Opportunities, Threats and Risks of Implementation the Innovative

Business Management Technologies in the Post-Pandemic Period

COVID-19

SERGII ILLIASHENKO

Department of Management of Innovative Entrepreneurship and International Economic Relations,

National Technical University «Kharkіv Polytechnic Institute»,

Kyrpychova 2, 61002, Kharkiv, UKRAINE

ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5484-9788

University of Economics and Humanities,

POLAND

OLENA BILOVODSKA

Department of International Economics and Marketing,

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv,

Volodymyrska 60, 01033, Kyiv, UKRAINE

ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3707-0734

TETIANA TSALKO

Department of Management and Smart Innovation,

Kyiv National University of Technologies and Design,

Nemirovich-Danchenko 2, 01011, Kyiv, UKRAINE

ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4609-8846

OLESIA TOMCHUK

Department of Management and Behavioral Economics,

Vasyl’s Stus Donetsk National University,

21, 600-richya 21, 21021, Vinnytsia, UKRAINE

ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1817-7483

SVITLANA NEVMERZHYTSKA

Department of Management and Smart Innovation,

Kyiv National University of Technologies and Design,

Nemirovich-Danchenko 2, 01011, Kyiv, UKRAINE

ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5392-9030

NATALIIA BUHAS

Department of Management and Smart Innovation,

Kyiv National University of Technologies and Design,

Nemirovich-Danchenko 2, 01011, Kyiv, UKRAINE

ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5858-0285

Abstract: - This paper is devoted to the development of an approach to substantiate the feasibility of using

innovative technologies for doing business in not innovative leaders countries in the post-pandemic period

considering the associated risks. The main directions and technologies of successful business activity in the

conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic are defined and systematized, their main characteristics are outlined. On

the example of Ukraine, as a basis of relevant knowledge the possibilities of using this results for a reasonable

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DOI: 10.37394/23207.2022.19.107

Sergii Illiashenko, Olena Bilovodska,

Tetiana Tsalko, Olesia Tomchuk,

Svitlana Nevmerzhytska, Nataliia Buhas

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assessment to implementing the innovative technologies for doing business within selected areas in the post-

pandemic COVID-19. Approbation of practical using this base to substantiate the choice of specific innovative

technologies for doing business is performed. The methodological approach to the analysis and risk assessment

of using the innovative technologies for doing business in the post- pandemic period is improved. It is based on

the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy logic which allows to multifactor analysis risks of the innovative projects,

considering the diverse vague effects of individual factors. This approach provides an opportunity to make

decisions to justify the selection and implementation of innovative projects in the context of inaccurate,

incomplete or contradictory information considering the associated risks. The obtained results prove that it can

be used to justify innovative technologies for doing business in COVID-19 and post-pandemic period in not

innovative leaders countries, which economic environment is characterized by incomplete certainty and high

risks.

Key-Words: - business development directions, innovative business technologies, COVID-19 pandemic,

opportunities and threats of innovative development, knowledge base, innovation risks

Received: September 11, 2021. Revised: May 16, 2022. Accepted: June 8, 2022. Published: July 22, 2022.

1 Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an economic

downturn in almost every country in the world.

Gradual economic recovery has been visible after the

implementation of the system of measures to

overcome the pandemic and its impact. However,

during a pandemic, organisations within various

industries made several innovative changes, which

were introduced in the search for ways to survive and

develop during the restrictions period due to the fight

against COVID-19. In particular, the transfer of many

activities online (communications with economic

counterparties: product promotion, receiving orders,

Internet consulting, etc.), remote work, expansion of

the functions and scope of activities of product

delivery services, and more. Some of these changes

transpired to be temporary, and some introduced

significant changes in the way business is conducted.

Analysis of these changes shows that some of them

provide opportunities for innovative growth in the

post-pandemic period, while others are associated

with specific threats. Thus, the problem of analysing

and systematising the main opportunities and threats

of innovative development of organisations during the

post-COVID-19 pandemic arises.

This problem is especially relevant for not

leaders countries in innovation growth, which are

characterized by permanent instability of the

economic and socio-political environment with

significantly exacerbated by the COVID-19

pandemic. The instability and limited resources to

ensure innovative growth make high requirements

for the choice’s justification of innovative

development directions by business structures

especially according to the conditions and trends of

the external macro- and micro-environment, their

existing potential for innovative development,

minimizing associated risks etc. Ukraine should be

singled out among these countries, because a factor

of war is added to these factors of instability and

risks. It will significantly complicate economic

recovery and the transition to its growth in the

postwar period.

The importance to considering the risks in

substantiating innovative technologies of doing

business in the post-pandemic period is evidenced

by the data of the risks analysis caused or

exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and their

impact on the economy of Ukraine. Analysis and

consensus forecast of risks (average forecast of

groups of respondents) for the period 2020-2024 was

performed by the Ministry of Economic

Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine

together with the UNICEF Office in Ukraine [26].

