The Relationship between Economic Growth and Banking Sector
Development in Ukraine
SVITLANA KACHULA
Department of Finance, Banking and Insurance
Dnipro State Agrarian and Economic University
Serhiy Yefremov street 25, Dnipro 49000
UKRAINE
MAKSYM ZHYTAR
Vice-rector for scientific and pedagogical work
Private institution of higher education "International European University"
Akademika Glushkova Avenue building 42 V Kyiv 03187
UKRAINE
LARYSA SIDELNYKOVA
Department of Finance, Accounting and Taxation
Kherson National Technical University
Berislavske shosse 24 Kherson 73008
UKRAINE
OKSANA PERCHUK
Department of Finance, Accounting and Taxation
Hryhorii Skovoroda University in Pereiaslav
Sukhomlyns’koho street 30 Pereiaslav 08401
UKRAINE
OLENA NOVOSOLOVA
Department of Finance, Accounting and Taxation
Kherson National Technical University
Berislavske shosse 24 Kherson 73008
UKRAINE
Abstract: The paper examines the relationship between economic growth and banking sector indicators in
Ukraine. The constructed empirical model revealed a positive impact of bank deposits on real GDP growth. The
causal relationships between economic growth in Ukraine and the performance of the banking sector are
analyzed using the Granger Causality Test. It is established that banking deposits Granger-cause GDP, while
banking credits do not, but GDP has an effect on banking credits. It is noted that the banking sector of Ukraine
does not play a significant role in the redistribution of capital in the intersectoral and spatial dimensions. It is
defined limiting factors of lending to the private sector and ways to increase the deposit base of banks.
Key-Words: economic growth, GDP, banking sector, banking credits, banking deposits, banking investments.
Received: April 25, 2021. Revised: December 5, 2021. Accepted: January 12, 2022. Published: January 14, 2022.
1 Introduction
Economic growth is a necessary condition for
solving socio-economic problems, such as raising
the population's living standards, ensuring the
welfare of the nation. As it is noted by Bil and
Mulska (2020) [1]: “Limited access to material,
socio-economic, and financial benefits leads to the
processes of marginalization of households,
communities, and regions of the country".
Welfare as a social measuring factor is a strategic
dominant of economic growth. Thus, economic
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2022.19.21
Svitlana Kachula, Maksym Zhytar,
Larysa Sidelnykova, Oksana Perchuk,
Olena Novosolova
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
222
Volume 19, 2022
growth is the crucial aspect of any country's
macroeconomic strategy.
The impact of the financial sector on economic
growth has remained the subject of scientific debate
for decades. The financial sector is an integral part
of the economic system of the state. It plays a
significant role in the redistribution of financial
resources between economic agents.
The financial sector of Ukraine has remained
bank-centric for many years, as of the end of 2020
the share of banking assets in total assets of the
financial sector was 89.6% (Table 1). As for the
level of the financial sector development in Ukraine,
it still remains rather weak. Fig. 1 shows the ratio of
total assets of relevant financial institutions to GDP
in Ukraine.
To compare, at the end of 2019 the Polish
financial landscape was made up of 30 commercial
banks, 538 cooperative banks, and 32 branches of
credit institutions. The size of the banking sector in
terms of GDP (gross domestic product) was 88.3%
[2].
