area.
44%
Age
Control variable, firms with more than three years of
operation.
81%
Education
Control variable, percentage of graduates per total
employees is more than 25%.
25%
Innovation
Control variable, use of innovative techniques.
54%
Eco-friendly
Control variable, type of production process.
33%
Exports
Control variable, exporting revenue per total revenue
is more than 30%.
80%
FDI
Control variable, financial contribution from foreign
resources at least 25% of total contribution.
5%
Note: 135 observations (69 treated, 66 non-treated).
Source: Own elaboration.
7.2 Calculation of Propensity Scores
We estimate the propensity scores
3
, using probit
regression, [78], [98]. We use the pre-treatment
variables as predictors of a firm being assigned the
treatment. All firms are assigned a propensity score
showing the predicted probability of receiving
treatment. For a review of propensity score
calculation refer to Khandker et al., [75].
7.3 Matching Estimation
We assess the comparability of treated and non-
treated firms. To do this we estimate the “common
support area”, another basis of propensity score
matching. It is the area where the mean propensity
scores of treated and non-treated are similar. Within
3
Propensity scores and other statistics are available on
request.
this area, a firm can be potentially observed with
treatment and without treatment. Firms that have
low or high propensity scores and have no
counterpart from the other group are excluded. In
our case, propensity scores below 0.2 come from
only non-treated firms while scores upwards of 0,8
come only from treated ones. Therefore, the
common support is between 0.2 and 0.8 (see
) and all firms with propensity scores falling outside
this range are discarded from our analysis. The
common support area of our study includes 131
firms.
Following the identification of the above range,
we classify firms into blocks based on their
propensity score. This classification ensures that the
mean propensity score is not different for treated
and controls in each block. The number of blocks
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calculated with this procedure is 5, as shown in Table 5.
Fig. 1: Balance between control and treatment groups.
Source: Own calculations
Table 5. Blocks of propensity score.
Propensity score
Treated
Total no. of firms
0
1
0.2
22
11
33
0.4
30
33
63
0.6
10
23
33
0.8
0
2
2
Total
62
69
131
Source: Own elaboration.
Then, we perform a second classification based on
the comparison of the observable characteristics of
the firms, to check for the possibility of close
matching. Close matching would offer a perfect
balance between treated and non-treated firms,
making treatment assignment looking random,
providing evidence for the validity of the
conditional independence assumption.
Exact matching of treated and non-treated firms
cannot be achieved most of the time. The closest
scenario to exact matching is to find the nearest firm
from the control group in terms of the propensity
score.
To do this, we first use a stratification estimator.
Rosenbaum & Rubin, [76], showed that estimates
based on stratification represent estimates of real
average treatment effects.
Stratification ensures that estimates can have
accuracy in the sub-samples and comparison
between sub-samples can be performed with equal
statistical power.
Then, to test whether the estimated results are
sensitive to different model specifications we
perform our analysis using another estimator called
Radius estimator. In this case each treated firm is
matched with a non treated firm whose propensity
Density
.2 .4 .6 .8
Propensity Score
Untreated Treated
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score lies within a predefined caliper. The
propensity range allows more than one non-treated
firm to be selected for matching. The method
reduces poor matching since non-treated firms
outside of the range are excluded.
Finally, we use a Kernel estimator. In this case,
the propensity scores of non-treated firms receive a
weight in proportion to its distance from the
matched treated firm. Each treated firm is assigned a
weight of one. The non-treated firms with the
closest propensity score receive the highest weight.
All non-treated firms that lie within the specified
bandwidth, i.e. the common support area, are
included in the calculation. Thus, a group of non-
treated firms with weighted propensity scores is
used to create a match with a treated firm.
7.4 Diagnosis of Matching Quality
We check whether the above matching estimators
improve the balance of a covariate’s distribution
within the blocks of propensity score, [108], [109].
Rosenbaum & Rubin, [76] suggested checking the
standardized differences and distributions before
and after matching.