Based on the results of the analysis the average

values of the main forecast risk indicators are

calculated as the median of expert integrated

assessments of survey participants (leading experts

and scientific youth) in the field of macro-analysis

and forecasting (Table 1). Integral assessment is

calculated as the multiplication of the risk

probability score (significant probability (50% or

more) - 4 points, average probability (30-49%) - 3,

moderate probability (10-29%) - 2, low probability

(less than 10%) - 1), the risk is not probable - 0) and

score its impact on the economy of Ukraine

(significant impact - 4; moderate impact - 3; weak

impact - 2; minor impact - 1; no impact - 0).

Accordingly the maximum integrated risk

assessment is 16 points, the minimum is 0.

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Table 1. Integrated forecast estimates (median values) of the main types of risks posed to the economy of

Ukraine by the COVID-19 pandemic provided by groups of respondents

Risks

Youth

Experts

2021

2022

2023

2024

2021

2022

2023

2024

External risks

New global crisis (due to the breakdown of

established industrial communications,

bankruptcy of industrial producers in the EU /

world)

Lack of external financing and narrowing

opportunities for access to international capital

markets

Exit of non-residents from Domestic

Government Bonds

Strengthening hybrid threats to Ukraine's

national security, including active military

confrontation in the east

Introduction of new trade barriers for domestic

exports by other countries

Internal risks

Reforms are not fast enough

Significant increase in the state budget deficit

and cash gaps in the Pension Fund and other

State Social Insurance Funds

Significant decline in effective demand of the

population

Increasing the insolvency of the real economy

sector

It should be noted that data in Table 1 do not take

into account the factor of war with Russia, which

significantly increases the risks.

2 Literature Review

The perspective of identifying ways to ensure the

survival and development of organizations in the

context of the COVID-19 pandemic and the post-

pandemic period is studied in the works of many

scientists, as well as analytical materials. These

studies can be grouped into the following areas:

1. Research is devoted to improving the methods

of state support for business during the pandemic

and post-pandemic period. In the paper [6], the

results of a survey of business structures on the work

of Ukrainian business in the context of the COVID-

19 pandemic were presented. In particular, the

author determined existing problems; the degree of

satisfaction with the measures taken by the

authorities; requirements and vision of the future

enterprise development, etc. The paper [19] is

devoted to the analysis of means of ecosystem

support for business in the COVID-19 pandemic,

introduced in the EU countries and in Ukraine.

Within the framework, recommendations for

improving ways of state support for business during

a pandemic in Ukraine were proposed. In the paper

[22], the problems of doing small business in

Ukraine in a pandemic are disclosed, an analysis of

legislative acts that should facilitate activities is

presented, and their main drawbacks are identified.

The most acceptable area of activity for small

enterprises, in which they can be competitive, have

been determined. The paper [12] is devoted to

identifying priorities for the development and state

support of entrepreneurship in Ukraine to accelerate

the recovery in the context of the COVID-19

pandemic. In the paper [29] efficiency and

accessibility of microcredits for small Ukrainian

enterprises and the feasibility of strengthening

government contributions in lending to ensure the

sustainable development of small businesses

substantiates are investigated and the need to

strengthen state support for micro crediting of small

Ukrainian enterprises in the context of the COVID-

19 pandemic is justified.

2. Research is revealed the problems and

prospects of international support and regulation

the business development in a pandemic. A study of

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Williams O.D. [28] is worth noting, it examines how

the pandemic has produced a mass markets failure in

private health services globally, particularly in the

tertiary or hospital sector. In the paper [21] the

cluster investment to solve the problem of

“reorienting international investment flows, under

the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, from

traditional directions to projects related to social

transformation” is proposed. It is proved that first

such transformations should be expressed in

qualitative changes in education, medicine and

employment”. In the article [10] the transformation

drivers and technologies for responding the

disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are

investigated. In the paper [23] identified threats and

opportunities of the Ukraine - EU Free Trade Area

and priority forms of cooperation and determined the

mutual economic interests to develop cooperation in

the IT field of Ukraine and the EU, which “requires

support and involvement of both parties in

improving regulatory conditions and integration

mechanisms”. The authors [3] analysed “the

individual macroeconomic indicators that

characterise the national innovation system between

countries”.

3. Research on various aspects of business

digitalization as one of the main directions of

ensuring its development in the context of COVID-

19. The paper [7] proposes strategic approaches to

business digitalisation, based on the experience of

leading world companies. It also shows that the

leading companies in the world and Ukraine are

actively introducing new products and services

based on the active use of computer information

technologies and these technologies are both

effective for their manufacturers (suppliers) and

convenient and safe for consumers. The paper [25]

focused on defining the main directions for the

introduction of information computer technologies

to counter the negative impact of COVID-19 on

various aspects of ensuring the life of the Ukrainian

society, in particular: business, public

administration, everyday life, and other. The author

investigated the experience of digitalisation during

COVID-19 in various countries of the world and

outlined the possibilities of its use in Ukraine. In the

paper [30] the analysis of digital business

technologies, their advantages in the post-pandemic

period are determined as: efficiency; productivity;

security; adaptability; customer satisfaction etc.