Table 1. Assets structure of the Ukrainian financial sector, %
Financial institution
2015
2016
2018
2020
Banks
88.5
88.8
90.7
89.6
Insurance companies
4.3
3.9
3.0
2.6
Private pension funds
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Financial companies
6.8
6.8
5.9
7.4
Pawnshops
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Credit unions
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Source: National Bank of Ukraine [3]
Fig. 1: Assets of financial institutions in Ukraine, % of GDP
Source: National Bank of Ukraine [3]
Fig. 2: Number of banking institutions in Ukraine, units
Source: National Bank of Ukraine [3]
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2022.19.21
Svitlana Kachula, Maksym Zhytar,
Larysa Sidelnykova, Oksana Perchuk,
Olena Novosolova
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
223
Volume 19, 2022
Fig. 3: Financial intermediation of the Ukrainian banking sector, %
Source: National Bank of Ukraine [3]
It should be noted that the banking sector of
Ukraine has undergone a difficult period of
formation and development. Fig. 2 shows the
number of functioning banking institutions in
Ukraine in 2002-2020. As of January 1, 2021, 74
institutions were operating in the country. Since
2013, more than 100 banks have been declared
insolvent and withdrawn from the market. The
reasons for this were not only military and political
instability and changes in the economic priorities of
the state but also the problems that existed in the
banking system since 2008-2009. Significant
quantitative changes were accompanied by the
restructuring of the banking sector, increasing
requirements for compliance with activity
standards, addressing institutional and functional
problems accumulated in all previous years.
The sharp decline in lending since 2015 is the
result of negative expectations of economic entities
due to economic and military-political events that
led to the outflow of deposits in the banking sector,
reduced solvency of borrowers and a significant
increase in the risk of non-repayment of borrowed
funds.
However, the policy of 'cleansing' the banking
sector resulted in a significant reduction in banking
assets, which became quite noticeable in 2017-2020
Accordingly, it limited opportunities for lending to
the economy. Fig. 3 shows the ratio of bank
deposits to GDP, bank lance to GDP and bank
credits to bank deposits in Ukraine. The withdrawal
of troubled banks from the market increased the
burden on the Deposit Guarantee Fund, which was
forced to borrow funds in the financial market to
make payments.
Another feature of the development of the
banking sector of Ukraine in 2019-2020 was a
significant reduction in the ratio of loans/deposits.
The reason for this was a considerable increase in
banking investments in government bonds of
Ukraine due to fairly high interest rates.
This paper empirically examines the relationship
between the development of the banking sector and
economic growth. The algorithm of our study is
structured as follows: Section II is focused on a
review of the literature on the relationship between
the development of the banking sector and
economic growth. Section III describes the data
sources and methodology for studying the
relationship between the development of the
banking sector and economic growth in Ukraine.
Section IV presents the results of the empirical
model. Section V represents the findings of the
study.
2 Literature Review
The relationship between the banking sector
indicators and economic growth has been studied
by many Ukrainian and foreign scholars. In the
early 20th century, Schumpeter (1911) [4] proved
the positive influence of banks on the growth of
national income through directing funds to the
implementation of the most effective projects.
In the late 1960s, Goldsmith (1969) [5] studied
the relationship between financial and economic
development of 35 countries within the period from
1860 to 1963. He derived the Financial Interrelation
Ratio defined as the value of all financial assets
over GNP. Goldsmith was the first to empirically
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2022.19.21
Svitlana Kachula, Maksym Zhytar,
Larysa Sidelnykova, Oksana Perchuk,
Olena Novosolova
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
224
Volume 19, 2022
establish a unidirectionality of the economic growth
pace and financial development.
McKinnon (1973) [6], studying the relationship
between the level of economic development and the
financial sector in the post-World War II period for
countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Chile,
Germany, Indonesia, Korea, and Taiwan, concluded
that the countries where financial the sector is
functioning better provide higher economic growth
rates as well. As the main reason for this
phenomenon, the scientist considered financial
liberalization, which allows intensifying the
activities of financial intermediaries and, thus, more
effectively redistribute investment to productive
areas.
Levine, Zervos (1998) [7] analyzed the
indicators of the banking sector, stock market, and
economic development in 47 countries from 1976
to 1993. They found that the growth of stock
market liquidity and the development of the
banking sector are positively correlated with
economic growth, capital accumulation, and
productivity growth. Scientists have determined
that one standard-deviation increase in initial stock
market liquidity and the estimated coefficient on
Bank Credit would have increased real GDP per
capita by 31 percent in 18 years, the capital stock
per person would have been 29 percent higher, and
productivity would have been 24 percent greater.