The standardised % bias is the percentage
difference of the sample means in the treated and
non-treated groups as a percentage of the square
root of the average of the sample variances in the
treated and non-treated groups, [81]. Values close to
zero represent minimum bias. This method is used
in many studies, [79], [110]–[113]. It is preferred
compared to t-test for checking the balance of
covariates. The scope is to diagnose the properties
of treated and non-treated groups and not to provide
inferences about the total population. The degree to
which the standardized difference is improved after
matching, provides indication of the balancing
performance. The strictest acceptable level is
reported from Caliendo & Kopeinig, [94], who state
that if the absolute standardized bias is reduced to
less than 5% the matching method is effective.
Harder et al., [114], and Stuart, [78], stated that a
standardized bias not exceeding 25% is acceptable.
Rosenbaum and Rubin, [81] suggested that
standardized differences should be less than 20%.
Plots including all covariates in y axis and
standardized bias in x axis are included in the
appendix (Fig.A.1, A.2, A.3). For each covariate the
standardized bias is presented before and after
matching. We observe that before matching the
variables FDI, Specialization, Shareholders, and
Innovation were above the threshold of 20%
standardized bias, thus presenting evidence of
imbalance. After incorporating matching methods,
we observe reductions in imbalance and firms from
treatment and control groups have identical means
on all covariates.
In addition, histograms (Hist.A.1, A.2, A.3)
provide a visual representation of the distribution of
the differences for the covariates that are included in
the analysis. After matching, all standardized
differences in covariate means are substantially
reduced. Since standardised bias is quite small, this
is an indicator that reliable estimates can be
produced.
7.5 Calculation of Average Treatment on
Treated Effect
The average treatment on treated (ATT) effect, [74],
[96] is the causal effect of the treatment (DL2011)
on an outcome of interest (firm productivity). Thus,
we need to calculate the outcome of a firm with the
treatment (financial aid) and the outcome of the
same firm with no treatment. The difference would
be the treatment effect of the intervention. Since we
cannot observe the same firm being in both statuses
at a certain point of time, the challenge is to find
firms with similar characteristics. Based on theory,
characteristics that affect both the participation in
the program and the outcome of the intervention are
included in the analysis (see variables selection
section). So, each firm is characterized based on a
set of observable characteristics. The propensity
score is used to convert this multidimensional vector
of observable characteristics to a single composite
variable. All firms are assigned a propensity score
showing the predicted probability of receiving
treatment. As explained above, we have restricted
our analysis within the common support area where
the mean propensity scores of treated and non-
treated are similar. Using matching techniques (see
matching estimation section), we find the most
comparable counterparts for the analysis (see
diagnosis of matching quality section). The average
difference in outcome (here: productivity) between
the treated and their respective control(s) is the
average treatment on treated.
Since we compare the characteristics of one firm
with another firm, we cannot have a matching in
absolute terms. Depending on the characteristics of
each technique aiming to find the closest
counterpart the average treatment on treated effect
varies. As we see in Table 6 all three matching
estimators (see matching estimation section) show
that treated firms experience a negative impact from
€73 to €8,270 on annual sales per average working
unit. Thus, in our case all firms of our sample
applied for state aid, and some receive treatment
while others do not. The negative figures suggest
that two years after the end of the interventions,
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firms operating in the industrial sector which
received state aid do not receive a benefit in terms
of labor productivity. If we consider that treated
firms have an average of €368,971 annual sales per
average working unit, the magnitude of the negative
impact is not high. In addition, the state aid cost per
new job position is €317,589 (based on data of
Table 1, the financial support of the state to
1,261 firms was €1.95bn and resulted in 6,140 new
job positions). Compared with similar estimations
from other scholars this cost is high. Indicatively,
[115] reports that state aid in the automotive
industry of the US is 200,000 dollars per new job,
and Bondonio et al., [64], report €230,000 per new
job in Italy. This can be seen as an indication that
DL2011 does not provide good value for money,
since a high level of financial support to firms does
not seem to offer high levels of productivity.