4. Research on methods of marketing and

information support for business in a pandemic. In

the work [13], the specificities of doing restaurant

business in the context of a pandemic were

investigated. In the paper [11] strategic marketing

support according to sustainable development for

green tourism business based on the results of

COVID-19 pandemic impact is proposed. In the

paper [2] the formation of innovative susceptibility

of enterprises to low-potential energy innovative

technologies is discussed. In the article [9] the

conceptual model of network consulting and

organizing communication processes to provide

information support of entrepreneurial activity is

proposed.

Analysis of literary sources shows that the main

measures to ensure the survival and development of

business and other types of enterprise activity in the

COVID-19 pandemic are related to various aspects

of digitalisation: marketing and logistics, the system

of providing government and consulting services,

etc. Actions related to the development of a system

for delivering products to consumers by ordering via

the Internet or by phone are effective. Innovative

technologies for remote work of employees of

organisations in various fields of activity are

advancing production, consulting, schoolchildren

and students teaching, etc. However, the issues of

assessing the opportunities and threats of innovative

growth based on these products and technologies in

the post-pandemic period is still poorly researched.

The answer to them will allow to analyse possible

alternatives and purposefully choose promising

directions for the introduction of these and other

innovative products and technologies, considering

their existing risks.

Thus, the purpose of the article is to determine

the prospects and threats of business development in

Ukraine based on innovative technologies that have

proven their effectiveness during the COVID-19

pandemic and to develop an approach to assessing

the feasibility of their use by not innovative leaders

countries in the post-pandemic times, considering

the associated risks. The main objectives of the

research are:

- determination of the main directions of successful

business activities in a pandemic.

- determination and systematisation of

characteristics of directions and innovative

technologies for business in a pandemic

according to the following scheme: direction,

types of activities within the direction, interests

of manufacturers (service providers), interests of

consumers, main threats to the implementation

of this area of activity.

- testing on practice of the systematised

characteristics as an information base for

assessing the feasibility of developing specific

organisations within the designated areas during

the post-pandemic times.

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- determination of an approach to the analysis and

assessment of market risks of the application of

innovative business technologies in the post-

coronavirus period.

3 Materials and Methods

The following methods were used in the research

process. Based on the analysis of literary and

analytical sources, the main research directions were

determined, within - innovative products and

technologies used to solve problems related to doing

business (protecting human life in general) in the

context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Taking into

account business practices of organisations in

various industries and forms of management and

using faulty generalization method for the analysis

results, the paper indicates the existing problems and

threats associated with the introduction of these

innovative products and technologies. The SWOT-

analysis method was used to assess the feasibility of

freelance development in Ukraine as one of the most

promising areas for organising remote work in post-

pandemic conditions.

The methods of structural analysis and synthesis

were used to improve the approach to assessing

market risks for the introduction of innovative

business technologies in the post-pandemic period.

The mathematical tool - fuzzy logic method was

used for multifactorial risk assessment in the

opposing effects conditions. In this case, the risk

factors influence was assessed using confidence

coefficients (CC) - it reflects the degree of certainty

of the true or false value about the presence of risk

(on the influence of specific risk factors on its total

value). The interval of the confidence coefficient

values is shown in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1: Scale of the confidence coefficient (CC) values

for the success or failure of an innovation project

Source: [4]

Positive values indicate the probable success of

an innovative project (no risk), negative - about its

probable failure (presence of risk).

As can be seen from Fig. 1, the confidence

coefficients take values from -1 to +1. With a

confidence level of -1, it is considered that a

negative event will surely occur, and with a

confidence level of +1, it probably will not.

The left side of the scale in Fig.1 is designed to

evaluate the falsity of favourable events occurring

(failure of an innovative project), and the right one -

to assess the veracity (success of an innovative

project). The confidence factor is a combination of

two scores:

CC = І – Х, (1)

I is the assessment of the veracity of a favourable

event occurring (from 0 to +1), X is the assessment

of the falsity of a favourable event occurring (from 0

to -1)

The combination of assessments of independent

evidence of the presence or absence of risk

(evaluation of the degree of influence of risk factors

on its value) is performed according to the following

rules [4]:

СС0 = СС1+СС2  (1 - СС1),

if СС1> 0 and СС2 > 0 (2)

СС0 = -[│СС1│+│СС2│ (1 -│СС1│)],

if СС1 < 0 and СС2 < 0 (3)

СС0 = 

󰇛󰆤󰆤󰆤󰆤󰇜,

if СС1 and СС2 have different signs (4)

When a combination of indications is with +1

and -1 coefficients, it is considered that C0 = +1.

These rules, in contrast to other approaches,

allow to obtain a cumulative (integrated) assessment

of multidirectional vague influences of factors that

determine the degree of risk in analysed project. It

allows to make justified decisions in terms of

inaccurate, incomplete or inconsistent information.

4 Results and Discussion

4.1 Definition and Classification of the Main

Directions and Technologies for Conducting

Successful Business Activities during the COVID-

19 Pandemic, as well as Their Characteristics

The following main directions for conducting

successful business activities (protecting human life

in general) in the context of COVID-19 have been

identified.