Liang, Reichert (2006) [8], assessing the
relationship between financial development and
economic growth in 70 Emerging and Developing
Countries and 20 Advanced Countries in the period
between 1960 and 2000, found that Granger
causality results showed a stronger relationship in
Emerging and Developing Countries. This confirms
the hypothesis of the "demand-following"
relationship. Herewith, the globalization of
financial markets and the development of
international trade help to balance the tightness of
the relationships between the studied variables in
Emerging / Developing Countries and Advanced
Countries. The authors also state that the direction
of the relationships may change depending on the
stage of the economic cycle.
However, scientific thought provides other
views on the role of the financial sector in ensuring
economic growth. Thus, Robinson (1952) [9]
believed that the development of financial markets
is only a consequence of general economic growth.
It is economic growth that creates the demand for
financial services; thus, the financial sector
responds more to the needs of the real sector of the
economy rather than causing it to grow.
Lucas (1988) [10] noted that the impact of the
financial sector on economic growth is somewhat
exaggerated. The researcher considered increasing
investment in scientific development and human
capital to be the main determinants of economic
growth.
Stiglitz (2000) [11], examining the impact of the
financial sector on economic growth, concludes that
the liberalization of capital markets does not
promote economic growth, but produces instability,
which negatively affects it. The scientist sees the
cause of financial instability in short-term capital
movements, resulting in a discrepancy between
private and social returns and risks. Stiglitz notes
that capital flows are markedly procyclical,
exacerbating economic fluctuations when they do
not actually cause them.
Cameron (1967) [12] believed that financial
systems may be both growth-inducing and growth-
induced, with the key being the quality of financial
services and the efficiency of their provision.
Effective financial intermediaries are able to better
redistribute resources in the economy and
accelerate innovation development.
Empirical studies of the relationship between
financial development and economic growth in
Ukraine include the research by Paranytsya (2013)
[13], who studied the impact of the financial sector
on the industrial sector during 2000-2011. In
general, the scientist concluded that the indicator of
financial depth has a negative impact on the growth
of industrial production in Ukraine.
Ukrainian scientist Korneyev (2014) [14]
assessed the relationship between financial
development and economic growth during 1991-
2021 based on the data from 15 countries close to
Ukraine in terms of economic development, in
particular: Moldova, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania,
Estonia, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic,
Bulgaria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Poland,
Kazakhstan, and Georgia. According to his
findings, in the long run, there is a weak negative
connection between the financial development
index and economic growth, i.e. the growth of the
financial development index slows down GDP
growth per capita.
Ukrainian scientists Zveryakov and Zherdets'ka
(2017) [15] studying causal links between Ukraine's
economic growth and the development of the
banking system found that the results of empirical
research are sensitive to the stage of the economic
cycle: if the period 2008-2009 was studied, the
results showed the impact of economic
development on the banking sector, and in the
period 2006-2008, the direction of causation was
opposite.
Thus, empirical studies of the relationship
between indicators of the banking sector and
economic growth are divided into the following
main areas:
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2022.19.21
Svitlana Kachula, Maksym Zhytar,
Larysa Sidelnykova, Oksana Perchuk,
Olena Novosolova
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
225
Volume 19, 2022
- the development of the banking sector
determines economic growth;
- economic growth determines the level of the
banking sector development;
- lack of relationship between the banking sector
and economic growth.
3 Methodology
3.1 The Research Model
According to the endogenous model of economic
growth of Barro, and Sala-i-Martin (2004) [16]
GDP growth rate depends on the influence of
certain institutional factors.
The main indicator that measures economic
growth is the change in real GDP.