8 Discussion
We may highlight two observations about the effect
of DL2011 on treated firms. The first observation is
related to the human capital of firms. As planned
investments materialize, the technological status of
the firm changes; thus, it might take time for
employees to become familiar with it. This lag
between technological development and personnel
readiness could result in a low utilization of firm
capital, leading to lower productivity levels. This
could be supported by the fact that 75% of the firms
of our sample have employees with relatively low
education. The same reasoning could also be
applicable to the new employees that join the firm
as a result of the investment. If their skills are not
suited to the requirements of the production facility,
the quantity of the employees does not accurately
depict the real workforce of the firm. The
managerial team also plays an important role in
communicating with, and supporting, employees to
familiarize with new goals. In our case, nearly all
firms (97%) have an experienced management team
but less than half (44%) have a specialized
management team. The second observation is
related to firm output. All firms of our sample are
already operating at the time of their application and
most of them (81%) are in operation for more than
three years. This means that they have an
established portfolio of goods and services. The
lower capital costs, due to state aid support, might
encourage firms to undertake a new investment. The
fact that state aid programs are not continuously
available strengthens our explanation as they may
seem as windfalls to be used whenever they appear,
instead of submitting the application whenever this
is suitable to the strategic plan of firms. The state
aid programs come at specific and unknown points
in time when the state believes that there is a market
failure that can be solved by providing non-
refundable subsidies to firms. At the time that a call
for applications is open, a firm might be not in a
position to proceed with a new investment (e.g.
because it might have not reached its full capacity
utilization), but in order to apply for ‘free money’
the firm brings forward (sometimes hastily) an
investment which would be better left to be
executed at a later stage. Besides the potential
capacity of the firms, the type of the new investment
might have an implication on firm output. If the new
investment provides the same goods and services,
then state aid functions similarly to a reduction in
the existing production costs. Lower production
costs should result in better prices, thus attracting
customers from other competitors. On the other
hand, if the new investment provides goods and
services that are not already in the existing portfolio,
then state aid works as a tool to overcome entry
barriers to a new market.
Table 6. Average Treatment on Treated.
Method
Treated
Control
ATT (€)
Std. Error
t
Stratification
69
44
–3,022
93,099
0.255
Radius Matching
69
62
–73
98,958
-0.001
Kernel Matching
69
62
–8,270
85,265
-0.097
Source: Own calculations.
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In our case, the business plans of the firms
include the establishment of new production units
and not the expansion of existing ones. This could
be one explanation of the poor performance since
the firms have to develop a new marketing strategy,
new communication channels, new logistics
processes, etc., for the new portfolio; and these
activities put a burden on existing managerial and
other human resources and might take time to
materialize. Based on the above observations, we
can make two recommendations to policy makers.
The first recommendation is related to the design of
the policy. DL2011 objectives should be (a) realistic
and measurable and (b) designed in a manner that
long term benefits are enhanced. Concerning the
design of realistic and measurable objectives,
DL2011 is arguably an expensive law in terms of
budget spending, thus the expectations from policy
makers seem rather optimistic. As we note in the
introduction, DL2011 has a wide range of objectives
but its impact on the economy remains unknown
since there are no measurable criteria to quantify the
progress. A useful change would be the creation of a
list of objectives like the ones (i.e. basic, specific,
additional benefits) used from Gabor & Sauvant,
[116] to describe the “Authorized Sustainable
Investor”, combined with the list of sustainability
characteristics of investments (economic, social,
environmental) used from Sauvant & Mann, [117].
The second recommendation is about the focus
on long term results. Policy makers know that the
results of the policy will come at a later phase and at
that time they will (most probably) not be still in the
same position, thus it seems that they use DL2011 to
achieve short term political rewards. Short term
rewards may come by designing a policy which
attracts a high number of new investments. To
attract a high number of investments the selection
criteria cover a wider area of firms that are not
necessarily able to achieve the objectives of the
intervention. This is totally understandable if we
hypothetically consider a scenario with a DL2011
bearing very strict and targeted selection criteria.
This intervention could only attract a small portion
of firms since only few could fulfil the strict criteria.