1. Digitalization of activities. Global and

domestic practice shows that in recent decades

active transfer of many types of human activity to

-0.6

-0.2

+0.2

+0.6

+0.8

-1.0

Almost certainly yes

(+0,8 < CC < +1,0)

Most likely yes

(+0.6 < CC ≤ +0.8)

Most likely not

(-0.8 ≤ CC < -0.6)

Almost certainly not

(-1.0 < СС < -0.8)

Evidence pro exist

(+0.2 < CC≤+0.6)

Evidence against exist

(-0.6 ≤CC< -0.2)

Indefinite

(-0.2 ≤CC≤ -0.2)

+1.0

-0.8

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the Internet occurred [5; 14; 15; 17]. However, the

pandemic has accelerated this process. This is

beneficial both for businesses (sellers of goods and

services), service providers, etc., and for consumers.

Due to quarantine conditions, consumers began to

buy products, which were previously buying in

physical stores, like food, household items,

cosmetics etc., via the Internet. On-line platforms for

the purchase and sale of agricultural products:

national, regional, local, and the like were created.

Internet consulting (on-line or off-line) of medical

workers, insurance companies, lawyers, sales

consultants, etc. is developing. However, according

to [1], access to the Internet in Ukraine (61.5% of

households) is less than in leading countries that are

leaders in innovative growth (about 90% of

households and more). And this, because of the

limited access of citizens to the Internet, threatens to

increase discrimination and polarization of people.

2. Remote work of the organizations’ employees.

Quarantine restrictions for traveling, gathering,

maintaining social distance, etc. initiated the

development of remote work for those organisations,

which do not need to use special machines,

mechanisms and those tools are stationary. This

created opportunities for businessmen and personnel

to independently organize their time and space,

constantly keep in touch and coordinate activities

with delivery services and much more. In addition, it

opens new opportunities for freelancing. Ukrainian

freelancers have proven their proficiency both in the

domestic and global markets. Ukraine is one of the

world leaders in terms of growth of the freelance

market, in 2019 it placed 5th in the global ranking

[24].

It should be noted that in several Ukrainian

organizations introduction of remote work shows

high efficiency. In addition, workers have already

formed certain habits and are not averse to working

remotely even after the end of the pandemic. In a

few cases, the management of organizations

supports such an initiative, because they can save

money on premises rental, personnel support, bills

for heat and electricity, etc.

However, there are many activities that cannot be

performed remotely and require production facilities

and special equipment. In addition, remote work is

associated with the risk of decline in interaction of a

workplace team, a decrease in socialization, etc.

This can also entail certain negative consequences,

such as psychological problems of employees that

negatively affect their health and productivity.

3. Development of logistics activities related to

the delivery of products ordered online or by phone,

etc. Digitalization of business processes, in

particular, Internet communications of

manufacturers (service providers) with consumers,

contributes to the development of delivery services,

for example, Nova Poshta or Ukrposhta, and new

ones. Survey of consumers on their experience with

delivery services shows that they quickly get used to

new opportunities and form new stereotypes of

consumer behavior. This allows us to infer the

growing popularity of the relevant services among

consumers, as well as the prospects for the growth of

this business after the pandemic.

However, there are problems in delivering

products to distant consumers (for example, in rural

areas). These problems are associated with the

timeliness of delivery, maintaining product quality,

etc.

It appears from the foregoing that these areas of

activity involve the active use of information and

communication technologies. In this case, both well-

known, standardized software products are used, as

well as new ones developed for a specific user. It

should be noted that Ukraine's IT positions in the

world are high, the country is one of the largest

exporters of IT services (about $ 5 billion per year),

almost 100 Fortune 500 companies are among

clients [18].

Data in the Table 2 can be further used as a basis

of relevant knowledge in justifying the feasibility of

growth of specific organizations within the selected

areas in the post-pandemic COVID-19.

Table 2. Presents the results of the analysis and systematization of the opportunities and threats of the above-

identified areas of doing business in the context of a pandemic and the post-COVID period

Direction

Type of activity

(products or

technologies)

Interest of producers (service

providers)

Interest of consumers

(recipients of

services)

Threats

Digitalisation of

activities

Electronic

services for

ordering the

manufacture,

purchase and

sale of products

(provision of

Affordability, does not require

a lot of start-up capital;

aligning the competitive

opportunities of small and

medium-sized businesses with

large ones, because they all

use almost the same Internet

Convenience, avai-

lability, possibility

to save time and

money, the ability

to independently

plan the time of

receipt of products

Almost 40% of the po-

pulation does not have

access to the Internet.

Reluctance (technolo-

gical, finan-cial) to use

the Internet by the

population of older age

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services)

technologies;

and services.

groups and those living

in remote areas

Direction

Type of activity

(products or

technologies)

Interest of producers (service

providers)

Interest of consumers

(recipients of

services)

Threats

Digitalisation of

activities

Internet consulting:

financial, insurance,

medical, marketing,

etc.

high communication

ability, availability of

appropriate services 24

hours a day, instant

payments; the ability to

communicate in real time

and coordinate activities

with delivery services, etc.