In our research of the relationship between
economic growth (EG) and banking sector
development, we estimate the standard growth
equation:
EG = f(BC, BD, BI)
EGt = α + β1×BCt-1 + β2×BD t-1 + β3×BI t-1 + β4×
BC_BD t-1 + εt, (1)
where EGt is economic growth measured as the
annual growth rate of the real GDP;
BCt-1 - banking credits provided to
economic sectors;
BD t-1 - banking deposits;
BI t-1 - banking investments;
BC_BD t-1 the ratio of bank credits to
deposits;
α – intercept or constant;
β1, β2, β3 – coefficients;
εt - residual errors.
The least squares method was used to construct
the regression equation.
3.2 Source of Data
The study used the data from the State Statistics
Service of Ukraine and the National Bank of
Ukraine. Real GDP growth was used as an indicator
of GDP. BC is the amount of bank credits to
residents,% of GDP. BD is the amount of bank
deposits of residents and non-residents,% of GDP.
BI is the amount of bank investments (except for
the National Bank of Ukraine) in securities of
residents, including shares,% of GDP. BC_BD is
the ratio of bank credits to deposits,%.
In our research, we estimate the standard growth
equation using a panel data set over the period of
2002-2020. Calculations of model parameters were
performed using Eviews 9.0.
4 Research Findings and Discussion
Table 2 shows the input data for the construction of
the regression model.
Table 2. Input data
GDP
BC
BD
BI
BC_BD
01.01.2003
5,3
18,7
17,8
1,8
104,9
01.01.2004
9,5
25,4
24,1
2,4
105,5
01.01.2005
11,8
25,7
25,2
2,3
101,9
01.01.2006
3,1
32,5
32,0
2,6
101,6
01.01.2007
7,6
45,1
35,7
2,5
126,2
01.01.2008
8,2
59,2
41,7
3,0
142,2
01.01.2009
2,2
77,4
42,7
3,7
181,3
01.01.2010
-15,1
79,2
41,1
3,8
192,6
01.01.2011
4,1
67,7
40,9
6,9
165,6
01.01.2012
5,5
60,9
39,9
6,2
152,7
01.01.2013
0,2
57,9
42,8
6,8
135,2
01.01.2014
0,0
62,6
48,2
9,3
129,8
01.01.2015
-6,6
65,1
45,3
9,6
143,8
01.01.2016
-9,8
49,6
38,2
5,7
129,7
01.01.2017
2,4
41,9
35,8
11,2
117,1
01.01.2018
2,5
34,1
31,2
12,1
109,3
01.01.2019
3,4
30,2
26,9
11,8
112,3
01.01.2020
3,2
24,5
27,5
9,5
89,0
01.01.2021
-4,2
22,6
32,7
14,6
69,2
Table 3 shows the result of unit root test for
selected variables.
Table 3. Augmented Dickey Fuller Test
Variables
ADF values
Test
critical
values
5% level
Sig. level
2st
difference
GDP
0.0018
-4.979623
-3.098896
BC
0.0045
-4.624554
-3.144920
BD
0.0288
-3.413150
-3.098896
BI
0.0001
-6.843625
-3.081002
BC_BD
0.0058
-4.256288
-3.081002
The result indicates that all variables are
stationary at the second difference.
Table 4 presents the descriptive statistics of the
research model. Thus, the average value of GDP
growth is 1.56%. The average ratio of bank credits
to deposits is 130.04%, and the maximum is
192.59%. The Jarque-Bera statistics are all
statistically significant at the 1% level, indicating
that the variables follow a normal distribution.
Table 5 shows the correlation matrix of the
selected variables used in the study.
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2022.19.21
Svitlana Kachula, Maksym Zhytar,
Larysa Sidelnykova, Oksana Perchuk,
Olena Novosolova
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
226
Volume 19, 2022
Table 4. Descriptive statistics
GDP
BC
BD
BI
BC_BD
Mean
1.555556
47.64183
35.38176
6.173938
130.0382
Median
2.800000
47.32853
37.01389
5.975665
127.9789
Maximum
11.80000
79.19187
48.22394
12.10203
192.5875
Minimum
-15.10000
18.70068
17.82251
1.837828
89.03309
Std. Dev.