This result could harm the political reputation of the
policy makers, since it is difficult to communicate to
the public that the strict criteria would ensure a
successful implementation of the investments
providing benefits for the economy. To prevent
ineffective design, policy makers should use
evidence from experience. Policy makers together
with data experts can develop a data-driven policy
making procedure based on feedback loops from the
implementing authorities.
Our second recommendation is about the
implementation of the policy. The informational
advantage of implementing authorities should be the
interconnection link with policy design. A strong
public organization must be in place to support
implementation problems. DL2011 includes high
budget investments that usually take time to
implement. During this period, it is not unusual for
firms to face challenges that were not foreseen
during the preparation of the application. These
implementation issues are not communicated to the
implementing authorities since firms have no
obligation to do it. The official communication
process is mainly performed after the
implementation of the project. If we combine this
information gap with our findings on rather poor
performance, this could be a reason why part of the
approved investments is never completed; problems
have never been identified so they never had the
opportunity to be fixed. Thus, a performance
monitoring process should be in place to ascertain
whether firms are still operating and developing the
approved business plans. A monitoring process
could include: (1) an updated monitoring process to
meet the needs of implementing authorities; and (2)
an improved information system to provide reliable
data from the monitoring process to policy makers.
9 Conclusion and Future Directions
In this study we have conducted an impact
assessment for a Greek state aid policy. Our results
show that DL2011 has a minor negative impact on
labor productivity of the firms that received
financial support, a finding consistent with other
recent national studies [37]–[40], [46], [49], [50],
[52], [53], [58], [59], [64], [68]–[70]. Our findings,
based on a dataset from the Ministry of Economy
covering the period 2011-2014, contribute to the
state aid effectiveness discussion providing
empirical evidence that such policies might not offer
advantages to firms receiving the aid. We came to
this conclusion using propensity score matching
analysis on a sample of manufacturing firms which
we observed for the first few years after program
closure. Although we have identified a negative
impact of development law 3908/2011 on labor
productivity of the treated (funded) firms, we are
unable to assess/evaluate the effectiveness of the
policy based solely on our findings. We believe that
our study should be used together with other state
aid studies, giving emphasis not only on the results
but to all actions and assumptions made which are
connected to these results. Then, policy makers
could more easily convert the research knowledge
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into an evidence-based state aid policy based on the
customized needs of each policy program.
Appendix
Hist.A.1. Standardized percentage bias across
covariates before and after matching (Stratification).
Hist.A.2. Standardized percentage bias across
covariates before and after matching (Radius).
Hist.A.3. Standardized percentage bias across
covariates before and after matching (Kernel)
Fig.A.1. Standardized percentage bias across
covariates before and after matching (Stratification)
0
.01 .02 .03 .04
Density
-44 -33 -22 -11 0 11 22 33 44
Standardized % bias across covariates
Unmatched
0
.01 .02 .03 .04
Density
-44 -33 -22 -11 0 11 22 33 44
Standardized % bias across covariates
Matched - Stratification
0
.02 .04 .06 .08 .1
Density
-44 -33 -22 -11 0 11 22 33 44
Standardized % bias across covariates
Unmatched
0
.02 .04 .06 .08 .1
Density
-44 -33 -22 -11 0 11 22 33 44
Standardized % bias across covariates
Matched - Radius
0
.05 .1 .15
Density
-44 -33 -22 -11 0 11 22 33 44
Standardized % bias across covariates
Unmatched
0
.05 .1 .15
Density
-44 -33 -22 -11 0 11 22 33 44
Standardized % bias across covariates
Matched - Kernel
-40 -20 0 20 40
Standardized % bias across covariates
innovation
shareholders
specialisation
fdi
management
education
exports
eco-friendly
age
Stratification
Unmatched
Matched
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Fig.A.2. Standardized percentage bias across
covariates before and after matching (Radius).
Fig.A.3. Standardized percentage bias across
covariates before and after matching (Kernel).
Acknowledgements:
We are grateful to three anonymous referees as well
as Theodore Lianos, and Harry Papapanagos for
constructive comments. Errors remain ours.
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