Ability to quickly enter

remote markets

Ability to quickly

compare

alternatives to

obtain the desired

item

As a result:

geographical, age,

technological

discrimination;

polarization of

population groups

Provision of

administrative

services

Remote work

Work as an

employee of the

organization

Ability for employees to

independently plan and

organize time and space of

activity. Savings on

production facilities and

operating costs

Ability to quickly

make and receive

orders from remote

consumers,

including periods

during quarantine

restrictions

Lack of direct

communication and

exchange of ideas with

colleagues,

psychological

discomfort, constant

self-organization, loss

of social contacts

Freelance

Attractiveness for young

professionals looking for

work. Attractiveness for

highly qualified

professionals seeking to

work independently

Constant search for

orders, instability of

incomes, probability to

be deceived, expenses

for the arrangement of

a workplace, lack of

communication with

colleagues

Logistics

activities

Warehousing and

storage of products

Growth in demand during

quarantine restrictions, as

well as projected growth in

the post-pandemic period

due to consumer

habituation

Convenience for

consumers: place

and time of

delivery, delivery

volumes, complete

set of products, etc.

Difficulties in

servicing remote

regions. Geographical

discrimination of

consumers

Delivery of products

to customers

4.2 Practical Approbation of the Use of

Systematized Characteristics as a Knowledge

Base for a Reasonable Assessment of the

Feasibility of Business Development within the

Selected Areas in the Post-Pandemic Period

COVID-19

The consolidated assessment of expediency was

performed by the method of SWOT-analysis. A part

of such analysis performed to assess the feasibility

of freelance development in Ukraine is given in the

table 3-4. Listed in Table 4 strengths of freelance are

significant and in combination with market

opportunities indicate a high chance of success in

the development of this type of employment. The

weakest aspects of freelance are the lack of social

guarantees and high chances of fraud from the

customer (employer or client), other negative aspects

are less significant.

Table 3. Market opportunities and threats of

freelance development in Ukraine

Opportunities

Threats

Expansion of activities

that do not require the

presence of an

employee

Legislative unregulated

activities of freelancers

Growing popularity and

profitability of

freelancing for clients

The need-to-know

foreign languages to

work in foreign markets

The possibility of going

abroad and receiving a

high salary

The need to form an

image, rating, etc.,

which affects the

payment

Availability of Internet

services for employees

Limited work that can

be done on a freelance

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and customers

basis

Attractive working

conditions

Table 4. Strengths and weaknesses of Ukrainian

freelancers

Strength

Weaknesses

Young professionals

with a high level of

education who

cannot find a job

Profit instability

Qualified

professionals who

want to work

independently

Constant self-organization

and the need to perform

various tasks

High image of

Ukrainian freelancers

Probability of being

deceived

Constant search for orders

Lack of communication

with colleagues

Lack of social guarantees

Workplace costs

The obtained results prove the high chances of

developing freelance form of employment in

Ukraine. It provides employment, reduces

unemployment caused by COVID-19 and the post-

pandemic period, promotes the entry of domestic

workers into international labor markets.

Similarly, the assessment of the feasibility of

introducing other innovative technologies for doing

business in the post-pandemic period, which are

listed in Table 2.

4.3 Analysis and Risk Assessment of Introducing

Innovative Business Technologies in the post-

COVID Period

One of the main reasons hindering the introduction

of innovative business technologies is the high-risk

degree. In the general case, the following causes of

innovation risks are identified:

- inaccuracy, incompleteness and inconsistency

of knowledge on the basis of which innovative

decisions are made;

- unexpected changes in the conditions of

innovative activity caused by the action of factors of

the external and internal environment;

- active opposition of other market participants

that influence (may influence) the innovation

process.

Insufficient risk accounting leads to the fact that,

on the one hand, innovative technologies for doing

business may not correspond to existing realities

(this leads to direct losses), on the other hand,

technologies that have every chance of successful

implementation (lost profit) are "cut off".

A significant degree of uncertainty and the risk

caused by the introduction of innovative business

technologies requires the development of measures

to artificially reduce it, which requires an accurate

assessment not only of the magnitude of possible

losses and the probability of their occurrence, but

also the impact of individual factors on overall risk

corresponding the introduction of innovative

technology (hereinafter referred to as an innovative

project).

The following approach is proposed for risk

analysis. The risk of each innovative project is

considered as an equivalent set of elementary risks

of different nature (they can be detailed by impact

factors) at the stages of their implementation [8; 20;

27]. In particular, there are:

- external risks caused by macro-environmental

factors: economic, political and legal, socio-

demographic, environmental, technological;

- external risks caused by micro environmental

factors: consumer, competitive, supplier, investment,

intermediary, contact;

- internal risks caused by the actions of persons

making decisions at the stages of development and

implementation of an innovative project.

Since some of the elementary risks may occur

simultaneously, and some are mutually exclusive, it

is necessary to distinguish between compatible and

incompatible risks.