6.823594
19.31811
8.426874
3.605987
28.82843
Skewness
-0.883852
0.081506
-0.458370
0.343005
0.704603
Kurtosis
3.381554
1.696085
2.205337
1.654234
2.643620
Jarque-Bera
2.452769
1.295076
1.103925
1.711271
1.584653
Probability
0.293351
0.523333
0.575819
0.425013
0.452790
Sum
28.00000
857.5529
636.8717
111.1309
2340.688
Sum Sq. Dev.
791.5444
6344.221
1207.207
221.0534
14128.34
Observations
18
18
18
18
18
Table 5. Correlation Matrix
GDP
BC
BD
BI
BC_BD
GDP
1.000000
-0.539221
-0.592834
-0.355003
-0.381463
BC
-0.539221
1.000000
0.906904
0.012896
0.939420
BD
-0.592834
0.906904
1.000000
0.198303
0.711317
BI
-0.355003
0.012896
0.198303
1.000000
-0.133817
BC_BD
-0.381463
0.939420
0.711317
-0.133817
1.000000
Four independent variables exhibit a negative
correlation with GDP, with the correlation between
bank deposits and GDP reporting the largest value
(0.593). The results indicate that there is a close
relationship between bank credits and bank deposits
as well as between bank credits and the ratio of bank
credits to bank deposits. It shows the existence of
multicollinearity between variables.
Fig. 4: Correlation Matrix
Table 6 presents The Regression Model Results.
Table 6. Multivariate Regression Model
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
BC
-4.306045
1.086432
-3.963475
0.0016
BD
4.393384
1.222695
3.593196
0.0033
BI
-0.594807
0.302199
-1.968260
0.0707
BC_BD
1.696958
0.435317
3.898209
0.0018
C
-165.7393
47.34508
-3.500667
0.0039
R-squared
0.733738
Mean dependent var
1.555556
Adjusted R-
squared
0.651811
S.D. dependent var
6.823594
S.E. of
regression
4.026437
Akaike info criterion
5.853774
Sum squared
resid
210.7585
Schwarz criterion
6.101100
Log
likelihood
-47.68397
Hannan-Quinn criter.
5.887877
F-statistic
8.956003
Durbin-Watson stat
2.519168
Prob(F-
statistic)
0.001061
The structural parameter estimate obtained
implies that 73,37% of GDP is explained by selected
variables. F test is 8.956 and the probability of F test
value 0.001 is less than the significant level of 5%.
Considering that the probability of all variables is
less than 5%, we can reject the null hypothesis and
accept the alternative hypothesis:
- H0: indicator equals zero (reject);
- H1: indicator does not equal zero (accept).
Table 5 reveals a significant positive relationship
between banking deposits and GDP. Thus, an
increase in banking deposits by 1 deviation will
increase GDP by 4.39:
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2022.19.21
Svitlana Kachula, Maksym Zhytar,
Larysa Sidelnykova, Oksana Perchuk,
Olena Novosolova
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
227
Volume 19, 2022
EG = α – 4,306045×BC + 4,393384×BD
– 0,594807×BI + 1,696958 × BC_BD
– 165,7393, (2)
Lending to the private sector in Ukraine is carried
out in two main areas - lending to the non-financial
sector (business entities) and lending to households.
The lack of a positive impact of bank lending on real
GDP growth can be explained by the fact that banks
in Ukraine, wanting to reduce credit risks, prefer
short-term lending to economic entities. Such credits
are normally used to cover current needs, rather than
to finance investment projects and economic
expansion. For many years, Ukrainian banks have
experienced a shortage of long-term resources
resulting in an imbalance between the terms of
attracting liabilities and placing them in assets. The
opportunities for economic development are
threatened by low level of credit activity. Lack of
own funds and limited lending lead to a reduction in
business activity, loss of markets. As a result, there
are problems with employment and job creation,
which ultimately leads to social tensions. The low
efficiency of economic entities directly affects the
amount of budget resources of the state.