In compatible unfavourable situations can be

realized simultaneously, thereby increasing the

possible total damage. For example, non-compliance

by suppliers (full or partial) with the conditions of

supply of raw materials, materials and components

threatens losses, as the conditions of supply of

finished products to consumers may be disrupted.

The scale of losses will increase if at the same time

there are delays in the receipt of payment for

products previously shipped to other consumers.

In incompatible occurrence of one adverse event

excludes another. For example, losses can be caused

both by the decision to change the structure of a

particular unit, and unwillingness to change it.

However, these situations cannot happen

simultaneously.

For the analysis and assessment of elementary

risks can be used any of the known methods,

comparative analysis of which is given in Table 5.

By combining a set of compatible and incompatible

risks determine the overall risk of the innovation

project.

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Svitlana Nevmerzhytska, Nataliia Buhas

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Тable 5. Comparative analysis of quantitative methods of risk assessment

Method

Core

Required data

Accuracy of

assessment

Advantages

Disadvantages

Statistical

The expected level

of risk (risk ratio)

of this type of

activity is

calculated and

applies to one of

the risk areas

Data on past

management

periods: reliable

statistics for at

least 3-5

periods; capital

of the enterprise;

enterprise

assets; income,

profit, etc.

Low

Simplicity

calculations

In the conditions of

drastic changes of

internal and external

environment is almost

never used. Focuses on

affirming the existing

situation, not on

predicting future

results

Analytical

Used to assess the

effectiveness of

investment and

innovation projects

(PP, NPV, IRR, RI)

Detailed

information

about the project

or type of

activity: project

costs, results,

number of years

needed for

project

implementation,

project life

cycle, discount

rate

Moderate

Simplicity

calculations

The impact of specific

risk factors is not

taken into account, so

it cannot be used per

se to accurately

evaluate the risk of

projects

Financial

stability

Is used to assess the

financial stability

of an enterprise or

to evaluate the

feasibility of

investing in an

investment project.

And on this basis,

identify potential

risk areas

Balance sheet of

the enterprise:

own funds

(fixed and

current); long-

term, medium-

term loans and

borrowings;

the total amount

of stocks and

their costs

Moderate

Simplicity

calculations

Ignores the impact of

specific risk factors on

the growth or

reduction of the risk of

the project (type of

activity)

Normative

The values of

financial ratios for

a particular

enterprise are

calculated and

compared with the

normative values.

Balance sheet of

the enterprise:

the main

financial

indicators of

activity

Low

Simplicity

and

efficiency

calculations

Leaves out the

influence of individual

risk factors. It can be

recommended to "cut

off" clearly

unacceptable

decisions.

Sensitivity

analysis

The sensitivity of

the estimated

indicators of the

project when

changing the values

of input quantities

Detailed

information

about the project

or type of

activity

Moderate

Objectivity,

transparenc

simplicity

calculations

, clarity of

results

interpretati

With its help, the

range of permissible

changes in the input

values can be

distinguished, but the

change value itself

can’t be determined

Method

Core

Required data

Accuracy of

Advantages

Disadvantages

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assessment

Decision

making tree

Used to identify

specific risk factors

and the

consequences of

their impact

Risk factors and

consequences of

their influence

High

Accounting the

influence of

individual risk

factors

Difficulties in

choosing

solutions and

assessing their

impact on future

developments.

Analogies

Information about a

similar project is

analysed: risk

factors and the

degree of its

impact; scale and

probability of

losses, etc. Based

on this information,

the degree of risk is

predicted

Data on similar

projects that

were performed

under

comparable

conditions are

used to assess

the risk.

Invariance of

economic

conditions

Low

Allows to

evaluate the

degree of risk,

provided the

project is similar

Each project has

its own

distinctive

features and

specifics of

implementation,

which does not

allow to prepare a

comprehensive

set of scenarios

Expert

assessment

Risk assessment is

based on the

subjective opinions

of experts in a

particular field

Lack of

information

Low

Allows to assess

risks with lack

information

Quite a subjective

method

It is proposed to identify elementary risks

according to the scheme: essence of risk - possible

consequences - risk factors. For each of the

elementary risks of an innovative project, a

structure (model) is formed that combines risk

factors (structure attributes) and the possible

consequences of the influence of their various

combinations. These models can be implemented

as a decision tree or table.

So, the following scheme of calculations for the

analysis and risk assessment to the use of

innovative technologies for doing business in the

post-panvemic period is proposed.

1. Analysing the innovation project essence and

selecting the elementary risks of its successful

implementation according to the scheme

(causes and nature of risk, possible

consequences, risk factors).

2. Constructing the tabular model of the project’s

overall risk to combine selected risk factors into

single system according to paragraph 1.

3. Expert evaluating the factors’ impact (direction

and strength) into each elementary risks. The

assessment is performed using the coefficients

of confidence on the scale in Fig. 1.

4. Calculating the generalized assessment of each

elementary risks by combining estimates of its

factors according to rules (2-4).

5. Calculating the integrated risk assessment of the

project by combining generalized assessments of

elementary risks according to rules (2-4).

6. Analysing the calculation results. Making

decisions on the feasibility of implementing the

innovative project at certain level of risk.