At the same time, the credit portfolio of Ukrainian
banks contains a significant share of non-performing
loans, which significantly affects the financial
performance of the banking sector. Thus, the
Ukrainian banking sector is unable to perform its key
task of ensuring effective redistribution of capital in
cross-sectoral and spatial dimensions.
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test
showed the absence of autocorrelation (Table 7).
Table 7. Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM
Test
F-statistic
1.199150
Prob. F(2,11)
0.3380
Obs*R-
squared
3.222006
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.1997
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
BC
-0.161749
1.077586
-0.150103
0.8834
BD
0.258983
1.217170
0.212775
0.8354
BI
-0.124073
0.312777
-0.396682
0.6992
BC_BD
0.037755
0.431005
0.087598
0.9318
C
-5.573573
46.91334
-0.118806
0.9076
RESID(-1)
-0.373060
0.289849
-1.287084
0.2245
RESID(-2)
-0.376022
0.311061
-1.208835
0.2521
R-squared
0.179000
Mean dependent var
2.98E-14
Adjusted R-
squared
-0.268818
S.D. dependent var
3.521017
S.E. of
regression
3.966137
Akaike info criterion
5.878764
Sum
squared
resid
173.0327
Schwarz criterion
6.225019
Log
likelihood
-45.90887
Hannan-Quinn criter.
5.926508
F-statistic
0.399717
Durbin-Watson stat
1.931873
Prob(F-
statistic)
0.864286
The null hypothesis of the model is that there is
no serial correlation. The alternative hypothesis is
that exists autocorrelation. In Table 7, it failed to
reject the null hypothesis because the p-value is more
than 0.05 up to the specified lag of 2 (0,2521). The
Breusch-Godfrey Correlation LM test exhibits
probability values of 0.3380 for F-statistics and
0.1997 for R-Squared that are significant to accept
the null hypothesis implying that there is no
autocorrelation in the residuals generated from the
regression model. Therefore, the model is valid as it
is not victimized by sequential correlation throughout
the series.
At the next stage, we will perform a Granger
Causality test for estimating the relationship between
economic growth and banking sector development in
Ukraine (Table 8).
Н1: H0 hypothesis implies that banking sector
development does not Granger-cause GDP. If Prob.
is greater than 0.05 we accept H0. It means the lack
of causality. If Prob. is less than 0.05 we reject H0. It
means that there is Granger causality running from
banking sector development to economic growth
(Supply-leading relationship).
Н2: H0 hypothesis implies that GDP does not
Granger-cause banking sector development. If Prob.
is greater than 0.05 we accept H0. It means the lack
of causality. If Prob. is less than 0.05 we reject H0. It
means that there is Granger causality running from
economic growth to banking sector development
(Demand-following relationship).
The results of Granger Causality models reveal
that banking deposits Granger-cause GDP in the 1-
lag model, herewith, in the 2-lag model banking
deposits also have an impact on GDP, although
therelationship is weak. Thus, the growth of GDP in
Ukraine is facilitated by an increase in savings in the
economy.
However, banking credits provided to economic
sectors do not Granger-Cause GDP but GDP affects
banking credits in the 1-lag model. This indicates
that in Ukraine there are no effective mechanisms for
transforming the savings of the population into an
investment resource for economic development,
which means that the functioning of the banking
sector as a financial intermediary still remains
inefficient.
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2022.19.21
Svitlana Kachula, Maksym Zhytar,
Larysa Sidelnykova, Oksana Perchuk,
Olena Novosolova
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
228
Volume 19, 2022
5 Conclusion
The main purpose of this work is to study the impact
of the banking sector on the economic growth in
Ukraine. A standard growth equation using a panel
data-set over the period of 2002-2020 was used for
the empirical study. We used four variables to
measure the banking sector level: BC is the amount
of bank loans to residents, % of GDP, BD is the
amount of bank deposits of residents and non-
residents, % of GDP, BI is the amount of bank
investments (except for the National Bank of
Ukraine) in residents' securities, including shares, %
of GDP, BC_BD is the ratio of bank credits to
deposits, %. The obtained equation reveals a
significant positive relationship between banking
deposits and GDP. Thus, an increase in banking
deposits by 1 deviation will increase GDP by 4.39.
At the same time, there is a negative impact of
banking credits on GDP.
The assessment of the causal links between GDP
dynamics and indicators of the banking sector
development using the Granger Causality Test
established that banking deposits Granger-cause
GDP. Accordingly, the increase in savings
contributes to economic growth in Ukraine.
Important areas of increasing deposits by the
banking sector of Ukraine are: launching new types
of deposit services, exemption passive income from
personal income tax and military collection,
increasing the minimum amount of deposit guarantee
for individuals, which will strengthen public
confidence in banking institutions, increase reliability
of banking sector by bringing the standards of
banking in line with the requirements of Basel III.
Granger Causality Test shows that banking credits
do not Granger Cause GDP but GDP has an effect on
banking credits in the 1-lag model. This confirms the
conclusion that in Ukraine the development of the
economy affects the amount of bank lending and not
vice versa. Therefore, limiting factors of lending to
the private sector in Ukraine are significant
devaluation risks, inflation expectations, low level of
confidence in the banking system, unsatisfactory
quality of bank management in the field of loan
portfolio management, reduction of real incomes,
high probability of default crisis.
Future work concerns analysis of the relationship
between indicators of the real sector and economic
growth in Ukraine.
Table 8. Granger Causality Test
Null Hypothesis:
Lag 1
Lag 2
Lag 3
Obs
F-Statistic
Prob.
Obs
F-Statistic
Prob.
Obs
F-Statistic
Prob.
BC does not Granger Cause GDP
18
4.36852
0.0541
17
1.45292
0.2722
16
0.96517
0.4504
GDP does not Granger Cause BC
8.65521
0.0101*
2.38232
0.1345
2.14663
0.1644
BD does not Granger Cause GDP
18
6.18349
0.0252*
17
4.57628
0.0333*
16
1.79824
0.2175
GDP does not Granger Cause BD
1.96007
0.1818
0.53438
0.5994
0.11786
0.9473
BI does not Granger Cause GDP
18
1.56844
0.2296
17
0.93767
0.4184
16
0.27365
0.8430
GDP does not Granger Cause BI
1.96849
0.1810
0.91129
0.4281
0.65148
0.6017
BC_BD does not Granger Cause
GDP
18
1.33136
0.2666
17
0.56009
0.5854
16
0.67912
0.5866
GDP does not Granger Cause
BC_BD
3.77504
0.0710
1.27693
0.3142
0.98205
0.4435
* If Prob. is greater than 0.05 we accept H0
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2022.19.21
Svitlana Kachula, Maksym Zhytar,
Larysa Sidelnykova, Oksana Perchuk,
Olena Novosolova
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
229
Volume 19, 2022
References:
[1]. Bil, M. M., Mulska, O. P. (2020). Dobrobut
yak dominanta ekonomichnoho zrostannia:
kontseptualno-metodychnyi bazys. Modern
Economic, 23, 6-12. [in Ukrainian].
[2]. Banking in Europe: EBF Facts & Figures
(2020). European Banking Federation.
https://www.ebf.eu/wp-
content/uploads/2020/11/EBF_043537-
Banking-in-Europe-EBF-Facts-and-Figures-
2020.pdf.
[3]. Supervisory statistics. National Bank of
Ukraine.
https://bank.gov.ua/ua/statistic/supervision -
statist.