Development of measures to prevent, reduce or

compensate for risk.

By combining a set of compatible and

incompatible risks determine the overall risk of the

innovation project.

The integral (resulting) coefficient of confidence

is found by the rules (formulas 2-4):

СС01= 

  

СС02=   󰇛  󰇜 

СС03=

  

СС04=

  

Therefore, the integral (resulting) coefficient of

confidence is +0.64. This indicates that the threat of

failure of the analysed innovation project, which

involves the construction of a logistics terminal,

likely does not exist (the risk of failure is minimal).

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Тable 6. Tabular model for multifactor assessment of risks associated with the decision to establish a logistics

terminal in the Sumy region

Stage

Risk causes

Possible

consequences

Risk factors

Influence

factors

degree

(expert

evaluation)

Total

figure

Inadequate

definition of the

main directions of

development of

the terminal and

erroneous

assessment of the

possibilities of its

placement

Difficulties or

impossibilities to

place the terminal in

due time, deliver new

products to the target

consumers,

difficulties with sales

- biased analysis;

- underestimation or

overestimation of opportunities;

- insufficient qualification

of experts;

- errors in the assessment of

logistics capabilities

-0.2

-0.4

+0.4

+0.1

-0.11

Errors in the

choice of market

research areas,

deficiency of the

methodology of

collecting

marketing

information, as

well as methods

of analysis of

marketing

information, their

incorrect

application,

mistakes in the

interpretation of

the results

Location of the

terminal far from the

regions of production

and sales, non-

compliance of the

service with market

requirements,

inadequate strategy of

market entering with

new products,

increasing the cost of

refining research

- violation of the

representativeness principle in

determining the sample for

analysis;

- lack of collected

information;

- focus on unreliable

sources of information;

- insufficient qualification

of employees who collect

information and analyse it;

- bias of analysis and

decision making;

- ignoring local conditions

and traditions in the regions of

consumption

+0.6

-0.5

+0.7

+0.2

-0.3

-0.5

+0.46

Errors of the

organization or

department

conducting design

and research

work,

inconsistency of

actions of process

participants

Irrational location of

the terminal relative

to suppliers, high

transport costs and

production costs

- work inconsistencies

between employees of economic

contractors;

- insufficient or incorrect

information;

- low qualification of

employees;

- insufficient provision of

resources in the region;

- untimely settlements

-0.4

+0.2

+0.5

+0.9

-0.4

+0.89

Incorrect

assessment of

opportunities and

requirements of

investors

Lack of funds, non-

compliance with the

terms of

commissioning of the

facility and, as a

consequence, delays

in the market entry

and loss of market

positions

- inconsistency of actions of

management and investors;

- dishonesty by both the

investment recipient and the

investor;

- deterioration of the

financial condition of the investor;

- not predicted drastic

changes in the economic or socio-

political situation

-0.5

+0.3

-0.5

-0.4

-0.78

Stage

Risk causes

Possible

Risk factors

Influence

Total

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consequences

factors

degree

(expert

evaluation)

figure

Incorrect

understanding of

the task, errors in

forecast

calculations,

inconsistencies in

the actions of all

participants in the

process

Loss of profit, project

failure

- shortcomings committed

in the previous stages (see above);

- decisions bias;

- not predicted drastic

changes in the economic or socio-

political situation

+0.2

+0.3

-0.5

-0.12

Therefore, the integral (resulting) coefficient of

confidence is +0.64. This indicates that the threat of

failure of the analysed innovation project, which

involves the construction of a logistics terminal,

likely does not exist (the risk of failure is minimal).

But you should pay attention to those stages

where the coefficients of confidence values less than

0. Namely: assessment of the logistics terminal's

own capabilities (some risk evidence are shown), in

stage 1;

- search for funding sources and the formation

of a mechanism for investment support of the

project (most likely the risk is inevitable if

the measures are not taken), stage 4;

- development of a proposal for decisions on

project implementation and direct decision-

making (the presence of risk is uncertain, but

the possibility of its occurrence should not be

ruled out), stage 5.

All listed in Table 6 risks are compatible, i.e. can

reinforce each other. In this case, the possible losses

at the stages of the project realisation must be added.

To do this, it is necessary to calculate the magnitude

of possible losses at the stages of implementation

(considering the probability of an adverse event

occurrence), adding them up and comparing with the

total cost of the project. The formulas for calculating

the coefficients of confidence (column 6 of table 6)

in the probability are given in [4] and should be

used.

Based on the results of the analysis, decisions are

made regarding measures to reduce (prevent or

compensate) the risk. Practice shows that one of the

most effective ways to reduce innovation risks is to

obtain the fullest possible knowledge about the

specificities of the development and implementation

of an innovation project and its possible

consequences. According to [16] effective ways to

acquire knowledge in Ukrainian enterprises are:

marketing; R&D both in-house and outsource;

purchase of knowledge; in-house and outsource

training. An analysis of these methods from the

standpoint of the enterprise innovator also showed

their high efficiency. However, the specifics of

innovation also involve forecasting future

improvements based on innovative solutions, which

requires the use of specific methods of obtaining

knowledge, in particular those mentioned in [14]:

trend watching, trend hunting and others. The

knowledge acquired this way provides an

opportunity to increase the validity of innovative

solutions and reduce risk.