[4]. Schumpeter, J. (1911). The Theory of
Economic Development. (3nd ed.). Oxford
University.
[5]. Goldsmith, R. W. (1969). Financial
Structure and Economic Development. Yale
University Press.
[6]. McKinnon, R. (1973). Money and Capital in
Economic Development. Brookings
Institution.
[7]. Levine, R., Zervos, S. (1998). Stock Markets,
Banks, and Economic Growth. The American
Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 3, 537–558.
[8]. Liang, H.-Y., Reichert, A. (2006). The
Relationship Between Economic Growth and
Banking Sector Development. Banks and
Bank Systems, Vol. 1, Issue 2, 20-35.
[9]. Robinson, J. (1952). The Generalisation of
the General Theory, in the Rate of Interest,
and Other Essays. (2nd Ed.). Macmillan.
[10]. Lucas, R. (1988). On the Mechanics of
Economic Development. Journal of
Monetary Economics, Vol. 22, 3-42.
[11]. Stiglitz, J. E. (2000). Capital Market
Liberalization, Economic Growth, and
Instability. World Development, Vol. 28, No.
6, 1075-1086.
[12]. Cameron, R., Crisp, O., Patrick, H. T.,
Tilly, R. (1967). Banking in the Early Stages
of Industrialization. Oxford University Press.
[13]. Paranytsya, N. (2013). Vplyv variatsii
koniunktury finansovoho rynku na
promyslovyi sektor Ukrainy. Ekonomika ta
derzhava, 10, 90-92. [in Ukrainian].
[14]. Korneyev, M. (2014). Zasady
vzaiemozviazku mizh rivnem finansovoho
rozvytku ta ekonomichnym zrostanniam.
Investytsii: praktyka ta dosvid, 17, 37-41. [in
Ukrainian].
[15]. Zveryakov, M., Zherdets’ka, L. (2017).
Bankivskyi ta realnyi sektory ekonomiky
Ukrainy: otsinka vzaiemozviazkiv i
determinant rozvytku. Ekonomika Ukrainy,
10 (671), 31-48. [in Ukrainian].
[16]. Barro, R. J., Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995).
Economic Growth. McGraw Hill.
[17]. Cinaj, V., Meçe M., Ribaj, A., Kadrimi, I.
(2020) The Need for Improvement of
External Audit Reports of Banks (The Case
of Banks in Albania which Mainly belong to
EU Banks). WSEAS Transactions on
Environment and Development, Vol. 16,
539-54.
[18]. Chima, M., Babajide, A., Omankhanlen,
A., Adejumo, B. (2020) Development:
Unconventional Monetary Policy on Bank
Performance in Nigeria. WSEAS
Transactions on Environment and
Development, Vol. 16, 844-860.
Contribution of Individual Authors to the
Creation of a Scientific Article
(Ghostwriting Policy)
- Conceptualization: Svitlana Kachula, Maksym
Zhytar, Larysa Sidelnykova, Oksana Perchuk,
Olena Novosolova.
- Formal analysis: Maksym Zhytar.
- Methodology: Larysa Sidelnykova, Olena
Novosolova.
- Project administration: Svitlana Kachula,
Maksym Zhytar, Larysa Sidelnykova, Oksana
Perchuk, Olena Novosolova.
- Supervision: Svitlana Kachula.
- Validation: Svitlana Kachula.
- Visualization: Oksana Perchuk.
- Writing original draft: Svitlana Kachula,
Maksym Zhytar, Larysa Sidelnykova, Oksana
Perchuk, Olena Novosolova.
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
(Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0)
This article is published under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.e
n_US
WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on BUSINESS and ECONOMICS
DOI: 10.37394/23207.2022.19.21
Svitlana Kachula, Maksym Zhytar,
Larysa Sidelnykova, Oksana Perchuk,
Olena Novosolova
E-ISSN: 2224-2899
230
Volume 19, 2022