Summarising, it should be noted that

methodological principles have been developed to

outline the prospects and threats of innovative

business growth in Ukraine based on products and

technologies that have proven effectiveness during

the COVID-19 pandemic to reasonably assess their

feasibility in the post-pandemic period. The

composition and characteristics of innovative

technologies of doing business in Ukraine in the

post-pandemic period were determined and

systematised, the provided information forms the

knowledge base for a reasonable choice of

technologies for specific types of business. A paper

suggests approaches to associated risks calculation.

The obtained results deepen the theoretical and

methodological principles of innovation

management in terms of substantiation of the

approach to the formation of organisational and

economic mechanism for managing the choice of

innovative technologies of doing business in the

post-pandemic Ukraine. This principals practical

implementation will allow to choose the rational

directions of innovative business development,

considering the associated risks of each analysed

areas (innovative projects for its implementation).

Multifactor assessment of elementary risks and their

total value (integrated assessment) allows you to

assess the impact of each factors on the overall risk

of the innovation project, and the impact of their

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whole. This, in turn, provides an opportunity to

reasonably develop measures to minimize risks.

5 Conclusion

In summary, the work identified and systematized

the main directions and innovative technologies for

running successful business in the not innovative

leaders countries (on example Ukraine) during the

COVID-19 pandemic. The systematisation of their

characteristics was done according to the following

scheme: direction, types of activities within the

direction, interests of manufacturers (service

providers), interests of consumers (clients), main

threats to the implementation of this practice. Unlike

the existing systematisation, it considers the groups

of interests of the main market participants, as well

as the main threats associated with the peculiarities

of the implementation of these innovative

technologies in in countries embarked on the path of

innovative development.

This allows us to describe in more detail the

existing prerequisites for innovative development, to

increase the validity of the strategic directions of

innovative development of specific types of

business determination. The results of the

systematisation form the basis of a relevant

knowledge base about the peculiarities of the

implementation of directions and, within them,

innovative technologies for doing business in a

pandemic and post-COVID period. It can be

implemented to improve the validity of business

technology decisions in countries embarked on the

path of innovative development. Practical testing of

justification of feasibility of freelance development

in Ukraine using the specified knowledge base has

confirmed the effectiveness of its application for

making strategic decisions on business management

in a post-pandemic time.

The approach to the analysis and quantification

of risks of innovative business technologies that

have shown its effectiveness during COVID-19

pandemic has been improved. The paper defined the

risk of an innovative project implementation (a

specific method for innovative business technology

introduction) as an equivalent to basic risks caused

by certain number of factors peculiar only to these

threats. The division of the elementary risks into

compatible - those that occur simultaneously and

toughen each other, as well as incompatible - one

excludes the other, was shown. Proposed approach

allows to assess the overall risk of the innovation

project and make more informed innovation

decisions more precisely. This method excludes

both double risks computing and ignorance of the

combined action of several types. The mathematical

fuzzy logic apparatus provides a fundamental

opportunity to consider the vague actions of risk

factors and their combinations. It allows to make

decisions to justify the selection and implementation

of innovative projects in the context of inaccurate,

incomplete or contradictory information considering

the associated risks, objective and subjective factors.

For the practical testing author’s approach the

risks are analysed and the implementation feasibility

in the conditions of COVID-19 and the post-

pandemic period for the innovation project, which

involves the creation of a logistics terminal in Sumy

region of Ukraine is justified. Recommendations for

reducing the risks of innovative business

technology’s for the project introduction are offered.

Further research should focus on developing

organisational and methodological principles of

management following the formalised principles of

the innovative technologies selection for doing

business in the post-COVID period in countries

embarked on the path of innovative development.

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Tetiana Tsalko, Olesia Tomchuk,

Svitlana Nevmerzhytska, Nataliia Buhas

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40.

Contribution of Individual Authors to the

Creation of a Scientific Article (Ghostwriting

Policy)

-Sergii ILLIASHENKO analysed and

interpreted the data, prepared the manuscript

text.

-Olena BILOVODSKA performed the literature

review, compiled the data and manuscript

edition.

-Tetiana TSALKO performed the literature review

and some of the remained analyses.

-Olesia TOMCHUK helped in manuscript

preparation, formed visualization and supervised

data.

-Svitlana NEVMERZHYTSKA performed some

of the remained analyses and helped in visualization

and data curation.

-Nataliia BUHAS helped in the literature review,

manuscript preparation and edition

Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0

(Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0)

This article is published under the terms of the

Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en

_US

WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS

DOI: 10.37394/23207.2022.19.107

Sergii Illiashenko, Olena Bilovodska,

Tetiana Tsalko, Olesia Tomchuk,

Svitlana Nevmerzhytska, Nataliia Buhas

E-ISSN: 2224-2899

1229

Volume 19, 2022